Marriage, jobs, and immigration

A recent NBER paper relates two things whose interaction has fascinated me for some time (the marriage and job markets) with a third, immigration.

America's settling down: How Better Jobs and Falling Immigration led to a Rise in Marriage, 1880 – 1930 by Tomas Cvrcek, NBER Working Paper No. 16161, July 2010.

Abstract: The growing education and employment of women are usually cited as crucial forces behind the decline of marriage since 1960. However, both trends were already present between 1900 and 1960, during which time marriage became increasingly widespread. This early period differed from the post-1960 decades due to two factors primarily affecting men, one economic and one demographic. First, men’s improving labor market prospects made them more attractive as marriage partners to women. Second, immigration had a dynamic effect on partner search costs. Its short-run effect was to fragment the marriage market, making it harder to find a partner of one’s preferred ethnic and cultural background. The high search costs led to less marriage and later marriage in the 1890s and 1900s. As immigration declined, the long-run effect was for immigrants and their descendants to gradually integrate with American society. This reduced search costs and increased the marriage rate. The immigration primarily affected the whites’ marriage market which is why the changes in marital behavior are much more pronounced among this group than among blacks."

Brokers for pirate ransom

Suppose your ship were hijacked by Somali pirates, and you wanted to ransom it and the crew. How would you go about it?  You would need a middleman, someone who could get the money to the right pirates, and maybe who played a repeated game with them, to help ensure that the release would go as planned. As it happens, you might become the client of a certain kind of British law firm, whose market is now threatened by the imposition of sanctions against those who deal with certain named Somali pirates. The problem is, it may be impossible to pay a ransom without doing business with the embargoed individuals. The Financial Times reports: Somali crackdown threatens City role on ransoms

"International plans for a legal crackdown on the funding of piracy could scupper a burgeoning City industry.
"The United Nations plans for sanctions on two suspected pirates would hit the often lucrative work of the law firms, insurers and private security companies in London that quietly arrange ransoms to free kidnapped ships and crews."
...
"The government has decided to block the UN plans amid worries they could force shipowners and their advisers to stop paying ransoms or else risk prosecution.


"London’s piracy negotiation business brings together an unusual cast of characters, from hard-bitten security operatives to dapper lawyers making telephone calls to hijacked ships from offices close to the banks of the Thames.


"NYA International, a kidnap response specialist based off Bishopsgate and now part of Aon, the US insurance broker, has advised on more than 20 piracy incidents during the past 18 months or so.


"The leading ship hijack case law firm in terms of numbers of clients is said to be Holman Fenwick Willan, which has offices north-west of the Tower of London.


"James Gosling, partner at HFW, said: “Nobody wants to pay ransoms. But when it’s the only option, what the hell else do you do?” "
...
"The concern about sanctions is that, while they do not explicitly outlaw the payment of ransoms, they make it impossible in practice because of the uncertainty about where money given to pirates will end up.

“The problem is the due diligence,” Mr Roberts said. “How can you possibly know if the money is going to that [sanctioned] person or not?”

"Maritime lawyers in London say they were encouraged by a High Court ruling this year that paying ransoms wasn’t contrary to British public policy, although they admit the argument over the subject is increasingly becoming political rather than legal.

"That is why the capital’s community of piracy-related businesses is appealing to the government to hold firm in stopping the UN proposal and the sanctions it would introduce.

"As one London-based insurer, who asked not to be named, put it: “We would be very concerned if shipowners were denied a means to free pirated ships.

“There are no navies prepared to go all guns blazing to rescue people – and it wouldn’t work, either.” "

New Orleans Receivables Exchange

In several earlier posts I've been following the progress of the New Orleans Receivables Exchange.

The State of Louisiana has now passed some legislation that makes it easier for companies to sell their accounts receivable: here's the text of the Louisiana Exchange Sale of Receivables Act.

And here's an article from Inc. Magazine: A New Liquidity Solution

Korean marriage brokers for foreign brides

After a tragedy involving the death of a young woman, SKorea Cracks Down on Marriage Brokers .

"...Her death in early July has drawn attention to the growing trend of South Korean men looking overseas for brides...
"Over the past decade, a growing number of South Korean men, particularly from farming villages with dwindling populations, have been looking overseas for wives....
"They pay an average of $9,900 to brokers to connect them with young women looking for economic security, mostly from Southeast Asia and China, Heo said.

''International marriages are in a way a practical intersection of interests, bringing together South Korean bachelors and foreign women who suffer from poverty and have a romanticized notion of a prosperous life in an industrialized country like South Korea,'' Heo said.
"In 2009, 180,000 foreigners were married to South Koreans, including more than 35,000 Vietnamese women, the Ministry of Public Administration and Security said.
"Many met their spouses through the estimated 1,250 marriage brokers or matchmakers who arrange an estimated 15,000 marriages each year between South Korean men and foreign women, mostly from Southeast Asia, the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family said. "

Organ donation registration on income tax forms

Organ donation checkoff proposed for tax forms

"LANSING, Mich. - Michigan's secretary of state wants to make organ donation easier by adding a checkoff box on annual tax forms.
Terri Lynn Land says the box would be similar to the current section of the tax form that asks filers if they want part of their taxes to go to the State Campaign Fund.
Tax filers would have the option of marking the box which allows their names to be added to Michigan's Organ Donor Registry.
Land says the proposal allows for a convenient way for organ donors to sign up and allows every Michigan taxpayer to be reached "at virtually no cost" during current lean fiscal times. Her proposal has to go before the state Legislature."

HT Steve Leider

The market for electricity

As the supply of electricity changes in response to growing numbers of wind turbines, there's more need to be able to store electricity: Wind Drives Growing Use of Batteries

"In New York and California, companies are exploring electrical storage that is big enough to allow for “arbitrage,” or buying power at a low price, such as in the middle of the night, and selling it hours later at a higher price. In the Midwest, a utility is demonstrating storage technology that can go from charge to discharge and back several times a minute, or even within a second, bracing the grid against the vicissitudes of wind and sun and transmission failure. And in Texas, companies are looking at ways of stabilizing voltage through battery storage in places served by just one transmission line."

I also recently heard of attempts to create more flexible demand by fitting households with electrical heat storage units, that heat bricks when electricity is cheap, and power the household heating system off the stored heat.

School choice in Darebin City, Victoria, Australia

It sounds like at least one school district in Australia has less bureaucracy than my colleagues and I have encountered in helping American cities reorganize their school assignment systems. Kwanghui Lim at CoRE Economics reports: Game Theory in Action: Sven Feldmann on Kindergarten Matching.

More on school choice here, and here. (And here is a video of Muriel Niederle presenting a new school choice algorithm to the San Francisco school board meeting that gave the go ahead for a redesign there.)

WHO: blood donation insufficient in developing countries

The World Health Organization reports

• "65% of all blood donations are made in developed countries, home to just 25% of the world's population.

• In 73 countries, donation rates are still less than 1% of the population (the minimum needed to meet basic needs in a country). Of these, 71 are either developing or transitional countries.
• 42 countries collected less than 25% of their blood supplies from voluntary unpaid blood donors, which is the safest source.
• 31 countries still reported collecting paid donations in 2007, more than 1 million donations in total.
• 41 countries were not able to screen all blood donations for one or more of the following transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs)–HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C and syphilis."

They recommend programs of voluntary blood donation:
"Safe blood donors are the cornerstone of a safe and adequate supply of blood and blood products. The safest blood donors are voluntary, non-remunerated blood donors from low-risk populations. Despite this, family/replacement and paid donors, which are associated with a significantly higher prevalence of transfusion-transmissible infections (TTIs) including HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, syphilis and Chagas disease, still provide more than 50% of the blood collected in developing countries. WHO advocates and recommends to its Member States to develop national blood transfusion services based on voluntary non-remunerated regular blood donation in accordance with World Health Assembly resolution 28.72, which was adopted in 1975. "

Kidney Exchange in South Korea

S. Korea was a pioneer in kidney exchange. (In the U.S. population, Asians have the highest frequency of blood type B, almost equal to their frequency of A, and so the simplest exchanges of an A-B patient donor pair with a B-A patient donor pair come up more often among Asians.)

Here's a report of their experience.

J Korean Med Assoc. 2008 Aug;51(8):717-723. Korean.

Exchange Living-donor Kidney Transplantation: The Present and Future. Huh KH, Kim YS, Kim BS. Department of Surgery, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Korea. yukim@yuhs.ac Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Korea. Abstract The shortage of donor organs is one of the major barriers of transplantation worldwide. After the success of the direct exchange donor (swap) program in Korea since 1991, a swaparound program has been developed. Recently, a web-based (computerized) algorithm to facilitate donor kidney exchange was devised and tested in multi-center settings. An excellent longterm outcome was achieved by using the donor exchange program as an option to reduce the donor organ shortage. Herein, we discussed on the current status of the exchange donor renal transplantation in Korea, a couple of problems we have had, and future directions we have to head and make better to improve organ donation activities.

More market design in Hebrew

Forbes has an Israeli edition, and here is a Hebrew translation of the article that ran in English here.

(Here's a different market design article in Hebrew, featuring Itai Ashlagi, that I posted about earlier.)

Repugnance and/or disgust

I like to distinguish what I've called repugnant transactions from those that elicit disgust. By repugnant transactions I mean transactions that some people want to engage in and that others don't want them to (e.g. same sex marriage, or buying or selling a kidney, or ordering horse meat at a U.S. restaurant). One sign that a transaction is viewed as repugnant by a sufficiently big part of the population is if it is illegal. Disgusting transactions most often don't elicit legislation (except in a consumer protection way), e.g. it's illegal in CA to offer to sell horse meat for human consumption, but not, say, spit: the difference being that some people would like to buy and eat horse meat.

However there's no denying that part of what makes some transactions repugnant to some people is that they find them disgusting (see e.g. Martha Nussbaum on same sex marriage). There have been recent reports in the press and blogosphere on attempts to link physiological indicators of disgust to, among other things, political proclivities.

Nicholas Kristof in the NY Times gives a quick overview of some conclusions of this sort: Our Politics May Be All in Our Head

Mark Liberman at Language Log takes a closer look: Physiological politics, and suggests that at least some of the results could be artifacts of the experiment. (He has a followup here: Icktheology.)

In the context of organ transplantation, I've noted that the repugnance to sales of organs is hard to equate with a visceral disgust reaction, since there isn't repugnance to transplants in general. There may of course be specific exceptions to that, see e.g. this article in the American Journal of Transplantation:

"Specific Unwillingness to Donate Eyes: The Impact of Disfigurement, Knowledge and Procurement on Corneal Donation" (p 657-663)M. Lawlor, I. Kerridge, R. Ankeny, T. A. Dobbins, F. BillsonPublished Online: Jan 29 2010 2:23PM

The market for once-used wedding dresses

For Sale: One White Dress, Yet to Be Worn
"AS more brides try to sell their used wedding dresses online, some have found a way to stand out from the competition: putting their gowns up for sale before even walking down the aisle.
A growing number of postings for so-called presale dresses have popped up among the listings on sites like oncewed.com, preownedweddingdresses.com and woreitonce.com.
...
"A used dress generally sells for about 50 percent off retail, whether sold before or after the wedding. But brides see an advantage to selling before the wedding because the styles are still current and other brides often can try on the same dress in stores. That, they say, enhances the likelihood of a quick sale.
...
"Zofia Gajdamowicz, 27, a bartender in Toronto who hopes to sell her Modern Trousseau dress before her wedding in late October, said she will “have to be a little more careful” if she finds a buyer.
“I already told my friends, ‘Don’t let me drink any red wine,’ ” she said."

The market for professionally taken digital photographs

I was recently the subject of a magazine story, and, before it was published, the photographer Shawn Henry came to campus to "take my picture". That phrase doesn't do justice to what he actually did, which resulted in 148 photographs, eventually edited down to 30, and then to 5 that were sent to the magazine editors to choose the final one.

Mr Henry has given me permission to link to his copyrighted photos, in case you want to see how this sausage was made: here are the 148 pictures, the 30 pictures, and the final one (this link may take a minute to load, it's to the Forbes article...)

These pictures didn't take a lot of time for him to make; as I recall, we were together for about half an hour. (Even though we were outdoors, he deployed some lights and reflectors.)

Seeing how a pro works has made me feel better both about how I often don't like either how I look in pictures, or how other people look in pictures that I take.  Many of the pictures linked above were not so flattering (particularly in the set of 148), but I liked the final one. So selection from a wide variety helps. (And now I just need to lose a little weight:)

Modern electronics have probably changed not only the equipment that photographers use, but also how they work.

The market for boasting

How did people boast signal before they had blogs?

Not long ago I was the subject of a flattering profile in Forbes (which I wrote about in this earlier blog boast post).
Yesterday I received a letter in the mail from a company that "specializes in turning articles into custom designed plaques."

It's not a bad idea, and if I were a restaurant, I'd buy one right away, and post it next to the menu, preferably where it could be read from the street.

Kidney transplantation advice from the Netherlands

Two recent reports from the Netherlands give advice drawn from their active transplant program.

The (American) National Guideline Clearinghouse highlights one set of recommendations: Kidney donation. In: Guidelines on renal transplantation. European Association of Urology - Medical Specialty Society. 2009 Mar. 23 pages. NGC:007337 (full text here.)

The first three recommendations under the first category of recommendations, "Ethical Issues in Transplantation," illustrate some of the conflicting forces at work:

• "It is the right of individuals to donate as well as to receive an organ.
• "Commercially motivated renal transplantation is unacceptable. It has been widely prohibited by law and is strongly opposed by the International Society of Transplantation.
• "With the increasing success of living-donor transplants, as judged by graft and patient survival, and with the scarcity of deceased donor organs, living-donor transplants should be encouraged. "
• The altruistic living donor must give informed consent, which can only be obtained if he or she has a proper understanding of the risk involved.

They have this to say about kidney exchange:

• Paired kidney exchange if permitted by national law is a way of increasing the number of kidney transplants..

Another report, focused specifically on kidney exchange is from Clinical Transplants 2009:247-52, "On chain lengths, domino-paired and unbalanced altruistic kidney donations," by de Klerk M, Zuidema WC, Ijzermans JN, Weimar W. Dept of Internal Medicine - Transplantation, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

"Abstract: Kidney transplantations with living related and unrelated donors are the optimal option for patients with end-stage renal disease. For patients with a willing--but blood-type or HLA incompatible donor--a living-donor kidney exchange program could be an opportunity. In Asia, the United States and Europe, kidney exchange programs were developed under different conditions, with different exchange algorithms, and with different match results. The easiest way to organize a living-donor kidney exchange program is to enlist national or regional cooperation, initiated by an independent organization that is already responsible for the allocation of deceased donor organs. For logistic reasons, the optimal maximum chain length should be three pairs. To optimize cross-match procedures a central laboratory is recommended. Anonymity between the matched pairs depends on the culture and logistics of the various countries. For incompatible donor-recipient pairs who have been unsuccessful in finding suitable matches in an exchange program, domino-paired kidney transplantations triggered by Good Samaritan donors is the next alternative. To expand transplantations with living donors, we advise integrating such a program into a national exchange program under supervision of an independent allocation authority. If no Good Samaritan donors are available, an unbalanced kidney paired-exchange program with compatible and incompatible pairs is another strategy that merits future development."
PMID: 20524290 [PubMed - in process]

Their conclusion that "the optimal maximal chain length should be three pairs" has certainly not been the U.S. experience: my conjecture is that they are limited to the operating rooms they can organize in a single hospital.

Kidney exchange in Haaretz

Here's an article (in Hebrew) on kidney exchange, featuring the work of Itai Ashlagi. (The article is also here.)

Update: it wasn't in Haaretz itself, but in an accompanying magazine supplement.

Economics and computer science

The links between economics and computer science are growing steadily closer, judging from this report conveyed by Noam Nisan about the Shanghai summer school in algorithmic game theory.

Paul Klemperer's "product mix auction"

Paul Klemperer writes from Oxford:

"the Bank of England has now been running my "product mix auction" for the last two months almost exactly as set out in Section 2 of "The Product-Mix Auction: a New Auction Design for Differentiated Goods" (including "paired bids" etc.)

"Although I designed it for the financial crisis when I was consulted in 2007 after Northern Rock bank run, full implementation was slow. But it is now fully implemented and running regularly (in part, so using it is not seen as a signal of crisis).

"It's perhaps best understood as a "proxy" version of a simultaneous multiple round auction. That is, bidders input their preferences, and the auction chooses the outcome that an SMRA would select assuming straightforward bidding. Because the auction is "sealed bid", it runs instantaneously (important in the Bank's financial-market context), and it therefore also less vulnerable to collusion. Another novel feature is that the auctioneer also bids its preferences about how the proportions of different varieties that it will sell will depend upon the auction prices. (By contrast, SMRA implementations I am aware of specify the number of each type of good to be sold in advance.) It's also related to Paul Milgrom's independently-invented assignment auction, but the way bidders represent their preferences is different (easier and more general in some ways).

"The Bank's specific problem is to auction loans linked to varying qualities of collateral [to inject liquidity into the banking system rapidly], but

        --charge different borrowers different interest rates reflecting the different collateral-qualities [to reduce moral hazard];

        --allow market conditions, as revealed by the bids, to determine BOTH the interest-rate-premium for inferior collateral AND the proportion of inferior collateral accepted [because the Bank may neither be sufficiently informed about conditions, nor wish to send a 'signal' to the market];

        --permit borrowers to specify how the collateral they supply will depend upon the auction outcome [because the interest-rate-premium is not - see above - pre-specified]

"I've advised other Central Banks. Other future applications might include other purchasing "toxic assets", selling electricity, and trading biodiversity."

Peer to peer overnight accommodations

The NY Times reviews sites of "social network bed and breakfasts" on which you can reserve rooms for overnight stays in cities around the world: Europe Without Hotels.

The sites have various ways to protect against scams:

"In Paris, AirBnB has places in every arrondissement, including $13-a-night rooms in the western suburbs and $285-a-night houseboats on the Seine. As the first Web site of its kind to grab the headlines, the system has already developed a large and loyal user base. Some properties have as many as 70 user-generated reviews, which give paying guests a greater sense of confidence. It is similar to how eBay works: you’re more likely to buy from an eBay seller with good feedback." ...

"After the brief tour, I gave Mr. Mostaedi the code that allows him to collect my payment from iStopOver. That’s one of the safeguards that iStopOver offers to guests. If a listing turns out to be fraudulent or misstated, you can refuse to give the owner the code, and the fee is refunded in full. Other services offer similar protections: AirBnB withholds a host’s payment until 24 hours after guests check into an accommodation in order to fend off potential scammers, and Crashpadder uses credit card payments to verify guest identities (though it says it will monitor but not otherwise involve itself in any disputes)."

Here are the sites mentioned:

"AIRBNB.COM
AirBnB.com, founded in 2007 in San Francisco, is the largest of this new generation of social B&Bs and has the most user reviews.
Where: About 5,378 cities in 146 countries.
Accommodations: Air mattresses to entire villas.
Price: In New York, from $10 for a room to $3,000 for a loft.
ISTOPOVER.COM
IStopOver, founded in 2009 in Toronto, specializes in big events, like this summer’s World Cup in South Africa.
Where: Mostly North America, Europe and South Africa.
Accommodations: Apartments and houses.
Price: $10 to $8,000 a night.
CRASHPADDER.COM
Founded in 2008 in London, Crashpadder.com operates mostly in Britain, with a surge expected during the 2010 Olympics in London.
Where: 898 cities, including more than 1,000 listings in London.
Accommodations: Bedrooms to houses.
Price: From £15 (about $21 at $1.43 to the pound) a night, plus £3 booking fee.
ROOMORAMA.COM
Founded in 2008, Roomorama.com focuses on higher-end properties, especially in New York City.
Where: 36 cities, including more than 1,000 listings in New York.
Accommodations: Bedrooms to houses.
Price: From $30 to $5,000, plus an 8 to 12 percent booking fee. "

Unraveling of law firm interviews of 2nd year students

Catherine Rampell has an informative article about The Other Law School Arms Race.  The date at which large law firms interview 2nd year law students (for summer associate positions that are the entry path to permanent positions after graduation) has moved earlier, to the summer before the second year begins.

"Speaking of the career paths for new lawyers, we’ve noted before that the sour legal job market has encouraged law schools to find creative ways to make their students look more attractive to employers, at least when compared with students from other schools. Intentional grade inflation is one particularly controversial tool schools have been using.


"But the arms race has found another battlefield as well: on-campus interview week.At most top schools, early in the second year of law school, dozens of law firms visit campus to conduct a round-robin of job interviews with students. These interviews are the first step to a summer associate job after the second year, and oftentimes a permanent job offer after graduation following the third year of school.

"The exact timing of this “on-campus interview week” has traditionally varied by school, and from firm to firm, thereby allowing different firms to send recruiters to Harvard one week, Columbia the next, Chicago the following week, and so on.

"But with the job market so tight, last year schools began worrying that if law firms visited them later in the fall, the few job offers available would already be gone. So many top schools bumped up their on-campus interview weeks from October to September to finally August, before the school year even starts, because they wanted their students to have a chance to claim a job slot before their counterparts at other schools did."
...
"In February the organization that creates guidelines for legal recruiting process, NALP, released new rules about how long job offers could stay open, a measure intended to curb this interviewing arms race. But the new guidelines have not so far inspired any coordinated new schedule for interviewing process. "
...
The article closes with a news release from Northwestern: Northwestern Law, Jones Day Agree to On-Campus Interviewing in September

"CHICAGO --- Northwestern University School of Law and the global law firm Jones Day announced today July 26 that the firm will conduct its on-campus interviews for 2011 summer associates in September instead of during the law school's official on-campus interviewing (OCI) program, which begins Aug. 11. In a move benefiting both students and law firms, Jones Day will conduct interviews on behalf of its 14 U.S. offices on Monday, Sept. 13.


"Jones Day joins Northwestern Law in the belief that the current recruitment system has created a competitive race among law schools and law firms to conduct on-campus interviews earlier. The result is an inefficient system that does not serve employers or student applicants well, according to the law school and law firm.

"The current system discourages the efforts of law firms to learn about all the competencies (over and above grades) of potential associates," according to David Van Zandt, dean, Northwestern Law. "It also requires firms to make employment decisions and predictions about their hiring needs too far in advance of permanent start dates.

"The compression of summer associate interviews in August is also problematic for students since it constrains their time to make sensible decisions about with whom to interview, to adjust interviewing techniques based on what they learn during the process, or to make sound decisions about offers of employment," said Van Zandt. "It contributes to a frequent lack of fit between graduates and the law firms, which inevitably leads to higher attrition levels for the firms."

"Taking this step with Northwestern will help show that a more balanced, less frenzied approach to on-campus recruiting is not only still possible, but indeed desirable for all concerned -- students, law schools and law firms," said Greg Shumaker, firmwide hiring partner at Jones Day.

HT: Eric Budish