Will artificial intelligence disrupt labor markets as much as electricity and computers have?

 Here's a paper that takes a long view of American occupations (and concludes that it's too early to tell about ai...)

TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION IN THE LABOR MARKET by David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, and Lawrence H. Summers, NBER Working Paper 33323 , January 2025, http://www.nber.org/papers/w33323 

ABSTRACT: This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). We measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century. We find, perhaps surprisingly, that the pace of change has slowed over time. The years spanning 1990 to 2017 were less disruptive than any prior period we measure, going back to 1880. This comparative decline is not because the job market is stable today but rather because past changes were so profound. General-purpose technologies (GPTs) like steam power and electricity dramatically disrupted the twentieth-century labor market, but the changes took place over decades. We argue that AI could be a GPT on the scale of prior disruptive innovations, which means it is likely too early to assess its full impacts. Nonetheless, we present four indications that the pace of labor market change has accelerated recently, possibly due to technological change. First, the labor market is no longer polarizing-- employment in low- and middle-paid occupations has declined, while highly paid employment has  grown. Second, employment growth has stalled in low-paid service jobs. Third, the share of  employment in STEM jobs has increased by more than 50 percent since 2010, fueled by growth in software and computer-related occupations. Fourth, retail sales employment has declined by 25 percent in the last decade, likely because of technological improvements in online retail. The postpandemic labor market is changing very rapidly, and a key  question is whether this faster pace of change will persist into the future.

Philipp Strack, 2024 Clark Medalist by Drew Fudenberg, in the JEP

 Here's a celebration of Philipp Strack, the Yale economist who won the 2024 Clark Medal of the American Economic Association.

Philipp Strack, 2024 Clark Medalist  by Drew Fudenberg,  Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 39, no. 1, Winter 2025, (pp. 225–46)

Here are the first and last paragraphs:

"Philipp Strack is creative, insightful, and skillful, which has allowed him to make major contributions to many areas of microeconomic theory, including behavioral economics, information acquisition and learning, and mechanism design. Some of these papers provide a new understanding of important economics phenomena, others introduce results and techniques that will be used for years to come, and some of the papers do both. Together they have helped spark what his Clark Medal citation called a “new wave of information economics.”

 ...

"Philipp is one of the most cheerful and friendly people I know. I have greatly enjoyed working with and learning from him. He is also extraordinarily productive: as of June 2024, he had published 37 papers in the eleven years since the completion of his dissertation, with several others forthcoming. Of this output, my review has only covered some of the highlights. In addition to the work discussed here, Philipp has made contributions to the study of market design (in [11], with Jacob Leshno and [23], with Afshin Nikzad), on contests (in [15], with Dawei Fang and Thomas Noe and [1], with Christian Seel), on present bias (in [10], with Paul Heidhues), and on epidemics (in [12], with Thomas Kruse). Some of Philipp’s papers provide a new understanding of important economics phenomena, others introduce results and techniques that will be used for years to come, and many do both. All of his work is clear and insightful, and its influence seems sure to expand. "

Climate crisis contributing to chocolate market meltdown

 The canary in the coalmine that is climate change is starting to show important signs of stress.

The Guardian has this story:

Climate crisis contributing to chocolate market meltdown, research finds.  Scientists say more-frequent hotter temperatures in west African region are part of reason for reduced harvests and price rises

"The climate crisis drove weeks of high temperatures in the west African region responsible for about 70% of global cacao production, hitting harvests and probably causing further record chocolate prices, researchers have said.

Farmers in the region have struggled with heat, disease and unusual rainfall in recent years, which have contributed to falling production.

The bitter future of chocolate? How drought and a youth exodus threaten Mexico’s prized cocoa

Read more

The decline has resulted in an increase in the price of cocoa, which is produced from the beans of the cacao tree and is the main ingredient in chocolate.

A new report found that “climate change, due primarily to burning oil, coal and methane gas, is causing hotter temperatures to become more frequent” in places such as the Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria.

The study, by the independent research group Climate Central, found the trend was particularly marked in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two biggest cacao producers."

Kidneys, compensation, and altruistic activists

 Here's a well written story about kidney donation, and  some of the very interesting people involved in the debate over compensating donors.  It's written by the talented science writer Carrie Arnold, in  Noema magazine (which she described to me as "a pub that has a philosophical bent published by the Berggruen Foundation," when I was among the many people she interviewed for the story). 

 It starts by introducing us to non-directed donors like Elaine Perlman and her son Abie Rohrig (he donated first and she followed). Elaine is now a leader in promoting organ donation and compensation of donors, not least through the End Kidney Deaths Act.   We also meet the indefatigable Frank McCormick, an economist at the forefront of understanding the finances of transplantation (and how much money it saves society and the healthcare system compared to dialysis).

 Here's the story:

How Much Is Your Kidney Worth? To address the deadly organ shortage, some are proposing compensating living kidney donors, creating an ethical dilemma.  By Carrie Arnold , in Noema, February 13, 2025

Ms. Arnold gives me the last word. The very last line of the story concerns the End Kidney Deaths Act:

“This is a proposal that just says donors are really generous,” Roth said, “maybe we can be generous to them in return.”

Politics, Physician Senators, and the Hippocratic Oath (regarding the confirmation of RFK Jr. as HHS secretary)

 Here's an opinion piece from MedpageToday

Physician Senators, What Have You Done?— They have betrayed the Hippocratic Oath in voting to confirm RFK Jr.   by Joseph V. Sakran, MD, MPH, MPA, and Samuel Okum, February 14, 2025 

"When Senator Bill Cassidy, MD (R-La.) -- a physician, longtime advocate for healthcare policy, and potential swing vote on the Finance Committee -- voted to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of HHS, he didn't just make a political choice. He made a choice that undermines science, public health, and the very Hippocratic Oath he once swore to uphold.

"While Cassidy claims to have taken this decision "very seriously," he must know it is wrong. As a legislator, he understands that the HHS secretary oversees critical health institutions like the CDC, FDA, and CMS. As a doctor, he has firsthand knowledge of how these agencies impact patient care, from ensuring access to safe medications to shaping life-saving public health policies. Entrusting this role to Kennedy -- a man with no qualifications beyond his fame as a purveyor of medical disinformation -- isn't just reckless. It endangers us all. 

...

"Through his organization, Children's Health Defense, Kennedy has falsely linked vaccines to autismopens in a new tab or window, opposed COVID-19 safety measuresopens in a new tab or window, and promoted debunked medical treatmentsopens in a new tab or window. In 2021, the Center for Countering Digital Hate identified him as one of the "Disinformation Dozenopens in a new tab or window" -- a small group responsible for nearly two-thirds of anti-vaccine content circulating online. All of this suggests this promotion of falsehoods has eroded public trust in vaccines, contributing to preventable disease outbreaks and declining immunization ratesopens in a new tab or window.

"The consequences of his rhetoric have been deadly. In 2019, Kennedy traveled to Samoa to support an investigationopens in a new tab or window into routine childhood vaccinations. His visit coincided with a devastating measles outbreak that infected thousands and killed dozens of unvaccinated children. When confronted by the country's prime minister, Kennedy expressed no remorse. Instead, he baselessly suggested that the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccineopens in a new tab or window itself may have been responsible for the deaths.

...

"

We believe Cassidy prioritized political expediency over medical integrity. He arguably chose to align himself with President Donald Trump and conspiracy rather than the national interest and public health.

Meanwhile, Cassidy set the stage for his physician colleagues -- Republican senators Roger Marshall, MD (Kan.), John Barrasso, MD (Wyo.), and Rand Paul, MD (Ky.) -- to follow suit. They have all betrayed their oath as doctors."