This morning the Washington Post published my op-ed online (which is scheduled to appear in the print edition on Sunday). 800 words is hardly enough to explain why I think what I do...I could write a whole book about that.
But here's the op-ed:
With 90,000 patients waiting for a kidney, compensating living donors would save lives.
You could hardly have two more different books on behavioral economics, both by important contributors to the field. Chater and Loewenstein regret their part in what they feel has turned into a scam, while Thaler and Imas celebrate how it has gone from victory to victory.
It's On You. How they rig the rules and we get the blame for society's problems
by
Nick Chater and George Loewenstein
"Two decades ago, behavioral economics burst from academia to the halls of power, on both sides of the Atlantic, with the promise that correcting individual biases could help transform society. The hope was that governments could deploy a new approach to addressing society’s deepest challenges, from inadequate retirement planning to climate change—gently, but cleverly, nudging people to make choices for their own good and the good of the planet.
"It was all very convenient, and false. As behavioral scientists Nick Chater and George Loewenstein show in It’s On You, nudges rarely work, and divert us from policies that do. For example, being nudged to switch to green energy doesn’t cut carbon, and it distracts from the real challenge of building a low-carbon economy.
"It’s on You shows how the rich and powerful have repeatedly used a clever sleight of hand: blaming individuals for social problems, with behavioral economics an unwitting accomplice, while lobbying against the systemic changes that could actually help. As two original proponents of the nudge principle, Nick and George now argue that rather than trying to “fix” the victims of bad policies, real progress requires rewriting the social and economic rulebook for the common good."
######
The Winner's Curse: Behavioral Economics Anomalies, Then and Now
by Richard H. Thaler and Alex Imas
"Nobel Prize winner Richard H. Thaler and rising star economist Alex O. Imas explore the past, present, and cutting-edge future in behavioral economics in The Winner’s Curse.
"Why do people cooperate with one another when they have no obvious motivation to do so? Why do we hold on to possessions of little value? And why is the winner of an auction so often disappointed?
"Over thirty years ago, Richard H. Thaler introduced readers to behavioral economics in his seminal Anomalies column, written with collaborators including Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. These provocative articles challenged the fundamental idea at the heart of economics that people are selfish, rational optimizers, and provided the foundation for what became behavioral economics. That was then.
"Now, three decades later, Thaler has teamed up with economist Alex O. Imas to write a new book with an original and creative format. Each chapter starts with an original Anomaly, retaining the spirit of its time stamp. Then, shifting to the present, the authors provide updates to each, asking how the original findings have held up and how the field has evolved since then.
"It turns out that the original findings not only hold up well, but they show up almost everywhere. Anomalies pop up in people’s decisions to save for retirement and how they carry outstanding credit card debt. Even experts fail to optimize. The key concept of loss aversion explains missed putts by PGA pros and the selection of which stocks to sell by portfolio managers. In this era of meme stocks and Dogecoin, it is hard to defend the view that financial markets are highly efficient. The good news, however, is that the anomalies have gotten funnier."
Grace Guan defended her Ph.D. dissertation this past Friday.
Welcome to the club, Grace.
Here's my earlier post about one of the papers she spoke about--for extra credit, see if you can identify four of her coauthors in the above post-defense photo:
This is a segment exploring the latest papers in climate finance and banking.
In low-income countries, many markets, including credit, insurance, land and information, are frictional or missing altogether.
Empirical Market Design is an emerging research field, blending the theoretical underpinnings of market design with novel empirical approaches that are sometimes related to those used applied…
Market failures are present in many markets, and governments throughout the world design interventions to address them.
The idea of this session is to bring together microeconomic theorists working on dynamic games and contracts with more applied theorists working in macro, finance, organizational economics, and…
This session will bring together researchers from political science and economics who apply economic theory to the study of politics.
This workshop will be dedicated to research that studies how gender influences economic outcomes and decision making.
This session will bring together researchers working on issues at the intersection of psychology and economics.
This workshop is dedicated to advances in experimental economics combining laboratory and field-experimental methodologies with theoretical and psychological insights on decision-making, strategic…
This session discusses the latest advances in theoretical and empirical issues related to financial regulation, defined broadly.
This session invites scholars and policymakers to explore the multifaceted dimensions of China's evolving economy and its global interconnections.
The idea of this session is to bring together labor economists and macroeconomists with interests in labor markets with two goals.
The session will cover recent work on the causes and effects of changes in volatility and uncertainty in the aggregate economy, which is incredibly topical given the ongoing domestic and wider…
This sessions aims to bring together scholars, both young and established, in as diverse fields as labor economics, public economics, industrial organization, and macroeconomics, who are…
The past five years have seen an explosion of work in macroeconomics using the “sequence-space” approach to solving and analyzing models.
Several countries have now record high levels of public debt that are comparable to the ones inherited from WWII.
In March, JAMA publishing a rather unconvincing but passionate attack on a modest proposal to incentivize non-directed kidney donors. The editors presumably received many letters in reply (and declined to publish mine*), but have now published one (to which I was alerted by Frank McCormick).
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*Earlier:
Professor Achim Wambach writes with news of a job opening in market design:
Professor of Economics, Market Design (W3)
Department of Economics, University of Mannheim
"In a joint appointment process, the Department of Economics at the School of Law and Economics at the University of Mannheim and the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim are looking to fill the position of
Professor of Economics, Market Design (W3).
The job holder will be assigned to the Centre for European Economic Research immediately upon her/his appointment. She/he will remain a member of the department with a reduced teaching obligation of two credit hours per term (so called Jülicher Modell). The position is permanent.
We are looking for an individual who, thanks to her/his outstanding scientific qualifications, will strengthen both institutions' competencies in the analysis of markets and market design. She/he has proven her/his expertise in the game-theoretical analysis of market rules with a particular focus on auction or matching markets. The successful candidate has an affinity to field experiments and applied research.
The job holder will lead the Research Department 'Market Design' at ZEW, conduct research in market design and publish this research in internationally leading academic journals. She/he will also be responsible for third-party fundraising. The successful candidate should have experience in policy-advising, particularly in the practical application of market design. The position requires a distinguished academic record, demonstrated by high-level publications in international economic journals, and ideally experience by leading policy advisory projects. The candidate should also possess the ability to lead larger research teams and to effectively communicate research findings to a broader audience, including policymakers and the general public."
Evidently the NSF is taking up too much government real estate, here's the story from (appropriately enough) Scientific American:
Trump Administration Ousts National Science Foundation from Headquarters Building. Employees at the National Science Foundation say they’ve been blindsided by a plan for the Department of Housing and Urban Development to take over their offices. By Robin Bravender & E&E News
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I certainly hope that the new occupants will treasure the building's U.S. National Science Foundation HISTORY WALL
I'm particularly fond of tile 45 of the mosaic that makes up this mural: "45. Breakthroughs in economics inspired new software that streamlines organ matches like kidney exchanges."
Kidney exchange on the NSF History Wall
Here's the description of the full history wall, and all the images.
U.S. National Science Foundation HISTORY WALL
A NOTE FROM THE DIRECTOR
"This beautiful mural provides an amazing visual history of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), spanning nearly 7 decades of scientific discovery and innovation and depicting NSF’s impact on the nation. This is a legacy that belongs to all of us, and to the nation.
"It is a sampling of NSF’s impact through curiosity-driven, discovery-based exploratory research and use-inspired, solutions-focused translational research. This mural epitomizes the mission of NSF — “To promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; to secure the national defense.”
.
1. From biochemistry to weather prediction, supercomputing and
supercomputing centers maintain U.S. leadership in S&T.
2. NSF’s next generation Arctic Research Vessel, RV Sikuliaq.
3. Carbon nanotubes have novel properties yielding new applications.
4. PCR, essential to genomics, was developed from Yellowstone microbes.
5. NSF research helps predict and prevent disasters such as wildfires.
6. Brain-machine interfaces, like retinal prostheses, promise new
applications in health and communications.
7. Shake tables, like this one from the Network for Earthquake
Engineering Simulation, protect lives and property.
8. Geckos inspire the development of polymers and directional
adhesion materials.
9. NSF provides funding to start-ups like Google.
10. The first permanent telescope at Kitt Peak opened in 1960.
11. Understanding the biology and epidemiology of vector-borne illnesses
is the subject of ongoing multidisciplinary research.
12. Ice cores provide an environmental look back in time.
13. Shows like Peep and the Big Wide World improve pre-school education.
14. With the submersible Alvin, researchers first discovered life in the extreme
environment of deep-sea vents.
15. S&E Indicators provide a broad base of quantitative information
on U.S. and international science and engineering enterprise.
16. NSF and NSB recognize excellence with the Alan T. Waterman Award,
the Vannevar Bush Award, and the National Medal of Science.
17. NSF is a leader in Arctic research.
18. NSF-funded search & rescue robots improve disaster response.
19. NSF computing history is illustrated here by PLATO (Programmed
Logic for Automated Teaching Operations) in 1969.
20. An atomic-resolution structure of the HIV capsid.
21. NSF promotes informal scientific education and literacy through
its support of programming like NOVA.
22. NSF’s SBIR program strengthens the role of small business in federally
funded R&D, as it did in cellular technology in the 1990s.
23. From CSNET in 1981, to NSFNET and beyond, NSF has supported
innovations that helped create the Internet of today.
24. NSF is a leader in Antarctic research.
25. The LIGO observatories confirmed Einstein’s predicted gravity waves.
26. The bioluminescent green fluorescent protein (GFP) from jellyfish is
a powerful cellular biology research tool.
27. Sequencing the genome of Arabidopsis thaliana paved the way for a
deeper understanding food crops and other plants.
28. The Graduate Research Fellowship Program is NSF’s longest
continuously operating program.
29. NSF support of scanning and RFID technologies, like bar codes, has
helped revolutionize commerce and connectedness.
30. Mathematics is fundamental to S&T.
31. NSF’s First Grant Book recorded awards from FY1952-FY1959.
32. NSF support of archaeology enhances our understanding of where
we come from and who we are.
33. NSF researchers are studying the global decline in amphibian populations.
34. In electronics and material science, graphene’s unique electrical
and physical properties promise new breakthroughs.
35. Vannevar Bush’s vision made NSF’s founding possible.
36. Doppler-On-Wheels studies extreme weather like tornados.
37. NSF supports GPS technology, such as the National Center for
Geographic Information and Analysis.
38. Neuroscience is a major area for NSF.
39. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) collects
environmental data via distributed sensor networks.
40. This Design Squad App illustrates NSF’s support of informal education
and advanced touch-screen technology.
41. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory, located beneath the
US South Pole Station, studies the nature and properties of these particles.
42. NSF supports potentially transformative technologies like Virtual Reality.
43. Robobees are innovative autonomously-flying microrobots that
have potential impacts in many applications.
44. Quantum phenomena can yield novel technologies in computing
and communications.
45. Breakthroughs in economics inspired new software that streamlines
organ matches like kidney exchanges.
46. The Very Large Array is a component of the National Radio
Astronomy Observatory.
47. NSF was key to the development of the MRI, now an essential health tool.
48. This block-sorting robot tests how autonomous systems discern
their environment.
49. NSF support led to the study and systematization of ASL.
50. 3D printing has impacted manufacturing, design and the arts.
51. NSF supports research into bee colony decline and efforts to
save the bees.
52. The High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for
Environmental Research is a modified jet that studies
the atmosphere.
53. Large-scale computing simulates complex systems like hurricanes.
54. Large-scale changes to seawater chemistry can damage coral reefs
and more.
55. Biometric identification—whether fingerprints, iris scans, or DNA—
is essential to security and forensics.
56. The social sciences, like linguistics, improve our understandings
of ourselves and our society.
57. In 2019, a global network of telescopes (Event Horizon Telescope)
with major NSF support captured the first ever image of a black hole.
58. With support for programs like The Magic School Bus, NSF supports
elementary and informal STEM education.
59. Robotics and automation, such that in this self-driving car,
promise to transform transport and more.
60. In 1991, NSF-funded researchers discovered the first of three
extra solar planets by using radio telescopes.
61. The bacterial enzyme, CRISPR, is revolutionizing biotech and health.
62. The 2008 Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station is NSF’s latest
Antarctic research station.
Mural credit: Nicole R. Fuller
Some people support both IVF and abortion (women's right to choose) and some people oppose both (embryos are people), but many oppose abortion but support IVF. Here's an article that focuses on some ethical distinctions (is the intention to have a child or not), and also on some political ones (IVF patients are on average more affluent than abortion patients).
Watson K. Rethinking the Ethical and Legal Relationship Between IVF and Abortion. JAMA. Published online May 22, 2025. doi:10.1001/jama.2025.6733
"US voters have elected a president who promised he would make the government or private insurance cover in vitro fertilization (IVF), yet takes credit for reversing Roe v Wade. These positions highlight a question that has lingered since US IVF practice began in 1981: are hospital and governmental policies that support IVF but do not support abortion ethically consistent? And if not, why is this division so common?
"Those who see IVF and abortion as ethically distinct often focus on differences in intention and outcome—having a baby vs avoiding having a baby. Others see them as comparable practices because both destroy embryos. I offer a third perspective, which is that abortion and IVF are comparable practices because both are family-building medical interventions; therefore, support for IVF access ought to lead to support for abortion access.
"Abortion was a federal constitutional right until 2022, and IVF was subject to state regulation like the rest of medicine. Yet constitutional protection did not stop many states from heavily regulating abortion, and IVF rarely faced governmental limits. A stark example of their disparate treatment occurred shortly after Roe v Wade was reversed when the traditionally antiabortion state of Indiana began its statute criminalizing abortion provision by clarifying “This article does not apply to in vitro fertilization” (IN Code §16-34-1-0.5 [2024]).
"Yet like abortion, IVF also involves embryo death.
...
" differences in patient income, race, age, and education also suggest a stark difference in political power between the constituencies invested in IVF and abortion. Eighty-one percent of fertility patients have household incomes of more than $100 000 and 75% are White6; 72% of abortion patients have incomes less than 200% of the federal poverty line and 59% are Black or Latinx.3 Sixty-four percent of IVF patients are 35 years or older,7 while 70% of abortion patients are in their teens or 20s.3 Fourteen percent of births to women with a college or graduate degree were conceived with the use of assisted reproductive technology, but only 1.5% of births to women with some college or less were conceived with assisted reproductive technology in 2023.8 In contrast, 77% of abortion patients have some college or less.9 (There are no data documenting how many IVF patients deferred their childbearing by having an abortion when they were younger, or how many IVF patients later abort to decrease a multiple pregnancy or avoid unexpected medical problems.)
"Entities involved in providing IVF also have financial interests in preserving the legality of a practice with a median cost of $19 200 per cycle.6 Infertility care generates approximately $8 billion per year in gross revenues in the US.10 High operating margins have drawn private equity investors to many private fertility practices, and IVF is lucrative for hospitals and physicians."
Borrowers beware. Medical procedures that are often not covered by insurance can be paid by credit card. Special medical credit cards offer an extended interest-free period. But when that period expires, a high interest rate is applied back to the time the card was charged (i.e. interest is charged for the period that would have been interest free if the balance had been paid in full.)
Bruch, Joseph Dov, Cal Chengqi Fang, and Betsy Q. Cliff. "Prevalence of Medical Credit Cards by Specialty." In JAMA Health Forum, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. e250174-e250174. American Medical Association, 2025.
"Financial institutions are increasingly marketing medical credit cards as a solution to rising medical debt.1 Medical credit cards offer deferred interest terms, allowing patients to avoid interest payments for a promotional period of 6 to 18 months. However, if the balance remains unpaid by the end of this period, accrued interest from the start date is added to the balance.2 While the promotional period has the potential to allow relatively frictionless borrowing and alleviate financial burdens for patients, the average annual percentage rate on medical credit cards is 26.99%, which tends to be higher than other payment types. A recent survey found that about a quarter of patients who financed through medical credit cards did not pay off the balance in time to avoid the deferred interest.3 Medical credit cards were used to pay $23 billion in health care expenses, resulting in $1 billion in deferred interest payments from 2018 to 2020.2"
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