Monday, March 25, 2019

Followup on the latest Freakonomics kidney exchange chain

Earlier this month I blogged about a kidney exchange chain at Virginia Mason Hospital, in Seattle, initiated by a non-directed donor who had heard an interview about kidney exchange on Freakonomics.  Subsequently, my colleague Elena Cryst, whose dad is a transplant nephrologist at that hospital, sent her the email below about a short talk he'd prepared, which they have given me permission to reproduce with minor edits. (They also note that "the participants OK’d sharing this so no HIPA violations.")

Dr. Cryst writes:

"I’m a transplant nephrologist, and  I’m  sharing this story on the insistence of these four patients who want to get their story out and encourage others to participate in organ donation and increase the options for kidney transplants in our country”

This is a photo of 4 people – I hope you can see them as you read this.

Three out of four of these folks in the picture just so happened to have appointments in my Monday AM clinic.  I’ve been taking care of kidney transplant patients for thirty years, but by the end of clinic, I was astounded by seeing how much this meant for each one of them and the different reasons why.  As this morning went on I heard this story from three of the four points of view.  It very much took me by surprise how much had changed for all four.…  It was just another day in the office, but this story is striking and they all wanted to share it with everyone in hopes more people can receive transplants.



THE PHOTO: 



THE STORIES:  First with hat on backwards is DC my patient.  A naturally shy and private person.   Happiest I’ve seen him in three years but has had many disappointments.   It has been an emotional roller coaster, as three years ago he thought he was passing a kidney stone- only to learn he had an advanced kidney disorder and soon would either need to get a transplant  or start on dialysis.  There had been lots of struggles to get to the point of transplant…. one by one, donors came forward but were disqualified due to minor health issues.  Finally one did  get through testing and qualify to donate, only to find out she was not a match.  He was devastated again.  After working with our program, we were poised for a paired donor exchange but with time running out…we needed a non-directed donor to step forward.  If someone could donate for DC, his donor would give a kidney for the next person on our waiting list and he would not have to start the process of dialysis. 

Next to DC’s left is Steve, healthy tugboat pilot who commutes to his home inland and on the way listens to lots of podcasts.  Freakonomics Radio had one about Al Roth, a Nobel prize winning economist at Stanford who researches how to create markets for things that don’t have a price.  He was the economist who worked to redesign the resident matching program to accommodate couples in the 1990’s and was fascinated by the challenge of how to allocate kidneys from live donors.  This is another problem of how to make a market for something that could not be exchanged for cash.  He and colleagues designed the system and did the math.  And won the Nobel prize!  Steve caught on to a few facts in the story – like the huge number of potential living donors in this country, and the benefit that could be afforded to those waiting for a kidney from a deceased donor.  The fact that the number of such paired donor exchange transplants has grown from only 2  in 2000 to 1000 in 2018, and said sign me up.  His generosity and courage started this chain of events.  Al Roth’s work is changing the way we are doing kidney transplants at my hospital and bringing in more and more living donors together with recipients they don’t know. The process was hugely important to Steve and it was icing on the cake that he was able to meet DC after it was done.  They all mutually agreed to make the process open rather than confidential which was their personal choice.

Next is Debbie from Ukqiagvik Alaska (formally Barrow)  – the literal ‘end of the earth’ the northern most point in the USA above the arctic circle in Alaska.   Debbie is an Alaska native who toughed it out with barely enough renal function for many  years but time was running out for her as well.  She was at the very top of the waiting list and she was waiting for a deceased donor kidney at our far away transplant center. The logistics of urgent travel to a faraway city fast enough to get a kidney transplant from a deceased donor -- while the clock was ticking -- made it much more better for her to have a living donor transplant that could be scheduled.  As you can tell Debbie has been delighted with her new kidney.  She is a long way from home for a few months, but enjoying the challenges of being in the city, even trying foods not part of her diet - like cucumbers (not my favorite” she says) - not often available above the arctic circle!  She is here with family for a few months recovering and adapting to having normal kidney function again.

Next is Wendy – Journalist, community organizer and friend of DC.  She did gently insist that he let her get tested to donate.  He was apprehensive and certainly did not want to ask her.  But, as usual, Wendy prevailed.   In exchange her kidney went to Debbie who now feels better than she has in years.  Wendy is being ‘adopted’ by the women in Ukqiagvik and in clinic that morning, she was wearing the traditional hoodie blouse with big pockets that Debbie’s sisters back home had specially made for Wendy.  She is thinking about how to make the trip up north to see her new family of friends.  It was Wendy who also gently admonished me for not doing a better job of telling our story to others.  She strongly felt that we need to point out that her life and Steve’s are forever changed for the better - -  as well as the obvious benefit for DC and Debby. 

Although this is the kind of work we do every day, we would like to do many more living donor transplants for people and take more people off the waiting lists and out of the dialysis units.  There are a lot of moving parts and a lot of people who contribute, but we can scale it up.  The more scheduled procedures we do, opposed to deceased donor surgeries which are by necessity emergency surgeries, the greater our impact  can be. Each living kidney transplant also frees the deceased donor kidney to go to someone else - in effect doubling the benefit.  Thanks to Al Roth, there is now a new market for getting our willing donors together with recipients they do not know.  We always respect privacy and our default is to keep this process of ‘entering the market’ safe and anonymous.  But, as in this case, the participants can decide to share their experience, meet each other and . . . as Wendy said, “get the word out.”   In fact this photo captured the moment after surgery where this group organized a first meeting on their own and went off for lunch.  As a kidney transplant physician, I know we have the systems in place to grow this work.  Facilitating living kidney donation benefits not only more recipients, but it positively  changes lives of these donors.  It really positively affects lives of everyone involved. . .even the doctors like me…and I bet even the economists! 

Cyrus Cryst MD FASN

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Special issue of NRL in honor of Uri Rothblum, February 2019

Occasionally an Operations journal can bring memories flooding back: here's a special issue in honor of my old friend Uri Rothblum, who passed away in 2012. (We met in 1971, when we entered the Ph.D. program in Operations Research at Stanford.)

 The Journal Naval Research Logistics 
Volume 66, Issue 1, Special Issue:Uriel Rothblum, Pages: 1-102, February 2019

Here is the introduction, and the first paper, coauthored by Uri...


Introduction


  • Pages: 3
  •  
  • First Published: 26 December 2018

RESEARCH ARTICLES


Free Access

Constant risk aversion in stochastic contests with exponential completion times


  • Pages: 4-14
  •  
  • First Published: 24 January 2017
The previous issue was in honor of Pete Veinott, Uri's Ph.D. advisor:
Volume 65, Issue 8 Special Issue:Pete Veinott 

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Here are other posts of mine remembering Uri.

The journal used to be called the Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, and I published three papers there from 1977 to 1982.

Do cashless stores hamper access by the poor?

Are cashless stores discriminatory?  There's concern about that in Philadelphia, Massachusetts and elswhere.  The WSJ has the story:

Philadelphia Is First U.S. City to Ban Cashless Stores
Lawmakers move to maintain access to marketplace for lower-income consumers; Amazon and other businesses express concern about limits on innovation

"Philadelphia is the first major U.S. city to ban cashless stores, placing it at the forefront of a debate that pits retail innovation against lawmakers trying to protect all citizens’ access to the marketplace.

"Starting in July, Philadelphia’s new law will require most retail stores to accept cash. A New York City councilman is pushing similar legislation there, and New Jersey’s legislature recently passed a bill banning cashless stores statewide. A spokesman for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, declined to comment on whether he would sign it. Massachusetts has gone the farthest on the issue and is the only state that requires retailers to accept cash.
...
"Businesses that have gone cashless point to greater efficiency for employees, who don’t have to make change or count cash at closing time, and improved safety because workers don’t have to carry large bank deposits.

"But backers of measures forcing stores to accept cash say they worry about people who don’t have credit or debit cards. Supporters also say some consumers prefer to pay with currency for privacy reasons.

“I think it’s more the future than a fad, and that’s why there is a need for a legislative response,” said New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat, who is sponsoring legislation to ban cashless stores."
**********

See also:
San Francisco could ban Amazon’s cashier-free stores
"San Francisco is considering a ban on cashless Amazon stores as it weighs a bill that would make it one of a growing list of cities forbidding cashless retailers.
Just this week, New Jersey followed Philadelphia’s lead in signing into law a cashless store ban. Lawmakers argue that cashless stores can effectively discriminate against low-income consumers, who may not have a bank account or credit card. But businesses say going cashless is good for consumers and reduces the risk of robbery and the ability to evade taxes."

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Adam Bingaman and kidney exchange are celebrated (once again) in San Antonio

Kidney exchange is thriving in San Antonio: here are two stories celebrating Adam Binghaman's work at Methodist Specialty and Transplant Hospital:

Adam Bingaman, M.D.; Medical Director of Solid Organ Transplants, HCA Healthcare; Director, Abdominal Transplant Program, Methodist Specialty and Transplant Hospital; Transplant Surgeon, Director Live Donor and Incompatible Kidney Transplant Programs, Methodist Specialty and Transplant Hospital


The gift of life: HCA Healthcare leads nation in live donor kidney transplants
FEBRUARY 22, 2019
“Paired exchange has provided remarkable opportunities for the kidney transplant community,” says Dr. Bingaman. “During the first year in 2008, we did a total of 10 paired donations. Now, fast forward to 2019, we are closing in on our five hundredth paired exchange transplant at Methodist Specialty and Transplant Hospital.”
********
and
The Match Game: DR. ADAM BINGAMAN has created a groundbreaking
program that, for the 30 million people suffering from kidney disease, is very good news  
by timothy dumas, photography by hulya
***********

Here are all my posts referring to Dr. Bingaman:  https://marketdesigner.blogspot.com/search?q=bingaman&max-results=20&by-date=true

Friday, March 22, 2019

School choice in Denver, 2019 report

Here's the latest report from Denver's unified school choice:
Record High Participation In District’s Round 1 of SchoolChoice
Mar. 21, 2019
 
DPS marks eighth year of providing equitable, transparent enrollment through unified system
Denver –Thousands of Denver families took an active role in selecting the best-fit school for their student during another successful SchoolChoice enrollment season. Denver Public Schools (DPS) this week sent out over 27,000 emails and text messages notifying families of their students’ school assignments for 2019-20. Round 2 of SchoolChoice opens on April 3.
The goal of SchoolChoice is to level the playing field by giving all DPS students access to a quality education, regardless of their address or socio-economic background. And SchoolChoice is succeeding. This year, SchoolChoice placed 92% of kindergarteners and 95% of sixth-graders in their first-, second- or third-choice school. Ninth-graders were placed in one of their top three choices 94% of the time. For all three grade levels, match rates for first or second choices were also strong: 89% percent for kindergarten; and 93% for sixth and ninth.
In a continuing effort to provide the best service to Denver families, DPS shifted the timing of the Choice window to close in mid-February, allowing the district to release results nearly a month earlier than in 2018. And the district opened a new walk-in enrollment center in the southwest area to better support families. The DPS SchoolChoice process allows families to rank their top school choices on a single online application. The district then runs a computer algorithm designed to maximize the number of students getting their most-preferred option, subject to availability. The system is based on the 2012-Nobel Prize-winning work of Stanford and Harvard professor Dr. Alvin Roth.
DPS is one of the only large districts in the country in which all its schools, whether traditional, innovation or charter, participate in its choice program. Prior to 2011-12, families had to complete different applications for different schools on different timelines. SchoolChoice is primarily for families with students who will be transitioning into a new school next year, including those entering kindergarten, middle school and high school. The process is also open to families who are not necessarily in a transition year but would like the opportunity to choose a new school for their student.
Because virtually every school is an option in this single enrollment process, DPS provides families with the tools they need to adequately research schools and make informed decisions. These tools include the annual Great Schools Enrollment Guides, School Finder online school search tool, the Great Schools Regional Expo series, and individual school tours.
SchoolChoice is not limited to the Round 1 window that closed Feb. 20. Round 2 of SchoolChoice begins April 3 and will provide opportunities for families who did not participate in Round 1, or who participated in Round 1 but want to re-explore their options or who are new to DPS.
SchoolChoice Data
SchoolChoice participation rates by transition grades:
Kindergarten – 89%
Sixth-grade – 84%
Ninth-grade – 76%
TOTAL – 84%
SchoolChoice Match rates:
Grade2019: 1stChoice2018: 1stChoiceChange2019: 1stor 2nd2018: 1stor 2ndChange2019: 1st-3rd2018: 1st-3rdChange
          
K81%80%1.6%89%88%0.9%92%92%0.5%
683%83%-0.2%93%94%-2.0%95%97%-2.1%
985%80%5.0%93%93%0.0%94%95%-0.6%
K,6,983%81%1.8%91%92%-0.4%94%94%-0.7%

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Dr. Oscar Salvatierra, Jr. (1935 - 2019)

Here's the Stanford obituary of the pioneering kidney transplant surgeon:

Pioneering pediatric kidney transplant surgeon Oscar Salvatierra dies at 83
Oscar Salvatierra founded Stanford’s pediatric kidney transplant program, helped write the national legislation that regulates organ transplants, and conducted research in kidney transplantation.

"Oscar Salvatierra Jr., MD, professor emeritus of surgery and of pediatrics at the Stanford University School of Medicine and a leader in the effort to enact national legislation regulating organ donation, died March 16 at his home in Menlo Park, California.  He was 83.

...

"A pediatric kidney transplant surgeon, Salvatierra was the physician most involved in the development and passage of the National Organ Transplant Act of 1984, the legislation that established a nationwide network to enable the fair and equitable allocation of donor organs to patients across the country.

"The law, on which Salvatierra collaborated with then-Congressman Al Gore, also banned buying and selling donor organs. It has served as a model for laws regulating organ transplantation around the world.
...
"Salvatierra developed methods that enabled small children to be successfully transplanted with adult-sized kidneys, making it possible for many children to receive kidneys donated by adult donors, including their relatives. He also pioneered an immune-suppression protocol for pediatric kidney transplant recipients that avoided steroid medications, which have harmful side effects in children, such as severe growth suppression."

School choice in Washington D.C., by Thomas Toch in the Washington Post magazine

In the Washington Post magazine, Thomas Toch writes about the accomplishments and limitations of the school choice system in Washington D.C., and school choice more generally. He's a thoughtful observer of the education scene, and the director of FutureEd. (I gather that the piece is only online now and will be in print on Saturday...)

The Lottery That’s Revolutionizing D.C. Schools
by Thomas Toch.  Photos by Evelyn Hockstein, MARCH 20, 2019

The whole thing is worth reading.  Here's the concluding paragraph:

"In forcing traditional public schools to compete more directly, the common enrollment system has pressed them to strengthen themselves, as Henderson suggests. It has made school choice fairer and more efficient. And it has changed the dynamic between Washington’s public and private schools. Families are finding public Montessori programs, dual-language opportunities like Noah’s and other options that were offered mainly in the private sector in the past. But the long wait lists at some schools and empty spots at others that the My School DC lottery has produced make clear that the success of school choice in Washington will ultimately require creating more strong schools. “If we don’t have capacity in A-plus schools for all the kids, then some kids aren’t going to go to A-plus schools,” Roth told me. “No system of choice can fix that.”

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Frequencies of medically assisted death, in jurisdictions where it is legal

From the Lancet:
Regulation of assisted suicide limits the number of assisted deaths
Gian Domenico Borasio, Ralf J Jox, Claudia Gamondi
Published:February 20, 2019
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32554-6

"Several countries and US states have recently legalised euthanasia, assisted suicide, or both, including Canada and California, USA. In 2017, more than 13 000 patients died through either method of assisted death in countries where these practices are permitted. Euthanasia and assisted suicide have been legal in the Netherlands and Belgium since 2002, whereas assisted suicide has been legal in Switzerland since 1918 and in Oregon, USA, since 1997.


"In assisted suicide, patients take the lethal drug themselves, whereas doctors administer the drug in euthanasia. In 2012, this appeared to be a main reason for the higher frequency of assisted deaths in the Netherlands and Belgium, compared with Oregon and Switzerland. Yet data from the past 5 years suggest that the lack of legislation in Switzerland could also explain the higher frequency of assisted suicide, particularly since an increasing number of patients without terminal illness obtain permission for assisted suicide in Switzerland. By contrast, the lower frequency in Oregon might be explained by the requirement of a maximum life expectancy of 6 months and by the requirement that patients obtain a lethal dose from the pharmacy for auto-administration. On average, 36% of these patients in Oregon end up not using the lethal drug and die of their illness"

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Matching civil servants to positions (and career tracks) in India

Stanford's Ashutosh Thakur writes about civil service matching in India:
Rethinking cadre allocation procedures in civil services


 "The allocation procedure of All-India Services’ officers to states is an important aspect of personnel administration in the public sector. This article shows that a change in allocation policy in 2008 resulted in lower quality officers being systematically assigned to disadvantaged states. It examines the causes of these imbalances and impact on State capacity and development outcomes, and explores alternate mechanisms."

Monday, March 18, 2019

Alan Krueger (1960-2019)

I was shaken today by the news of Alan Krueger's death:

Alan B. Krueger, Economic Aide to Clinton and Obama, Is Dead at 58

He was a leading light in the study of labor markets (from the effects of minimum wage, to the micro and macro returns of education).  He was also a leading policy architect, not least in his service as the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.  (I interacted with him briefly when he was in that role, on matters concerning transplantation policy.)
***********

I'm reminded that many Americans of my generation encountered the poem Richard Corey as part of the elementary school curriculum.

Palgiarism detection, student data, and Ed Tech: the purchase of Turnitin

Here's a story that caught my eye in the Chronicle of Higher Ed, about the purchase of Turnitin, known so far primarily for plagiarism detection software:

Why a Plagiarism-Detection Company Is Now a Billion-Dollar Business

"Stamping out student plagiarism is big business. How big? $1.735 billion, to be exact. That’s the price that Advance, a privately held media, communications, and technology company, will pay to purchase Turnitin, the 800-pound gorilla of plagiarism-detection services.
...
"While its roots are in plagiarism detection, Turnitin actually has a broader portfolio. For example, it owns Gradescope, which offers AI-assisted grading tools, and Lightside Labs, which uses machine learning to provide feedback on students’ writing.

Chris Caren, chief executive of Turnitin, said the company’s next step is to become a platform for colleges and high schools to submit all types of student assignments, digital or on paper. It would then use AI to help instructors review that work to, among other things, spot at-risk students and devise remediation plans. The company is also developing Turnitin’s software to branch out into the STEM fields and detect plagiarism in coding, for example. In other words, it hopes to become a one-stop shop for all sorts of tech-driven teaching services."

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Congratulations to Ed Glaeser, Scott Kominers, Mike Luca and Nikhil Naik (EI best paper award)

Congratulations to the authors of this fine paper, published in Economic Inquiry.


2018 Best EI Article Award Announced!
LIMITATIONS OF IMPROVED MEASURES OF URBAN LIFE -- Volume 56, Issue 1, January 2018, Pages: 114-137
by Edward L. Glaeser, Scott Duke Kominers, Michael Luca, and Nikhil Naik

Abstract
"New, “big data” sources allow measurement of city characteristics and outcome variables at higher collection frequencies and more granular geographic scales than ever before. However, big data will not solve large urban social science questions on its own. Big urban data has the most value for the study of cities when it allows measurement of the previously opaque, or when it can be coupled with exogenous shocks to people or place. We describe a number of new urban data sources and illustrate how they can be used to improve the study and function of cities. We first show how Google Street View images can be used to predict income in New York City, suggesting that similar imagery data can be used to map wealth and poverty in previously unmeasured areas of the developing world. We then discuss how survey techniques can be improved to better measure willingness to pay for urban amenities. Finally, we explain how Internet data is being used to improve the quality of city services."


The paper's publication history says something about publishing, on line versus in print, at least in Economics.

Publication History
  • 27 November 2017
  • 12 July 2016
  • 23 February 2016
  • 23 November 2015

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Matching refugees to host country locations

My political science colleagues at Stanford have been thinking fruitfully about how to match refugees to locations in the countries to which they have been granted asylum:

Matching Refugees to Host Country LocationsBased on Preferences and Outcomes
∗ Avidit Acharya† Kirk Bansak‡ Jens Hainmueller§ February 21, 2019

Abstract: Facilitating the integration of refugees has become a major policy challenge in many host countries in the context of the global displacement crisis. One of the first policy decisions host countries make in the resettlement process is the assignment of refugees to locations within the country. We develop a mechanism to match refugees to locations in a way that takes into account their expected integration outcomes and their preferences over where to be settled. Our proposal is based on a priority mechanism that allows the government first to specify a threshold g for the minimum level of expected integration success that should be achieved. Refugees are then matched to locations based on their preferences subject to meeting the government’s specified threshold. The mechanism is both strategy-proof and constrained efficient in that it always generates a matching that is not Pareto dominated by any other matching that respects the government’s threshold. We demonstrate our approach using simulations and a real-world application to refugee data from the United States.
*********
Here's an earlier paper by a group including some of the same authors
 2018 Jan 19;359(6373):325-329. doi: 10.1126/science.aao4408.

Improving refugee integration through data-driven algorithmic assignment.

Abstract

Developed democracies are settling an increased number of refugees, many of whom face challenges integrating into host societies. We developed a flexible data-driven algorithm that assigns refugees across resettlement locations to improve integration outcomes. The algorithm uses a combination of supervised machine learning and optimal matching to discover and leverage synergies between refugee characteristics and resettlement sites. The algorithm was tested on historical registry data from two countries with different assignment regimes and refugee populations, the United States and Switzerland. Our approach led to gains of roughly 40 to 70%, on average, in refugees' employment outcomes relative to current assignment practices. This approach can provide governments with a practical and cost-efficient policy tool that can be immediately implemented within existing institutional structures.

Friday, March 15, 2019

NRMP Match Day, 2019

Today is match day, when imminent medical grads find out where they'll be starting residencies in July.

Here's the NRMP's press release:
Thousands Of Resident Physician Applicants Celebrate NRMP Match Results
2019 Main Residency Match is largest on record with 44,600 registered applicants and more than 35,000 positions offered

Here are some data tables, including this one on couples:


Here's an article in Stat reflecting on some current issues of marketplace maintenence, related to what certainly seems to have become excessive pre-match interviewing:

Ideas for easing medical students’ Match Day ‘frenzy’
By ALISON VOLPE HOLMES and MONA M. ABAZA MARCH 15, 2019

"The National Residency Matching Program is an admirable invention. Now more than 30 years old, it is the system through which medical students get their first paid, professional positions. It corrected past abuses that took advantage of students, often pressuring them to accept binding offers within 24 hours of a residency interview. The Match is sufficiently noteworthy that its creator, Alvin Ross, won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on matching theory. His algorithm continues to place half of U.S. medical school graduates in their first-choice programs. Other professions and selection processes could be improved by using a similar matching system.
Yet the Match and what leads up to it are having growing pains. Medical students are applying to increasing numbers of residency programs, sometimes to all of the programs in a field. Residency program directors are flooded with applications, and have trouble identifying which students are truly interested.
...
"Otolaryngology (also known as ear, nose, and throat) offers a telling illustration of this problem, and a potential solution that failed. In 2010, the average student interested in an otolaryngology residency applied to 47 programs, and the average residency program received 200 applications from U.S. medical students — to fill just two to six positions. By 2015, this increased to 64 applications per student and 275 applications per program.
"The program directors attempted to exert some control over application inflation by asking students to write a paragraph about their interest in the program they were applying for. This reduced applications, but also backfired. In 2017, the number of applications fell back to 200 per program, but 10 programsfailed to get the number of residents they needed. The otolaryngology program directors removed the supplemental requirement and applications jumped back up to 278.
...
"The Match was once a brilliant solution that everyone in medicine was proud of. There are still lessons to be learned from it for other selection processes, including undergraduate admissions. But if we — students, advising deans, and residency program directors — do not come together and work on solutions, we risk losing the Match’s great many advantages."

Ongoing controversies about same sex marriage

Relatively recent stories, about the Methodist world and the Arab world remind us that there remains considerable active repugnance to same sex marriage.

From the Washington Post:

Reeling from contentious LGBT vote, some Methodists pledge to fight while others mull leaving

"Dumbarton United Methodist Church is the oldest United Methodist congregation in Washington, D.C., dating almost 200 years before the United Methodist denomination was created — even before the United States was created.

"On Wednesday, when the church’s minister, the Rev. Mary Kay Totty, traveled back to Washington from a groundbreaking meeting in St. Louis, where the denomination decided to uphold its opposition to same-sex marriage and LGBT clergy, she said she thought that centuries-old history might be at a breaking point.

“To think of not being Methodist,” she said, then stopped, unable to complete the sentence. Dumbarton voted to affirm gay worshipers more than 30 years ago, and the church has performed 20 same-sex marriages since 2010, breaking the rules of the denomination every time. Now such actions will be met with much harsher penalties."
**************
(The NY Times reports that there were some voting irregularities:
Improper Voting Discovered at Methodist Vote on Gay Clergy)

**************
And from the Guardian:

Luxembourg PM takes Arab leaders to task on gay rights at summit
Xavier Bettel says his same-sex marriage would condemn him to death in some countries

"Luxembourg’s prime minister, Xavier Bettel, has confronted Arab leaders over the repression of gay rights, telling them his same-sex marriage would condemn him to death in some of their countries.
...
"Bettel, the first EU leader to be married to a same-sex partner, had planned to make the intervention before arriving at the summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, which was the first gathering between the EU and Arab League.

"Homosexuality is punishable by death under sharia law in Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen. Other countries in the region prohibit same-sex acts, including Algeria, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Syria, Kuwait and some of the United Arab Emirates.
...
"Bettel’s point is underscored by the treatment of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community in Egypt, the country that hosted the summit.

"Homosexuality is not illegal in Egypt, but LGBT people are frequently detained on euphemistic charges such as “debauchery”. After the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, came to power in a coup in 2013, he “appeared to embrace persecution of gays and trans people as a political strategy” according to a report by Human Rights Watch.
...
"The European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, defended the bloc’s decision to hold the summit. “If I only talked to flawless democrats, then I would end my week already by Tuesday,” he said."

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Organ donor compensation in New Zealand

Organ donation is being reorganized in New Zealand:
First step toward more life-saving organ transplants
Wednesday, 13 March 2019, Press Release: New Zealand Government

"The Organ Donors and Related Matters Bill introduced today enables the New Zealand Blood Service to take on the role of a national organ donation service. The Bill also extends in certain situations, the financial compensation for qualifying donors while they recuperate.
...
“The Bill also amends the Compensation for Live Organ Donors Act 2016, which gives qualifying donors financial compensation while they recuperate.

“While the Act is largely working well, donors who return to work part time are not eligible, nor are donors who could be part of the proposed trans-Tasman kidney exchange. The Bill will amend the Act to allow for compensation in these situations,” David Clark said.

"In 2018, there were 62 deceased donors who enabled 192 recipients to receive kidney, liver, lung, heart or pancreas transplants, and many more recipients received tissue transplants. There were also 84 live donor kidney transplants and 2 live donor liver transplants."

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Disrupting black markets

If markets can be facilitated, they can also be obstructed. The NSF announces some grants aimed at this:

NSF invests in research to help disrupt operations of illicit supply networks
9 early concept awards to detect, disrupt, disable networks that traffic people, weapons, drugs and more

"Networks that illegally traffic in everything from people and opioids to human organs and nuclear material pose threats to U.S. health, prosperity and security. Nine new awards from the National Science Foundation (NSF) will advance the scientific understanding of how such illicit supply networks function -- and how to dismantle them.

"The new awards support research that combines engineering with computer, physical and social sciences to address a danger that poses significant consequences for national and international security. Nimble and technologically sophisticated networks traffic in contraband that includes people, illegal weapons, drugs, looted antiquities, and exotic animal products. Unencumbered by national boundaries, they funnel illicit profits to criminal organizations, and fuel transnational and terrorist organizations.

"Other federal agencies and organizations have worked on this issue for many years, with involvement of specialized fields in the academic community. The new NSF awards leverage fundamental research, taking an engineering systems-based approach made far more powerful by the integration of other scientific disciplines.

"We've been studying commercial supply chains for years and figuring out how to make them resilient -- now we want to use these same principles to make illicit networks less resilient. We want to break them," said Georgia-Ann Klutke, NSF program director for Operations Engineering in the Directorate for Engineering. "These are systems that operate by the same dynamics and use the same infrastructure components as legal commercial distribution systems. Our goal is to provide fundamental insights into the operations and economics of these networks that other federal agencies and organizations can use to attack this very complex problem."
...
Below are the nine new projects being funded, along with the principal investigators and awardee organizations.

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Legal lotteries and illegal numbers games: some history

The NY Times published a nostalgic look back at the widespread illegal gambling on the "numbers" that preceded the introduction of a legal state run lottery, which eventually competed away the illegal game. It's a story of both market design, to produce a trustworthy lottery that could be run by criminals, and a story of how a legal market eventually replaced it (although, as I recall, only slowly...)

The Daily Lottery Was Originally a Harlem Game. Then Albany Wanted In.
The numbers were a sprawling, black-run business for decades.

"In the early 1920s, Casper Holstein, a black man from the Danish West Indies who worked as a porter for a Fifth Avenue store, liked to study the “Clearing House” totals published in a year’s worth of newspapers he’d saved. The Clearing House was an operation that managed the exchanges of money among New York City banks on a daily basis. It occurred to Holstein that the numbers printed were different every day.

"Until then, lottery games existed, but the winning numbers were often chosen in unreliable ways that could produce rigged results. According to the 2010 book “Playing the Numbers,” Holstein came up with an ingenious solution. Using the Clearing House totals to produce a random combination between 000 and 999, he came up with a daily three-digit winning number for a new kind of lottery game. His invention became known simply as the numbers.

It was an immediate hit and quickly created a sprawling underground economy that moved through Harlem and other black communities in the U.S. For 60 years, the numbers reigned supreme as New York City’s pre-eminent daily lottery game — until 1980, when the state decided it wanted in."
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And here's a 2013 story, about how the numbers hung on for a while, but its customers got older and older:
Relics of the Bygone (and the Illegal)
The numbers game is dwindling, even in Harlem, once its stronghold, but it’s not obsolete.
"Back then, there were an estimated 100,000 numbers workers and more than 8,000 arrests a year. In neighborhoods like Harlem, the game became an element of black and Latino identity and culture. Black leaders called for black-owned rackets in the 1960s, and there were conflicts with the Mafia.

Several years later, with the state lottery offering a similar game, runners and numbers bankers openly protested in Manhattan. They feared the legal game would wipe out the rackets and their jobs. They were, for the most part, right."
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I have an unreliable memory that I can't now confirm online that when I matriculated at Columbia University in 1968, the local weekly Harlem newspaper (probably the Amsterdam News) didn't publish any financial information except for a single number, which I recall not as the clearinghouse numbers described above, but something like the volume of trade on the New York Stock Exchange the previous day.  I remember naively inquiring why this should be the one number reported in a weekly newspaper, and it was explained to me that its last digits were the weekly number.  (I think it was published on the front page, but looking online at old photos of the Amsterdam News front page I don't see it.)  If anyone has a more reliable/correct memory, I'd be glad to hear of it.