Thursday, January 9, 2014

Black markets and black market prices

A website call Havocscope (subtitle: Global Black Market Information) compiles information from news stories and other public sources about black markets and reported transaction prices around the world, from counterfeit goods of various sorts (from pharma to tech to food), to repugnant markets from narcotics to contract killing.

Here's their take on prices in the black markets for kidneys for transplantation.

When you click on the prices they indicate, you find their source, often a newspaper story that may only contain an anecdotal report of a transaction, so I don't think they make strong claims for the accuracy of their data, but it makes for interesting reading.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Video of market design talk at USF

Not long ago I gave a talk at the University of San Francisco. My host was Professor Ludwig Chincarini, and he has posted this video of my lecture:

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Celebrating experimental economics (and being celebrated for it) at the University of Amsterdam, January 8

The University of Amsterdam (UvA) is the home of one of Europe's important centers of experimental economics at Creed:


On January 8 I'll be helping celebrate CREED when I receive an honorary doctorate at UvA, along with the legal scholar James Crawford. The announcement says this about me, and my professional connection to the focus of CREED's work:
"He is also one of the pioneers of experimental economics, regarded as one of the Big Four (along with Charles Plott, Reinhard Selten and Vernon Smith) responsible for putting this field on the map in the latter half of the 20th century.
Prof. Arthur Schram, professor of Experimental Economics, has been designated honorary supervisor."

I'll also get a chance to talk to students: Room for Discussion ontvangt Nobelprijswinnaar Alvin Roth, or maybe with more English here
*************
update: here's the video, see at 1:11:41)


Monday, January 6, 2014

D47. Market Design is now officially a field of study

I returned last night from Philadelphia where the American Economic Association’s annual meeting was held. While I was there, my Pittsburgh colleague Asatoshi Maeshiro informed me that Market Design has arrived. In particular, the AEA publishes the Journal of Economic Literature, which classifies articles according to what field they are in. And the newest JEL Classification Codes include market design, under the overall heading of Market Structure and Pricing.  We’re D47.

        D4          Market Structure and Pricing
        D40        General
        D41        Perfect Competition
        D42        Monopoly
        D43        Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
        D44        Auctions
        D45        Rationing; Licensing
        D46        Value Theory
        D47 Market Design

        D49        Other

When you click on microeconomics, followed by market structure, followed by market design on the JEL classification webpage, you get to this description of the new field, with example (which are clickable on the web page, but don't seem to be when I copy them...:

D470 Market Design
Guideline: Covers studies concerning the design and evolution of economic institutions, the design of mechanisms for economic transactions (such as price determination and dispute resolution), and the interplay between a market�s size and complexity and the information available to agents in such an environment.
Keywords: Markets, Microeconomic Engineering, Price Formation, Quasi-markets
Caveats: Purely theoretical studies concerning mechanism design should be classified in D82. Purely empirical studies concerning market structure should be classified in the appropriate category under L1.
Examples:

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Market design today in Philadelphia

Two sessions I'll be attending at today's AEA meetings...


Jan 05, 2014 8:00 am, Pennsylvania Convention Center, 204-C 
American Economic Association
Frontiers of Market Design (D4)
PresidingALVIN ROTH (Stanford University)
The High-Frequency Trading Arms Race: Frequent Batch Auctions as a Market Design Response
ERIC BUDISH (University of Chicago)
PETER CRAMTON (University of Maryland)
JOHN SHIM (University of Chicago)
[View Abstract]
Organ Donation Loopholes Undermine Warm Glow Giving: An Experiment Motivated By Priority Loopholes in Israel
ALVIN E. ROTH (Stanford University)
JUDD KESSLER (University of Pennsylvania)
[View Abstract]
Mechanism Design in Large Games: Incentives and Privacy
MICHAEL KEARNS (University of Pennsylvania)
MALLESH PAI (University of Pennsylvania)
AARON ROTH (University of Pennsylvania)
JONATHAN ULLMAN (Harvard University)
[View Abstract]
Strategy-Proofness, Investment Efficiency, and Marginal Returns: An Equivalence
JOHN WILLIAM HATFIELD (Stanford University)
FUHITO KOJIMA (Stanford University)
SCOTT DUKE KOMINERS (University of Chicago)
[View Abstract]
Discussants:
MICHAEL OSTROVSKY (Stanford University)
JAMES ANDREONI (University of California-San Diego)
ILYA SEGAL (Stanford University)
LARRY SAMUELSON (Yale University)

Jan 05, 2014 10:15 am, Pennsylvania Convention Center, 204-A 
American Economic Association
Market Design for Auction Markets (D7)
PresidingPAUL MILGROM (Stanford University)
The VCG Auction in Theory and in Practice
HAL VARIAN (Google)
CHRIS HARRIS (Google)
[View Abstract]
Market Design and the Evolution of the Combinatorial Clock Auction
LAWRENCE AUSUBEL (University of Maryland)
OLEG BARANOV (University of Colorado)
[View Abstract]
The Continuous Combinatorial Ascending Price Auction
CHARLES R. PLOTT (California Institute of Technology)
[View Abstract]
Deferred Acceptance Heuristic Auctions and United States Spectrum Repurposing
PAUL MILGROM (Stanford University)
ILYA SEGAL (Stanford University)
[View Abstract]
Discussants:
ALVIN E. ROTH (Stanford University)
TAYFUN SONMEZ (Boston College)

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Paul Milgrom and Roger Myerson on matching and market design at lunch today

I gather that Lloyd Shapley won't be making the trip to Philadelphia, so I'll be standing in for the two of us.

Jan 04, 2014 12:30 pm, Philadelphia Marriott, Grand Ballroom - Salons G & H 
American Economic Association
Nobel Laureate Luncheon
PresidingWILLIAM NORDHAUS (Yale University)
PAUL MILGROM (Stanford University)
ROGER MYERSON (University of Chicago)

Friday, January 3, 2014

Market design experiments today in Philadelphia


Jan 03, 2014 10:15 am, Philadelphia Marriott, Meeting Room 307 
Economic Science Association
Market Design Experiments (C9)
PresidingJACOB GOEREE (University of Zurich)
From Boston to Chinese Parallel to Deferred Acceptance: Theory and Experiments on a Family of School Choice Mechanisms
YAN CHEN (University of Michigan)
ONUR KESTEN (Carnegie Mellon University)
[View Abstract]
Opt-In versus Mandated Choice for Deceased Organ Donation: An Experimental Study of Actual Organ Donation Decisions
ALVIN E. Roth (Stanford University)
JUDD KESSLER (University of Pennsylvania)
[View Abstract]
Ascending Prices and Package Bidding: Further Experimental Analysis
JOHN H. KAGEL (Ohio State University)
YUANCHUAN LIEN (Hong Kong University of Science & Technology)
PAUL MILGROM (Stanford University)
[View Abstract] [Download Preview]
Spectrum Auction Design: Simple Auctions for Complex Sales
MARTIN BICHLER (Technical University Munich)
JACOB K. GOEREE (University of Zurich)
STEFAN MAYER (Technical University Munich)
PASHA SHABALIN (Technical University Munich)
[View Abstract] [Download Preview]
Discussants:
SCOTT DUKE KOMINERS (University of Chicago)
ERIC GLEN WEYL (University of Chicago)
CARY DECK (University of Arkansas)
TOM WILKENING (University of Melbourne)
************

Later in the day there will be another experimental session sponsored by the ESA, and another tomorrow...:

Jan 03, 2014 2:30 pm, Philadelphia Marriott, Meeting Room 307
Economic Science Association
Experiments in Economic Development
Presiding: PAULINE GROSJEAN (University of New South Wales)

Institutional Quality, Culture, and Norms of Cooperation: Evidence from a Behavioral Field Experiment
PAULINE GROSJEAN (University of New South Wales)
ALESSANDRA CASSAR (University of San Francisco)
GIOVANNA D'ADDA (University of Birmingham)

Trust and Social Collateral: Empirical Evidence
TANYA S. ROSENBLAT (Iowa State University)
DEAN KARLAN (Yale University)
MARKUS M. MOBIUS (Iowa State University, NBER and Microsoft Research)
ADAM SZEIDL (Central European University)

Health Providers and Patients in Kenya: An Evaluation of Motivations, Interactions and Reports on Sub-Par Behaviors
DANILA SERRA (Southern Methodist University)
ISAAC MBITI (Southern Methodist University)
 ********

Jan 04, 2014 8:00 am, Philadelphia Marriott, Meeting Room 307
Economic Science Association
Identifying Time Preferences from Lab and Field Data
Presiding: CHARLES SPRENGER (Stanford University)

A Perspective on Measuring Discounting and Present Bias
JAMES ANDREONI (University of California-San Diego)

Recent Developments in the Measurement of Time Preferences
GLENN W. HARRISON (Georgia State University)

Identifying Self Control in Field Data
SENDHIL MULLANAITHAN (Harvard University)
SUPREET KAUR (Columbia University)
MICHAEL KREMER (Harvard University)

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Markets for blood, milk, and sperm (new book)

Here's the announcement of a forthcoming book from Harvard University Press (by Professor Kara Swanson, whose earlier papers include The Birth of the Sperm Bank):

Banking on the Body

The Market in Blood, Milk, and Sperm in Modern America

Not yet available

Book Details

HARDCOVER
$35.00 • £25.95 • €31.50
ISBN 9780674281431
Publication: May 2014
Available 05/05/2014
310 pages
6-1/8 x 9-1/4 inches
10 halftones
World
Scientific advances and economic forces have converged to create something unthinkable for much of human history: a robust market in human body products. Every year, countless Americans supply blood, sperm, and breast milk to “banks” that store these products for later use by strangers in routine medical procedures. These exchanges entail complicated questions. Which body products are donated and which sold? Who gives and who receives? And, in the end, who profits? In this eye-opening study, Kara Swanson traces the history of body banks from the nineteenth-century experiments that discovered therapeutic uses for body products to twenty-first-century websites that facilitate a thriving global exchange.
More than a metaphor, the “bank” has shaped ongoing controversies over body products as either marketable commodities or gifts donated to help others. A physician, Dr. Bernard Fantus, proposed a “bank” in 1937 to make blood available to all patients. Yet the bank metaphor labeled blood as something to be commercially bought and sold, not communally shared. As blood banks became a fixture of medicine after World War II, American doctors made them a frontline in their war against socialized medicine. The profit-making connotations of the “bank” reinforced a market-based understanding of supply and distribution, with unexpected consequences for all body products, from human eggs to kidneys.
Ultimately, the bank metaphor straitjacketed legal codes and reinforced inequalities in medical care. By exploring its past, Banking on the Body charts the path to a more efficient and less exploitative distribution of the human body’s life-giving potential.
Here's the table of contents:
  • Introduction: Banking for Love and for Money
  • 1. Bankable Bodies and the Professional Donor
  • 2. Banks That Take Donations
  • 3. Blood Battles in the Cold War
  • 4. Market Backlash
  • 5. Feminine Banks and the Milk of Human Kindness
  • 6. Buying Dad from the Sperm Bank
  • Conclusion: Beyond the Body Bank

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Cornes and Neto celebrate Gale and Shapley, and the practical value of good theory

Here's a paper that points out that there's nothing more practical--even for policy--than good theory, and that it might be hard to guess where that will come from.

I was struck not just by the title of the paper, but by the parenthetical comment in the first sentence of the abstract...

Is Policy Too Important to be Left to Empiricists? Lessons of the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics
Richard Cornes and José A. Rodrigues-Neto

Abstract
Fifty years ago, a paper entitled ‘College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage’was published in a somewhat obscure journal, the American Mathematical Monthly (currently a ‘B’ journal, according to the Australian Business Deans Council). The research program and policy developments that have flowed from that abstract and apparently slight seven-page paper recently led to the award of  the 2012 Nobel Prize for Economics to one of its authors, Lloyd Shapley. (Shapley’s co-author, David Gale, died in 2008.) Shapley shared the Nobel Prize ‘for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design’ with US economist Alvin Roth, who has been responsible for much of the applied work that has built on Gale and Shapley’s insights. The history of the path leading from the abstract Gale/Shapley insights to the design of resource allocation mechanisms in 2012 is a fascinating and instructive one for many reasons. This article tries to give the reader an idea of what this literature is about, and of the many ways in which Matching Theory has led to real improvements in the design of operational resource-allocation mechanisms.
**************

The article makes some points about how funny sounding theory can turn into practical institutions that were also made in the recent Golden Goose awards (see this post and this one).

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Iguassu falls, by night and day

A recent trip to the Iguassu falls, where the full moon made a lunar rainbow in the permanent mist around the falls, was a bookend to a remarkable year.



Monday, December 30, 2013

Exeter Prize: Congratulations to Dan Friedman and Ryan Oprea

Congrats to Dan Friedman and Ryan Oprea, for the news that came this morning about their 2012 AER paper A continuous dilemma. Here's the email:

"Dear colleagues,

We are happy to announce the winner of the 2013 Exeter Prize for the best paper published in the previous calendar year in a peer-reviewed journal in the fields of Experimental Economics, Behavioural Economics and Decision Theory.
The winner is Daniel Friedman and Ryan Opera for their paper “A Continuous Dilemma” by published in American Economic Review.
This paper is an excellent complementary use of theory and experiments that significantly adds to our understanding of one of the fundamental problems in game theory. It is an important study that will stand the test of time.
The winning paper was selected by the panel of Glenn Harrison (Georgia State University), Izhak Gilboa (Tel Aviv University) and Shmuel Zamir (Hebrew University and the University of Exeter).
The winners receive 3000 pounds. In addition, a representative of them will be visiting the University of Exeter in May to receive the award and give a lecture.
This year was exceptionally competitive with a large number of excellent nominations. As stated above the best paper was awarded from the following fields: Experimental Economics, Behavioural Economics and Decision Theory and papers qualified under one of the following categories:
1. Any paper that involves either lab or field experiments. 
2. Any purely theoretical paper that involves "behavioral" theory
(for example, non-expected utility).
3. Any empirical work that shows evidence for behavioral models (that
fit under 2) or tests/rejects models (that fit under 2).

Miguel Fonseca
Todd Kaplan
Eva Poen"

Two countries divided by a common language: translating English into American

The article (by Tim Parks) Learning to Speak American, about copyediting an English writer's English for an American audience, has some hidden lessons about friction in international trade.

Here's his first paragraph:
"In 1993 I translated all 450 pages of Roberto Calasso’s The Marriage of Cadmus & Harmony without ever using the past participle of the verb “get.” The book was to be published simultaneously by Knopf in New York and Jonathan Cape in London; to save money both editions were to be printed from the same galleys; so it would be important, I was told, to avoid any usages that might strike American readers as distractingly English or English readers as distractingly American. To my English ear “gotten” yells America and alters the whole feel of a sentence. I presumed it would be the same the other way round for Americans."

And this:
"Despite my hailing from England—a country that still uses miles—I had expressed distances in meters and kilometers and it seemed odd now to find my Italian characters speaking to each other about yards and miles and, of course, Fahrenheit, which they never would. Or saying AM and PM, rather than using the twenty-four-hour clock as they mostly do, even in ordinary conversation. Slowly, as well as being concerned that some sentences were now feeling clunky and odd, I began to wonder if American readers really needed or demanded this level of protection. Wouldn’t they soon figure out, if I said “the temperature was up in the sizzling thirties,” that I was talking Celsius? Or at least that in another part of the world people had another system for measuring temperature where thirty was considered warm? Mightn’t it be fascinating for them to be reminded that the twenty-four-hour clock, which Americans usually associate with military operations, has long been in standard civilian usage in Europe? Italy introduced it as early as 1893."
...
"America is very much a net exporter of literature. Its novels are read and translated worldwide, where readers generally accept miles and Fahrenheit, pounds and ounces, AM and PM and indeed have grown accustomed to these old-fashioned, American oddities (when it comes to doing science, of course, Americans use the more practical European systems). In Germany, for example, where around fifty percent of novels are foreign works in translation, Roth’s and Franzen’s characters are not obliged to discuss distances in kilometers.

Conversely, America imports very little—only three to four percent of novels published in the States are translations—and what it does import it tends to transform as far as possible into its own formulas and notations, in much the same way that Disney has turned every fable and myth worldwide into a version of Mickey Mouse. "

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Alternatives to the NBA draft?

Scott Cunningham points me to this proposal to change the way professional basketball teams acquire new players. The present system rewards teams for poor performance by giving teams that lose lots of games a higher probability of very early draft choices. Early draft choices are important, because basketball is a game in which a single player can have a very big influence on team performance, and a small number of players are very good while still very young. So there may be an incentive, for a team having a poor season, to "tank" and try to be the worst team in order to have the highest probability of the first draft pick. The proposal would be to make draft choices independent of performance, and instead to alternate draft choices in a fixed schedule: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel
************

For more about the current draft system and how it is connected to player salaries, see Alicia Jessop on The Structure of NBA Rookie Contracts

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Repugnance as a constraint on markets in Spanish

La repugnancia como limitación de los mercados (a translation of my 2007 JEP article)

Dendra Médica. Revista de Humanidades 2013; 12(1):80-105

Friday, December 27, 2013

Topology lesson from the school of hard knocks (rhymes with bicycle locks)

I noticed this as I carefully locked up my bike the other day: all that remained of the bike next to mine was the connected component (the lock went through the spokes, but not even around the rim and tire of the front wheel).


Thursday, December 26, 2013

Forthcoming book on the Iranian kidney transplant market

Carolina Academic Press is advertising a forthcoming book,

The Kidney Sellers

A Journey of Discovery in Iran

Their blurb:
Rarely does an adventure story carry such social significance as in this groundbreaking ethnographic research book. Dr. Fry-Revere’s exploration of the medical ethics of compensating organ donors takes us deep inside Iranian culture to provide insight and understanding into how Iran has solved its kidney shortage. The Kidney Sellers: A Journey of Discovery in Iran addresses the question: How it is possible that in Iran there is a waiting list to be a donor, while in the United States hundreds of thousands of people have died­ for lack of a kidney?

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Kidney Exchange at Alliance for Paired Donation nominated for Edelman Prize in OR

Here's the press release, which states in part:
CATONSVILLE, MD, December 17, 2013 – The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS®) proudly announces the six finalist organizations that will compete for the 2014 INFORMS Franz Edelman Prize. The Prize is the world’s most prestigious recognition for excellence in applying advanced analytics to benefit business and humanitarian outcomes. 
This year’s finalists are:
  1. Twitter, with Stanford University, for “The ‘Who to Follow’ System at Twitter: Strategy, Algorithms, and Revenue Impact.”
  2. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with Kid Risk, Inc.,for “Using Integrated Analytical Models to Support Global Health Policies to Manage Vaccine Preventable Diseases: Polio Eradication and Beyond.”
  3. The Energy Authority for “Hydroelectric Generation and Water Routing Optimizer.”
  4. Grady Memorial Hospital, with the Georgia Institute of Technology,for “Modeling and Optimizing Emergency Department Workflow.”
  5. Kidney Exchange at the Alliance for Paired Donation, with Stanford and MIT,for “Kidney Exchange.”
  6. NBN Company, with Biarri, for “Fiber Optic Network Optimization at NBN Co.”
Now in its 43rd year, the INFORMS Franz Edelman Prize competition recognizes outstanding examples of analytics and operations research projects that transform companies, entire industries and people’s lives. Using innovative advanced analytical methods, the teams were instrumental in helping their respective institutions make better decisions, providing a disciplined way by which management can improve organizational performance in a wide variety of situations and across both public and private organizations.  
INFORMS Franz Edelman finalist teams have contributed over $200 billion in benefits to business and the public interest. The 2014 INFORMS Franz Edelman Prize finalists were chosen after a rigorous review by accomplished verifiers, all of whom have led successful analytics projects. The verifiers come from IBM, BNSF, Bank of America, Verizon Wireless, HP, Eastman Chemical, Columbia University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Chicago, the University of Chile, and other noted organizations. Finalists are chosen on the merits of how analytics methodologies were applied to solve problems, reduce costs, or otherwise improve results in real-world environments. 
Update: note that the press release mistakenly omits Boston College from the institutions associated with kidney exchange.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

A Royal Pardon for Alan Turing takes effect today

Here's a chilling story from the BBC about the great Alan Turing, who effective today is pardoned in Britain from his 1952 conviction for homosexuality. The ghost of Christmas past reminds us that what is regarded as repugnant can reverse itself over time.

Royal pardon for codebreaker Alan Turing

"Computer pioneer and codebreaker Alan Turing has been given a posthumous royal pardon.

"It overturns his 1952 conviction for homosexuality for which he was punished by being chemically castrated.

"The conviction meant he lost his security clearance and had to stop the code-cracking work that proved critical to the Allies in World War II.

"The pardon was granted under the Royal Prerogative of Mercy after a request by Justice Minister Chris Grayling.

...
"Turing's work helped accelerate Allied efforts to read German Naval messages enciphered with the Enigma machine. He also contributed some more fundamental work on codebreaking that was only released to public scrutiny in April 2012.

"His later life was overshadowed by his conviction for homosexual activity, a sentence we would now consider unjust and discriminatory and which has now been repealed," said Mr Grayling.

"Turing deserves to be remembered and recognised for his fantastic contribution to the war effort and his legacy to science. A pardon from the Queen is a fitting tribute to an exceptional man."

The pardon comes into effect on 24 December."

Monday, December 23, 2013

Peter Singer on charitable giving

In the Washington Post: Heartwarming causes are nice, but let’s give to charity with our heads

"You’d have to be a real spoilsport not to feel good about Batkid. If the sight of 20,000 people joining in last month to help the Make-A-Wish Foundation and the city of San Francisco fulfill the superhero fantasies of a 5-year-old — and not just any 5-year-old, but one who has been battling a life-threatening disease — doesn’t warm your heart, you must be numb to basic human emotions.

Yet we can still ask if these emotions are the best guide to what we ought to do. According to Make-A-Wish, the average cost of realizing the wish of a child with a life-threatening illness is $7,500. That sum, if donated to the Against Malaria Foundation and used to provide bed nets to families in malaria-prone regions, could save the lives of at least two or three children (and that’s a conservative estimate). If donated to the Fistula Foundation, it could pay for surgeries for approximately 17 young mothers who, without that assistance, will be unable to prevent their bodily wastes from leaking through their vaginas and hence are likely to be outcasts for the rest of their lives. If donated to the Seva Foundation to treat trachoma and other common causes of blindness in developing countries, it could protect 100 children from losing their sight as they grow older."

Sunday, December 22, 2013

The evolution of eBay

Once eBay was primarily an auction site...a story by Jeff Himmelman in the NY Times Sunday magazine brings us up to date: EBay’s Strategy for Taking On Amazon

"Most people think of eBay as an online auction house, the world’s biggest garage sale, which it has been for most of its life. But since Donahoe took over in 2008, he has slowly moved the company beyond auctions, developing technology partnerships with big retailers like Home Depot, Macy’s, Toys ‘‘R’’ Us and Target and expanding eBay’s online marketplace to include reliable, returnable goods at fixed prices. (Auctions currently represent just 30 percent of the purchases made at eBay.com; the site sells 13,000 cars a week through its mobile app alone, many at fixed prices.)

Under Donahoe, eBay has made 34 acquisitions over the last five years, most of them to provide the company and its retail partners with enhanced technology. EBay can help with the back end of websites, create interactive storefronts in real-world locations, streamline the electronic-payment process or help monitor inventory in real time. (Outsourcing some of the digital strategy and technological operations to eBay frees up companies to focus on what they presumably do best: Make and market their own products.) In select cities, eBay has also recently introduced eBay Now, an app that allows you to order goods from participating local vendors and have them delivered to your door in about an hour for a $5 fee. The company is betting its future on the idea that its interactive technology can turn shopping into a kind of entertainment, or at least make commerce something more than simply working through price-plus-shipping calculations. If eBay can get enough people into Dick’s Sporting Goods to try out a new set of golf clubs and then get them to buy those clubs in the store, instead of from Amazon, there’s a business model there.

A key element of eBay’s vision of the future is the digital wallet. On a basic level, having a ‘‘digital wallet’’ means paying with your phone, but it’s about a lot more than that; it’s as much a concept as a product. EBay bought PayPal in 2002, after PayPal established itself as a safe way to transfer money between people who didn’t know each other (thus facilitating eBay purchases). For the last several years, eBay has regarded digital payments through mobile devices as having the potential to change everything — to become, as David Marcus, PayPal’s president, puts it, ‘‘Money 3.0.’’'
...
"The best current example of the digital wallet’s promise, according to many in Silicon Valley, is Uber, a digital platform that connects riders and drivers. You enter your credit-card information into the Uber app once, and then every time you want to use it, the app knows where you are and shows you how many cars are nearby and how soon one can be available. You order with one touch on a mobile screen, and a text lets you know a driver is on the way and then another tells you when he’s near. He greets you by name, you tell him where you want to go and then, when you are dropped off, there is no further exchange — no tip, no receipt, no signing anything. The app takes care of all that for you. Uber didn’t change anything about the nature of cars or how they are driven. It just figured out how to use data and technology to make what was out there work much more efficiently. (EBay, through its acquisition of the company Shutl, has begun to exploit a similar inefficiency in the spare capacity of courier companies.)
...
"‘‘It’s not about payment,’’ Jack Dorsey, a founder of Square, a PayPal competitor, says. ‘‘It’s about identity. And it’s about the experience that a merchant can create, which is what actually builds loyalty. We believe that it’s important that the technology, the mechanics of payments, actually fade away to the background. They disappear completely.’’ After helping found Twitter in 2006, Dorsey became chief executive of Square in 2009. Its initial innovation was the Square Reader, a small device that plugs into the headphone jack of a smartphone or tablet and enables anyone, anywhere, to process a credit-card payment. (PayPal now has a similar reader.) In 2011, Square introduced what would become known as the Square Wallet, an app that links to a credit card (as Uber does) and allows consumers to pay either by holding their phones up to a scanner or, in some cases, simply by having the phones on in their pockets. Dorsey talks about how cool it is to get your coffee without having to do anything, but he also emphasizes what it means for the merchants. ‘‘The seller gets this very interesting tool,’’ he says. ‘‘They can recognize me when I walk in.’’ 

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Repugnance watch: same sex marriage isn't coming soon to Uganda

Yesterday's post noted that New Mexico had become the 17th U.S. state to recognize same sex marriage. At the same time it noted that even more U.S. states have passed constitutional amendments prohibiting it. However the battle over whether same sex marriage--or same sex sex for that matter--should be considered repugnant transactions takes a far more lethal turn in Africa. Here's the latest on that from the BBC:
Ugandan MPs pass life in jail anti-homosexual law

"Uganda's parliament has passed a bill to toughen the punishment for homosexual acts to include life imprisonment in some cases.

"The anti-homosexuality bill also makes it a crime punishable by a prison sentence not to report gay people.

"The prime minister opposed the vote, saying not enough MPs were present.

"The bill has been condemned by world leaders since it was mooted in 2009 - US President Barack Obama called it "odious"."

Friday, December 20, 2013

And then there were 17 states that have same sex marriage

New Mexico Becomes 17th State to Allow Gay Marriage

"The New Mexico Supreme Court unanimously affirmed on Thursday the right of same-sex partners to marry in the state, reasoning that the “protections and responsibilities that result from the marital relationship shall apply equally” to them and to opposite-sex couples.

"With the ruling, which takes effect immediately, New Mexico becomes one of 17 states and the District of Columbia to permit same-sex marriage. Thirty-three states limit marriage to opposite-sex couples. "

United States Map

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Kidney exchange in Vienna

Here's an article discussing a simple paired exchange in Vienna, with plans to move soon to chains. It sounds like the last link in the chain of ideas and computer code led from Australia to Austria.

"The problem of incompatibility is solved by pairs (married couples, siblings, mother and child, friends, etc.) being selected using a new computing algorithm, which was developed in Australia and evaluated at the MedUni Vienna in a newly published pilot study, in which the organ donation is made possible in a "crossover." This means that each donor, whose kidney is not suitable for their own intended recipient, donates the organ to a stranger, the recipient in another pair and vice versa."

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The sale of kidneys in Iran: a report from Shiraz

A recent article, and an accompanying editorial, in the American Journal of Transplantation concern the health of kidney sellers in Iran, based on a comparison of paid donors with unpaid related living donors at the Shiraz Transplant Center in Iran.

The article is Comparison of Health Status and Quality of Life of Related Versus Paid Unrelated Living Kidney Donors  by M. K. Fallahzadeh, L. Jafari, J. Roozbeh, N. Singh2, H. Shokouh-Amiri, S. Behzadi, G. A. Rais-Jalali1, M. Salehipour, S. A. Malekhosseini1, M. M. Sagheb

Abstract
The aim of this cross-sectional study was to assess the health status and quality of life (QOL) of paid unrelated versus related living kidney donors postdonation at Shiraz Transplant Center in Iran. We invited all donors (n = 580, 347 paid unrelated, 233 related) who underwent donor nephrectomy at our center from 2004 to 2010 to participate in a health survey and physical examination. Of 580 donors, 144 consented to participate; participation of paid unrelated donors was significantly lower than related (52/347 vs. 92/233; p < 0.001). Participants underwent a complete physical examination, QOL assessment (using a 36-item short form health survey [SF-36] questionnaire) and laboratory work-up. The paid unrelated donors compared with related donors were younger (34.2 ± 7.2 vs. 40.7 ± 9.7 years, p < 0.001), had shorter time since donation (2.9 ± 1.6 vs. 3.8 ± 2 years, p = 0.004), had higher estimated GFR (72.6 ± 22 vs. 63.8 ± 15.3 mL/min/1.73 m2, p = 0.006) and had a higher percentage of patients with microalbuminuria (35% vs. 0%, p < 0.001). Additionally, general health and social functioning scores among paid unrelated donors were significantly lower (p < 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively) than related donors. Other SF-36 scores, although lower in paid unrelated donors, did not reach statistical significance. Iranian paid unrelated donors have lower QOL and higher incidence of microalbuminuria compared with related donors.


In their concluding discussion the authors note
"To our knowledge, this is the first study comparing the health status and HRQOL of Iranian PUKDs with those of LRKDs. Our results show that Iranian PUKDs, compared with LRKDs, have poor follow-up, lower HRQOL scores and higher incidence of microalbuminuria.

One of the major drawbacks of the Iranian model of living donor kidney transplantation is the lack of long-term follow-up of LKDs [2, 3]. In our study, the rate of participation of PUKDs was significantly lower than LRKDs. Similarly, in a previous report from Iran, only 6 of 500 LKDs who were invited to participate in a health survey responded [2]. In another Iranian study, a majority (79%) of PUKDs were reported to have no regular follow-up after donation [6]. Inability to pay for follow-up visits, and insufficient knowledge of the complications of the nephrectomy and the need for regular follow-up postdonation have been suggested as the major reasons for lack of long-term follow-up among PUKDs [2, 6, 9]. Educating the LKDs, providing an extended long-term government sponsored medical insurance program beyond 1 year, and probably even payment for clinic visits could enhance their adherence with postdonation follow-up."
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The accompanying editorial is Where There Is Smoke There Is Fire: The Iranian System of Paid Donation by E. J. Gordon, J. S. Gill

"Nearly 30 years after its introduction, the Iranian model remains an enigma to the Western transplant community. Established in 1988, the government-funded, compensated living unrelated kidney donor program was Iran's answer for its urgent transplantation needs. The modest fixed sum (currently about $400 US dollars) provided by the government was intended as a reward rather than as a payment for the donated kidney. The real incentive for those who have submitted to nephrectomy was a supplementary payment negotiated directly between the recipient and living donor (typically in the amount of $10 000 US dollars). Putative oversight by a not-for-profit organization maintains a buyer's market by providing a back-up donor in the event that a recipient and potential donor cannot agree on a price. The government pays for all transplant-related expenses and provides the donor with medical coverage for 1 year after the nephrectomy. It is worth noting that such depictions of the Iranian model have been contested as disingenuous by members of the Iranian transplant community [1]. Accordingly, one must interpret any analyses of the Iranian model with caution.

Predictably, critics of commercialization have opposed the program primarily out of concerns of exploitation and disrespect for human integrity [2, 3]. Aside from such opposition, the model fails to meet many of the proposed standards for a regulated system of organ sales, including nondirected donations, provisions to ensure long-term donor follow-up, and access to health care [4]. Despite the facilitation of tens of thousands of transplants, the lack of public reporting and transparency have precluded acceptance of the Iranian model as a solution to the organ shortage internationally, and have fueled questions about the integrity of the program.

The report by Fallahzadeh et al [5] in this issue of the journal provides a novel glimpse into the Iranian model. The study shares many of the limitations of other studies from Iran, including a small and selected study sample. However, their identification of a difference in microalbuminuria postnephrectomy between paid and unpaid donors fuels concerns that the clinical evaluation of donors may be compromised when donor payments are allowed. Although the absence of prenephrectomy information precludes definitive conclusions, the short time since donation suggests that abnormalities may have been present prior to nephrectomy and accordingly, that the donor clinical evaluation may not have been as thorough as necessary. The potential presence of predonation abnormalities is worth considering given the ethical ramifications. A scrupulous pretransplant evaluation and conservative approach to donor acceptance may be particularly important for paid donors who may be vulnerable to adverse health outcomes for other reasons. Subjecting paid donors to unnecessary harms without sufficient safeguards in place during the evaluation process tips the delicate risk–benefit balance against living donation.

The most plausible alternative explanation for the findings is that the proteinuria was in some way related to the higher level of poverty in the paid donors. There is limited research to suggest a link between poverty and development of proteinuria in living donors. In a cross-sectional study of living related donors from Hyderabad, India, 40% of the 50 donors studied developed microalbuminuria, and 14% developed overt proteinuria (>300 mg/day) after an average of 63 months postdonation [6]. Irrespective of the basis for the observed difference, it is not clear that the Iranian system will financially support the authors' recommendation for long-term follow-up of the individuals who developed microalbuminuria in the study.

Sadly, the risk factors for and clinical significance of proteinuria in living kidney donors remain unclear. The existing literature on this subject is hampered by use of nonstandardized definitions, a paucity of controlled studies, and virtually no information regarding progression over time. Therefore, although it is tempting to criticize the lack of organized donor follow-up in the Iranian model, to do so would be hypocritical [7]. The findings of this study therefore serve as a reminder of our collective responsibility to better understand the long-term consequences of living kidney donation.

The findings of Fallahzadeh et al [5] add to the accumulating literature that there are problems with the existing Iranian model and that the program must evolve. It is clear that the majority of paid donors are poor males, whose quality of life after nephrectomy is lower than that of the general Iranian population, and who are frequently dissatisfied with their decision to undergo nephrectomy [8]. Further, the program has been a contributing factor limiting the advancement of deceased donation and living related donation in Iran. For these reasons, a program that was once justified on the basis of need, may now be a barrier to the advancement of transplantation in Iran. How much harm to living donors' health and quality of life should Iranian transplant centers tolerate? As transplant centers are responsible for ethically sound clinical care, all potential living donors must be assured a high standard of clinical and psychosocial evaluation before the Iranian model can publicize its success.

As Fallahzadeh et al [5] point out, studies have found that few paid unrelated donors undergo follow-up care due to insufficient finances to pay for care, and donors lack knowledge about living donor complications or the need for follow-up care [9, 10]. Accordingly, transplant centers operating within the Iranian model should take extra care to optimally inform donors about the short- and long-term complications of living donation, as well as inform, encourage and enable living donors, particularly donors most at risk—paid unrelated donors—to undergo long-term follow-up care. The government's provision of health insurance to living donors for 1 year is a start toward removing some of the disincentives to donation; however, the recognition of paid donors as a particularly vulnerable group behooves the government to provide long-term follow-up care.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Design of bitcoin

Here's a nice tutorial by Michael Nielsen on some of the main design elements of the market for bitcoins (and other digital currency): How the Bitcoin protocol actually works

Here is the original bitcoin paper:
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System by Satoshi Nakamoto