Interview with Joel Mokyr: "I'm Not Sure Democracy Will Survive"

 Joel Mokyr, the Dutch-Israeli-American 2025 Nobel Laureate in Economics for his work on the history of technology, is interviewed in Haaretz.  He's worried about democracy, but still optimistic about technology.

'I'm Not Sure Democracy Will Survive': Israeli 2025 Nobel Laureate Fears for the West's Future  by Guy Rolnik

“I can envision a world where democracy and the legal institutions we know and cherish do not survive, while technological progress continues. And some argue that this may really be what we need, because the greatest technological challenge we face today is climate change – and it's very hard right now to claim that democracies are handling it well. By contrast, China has been manufacturing electric cars endlessly, they've been manufacturing solar panels, they've been addressing climate change."  

Would you want your daughters to live in a technologically advanced but undemocratic world?

 
"No, but I'm not sure I can prevent it. Democracy is a modern product. Most societies in the past, including those that produced Newton, Galileo and Spinoza, were not democratic societies. The notion of democracy never occurred to them. This idea was born – or at least revived – in the Enlightenment, in the 18th and 19th centuries, and even then, it took many years for democracy to become the most common form of government. 
"Democracy isn't something that keeps evolving – there have been very serious setbacks. Between the two world wars, many countries pulled back from democracy, putting in place some form of dictatorship. Even France, which protected its democracy – as soon as the Germans arrived it all collapsed. So democracy is a fragile system. I'm not sure democracy will survive, but I'm sure technological advances will."

...

“ How worried are you about the future of Israel? 

 
"This is a difficult question. The Middle East is a huge graveyard for prophecies. Compared to the Israel you were raised in during the 1950s and 1960s, its geopolitical situation is better than ever. The threat from Arab countries, which was very real in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, is practically gone. Almost all Arab countries have accepted its existence. The countries hostile to us are, in fact, Muslim non-Arab countries – which is a kind of sad progress. 
"The big problem – the huge gorilla in the room – is what nobody addresses: Israel needs to learn that it cannot succeed in doing what South Africa tried and failed to do. You cannot live indefinitely as an occupying army without morally destroying the country from within."

"Better to exchange kidneys than bombs."

 Some coffee cups  should naturally come in pairs, so that you have one for a friend in need. (These recently arrived in the mail, from Laurie Lee)

Better to exchange kidneys than bombs

I was quoted as having said that to Marco della Cava, the USA Today reporter who wrote about the first kidney exchange between Israel and the UAE.

“Better to exchange kidneys than bombs,” says Roth, adding that using computers to search the world for medical solutions radically increases the chances of patients getting help. “International boundaries are artificial markers. Kidney disease doesn’t care about that.”

Thursday, September 30, 2021 Kidney Exchange between Israel and the UAE (in USA Today, yesterday)

How three Jewish and Arab families swapped kidneys, saved their mothers and made history by Marco della Cava, USA TODAY, Wed, September 29, 2021 AM 

Universities under attack, in Israel and the U.S., by warfare and lawfare

Both the U.S. and Israel have distinguished universities, some older than the country in which they sit.

Both have universities that have recently been under attack from their enemies.

 Two stories:

This, from Haaretz:

'We Were Targeted': Iran Put Israel's Scientific Research High on Their Kill List  by Gid'on Lev and Noa Limone

“Even before the war with Iran, Israeli universities and research institutes were suffering their two toughest years ever. Hundreds of faculty members and students were killed or wounded in Gaza, while tens of thousands were diverted from their studies and research by reserve duty, or were forced to leave their homes near Gaza or the Lebanese border. 

"Compounding this were the government's efforts to curb academic freedom – and then the 12-day war with Iran raised the bar to a record high. "For the first time, we were really targeted," says the chairman of the Association of University Heads, Prof. Daniel Chamovitz. 

“This began with a direct hit on the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot southeast of Tel Aviv, and continued with two strikes on Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in the south. A week ago, Iranian missiles damaged Tel Aviv University, and during the war Tehran put out a warning suggesting it was targeting the Technion.”

####

And this, from the NYT (one of many):

Trump Administration Finds Harvard Violated Civil Rights Law  By Michael C. Bender and Alan Blinder

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem's centennial party is cancelled

The Hebrew University in Jerusalem is older than the state of Israel, and is and has been a steady anchor in difficult times.  It was scheduled to celebrate its 100th anniversary on Monday. I was planning to attend. 

But here’s the latest

" It is with deep regret that we inform you of the cancellation of this year’s Board of Governors events at the Hebrew University, in accordance with the directives of Israel’s Homefront Command and in light of the current security situation. ... We thank you for your understanding and continued support, and we join together in hoping for quieter and peaceful days ahead."

On behalf of the Hebrew University,

The Hebrew University Celebrates 100 Years Since Its Opening 

 "The Hebrew University of Jerusalem celebrates its centennial as a pioneering academic institution that has significantly shaped Israel’s intellectual, scientific, and cultural landscape. Founded by visionaries like Albert Einstein and Chaim Weizmann, the university has been a hub for groundbreaking research, producing leaders in various fields and fostering global academic collaborations. It continues to excel in innovation, diversity, and industry partnerships, reinforcing its commitment to education, scientific advancement, and societal impact as it embarks on its second century."

#####

As part of the ceremonies, the Hebrew University planned to award a number of prizes, and ten honorary doctorates (including to two economists and a computer scientist:) 

Motty Perry and Ariel Rubinstein (two great game theorists and veteran Israeli peace activists) worry about Gaza, in Haaretz

Many of the world's great democracies are going through difficult, divisive times, with a majority or near-majority of citizens worrying about how well their current or future elected political leaders represent them. Israel is no exception, with the additional agony of war.

In today's Haaretz (an Israeli newspaper which reads a lot like the New York Times in terms of its political views), Motty Perry  and Ariel Rubinstein, two  veteran peace activists (who both happen to be among the great game theorists of my generation) write about their worries, and what they know and don't know about the long war in Gaza that began over a year ago with the Oct 7, 2023 massacre of Israeli civilians by Hamas. and the war of attrition initiated by Hezbollah immediately afterwards.

Opinion | It's Impossible Not to Know What's Going on in Gaza, by Motty Perry and Ariel Rubinstein, Haaretz, Dec 24, 2024
 

"We don't purport to say anything here that hasn't already appeared in this newspaper. But someday our grandchildren will ask us about this dreadful period, and we looked for a way to voice our thoughts during these days of turmoil and confusion.

...

“ We are expressing our view because we know. Not because we were there or because of evidence that can be presented in a criminal proceeding. But because it's impossible not to know, unless we don't want to know.  
…
“ We also know because of what we don't know.
…
“ How many Hamas personnel are being held in prison facilities? We don't know.”
…
“ Everything we don't know can be known but is being kept from us. And when the things that we don't know pile up, we can't help but turn to the collective human memory about other times when things were silenced."

Converting to Judaism in the Wake of October 7th, by Jeannie Suk Gersen in the New Yorker

 I was moved by this New Yorker article by Harvard law professor Jeannie Suk Gersen

Converting to Judaism in the Wake of October 7th
For decades, I maintained a status quo of living like a Jew without being one. When I finally pursued conversion, I discovered that I was part of a larger movement born of crisis.  By Jeannie Suk Gersen

"The Talmud says that a person who comes to a court to convert is to be questioned as to his motivation and asked, “Don’t you know that the Jewish people at the present time are anguished, suppressed, despised, and harassed, and hardships are frequently visited upon them?”

IVF mistakes that would have confounded King Solomon

 IVF helps many people welcome children into their families, but also makes possible mistakes that would have confounded King Solomon.

Haaretz has the story:

Israeli Court Orders Birth Mother to Give Toddler to Biological Parents After IVF Mix-up by Chen Maanit
"A woman in her third trimester of pregnancy discovered that she had been implanted with the wrong embryo two years ago. An Israeli judge has ruled that the toddler, now two years old, be raised by her biological parents."  

 

HT: Itai Ashlagi 

*******

And another, on this side of the ocean, from the NYT:

An I.V.F. Mix-Up, a Shocking Discovery and an Unbearable Choice
Two couples in California discovered they were raising each other’s genetic children. Should they switch their girls?   By Susan Dominus

"Wolf believes that the public becomes aware of only a fraction of the errors that occur in fertility-clinic labs. In Zoë and May’s cases, as in the case of the twins carried by the Korean American woman in New York, the mistake was apparent because the children were a different race from the birth parents. In most instances, parents who accept and bond with their baby may never suspect something is wrong. Even when discovered, such mistakes rarely make the news. “Most of my cases you never hear about, because we settle them before we file lawsuits,” Wolf said. “And the settlement agreements have confidentiality agreements, because the clinics want to ensure that there will be no negative publicity as a result of its error.”

"I.V.F. procedures are underregulated relative to most medical procedures, says Dov Fox, a law professor at the University of San Diego with a focus on bioethics. States do not mandate that fertility clinics report preventable and damaging mistakes when they happen, as is required of hospitals. Some emblematic problems, Fox told me, included clinics or labs relying on pen-and-paper labeling systems and faulty screening measures; Wolf cited a failure of clinic employees to respond to alarms on the freezers that store embryos. “I sometimes think of our lawsuits as the policing of the fertility industry,” Wolf said, “because nobody else is holding them accountable.”

"Now heavily dominated by private equity, the industry is rife with for-profit, high-volume fertility clinics operating in a regulatory dead zone. Oversight of fertility clinics has been limited, Fox said, because of the challenges it poses politically: Although many conservatives would like to impose restrictions, including limiting the number of embryos a lab can create, they have historically not wanted to jeopardize efforts to restrict abortion by also attacking I.V.F., which is broadly popular. Many Democrats, meanwhile, have been reluctant to regulate the industry for fear of opening the door to restrictions that might, for example, limit who is eligible for I.V.F. (as in some countries, where gay couples are excluded). Fox expects that the overturning of Roe v. Wade will lead to new scrutiny of I.V.F., which might ultimately threaten its wide availability."

October 7, 2023

 There aren't enough days in the year to remember all of important history by naming a day, but some days stand out. The oldest one I know is the 9th day of the month of Av in the Jewish calendar, Tisha b'Av. 

But October 7 is likely to be remembered for a long time, an unimaginable day whose dire consequences are still unfolding.

The Genesis Prize Foundation remembers the first anniversary with these videos:

"This week we mark a full year since October 7 when Hamas murdered 1,200 innocent people in Israel and dragged over 200 hostages into Gaza. And while media attention has shifted to Iran and Lebanon, it is important that the world not forget that over 100 hostages still remain in captivity in unbearable conditions in Gaza. "Our foundation will not stop speaking out until they are all home. "As we all struggle with how to cope with this unimaginable reality, one thing we can do is continue to share the stories of those directly impacted, and keep the plight of the hostages top of mind for communities around the world. "Please watch and share these documentaries about October 7.

 

Screams Before Silence Sheryl Sandberg https://youtu.be/zAr9oGSXgak?feature=shared

Coming to Kill You Israel News 13https://youtu.be/dd-86D__zSk?feature=shared

 

October 7th, 2023 Dan Gordon https://www.tbn.org/programs/october-7th-2023

Facts – October 7 War Izzy Stream https://www.streamisrael.tv/facts

 

"May the new year bring peace, health, and the return of our stolen loved ones. Shana Tova to you and your families. "The Genesis Prize Foundation"

##########

This from The Telegraph:

‘Not one girl could be shown to her parents’: The horrors of Oct 7 – as told by the survivors

In a heartbreaking dispatch to mark the anniversary, witnesses recall the heroism of victims and the true depravity of the attack.  by Allison Pearson  

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The New Yorker has this story:

A Year After October 7th, a Kibbutz Survives. In Be’eri, where more than a hundred people were killed and thirty taken captive, former residents are attempting to rebuild. By Ruth Margalit  October 6, 2024

In the same issue is this poem by the Gazan poet Mosab Abu Toha about deaths there:

Under the Rubble

Published in the print edition of the October 7, 2024, issue.

Kidney exchange chains between Israel and Cyprus

 Israel Hayom has the story. (Itai Ashalgi's software gets a shout-out):

Unprecedented Israel-Cyprus kidney exchange saves 8 lives. Cross-border medical collaboration showcases the power of organ donation and transplant innovation.    By  Eleanor Favriker/Makor Rishon

"In a remarkable display of international medical cooperation, eight kidney transplants have been performed across Israel and Cyprus as part of a pioneering cross-border organ exchange program. The intricate operation, involving multiple hospitals and a meticulously coordinated logistics effort, was made possible by two altruistic donors who approached the National Transplant Center, initiating a "transplant chain."

"The joint operation, conducted on Monday, saw five procedures taking place in Israel and three in Cyprus. The National Transplant Center matched the pairs using specialized computer software, drawing from an international database containing incompatible family member pairs.

"Starting at 5:00 a.m., kidneys harvested at Hadassah and Soroka hospitals were transported by ambulance to the airport and flown to Cyprus. Concurrently, another kidney from Hadassah was transferred to Soroka, while one from Beilinson was sent to Hadassah. At 2:00 p.m., two kidneys arrived from Cyprus, destined for Beilinson and Hadassah. By 6:00 p.m., all transplants were completed in both countries, with recipients in good condition and new kidneys functioning.

"In Israel, three transplants occurred at Hadassah, one at Beilinson, and one at Soroka, with an additional Hadassah transplant performed a day earlier. In total, Israel saw 10 surgeries: five kidney removals and five transplants.

"Professor Shlomo Mor Yosef, chairman of the Steering Committee, said, "I commend the cooperation between Israel and Cyprus. These exchanges provide solutions for patients with antibodies. I urge every family with a patient needing a kidney transplant to join the exchange database if no match is found among them."

"Dr. Tamar Ashkenazi commented, "This marks our first two-way kidney exchange with Cyprus. Their single transplant center in Nicosia performed six surgeries in one day, supported by a surgeon from England. I'd like to thank Ms. Rona Simon, who manages our exchange database, facilitating over 60 successful cross-transplants annually. Israel maintains similar programs with the Czech Republic, Austria, and the United Arab Emirates."

Kidney Exchange among Austria, Czech Republic, and Israel

 Here's an article that includes description of the joint Austria, Czech Republic and Israel kidney exchanges.

Böhmig, Georg A., Thomas Müller‐Sacherer, and Ondrej Viklicky. "Kidney Paired Donation—European Transnational Experience in Adults and Opportunities for Pediatric Kidney Transplantation." Pediatric Transplantation 28, no. 6 (2024): e14840.

"One approach to expanding the pool, akin to deceased donor kidney transplantation through the transnational Eurotransplant Organization, involves the establishment of cross-border KPD joint programs. In Europe, several joint programs have successfully conducted such transplants, one of which is the Scandiatransplant Exchange Program, inaugurated in 2019. As of February 2023, this program has facilitated 49 transplantations [29]. Another transnational initiative, the focus of this article, is the joint program involving Austria, the Czech Republic, and Israel. This collaboration resulted in the first transnational live donor kidney exchange in Europe, a two-way exchange between Vienna and Prague in 2017 [30].

"The Vienna and Prague Kidney Paired Donation (KPD) programs were merged in 2015 following a consensus on medical, psychological, and immunological requirements [23]. ... Both programs agreed on a binational algorithm, utilizing a computer algorithm developed in Prague. This algorithm not only facilitates the calculation of ABO-incompatible combinations but also includes the option of Non-Directed Altruistic Donor (NEAD) chains initiated by altruistic donors [23].

...

"Recent developments in the transnational program include its expansion to additional centers. Prague initiated a transnational cooperation with the national KPD program in Israel, successfully conducting the first ring exchange in 2019. In this context, transplantations cannot be realized simultaneously due to the financial burden associated with the need for two private flights. Later, this cooperation extended to the Vienna center, leading to the first exchange between Vienna and Israel in 2022, involving a simultaneous three-way chain with one Vienna and two Israel pairs. Innsbruck has also joined the international KPD program as a second Austrian center, participating in local exchanges and one 2-way exchange with Prague (2020). A good example of different approaches in timing of surgeries among Prague and Israel centers (non-simultaneous) in one hand and Vienna (simultaneous surgeries) in the other hand is Czech-Austrian-Israel international NEAD chain initiated in Prague which has lasted for several years, prioritized smaller exchanges and has not been terminated so far. Such a NEAD chain used both altruistic and bridge donors in Prague. Terminated NEAD chain may allow to prioritize patient at special need. For example, our short 3-country NEAD chain was terminated to offer transplantation to a previous kidney donor who donated 20 years ago but unfortunately developed end stage kidney disease. Such approach may have implications also in pediatrics."

Surrogacy in Israel

In Israel, where commercial surrogacy is legal, surrogates are more and more coming from educated and religious communities. 

Haaretz has the story:

Married, Educated, Not in It for the Money: The New Profile of Israeli Surrogate Mothers. Who are the Israeli women who wish to be pregnant and give birth for others? The answer to that question has changed dramatically over the past decade  by Ronny Linder

""I'm a little tired of women telling me how disadvantaged all surrogates are, so I thought of starting a thread just for surrogates, with: name + our occupation + town. I'll go first." This is what one moderator of an open Facebook surrogacy group wrote, about a year ago – and the responses came pouring in: a computer programmer from Tekoa, a sociolinguistics Ph.D. from Kfar Sava, a school principal from Jerusalem, a postgraduate student of gender studies from Hatzeva, a lawyer from Gush Etzion, an oncology nurse from Mevasseret Zion and so on and on.

"The post and the responses to it, written in reaction to the prevalent perception that views surrogacy as bearing the potential for exploitation of disadvantaged women who must "hire out" their uteruses for money, largely reflects the great transformation, over a few short years, in the profile of surrogate mothers and of the entire field in Israel. 

...

"Since the surrogacy law was legislated in 1996, almost 1,300 children have been born in Israel through surrogacy procedures. In recent years, the number has averaged around 80 children per year. Data collected by the Health Ministry about surrogate mothers between 2022 and 2023, reveals the changes in the profiles of women who choose to take on the task, as compared with the last study, in 2010. That study, which reviewed surrogate mothers during the years 1996-2010, was conducted by Etti Samama as part of the work for her doctoral thesis in health-system management at Ben-Gurion University. To compile recent data, Adam Ringel and Eti Dekel, for many years the national supervisor of the surrogacy law, collected information from 246 cases – 90 percent of the cases filed with committee in the last couple of years. 

...

"The data indicate a fundamental change in the socio-economic status of women who choose to become surrogates. In terms of education, while in 2010 the majority of surrogate mothers had a high school education (70 percent), nearly one fifth (18 percent) had less than 12 years of schooling, and only 7 percent had academic degrees. Less than a decade and a half later, however, the picture has been transformed: 65 percent of surrogate mothers have an academic degree, and only about one fifth have only a high school education (14 percent) or less than 12 years of schooling (8 percent). The proportion of those with academic degrees among surrogates is significantly higher than that group's share of the population, which is 38 percent.

"A similarly changed picture emerges in terms of employment: In 2023, only 2.5 percent of surrogates were unemployed, compared with 25 percent in 2010. No less interesting is the finding regarding geographical dispersal of surrogates, as compared with the general public: In recent years, almost half (45 percent) of them come from kibbutzim, moshavim and organized communities – compared with just 12 percent in 2010.

...

"An absolute majority of surrogates come from [the world of] religious Zionism, on the one hand, or are secular women from kibbutzim and other organized communities, on the other," Ringel elucidates. "These two groups are seemingly worlds apart, but in the world of surrogacy, you see the resemblance between them. These are independent, strong women, with a fully developed values-based worldview, who are looking to do something big for others, who see surrogacy as a calling, as female empowerment and as the ultimate giving."

"What happened between 2010 and 2024 that led to such dramatic change in the profile of surrogate mothers? Experts in the field ascribe the change mainly to the opening up of the option for married women to become surrogates, beginning in 2010 – a move that significantly increased the pool of potential surrogates and also changed their socio-economic backgrounds.

"This is indeed a transformation: in 2010, all surrogates were unmarried women, 75 percent of them divorced, the rest single (and a few widows). In contrast, in 2022-2023, 80 percent of surrogates were married or in relationships, and only 20 percent were divorced or single.

...

 "There was always an altruistic element with surrogates, but ever since married and more affluent women entered the picture – the economic part became more of a bonus, rather than the main motive," Dekel points out."

Kidney exchange between Israel and the Czech Republic

 The Jerusalem Post reports another kidney exchange between Israel and the Czech Republic:

Miraculous kidney donation between friends spans continents and save lives. The complex and sensitive cross-continental operation required coordination between senior officials in both countries.   https://www.jpost.com/international/article-804396   By JERUSALEM POST STAFF  MAY 30, 2024 18:39

"it was soon discovered that Glaor was not a direct match for a transplant, and their medical details were entered into the National Transplant Center's cross-matching database. The entry resulted in an international kidney transplant exchange in which Glaor donated his kidney to a patient in the Czech Republic, and the wife of the Czech patient donated her kidney to Shitrit.

"The complex and sensitive cross-continental operation required coordination between senior officials in both countries, with an emphasis on the precise timing of operating rooms, flights, and quick security and customs arrangements.

"The operation began in the middle of the night at the Hadassah University Medical Center in Jerusalem’s Ein Kerem. It was managed and coordinated by the National Transplant Center.

"Dr. Tamar Ashkenazi, director of the National Transplant Center, was in charge of coordinating the transplant.  Alongside her on the flight to Prague were coolers containing two kidneys that were removed overnight from two Israeli donors at Hadassah Ein Kerem, which were intended for transplantation in two Czech patients. 

"In the evening, at around 10 p.m., the transplants in Israel were completed, and the Czech kidneys successfully functioned in the bodies of the Israeli recipients, as reported similarly from Prague regarding the Israeli kidneys that were transplanted in the Czech Republic.

""We planned the process precisely, and were in constant contact with our counterparts in the Czech Republic regarding the surgical issues. Every action that takes place is critical and impacts the continuation of the operation," said Dr. Ashraf Imam, a senior surgeon in the transplant unit at Hadassah, who participated in the transplant operation."

Israel Institute for Advanced Studies summer school in economics (and cs)

 Here's the announcement for this summer's summer school in Economics in Jerusalem (with the program and list of speakers updated on April 8).

The 34th Advanced School in Economic Theory and Computer Science Sun, 23/06/2024 to Thu, 27/06/2024

General Director: Eric Maskin, Harvard University

Organizers: Elchanan Ben-Porath, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Michal Feldman, Tel Aviv University, Noam Nisan, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Contemporary economic theorists and computer scientists have a large research agenda in common. Topics of mutual interest include the design of contracts, auctions, and information structures, as well as the use of algorithms to achieve fair allocations. This summer school will explore all these topics and more

Speakers:

Fair division of indivisible items: Uriel Feige, Weizmann Institute of Science

Algorithmic contract design: Michal Feldman, Tel Aviv University

Multidimensional mechanism design: Sergiu Hart, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Revenue maximization from samples: Yannai Gonczarowski, Harvard University

Fairness in learning and prediction: Katrina Ligett, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Matching markets: From theory to practice: Assaf Romm, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Economic aspects of Blockchains: Aviv Zohar, Assaf Romm The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Anger and Sadness in Tel Aviv

Saturday, on the last night of my just-ended visit to Israel, I attended two adjacent mass public events. 

One was a political demonstration against the leadership of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and his governing coalition. The other was a vigil for the kidnapped hostages, living and dead.

In each of these two events, the one Hebrew word you heard more than any other was NOW (עכשיו).  As in "Elections NOW!"  or "Bring them home NOW!"

In the political demonstration, the primary mood expressed by the speakers was anger.  In the vigil, it was sadness.

Below some pictures and a video of a speech with added subtitles in English translation.

From the demonstration:

The signs say "Elections Now!"

The sign (addressed to Bibi) says: "You are the boss.
You are guilty"

From the vigil for the hostages:

Prepared to welcome the hostages home  to Shabbat dinner

x

And one bonus picture, on the road connecting the two gatherings, from the Women Who Wage Peace