Monday, February 8, 2010
Sex ratio and competition, in China and American colleges
The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence from Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China
NBER Working Paper No. 15093 June 2009
Abstract: While the high savings rate in China has global impact, existing explanations are incomplete. This paper proposes a competitive saving motive as a new explanation: as the country experiences a rising sex ratio imbalance, the increased competition in the marriage market has induced the Chinese, especially parents with a son, to postpone consumption in favor of wealth accumulation. The pressure on savings spills over to other households through higher costs of house purchases. Both cross-regional and household-level evidence supports this hypothesis. This factor can potentially account for about half of the actual increase in the household savings rate during 1990-2007.
And here's a summary by Wei at VOX: The mystery of Chinese savings
In the meantime, there's a shortage of boys on many American college campuses: this NY Times report suggests that this has changed the dating equilibrium in ways that concern not only savings behavior, but also sex . (The story doesn't explicitly mention savings behavior, the Times is a family newspaper): The New Math on Campus
Sunday, February 7, 2010
An unexpectedly repugnant transaction: singing "My Way" in the Philippines
RepoMen (the movie)
Synopsis
In the futuristic action-thriller Repo Men, humans have extended and improved our lives through highly sophisticated and expensive mechanical organs created by a company called The Union. The dark side of these medical breakthroughs is that if you don’t pay your bill, The Union sends its highly skilled repo men to take back its property…with no concern for your comfort or survival. Jude Law plays Remy, one of the best organ repo men in the business. When he suffers a cardiac failure on the job, he awakens to find himself fitted with the company’s top-of-the-line heart-replacement…as well as a hefty debt. But a side effect of the procedure is that his heart’s no longer in the job. When he can’t make the payments, The Union sends its toughest enforcer, Remy’s former partner Jake (Academy Award® winner Forest Whitaker), to track him down. Now that the hunter has become the hunted, Remy joins Beth (Alice Braga), another debtor who teaches him how to vanish from the system. And as he and Jake embark on a chase across a landscape populated by maniacal friends and foes, one man will become a reluctant champion for thousands on the run.
Australia to Lift Ban on Xenotransplants
"Australia will join some 14 other countries -- including Japan, New Zealand and the United States -- in allowing xenotransplantation, the transplanting of animal organs and cells into humans to substitute for human organ donors and to treat diseases like diabetes.
The Australian moratorium was introduced in 2004 based on concerns that research in the area could prompt animal viruses, particularly pig viruses, to jump the species gap into humans.
The World Health Organization has called on countries to establish regulatory control and surveillance mechanisms before allowing xenotransplantations."
HT: Steve Leider
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Unraveling in college football
Unraveling has a fine sporting tradition.
Ingredient lists, and farmed fish
"Synthesized carotenoids are added to the feed of this farmed salmonoid to achieve the color that wild salmonoids develop from eating carotenoids found in their natural diet."
Some years ago, when I hosted a conference on sustainable fisheries , the fishermen present insisted that the conference dinner should be at a restaurant that served only wild fish...
Friday, February 5, 2010
Market Design conference at the NBER, October 8-9 2010
The National Bureau of Economic Research workshop on Market Design is a forum to discuss new academic research related to the design of market institutions, broadly defined. The next meeting will be held in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on Friday and Saturday, October 8-9, 2010.
We welcome new and interesting research, and are happy to see papers from a variety of fields. Participants in the past meeting covered a range of topics and methodological approaches. Last year's program can be viewed at: http://www.nber.org/~confer/2009/MDs09/program.html
The conference does not publish proceedings or issue NBER working papers - most of the presented papers are presumed to be published later in journals.
There is no requirement to be an NBER-affiliated researcher to participate. Younger researchers are especially encouraged to submit
papers. If you are interested in presenting a paper this year,
please upload a PDF or Word version by September 1, 2010 to this link http://www.nber.org/confsubmit/backend/cfp?id=MDf10
Preference will be given to papers for which at least a preliminary draft is ready by the time of submission. Only authors of accepted papers will be contacted.
For presenters and discussants in North America, the NBER will cover the travel and hotel costs. For speakers from outside North America, while the NBER will not be able to cover the airfare, it can provide support for hotel accommodation.
Please forward this announcement to any potentially interested scholars. We look forward to hearing from you.
Would Professor Moriarty have invented an eBay, a Paypal or a Craigslist?
"Renukanth Subramaniam, from north London, established the website DarkMarket, which threatened every bank account and credit card holder in Britain and caused tens of millions of pounds of losses.
It was described as a "one-stop shop" for fraudsters buying and selling stolen details such as PIN numbers, account balances, answers to account security questions and passwords for social networking websites.
"The site even offered criminal users a secure payment system, training and advertising space to sell equipment used to clone bank and credit cards.
DarkMarket operated for almost three years as a “criminals only” forum, with more than 2,500 members at its peak, who could buy up to 10 credit card numbers along with other personal information for around £30.
It was shut down after a two-year global investigation in which undercover agents from the FBI and the Serious Organised Crime Agency infiltrated the site by posing as criminals.
A spokesman for Soca called it “one of the most pernicious online criminal websites in the world” and estimated that its victims lost tens of millions of pounds.
Officials said there was a code of “honour amongst thieves” on the site.
There was a secure payment system between criminals – described by Judge John Hillen as a "PayPal for criminals". "
See my earlier post: More on Darkmarket, the Craigslist of Crime
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Mentoring (and a pet peeve: maybe women should be athena-ed?)
This is the idea behind the recent NBER report Can Mentoring Help Female Assistant Professors? Interim Results from a Randomized Trial
by Francine D. Blau, Janet M. Currie, Rachel T.A. Croson, Donna K. Ginther
Abstract: "While much has been written about the potential benefits of mentoring in academia, very little research documents its effectiveness. We present data from a randomized controlled trial of a mentoring program for female economists organized by the Committee for the Status of Women in the Economics Profession and sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the American Economics Association. To our knowledge, this is the first randomized trial of a mentoring program in academia. We evaluate the performance of three cohorts of participants and randomly-assigned controls from 2004, 2006, and 2008. This paper presents an interim assessment of the program’s effects. Our results suggest that mentoring works. After five years the 2004 treatment group averaged .4 more NSF or NIH grants and 3 additional publications, and were 25 percentage points more likely to have a top-tier publication. There are significant but smaller effects at three years post-treatment for the 2004 and 2006 cohorts combined. While it is too early to assess the ultimate effects of mentoring on the academic careers of program participants, the results suggest that this type of mentoring may be one way to help women advance in the Economics profession and, by extension, in other male-dominated academic fields. "
On a less serious note, I've always wondered whether "mentor" was the right word for an advisor for female professors, particularly if the advisor is also female. The reason is that Mentor is a male character in Homer's Odyssey who only appears to give advice in the beginning of the story. In fact, the goddess Athena is giving the advice, disguised as Mentor (presumably because advice from someone with a grey beard was given more weight in those days than from someone advising while female, however divine). So maybe, nowadays, female professors should be athena-ed?
The fertility biz: too many hazardous twins?
"...leaders of the fertility industry and government health officials say that twins are a risk that should be avoided in fertility treatments. But they also acknowledge that they have had difficulty curtailing the trend.
Many fertility doctors routinely ignore their industry’s own guidelines, which encourage the use of single embryos during the in-vitro fertilization procedure, according to interviews and industry data. Some doctors say that powerful financial incentives hold sway in a competitive marketplace. Placing extra embryos in a woman’s womb increases the chances that one will take. The resulting babies and word of mouth can be the best way of luring new business." (emphasis added)
"Doctors are also often under pressure from patients eager for children, who have incentives to gamble as well. Frequently, they have come to IVF as a last resort after years of other treatments, are paying out of pocket, and are anxious to be successful on the first try. And many do not fully understand the risks. "
A subsequent report, Grievous Choice on Risky Path to Parenthood, indicates that more multiple births result from intrauterine insemination than from in vitro fertilization, but that
"While less effective than IVF, intrauterine insemination is used at least twice as frequently because it is less invasive, cheaper and more likely to be covered by insurance, interviews and data show."
The story goes on to suggest that IU may not in fact even be cheaper, when subsequent care for compromised low-birthweight babies is taken into account.
Earlier, the Times invited several commentators to discuss the issue: Eight Is Enough
"A woman in Southern California has given birth to eight babies, the world’s second live-born set of octuplets. With advances in fertility treatment, multiple births are becoming more common, but how many are too many? What are the costs of delivering and caring for premature babies? And what about the emotional costs? We asked several experts to give us their thoughts.
Jeffrey Ecker, perinatologist
Felice J. Freyer, medical writer at The Providence Journal
Mark I. Evans, a doctor who specializes in reproductive genetic services
Ellie Tesher, the author of “The Dionnes” "
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
A famous experiment in game theory
Who knew how famous. Here's the cartoon version.
One way to think about the game is as a model of a certain kind of unraveling.
Law clerks at the Supreme Court
"During this period [1940's], some Justices seem to have forged closer bonds with their clerks than with their colleagues on the Court. A Frankfurter comment is noteworthy in this regard: “They are, as it were, my junior partners—junior only in years. In the realm of the mind there is no hierarchy. I take them fully into my confidence so that the relation is free and easy.” Law clerks made perfect colleagues, it seems, or at least better colleagues than the other Justices.
In the 1960s, Associate Justices still had only two clerks each, but a rising flood of petitions and appeals soon led most Justices to hire a third. In 1972, Justice Powell requested an additional clerk, pleading his own lack of background in criminal and constitutional law. Soon, they were all entitled to have four clerks.
The importance of the clerks over the past few decades is highlighted by J. Harvie Wilkinson’s comment that “Justice Powell often said that the selection of his clerks was among the most important decisions he made during a term.” It is nowadays taken for granted that clerks play a large role in the opinion-writing process. One Justice reportedly told a clerk who asked for elaborate guidance in drafting an opinion, “If I had wanted someone to write down my thoughts, I would have hired a scrivener.”
They cite their sources: "...we rely heavily on Todd C. Peppers, Courtiers of the Marble Palace: The Rise and Influence of the Supreme Court Clerks (2006), and Artemus Ward & David Weiden, Sorcerers’ Apprentices: 100 Years of Law Clerks at the Unite States Supreme Court (2006)."
Here are some papers on the market for law clerks, which is one of the best places to observe exploding offers.
In this recession year, there are unusually many applicants for appellate clerkships, and the ABA Journal reports Deluged with Clerkship Apps, Some Federal Judges Don’t Look at All of Them
" Although the Online System for Clerkship Application and Review allows judges to sort applications by characteristics such as law school and law journal experience, a number of judges prefer to look only at applications from individuals who come recommended by others they know or review mailed applications only..."
"Slightly more than 400,000 applications were made for 1,244 clerkships, according to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. However, many applicants submitted dozens of applications."
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Kant on compensation for organ donors
It begins with the following interesting paragraph:
"No one can be sure exactly how long there have been organ transplants, or their ethical ramifications, but they were already mentioned in Kant’s Lectures on Ethics two centuries ago. He gave the specific example of selling teeth. Kant was against them; he felt they violated his “practical imperative” to treat others as an end and not merely as a means to an end. An organ, in Kant’s view, was part of a human being, and so selling one (and, presumably, giving one) to someone else would turn a person into a means only.
Kant may have been against them, but today we are for them. Organ donations today save people’s lives, not only their bites, and massive efforts are invested to encourage people to make donations."
To my surprise when I looked at Kant's lectures, he was actually thinking of live donation, since he considers the case "if someone were to sell his sound teeth as a replacement for the decayed dentition of somebody else." This is followed immediately by his judgements on the improperness of suicide, or selling oneself into slavery. So, I'm left uncertain about how Kant would feel regarding the contemporary debate about compensation for live kidney donation.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Finance as portrayed in Victorian novels
One way to gain some intuition about this might be to study how various kinds of markets and transactions are portrayed in literature. The 2009 book Guilty Money: The City of London in Victorian and Edwardian Culture, 1815-1914 by the financial historian Ranald Michie takes a timely look back at how financial markets were imagined in an earlier century.
He looks at how finance is portrayed in novels, writing "Given the steady production of novels over this period, they also provide a means of continually monitoring changing cultural values. In contrast, other evidence of contemporary culture lacks either the continuity or depth necessary to observe trends over time. Cartoons do provide useful snapshots, such as during the Railway Mania, while there was a brief flurry of paintings with a City theme in the late 1870s, but finance only rarely lends itself to visual display..."
In the Winter 2009 issue of the Business History Review, Andrew Popp writes of the book
"The portrayals are rarely flattering: the City is a place of speculation, gambling, fraud, and deceit; financiers are not to be trusted and are often Jewish, foreign, or both; morals are currupted; true religion is impossible; old England is another, better world; the aristocracy are degraded fools; and all widowers, spinsters, and retired clergymen are innocent dupes."
...
"At the end, the mystery remains of how global financial success could coexist so happily with a fiercely antifinancial culture."
All this seems very timely. Yesterday the Times of London reported from Davos on French President Sarkozy's speech about bankers under the headline Davos: Fear and loathing in the Alps
"Sarkozy railed against the evils of unbridled capitalism and reserved special opprobrium for bankers. “To earn such enormous sums and not to bear responsibility is immoral,” he said. There was a stony silence, broken by a clutch of people who had the courage to clap.
“I thank those two members of the audience for their support,” Sarkozy said with a grin, getting a big laugh. "
Sunday, January 31, 2010
A LEAP forward at Harvard
I am writing to introduce the Lab for Economic Applications and Policy
(LEAP) at Harvard. The mission of LEAP is facilitate policy-relevant applied research, with the ultimate aim of injecting scientific evidence into policy debates.
LEAP has three components. First, we fund faculty and student research, such as pilot field experiments or empirical studies that could not be easily or quickly funded through the NSF or other grant agencies. The LEAP executive committee (Larry Katz, Guido Imbens, Brigitte Madrian, and myself) will review applications on a rolling basis and authorize funding within 4-6 weeks. The application form is available at our temporary website:
http://economics.harvard.edu/leap. Please spread the word about these new funding opportunities among your graduate students.
Second, we run a visitor program that brings in two leading researchers every semester to visit the department and teach short topics courses related to their research. This year’s visitors are Jon Skinner, Stephen Coate, Doug Staiger, and Richard Blundell.
Finally, we have a cluster of offices on the 2nd floor of Littauer that includes a lounge to facilitate interaction among faculty and students.
This space includes visitor offices as well as a rotating office used by junior faculty at HKS and HBS. We plan to hold a small inaugural reception in the lounge at 3:15 on Wed Feb. 10 before the labor/pf seminar, and invite you to join us then to learn more about LEAP.
We look forward to working with you at LEAP!
Raj Chetty
Guido Imbens
Larry Katz
Brigitte Madrian
Where repugnant transactions motivate 'honor crimes'
Jordan Times: No legal exemption for 'honour crimes': "Currently, some defendants who murder their female relatives in the name of family honour could get a minimum of six months in prison if the court decides to invoke Article 98 of the Penal Code, which stipulates a minimum of three months and a maximum of two years in prison for a murder that is committed in a fit of fury caused by an unlawful act on the part of the victim."...
"According to Momen Hadidi, head of the National Institute of Forensic Medicine, most female victims of honour crimes are found to be virgins during the autopsy. He noted that the "killers based their judgements of the victims on mere suspicions that they had improper relationships"." (In Jordan, see also a film: Crimes of Honour. )
Rights groups decry Gaza 'honor killing' "Honor killings usually target female victims of rape, women suspected of engaging in premarital sex, and women accused of adultery. They are murdered by relatives because the violation of a woman's chastity is viewed as an affront to the family's honor -- on the woman's part. In a statement, Al Mezan said honor killings were murder and "cannot be lawfully justified... the leniency with which the authority treats the perpetrators of such crimes, who usually allege that they were acting to preserve the honor of the family, has contributed to the noticeable increase in honor killings." " (see also Commodifying Honor in Female Sexuality: Honor Killings in Palestine
Al Jazeera reports on Social exclusion in southern Yemen in a video interview of girls and women living under protection.
Chechnya: “Honor killings” defended by President Kadyrov
In England (December 2009): Honour crime up by 40% due to rising fundamentalism
'Honor killings' in USA raise concerns (Nov. 2009)"Muslim immigrant men have been accused of six "honor killings" in the United States in the past two years, prompting concerns that the Muslim community and police need to do more to stop such crimes.
"There is broad support and acceptance of this idea in Islam, and we're going to see it more and more in the United States," says Robert Spencer, who has trained FBI and military authorities on Islam and founded Jihad Watch, which monitors radical Islam.
Honor killings are generally defined as murders of women by relatives who claim the victim brought shame to the family. Thousands of such killings have occurred in Muslim countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan and Palestinian territories, according to the World Health Organization.
Some clerics and even lawmakers in these countries have said families have the right to commit honor killings as a way of maintaining values, according to an analysis by Yotam Feldner in the journal Middle East Quarterly."
Update: this widely reported story came out the week following the above post: Turkish girl, 16, buried alive for talking to boys: Death reopens debate over 'honour' killings in Turkey, which account for half of all the country's murders
Corporate funding of research
Saturday, January 30, 2010
College football and the BCS as a political football
"Sen. Orrin Hatch (R.-Utah) said he received a letter from the Justice Department, in which it "outlined the inequities" of the BCS system and said that it is considering whether to investigate the BCS under the antitrust laws. The letter also said that the administration is exploring other options to address college football's postseason, including encouraging the NCAA to take control and asking the Federal Trade Commission to examine the BCS's legality under consumer-proteciton laws.
Shortly after he was elected in November 2008, Barack Obama said he would "throw my weight around a little bit" regarding college football's lack of playoff system. Currently, the BCS stages a national title game between the two teams that finish atop a compilation of polls, while other arguably deserving teams often get excluded. Mr. Hatch, whose home-state Utah Utes were left out following the 2008 season despite a perfect record, has been advocating for changes, too, writing a letter to the president in October asking for an antitrust investigation."
The article goes on to quote the BCS director as saying we've seen this before: ""There is much less to this letter than meets the eye," Mr. Hancock said. "The White House knows that with all the serious issues facing the country, the last thing they should do is increase the deficit by spending money to investigate how the college football playoffs are played. With all due respect to Sen. Hatch, he is overstating the importance of the letter he received from the Office of Legislative Affairs." "
Here are my previous posts on the BCS and the serious business of college football.
iPhone app for finding broken parking meters
The app, called NYC Broken Meters, "allows users to locate the closest broken parking meter along with detailed directions on how to get to it. This is no trivial issue. According to city ordinances, it is legal to park next to a broken meter for one hour without paying, making this application a vital one in city where parking prices can reach $500 or more a month. "
misc kidney exchange news stories, videos
Washington, D.C News - feedmap.netChris Conte, 49, a single dad who lives near Frederick, and his cousin, Pam Hull, have always been close Last week, that relationship got even closer when they took part in a large-scale kidney exchange at Georgetown University Hospital
Health Watch: DC Kidney Exchange - TopixA record-setting kidney exchange took place at Georgetown University Hospital. The exchange got many people off dialysis.
Four Days, Two Hospitals, 14 Surgeries, story in Georgetown University Hospital newsletter.
Here's a video of part of the Georgetown news conference with the patients.
Three-Way Kidney Exchange Worked NBC San DiegoDec 17, 2009 ... Three lives were saved in a medical first for San Diego County.
YouTube - Rare Kidney Exchange, interview with donors and patients in a short non-directed donor chain.
YouTube - Alliance for Paired Donation: A chain of altruism, a video presentation about Rees' now famous first non-simultaneous chain (not a gripping video, just magazine pictures, but it gives an idea of the span in time and space...).