Monday, August 19, 2024

Uterus transplants--update

Reproductive options continue to grow... Here's an update on transplantation of the uterus.

Uterus Transplant in Women With Absolute Uterine-Factor Infertility, by Giuliano Testa, MD, MBA1; Greg J. McKenna, MD1; Anji Wall, MD, PhD1; et alJohanna Bayer, MD1; Anthony R. Gregg, MD2; Ann Marie Warren, PhD3,4; Seung Hee S. Lee, MD1; Eric Martinez, MD1; Amar Gupta, MD1; Robert Gunby, MD2; Liza Johannesson, MD, PhD1,5, JAMA. Published online August 15, 2024. doi:10.1001/jama.2024.11679

"Assisted reproductive technologies have provided millions of women with fertility options. However, absolute uterine infertility, affecting 1 in 500 women, remains a barrier in reproductive medicine. Absolute uterine infertility can be acquired or congenital and due to either a dysfunctional or an absent uterus. Affected women who want to have children traditionally choose between adoption or surrogacy where legally available. The development of uterus transplant offers an option for women with absolute uterine infertility to experience pregnancy and childbirth. Since the first successful uterus transplant in 2011,1 more than 100 uterus transplant procedures have been performed worldwide, using grafts from living or deceased donors. Although no registry exists that precisely reports the number of live births resulting from these procedures, it is estimated that there are more than 70 live births worldwide.2,3 As of May 1, 2024, there have been 48 uterus transplants and 33 live births in the US."

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Incentives for blood donation in China

 College students have serious (and competitive) incentives to donate blood in China.  This is from Ariana Tang's blog

blood donation bonus points for scholarship credits

"Incentives and Care for Blood Donating Students and Faculty at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

"Students and faculty who participate in voluntary blood donation will receive a blood donation care package. This package includes a blood donation care card loaded with a nutrition subsidy of 220 RMB (previously, a 20 RMB meal subsidy was added to the care card). This card can be used at various campus restaurants and supermarkets.

"Additionally, the package contains a snack worth 40 RMB. Students who participate in voluntary blood donation will also receive an extra 0.5 points towards their scholarship.

"[translated excerpts from the official call-to-donation announcement, original file (in Chinese) archived here]

"scholarship system mechanics

"Key points: (1) scholarships are awarded by ranking of a score, and blood donation bonus is often a tie-breaker (2) scholarships are very important, and competitive.

"The major scholarship that students compete for—the ‘People’s Scholarship’ issued by the National Bureau of Education—quota is allocated to each class according to a designated ratio. For example, I compete among the pilot class with a total of 18 students for the following quota:

First-place: 18*2% = 0.36 -> 1 person.

Second-place 18*6% = 1.08 -> 1 person.

Third-place: 18*12% = 2.16 -> 2 person.

Students are ranked by their ‘comprehensive evaluation score’ which is mainly a weighted sum of their grades, physical exercises, adding a ‘bonus points’ which includes the aforementioned blood donation incentive:

...

"Notably, students can earn up to 0.5 points for each voluntary blood donation, with the potential to accumulate 1 point for two donations within a year.


...

competitions

The bonus from blood donations can decisively influence scholarship outcomes"

...

"the donation rush

"Scholarship is not only about money. The mental value that it carries, and more importantly, winning the ‘People’s Scholarship’ is a necessary for applying for further honors. Because of this huge incentive, students rush to get their blood donated.

"Given the scarcity of blood donation opportunities—only five to six campus visits yearly by the Shanghai blood center, each time offering around 150-200 quotas—students often queue from as early as 6 a.m. to secure a donation form. Latecomers, even those arriving slightly past 7 a.m., risk missing out due to the limited number of forms available.

"I’ve been there. Only got a form the second time."


Saturday, August 17, 2024

Interview with Daron Acemoglu – on AI and crypto

 Interview with Daron Acemoglu – Frank Pagano

"What exponential technologies will change our world, in your opinion, by 2030 – between Blockchain, AI, Spatial Computing, Quantum?

"Difficult to say. All of these are highly hyped. Which technologies will flourish and find impactful applications remains to be seen. I don’t believe that blockchain has the potential to have pervasive effects except in a few narrow applications. AI is a different story. Even though much of what is written and said about AI is an exaggeration, there is no doubt that AI is advancing rapidly, and it is being rolled out in many sectors. Just on that basis, I expect it will impact many sectors of the economy, including social media, communication and human resource management. Whether it can penetrate other activities, such as finance, law, education and healthcare remain to be seen. More importantly, even if it does become widely used in sectors such as education and healthcare, there is a big difference between good use and bad use. For example, rolling out ChatGPT to millions of students and encouraging them to learn from the chatbot rather than their teachers is easy. Making sure that they learn the right material and learn effectively is much harder.

...

"Do you think the financial and banking system will accept at some point crypto, or even just bitcoin? What’s your take on the future of the financial system, which should be open for all, and where financial fees should become a commodity, namely equal to zero?

"I hope not. Right now, cryptocurrencies are valuable for three simple reasons: they permit illicit activities; there is some premium because if one of them becomes widely accepted, the company in charge of it would become fabulously wealthy; and there is a bubble component to many cryptocurrencies, with gullible investors sometimes being encouraged to pay excessive valuations for some currencies. None of those sources of valuation are socially beneficial. My view is that cryptocurrencies could be useful in some very narrow circumstances, but they should be very heavily regulated."

Friday, August 16, 2024

Preference signaling in the Political Science job market

 There is now signaling in the Political Science job market:  They allow job candidates to send up to three signals: here's the APSA's page with frequently asked questions about signaling.

Aside from the procedures APSA members should use, their site offers some general comments about signaling. Some excerpts:

What is the history of signaling as applied to specialized labor markets like that for political science PhDs?

 The American Economics Association (AEA) Ad Hoc Committee on the Job Market, including Roth, applied his research to the economics PhDs job market over 15 years ago. Since the 1970s, the job market for economists has been organized around the AEA and related associations’ annual meeting (called the Allied Social Sciences Associations, or the “ASSA”) in January and since 2006, economists have utilized signaling for job interviews that take place at the ASSA. For those who don’t secure a position there, a job “scramble” that is more public takes place later in the spring. These events act as clearinghouses to clear congestion resulting from candidates applying for almost all positions due to their need to secure a position, and also prevents “unraveling,” where employers make offers earlier and earlier each year to get the best possible candidate they can.[1] The AEA Ad Hoc Committee on the Job Market offers detailed advice on signaling for (economics) PhDs going on the job market here.

Why would the political science job market benefit from signaling?

The number of political science job postings per PhD on the job market has decreased considerably since 2011, when there were two job openings for each candidate as it recovered from the Great Recession.[1] After the COVID pandemic, the higher education job market seems to be showing signs that it is recovering more slowly, and political science is no exception to this trend. The behavior of the higher education job markets runs counter to the general labor market trend in the US where jobs are currently outnumbering jobseekers.[2]  Currently there are almost two candidates per job opening on APSA eJobs.[3] The political science job market is also congested in 2023. In the last few years, candidates have reported applying for upwards of 25-50, more than 51, or more than 100 positions in a job market cycle, making the possibilities for matches endless.[4]

After the job market at APSA’s Annual Meeting in September, the job market for political science PhDs is decentralized and thin, lacking a centralizing timeframe, location, or deadline, with the only way for candidates to let employers know they are interested is to contact the hiring committee or send in an application for the position. Jobs are being posted earlier each year to secure the best candidates by utilizing the APSA Annual Meeting as a job market clearinghouse. For the remainder of the academic year, those participating in the job market lack any kind of intentionally designed mechanism to structure their path to a job placement before the next academic year..[5] For all these reasons: a surplus of jobseekers, market congestion (applying to all jobs), market unraveling (earlier and earlier offers), the political science job market would benefit from being approached with the market design tools that have been shown to alleviate these inefficiencies.

How will signaling benefit candidates and employers at APSA Annual Meeting/ Interview Services?

 Due to job market congestion, the job market centralized around the APSA Annual Meeting/ Interview Services would benefit from a mechanism for candidates and employers to be able to decipher meaningful interest more easily from candidates for positions, and to allow institutions to view candidates more equally across characteristics outside of institutional prestige, rank, or publication records. Due to the large number of candidates relative to jobs, we believe signaling can increase the number of matches facilitated, decrease the number of applications both written and submitted by candidates and reviewed by hiring committees, and decrease the stress of all participants in the market. We have created a pilot program to beta test how signaling will work for employers and candidates utilizing Interview Services at the Annual Meeting.



Thursday, August 15, 2024

SITE: Empirical Market Design, today and Friday

 Session 10: Empirical Market Design  (schedule at the link)

Thu, Aug 15 2024, 8:00am - Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:00pm PDT

Organized by

Claudia Allende Santa Cruz, Stanford University

Adam Kapor, Princeton University

Paulo Somaini, Stanford University

Empirical Market Design is an emerging research field, blending the theoretical underpinnings of market design with novel empirical approaches that are sometimes related to those used applied microeconomics, public economics, and industrial organization. This innovative approach aims to rigorously analyze and understand policy-relevant scenarios, with the focus on harnessing the efficiency and equity benefits of market forces. This session will include papers that employ empirical tools to design better markets and inform policy decisions, ultimately contributing to a more equitable and efficient outcomes.

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Olympic scorekeeping (choose your comparison set)

 There are many local angles to the coverage of the Olympics. Some of them have to do with scoring systems.  Here's a story from the WSJ that counts medals in a way that's familiar where I live...

Which College Won the Olympics?  At the Paris Games, there were medalists from more than 100 schools. But there was one college that outperformed most countries—again. By Ben Cohen, Andrew Beaton,  and  Joshua Robinson

"When the Paris Olympics ended on Sunday, the final medal table looked exactly the way that everyone around the world expected. Team USA was once again at the top, followed by China, Great Britain, host France, Australia, Japan, Italy—and Stanford. 

...

"Stanford took home 39 medals, more than double the number of any other U.S. school—and more than the Netherlands, South Korea, Germany and Canada. ...

Harvard did well too:

"The eggheads from Cambridge, Mass., might not be known for starring in mainstream sports, but they thrive once every four years, when fencing, rowing and triathlon become the focus of global attention. This year, Harvard won 13 medals because the Crimson also came up big on the track, where sprinter Gabby Thomas blasted her way to three golds, and on two wheels, as cyclist Kristen Faulkner took gold in the women’s road race and the velodrome. "

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

End Kidney Deaths Act intoduced in Congress

 Here's the press release from the Congressional sponsors:

Malliotakis Introduces Bipartisan End Kidney Deaths Act, August 12, 2024

"(WASHINGTON, DC) - Today Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis (NY-11) joined Reps. Don Bacon (NE-02), Josh Harder (CA-09) and Joe Neguse (CO-02) in introducing the End Kidney Deaths Act, bipartisan legislation that would provide a refundable tax credit to living kidney donors who donate kidneys to strangers, specifically those waiting the longest on the kidney waitlist.

"Specifically, the End Kidney Deaths Act will provide a $10,000 refundable tax credit per year for five years ($50,000 total) to living kidney donors who donate kidneys. If enacted, this legislation is expected to save up to 100,000 Americans currently on the waitlist and save taxpayers an estimated $10 to $37 billion."

...

VIEW THE BILL TEXT HERE

#########

And here's the Coalition to Modify NOTA 's press release(which includes quotes from some of their long list of supporters...)

LIFE-SAVING END KIDNEY DEATHS ACT INTRODUCED TO CONGRESS; PROJECTED TO SAVE 100K LIVES AND $37 BILLION OVER 10 YEARS

Washington DC – The End Kidney Deaths Act (H.R. 9275) has just been introduced by Congressional Representative Malliotakis (R-NY) and Representative Harder (D-CA). This bill will save up to 100,000 American lives and $37 billion tax dollars over the next decade by offering refundable tax credits to encourage living kidney donation in this ten-year pilot program. The End Kidney Deaths Act will provide all Americans who donate kidneys to strangers at the top of the kidney waitlist with a refundable tax credit of $10,000 each year for five years, totaling $50,000."

##########

Earlier:

Saturday, July 22, 2023

Monday, August 12, 2024

Kidney exchange in Brazil: prelude

 Yesterday I flew home from a busy visit to Brazil, with Mike Rees and Dr. Gustavo Ferreira.  




On Wednesday we all traveled to the capital, Brasilia, meeting with government ministries and agencies about how to move kidney exchange forward there.

Our most promising meeting on Wednesday was with the company that organizes the hospitals associated with Brazil's Federal universities. We talked about research possibilities

Wednesday Aug 7: Brazilian Hospital Services Company


Our most important meeting was on Thursday with the Ministry of Health  We talked about how clinical trials of kidney exchange in Brazil could help guide changes in Brazil's organ transplant laws and regulations.

Thursday: Brazil Ministry of Health, August 8 2024


On Friday we traveled to Juiz de Fora where we participated in a transplant symposium at the Santa Casa hospital there








On Saturday we had an exciting finish to the trip, but it's not my story to tell yet, so I'll blog again after there is an official announcement.


Earlier:

Sunday, August 11, 2024

AI in college admissions

 College admissions staff must expect to be seeing a lot of personal essays written and edited by chatbots.

Here's a company, Kollegio.AI that is offering more kinds of help than that in applying to college.

They say: "Kollegio is a 100% AI and data-driven college counseling platform helping students with every aspect of the college admissions process. We pride ourselves in using ethical AI to help level the playing field."



Saturday, August 10, 2024

Leading Causes of Death in the US, 2019-2023.

 Covid has dropped out of the top 10.

Leading Causes of Death in the US, 2019-2023. by Farida B. Ahmad, MPH1; Jodi A. Cisewski, MPH1; Robert N. Anderson, PhD1, JAMA.  August 8, 2024. doi:10.1001/jama.2024.15563





Friday, August 9, 2024

Designing Complex Experiments, by Susan Athey and Guido Imbens

 Here's a tantalizing set of slides about online experiments

Designing Complex Experiments: Some Recent Developments SUSAN ATHEY AND GUIDO IMBENS

This is from the 

NBER Summer Institute 2024

SI 2024 Methods Lecture: New Developments in Experimental Design and Analysis

the above link contains pointers to background papers.

Thursday, August 8, 2024

Pediatric Heart Transplants: rethinking the waitlist, by Power, Sweat...Almond et al.

 Here's a paper on the design of the waitlist for pediatric heart transplants.  It's accompanied by an editorial in the journal, and a discussion at Stanford Medical School.

Here's the article

Alyssa Power, MD,a,* Kurt R. Sweat, PHD,b,* Alvin Roth, PHD,b John C. Dykes, MD,a Beth Kaufman, MD,a Michael Ma, MD,c Sharon Chen, MD, MPH,a Seth A. Hollander, MD,a Elizabeth Profita, MD,a David N. Rosenthal, MD,aLynsey Barkoff, NP,a Chiu-Yu Chen, MD, PHD,a Ryan R. Davies, MD,d Christopher S. Almond, MD, MPH, Contemporary Pediatric Heart Transplant Waitlist Mortality  Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Volume 84, Issue 7, 13 August 2024, Pages 620-632

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND In 2016, the United Network for Organ Sharing revised its pediatric heart transplant (HT) allocation policy.

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine whether the 2016 revisions are associated with reduced waitlist mortality and capture patient-specific risks.

METHODS Children listed for HT from 1999 to 2023 were identified using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network data and grouped into 3 eras (era 1: 1999-2006; era 2: 2006-2016; era 3: 2016-2023) based on when the United Network for Organ Sharing implemented allocation changes. Fine-Gray competing risks modeling was used to identify factors associated with death or delisting for deterioration. Fixed-effects analysis was used to determine whether allocation changes were associated with mortality.

RESULTS Waitlist mortality declined 8 percentage points (PP) across eras (21%, 17%, and 13%, respectively; P < 0.01). At listing, era 3 children were less sick than era 1 children, with 6 PP less ECMO use (P < 0.01), 11 PP less ventilator use (P < 0.01), and 1 PP less dialysis use (P < 0.01). Ventricular assist device (VAD) use was 13 PP higher, and VAD mortality decreased 9 PP (P < 0.01). Non-White mortality declined 10 PP (P < 0.01). ABO-incompatible listings increased 27 PP, and blood group O infant mortality decreased 13 PP (P < 0.01). In multivariable analyses, the 2016 revisions were not associated with lower waitlist mortality, whereas VAD use (in era 3), ABO-incompatible transplant, improved patient selection, and narrowing racial disparities were. Match-run analyses demonstrated poor correlation between individual waitlist mortality risk and the match-run order.

CONCLUSIONS The 2016 allocation revisions were not independently associated with the decline in pediatric HT waitlist mortality. The 3-tier classification system fails to adequately capture patient-specific risks. A more flexible allocation system that accurately reflects patient-specific risks and considers transplant benefit is urgently needed. 

 ###########

Here's the accompanying editorial in JACC

Getting to Transplant Should Not Be the Goal, by David L.S. Morales MD and Benjamin S. Mantell MD, PhD

And here's the Stanford article:

Heart transplant list doesn’t rank kids by medical need, Stanford Medicine-led study finds. More babies and children survive the wait for a heart transplant than in the past, but improvements are due to better medical care, not changes to wait-list rules, a new study finds. August 5, 2024 - By Erin Digitale

“The current system is not doing a good job of capturing medical urgency, which is one of its explicit goals,” said the study’s co-lead author, economist Kurt Sweat, PhD, who conducted the research as a graduate student in economics at Stanford University. "

#########

Kurt's job market paper was on heart transplants for adult patients.

Friday, April 26, 2024

Update: here's another commentary on the article:

Fewer Kids Now Die While Awaiting Heart Transplant, but There’s Room for Improvement Twenty years of data show mortality has dropped. Still, with one in eight children dying on the wait list, more needs to be done.  By Yael L. Maxwell

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

How Do Financial Obstacles Affect Decision-Making Among Potential Living Organ Donors?

 Here's a report on the effects of helping living organ donors with their expenses.

Mandell, Rebecca J., Abigail R. Smith, Kimberly A. Gifford, Barry A. Hong, Nathan P. Goodrich, Amit K. Mathur, Melissa A. Fava, Akinlolu O. Ojo, and Robert M. Merion. "How Do Financial Obstacles Affect Decision-Making Among Potential Living Organ Donors?" Progress in Transplantation (2024): 15269248241268679.

Abstract: Introduction: Living donation increases the organ supply, but associated non-medical expenses can disincentivize donation. Programs aimed at increasing living donation need to better understand how financial obstacles, including lost wages, impact the decision to pursue donation. Methods/Approach: Forty-eight interviews were conducted and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Findings: Three key themes were identified that influenced decision-making: emotional attachment, temporal flexibility, and job security. These themes emerged when dividing interview participants into 3 groups: close relationship donors, broader network donors, and non-directed donors, representing donation to a family member or friend, a specific person they do not know well or at all, or a non-specified individual, respectively. Most close relationship donors wanted to donate regardless of personal financial cost, based on emotional attachment to the recipient. Wage reimbursement did not typically affect their decision-making but could reduce stress. Since non-directed donors did not donate to a specific individual, they could wait to achieve financial stability before donating, if needed. While wage reimbursement might create more proximate stability, non-directed donors had the flexibility to postpone donations until they could independently achieve financial stability. Lacking emotional attachment and temporal flexibility, broader network donors were particularly active decision-makers and most influenced by wage reimbursement. Across all groups, donors with job security were more resolute about donating. Conclusion: The findings underscore the importance of lost wage reimbursement to facilitate donation and reduce stress, and policies to protect donor job security."

##########

Related posts:

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Saturday, September 17, 2022

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Interviews, flyouts and offers in the job market for new PhD economists, 2024-25

 We may still be in a period of disequilibrium in the conduct of the market for new economists, as Zoom interviews have replaced in-person interviews at the annual January ASSA meetings.  In an attempt at maintaining market thickness, the AEA has reaffirmed its guidelines, as discussed in the email below that went out to AEA members yesterday

AEA Guidance on the 2024-25 Economics Job Market Cycle

Date:

August 5, 2024

To:

Members of the American Economic Association

From:

Peter L. Rousseau, Secretary-Treasurer

The AEA Executive Committee, in conjunction with its Committee on the Job Market, recognizes that it is to the benefit of the profession if the job market for economists is thick, with many employers and job candidates participating in the same stages at the same time. Moreover, the AEA's goals of diversity, equity, and inclusion are fostered by having a timeline that remains widely known and accepted, ensuring that candidates can correctly anticipate when each stage will occur. The AEA has a role to establish professional norms, which includes ensuring fair treatment of job candidates, including that they have enough time to consider job offers.

With these goals in mind, and in light of inquiries from both job candidates and employers about how to proceed, the AEA asks that departments and other employers consider the following timeline for initial interviews and “flyouts” in the upcoming job cycle (2024-25).


Timing of interview invitations

The AEA suggests that employers wait to extend interview invitations until the day after job market signals are transmitted to employers (planned for December 4).

Rationale: the AEA created the signaling mechanism to reduce the problem of asymmetric information and allow job candidates to credibly signal their interest to two employers. The AEA asks that employers wait to extend interview invitations until those signals have been transmitted, and to use that information to finalize their set of candidates to interview. This helps the job market in several ways: it reduces the problem of imperfect information, it helps ensure a thick market at each stage, and it promotes the AEA’s goals of diversity, equity, and inclusion. Job candidates from historically under-represented groups may lack informal professional networks and thus may especially rely on the signals to convey their interest. Waiting to review the signals before issuing invitations promotes a fairer, more equitable process.

We also ask that all employers indicate on EconTrack when they have extended interview invitations. This allows candidates to learn about the status of searches without visiting websites posting crowd-sourced information and potentially inappropriate other content.


Timing of interviews

Initial interviews may take place any time after the AEA signals are sent (planned for December 4). The AEA recommends that all initial interviews take place virtually (e.g., by Zoom). We suggest that interviews not take place during the ASSA meeting itself (January 3-5, 2025).

Rationale: In the past, interviews were conducted in-person at the ASSA meetings. This promoted thickness of the market, because most candidates and employers were present at the meetings but had the disadvantage of precluding both job candidates and interviewers from fully participating in sessions.

Initial job interviews went online during COVID, and feedback indicated that the benefits of virtual first-round interviews (e.g., low monetary cost, zero cost in travel time, scheduling flexibility, convenience) outweighed the limitations (e.g., less rich interaction).

We ask that interviews NOT take place during the ASSA meetings (January 3-5, 2025) in order to allow job candidates and interviewers to participate in the conference.


Timing of flyouts

Flyouts have historically happened at times appropriate for the employer, and the AEA sees no reason to suggest otherwise. We ask that all employers indicate on EconTrack when they have extended flyout invitations. Unlike with interviews, the AEA does not take a position on whether flyouts should be virtual or in-person.


Timing of offers and “exploding” offers

In order to ensure that the job market remains sufficiently synchronized and thick, and that candidates have a chance to compare offers, the AEA recommends that employers leave job offers open (i.e. do not require candidates to accept or decline) until at least January 31.

The AEA also strongly recommends that employers give candidates at least two weeks to consider their job offer. We recognize that offers made late in the job market season (e.g., March or later) may be of shorter duration. In some circumstances, employers are under heavy pressure to give less time to candidates for various reasons. If that is absolutely necessary, we recommend that employers give candidates a minimum of one week to consider the offer, and that candidates be given advance notice of this (e.g., at the flyout stage) whenever possible.

Rationale: Recently, there is concern about a rise in “exploding offers” – i.e., offers for which candidates are given too few days to sufficiently consider the offer and their alternatives. This can prevent candidates from learning about their options or comparing offers, and at the extreme can be coercive. Giving candidates two weeks (or, late in the job market season, at least one week) to consider an offer is a reasonable standard.

We also ask that all employers indicate on EconTrack when they have completed or closed their search.


Job market institutions and mechanisms

Please keep in mind the various job market institutions and mechanisms created by the AEA to improve the job market:


 

Thank you for helping to ensure a transparent and equitable job market for new Ph.D. economists.

 


Monday, August 5, 2024

Theory brunch at Stanford

 A Sunday brunch to welcome Fuhito Kojima back for a summer visit brought together an eclectic group of Stanford theorists, past, present, and future. (Mike Ostrovsky, Mohammad Akbarpour and Bob Wilson had already run off before things settled down for this picture  of Fuhito Kojima, Ilya Segal, Itai Ashlagi, Jason Hartline, Ravi Jagadeesan, Oguzhan Celebi, Roberto Corrao, and Frank Yang.)



Sunday, August 4, 2024

Remembering Jim Simons

 Here's the memorial page from the Simons Institute for the Theory of Computing

Remembering Jim Simons


HT: Vijay Vazirani

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Earlier:

Saturday, May 11, 2024


Saturday, August 3, 2024

Goldin arm

 Here's a great post-Nobel story from the Harvard Gazette.

Time to send in Goldin. Sox go with Nobel laureate southpaw to throw out first pitch by Jill Radsken 


“I’ve been throwing balls my whole life, but it’s been pitching to a dog with its mouth open 25 feet away. Using a real baseball has more heft,” said Goldin, the Henry Lee Professor of Economics."

######

Memory lane:

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Friday, August 2, 2024

Barter of Russians in prison for prisoners in Russia--Redemption of Captives

 Barter is alive and well in diplomacy, as evidenced by yesterday's multi-country multi-party prisoner swap.  Among the highlights was a journalist for a hitman.

The Washington Post has the story, with multiple headlines.

Biden: Prisoner swap ‘a feat of diplomacy’. U.S. reporter, others freed in complex, landmark, multicountry exchange with Russia

U.S., Germany trade convicted assassin to Russia for political prisoners in major swap The landmark prisoner swap freed Russians jailed in the West, including a convicted killer, . for U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza and others. By Shane Harris, Yasmeen Abutaleb, Mary Ilyushina and Souad Mekhennet, August 1, 2024

"In the largest prisoner exchange since the height of the Cold War, officials of the United States, Russia, Germany and other countries met on an airfield in Ankara, Turkey, on Thursday and swapped at least 24 people — capping months of painstaking diplomacy involving negotiations at the highest levels of nine governments.

"Those released included a Russian assassin convicted of murder in Berlin; the American journalist Evan Gershkovich, who was accused of espionage without any known evidence; and several Russian dissidents whose only misdeed was demanding freedom and democracy or criticizing the war in Ukraine, including Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Washington Post Opinions contributor.

"White House officials called it the largest and most complicated international prisoner exchange in decades, and one of the biggest diplomatic accomplishments of Joe Biden’s presidency... But the deal was also fraught, raising questions about the West’s willingness to deal with authoritarian regimes that imprison innocen..t people for negotiating leverage."

##########

All the exchanged prisoners were serving time, so this could be viewed as a bizarre variety of the time swaps in yesterday's post.


############

Pidyon shvuyim (Hebrew: פִּדְיוֹן שְׁבוּיִים, literally: Redemption of Captives) is a religious duty in Judaism to free hostages. Historically, many captives have been redeemed, as when Jewish refugees were brought out from behind the Iron curtain with payments to the governments preventing them from emigrating.  (At equilibrium, this means Jews are often taken hostage, as  in the Hamas attack on October 7.)

Thursday, August 1, 2024

Time banking

 Here's the latest Freakonomics podcast, on time banking. Dubner interviews some proponents, and a skeptic. I was the skeptic. It's not that I think time banking is a bad idea, I think it's a good idea, but a good idea like Esperanto, not a good idea like money... 

The World’s Most Valuable Unused Resource. It’s not oil or water or plutonium — it’s human hours. We’ve got an idea for putting them to use, and for building a more human-centered economy. But we need your help.

One of the proponents is Andrew Yang.

Here's an excerpt from the transcript

"YANG: Yeah, the best example I can use is that punch card at your local deli where you get 10 sandwiches, and you get the 11th for free. That has a place of honor in your wallet. And you get really excited when you get close to the free sandwich. If you can imagine a version of the deli punch card for showing up to all sorts of things like that’s the vision. Americans love points. Americans love rewards. Americans love stuff. I have these reward points on my Amex, and it’s mesmerizing, even though right now, it doesn’t cost them anything because I’m not going to redeem it because I’m hoarding for — I don’t know what I’m hoarding for. That’s really the core idea, is that if you give Americans cumulative rewards for doing awesome stuff, you’ll see more awesome stuff.


Okay, so who could possibly be against a scheme that rewards people for doing awesome stuff? Well, there is a certain Nobel Prize-winning economist.


ROTH: Some people’s time might be more valuable than other people’s.


That’s coming up.


*      *      *


As appealing as the idea of time banking is to me, and to Andrew Yang, most economists think that money is a much better measure of value than time. Here, again, is Al Roth.


ROTH: Time is an interesting commodity, and we buy and sell it all the time. When you hire a lawyer, he bills you by the hour. You give him money for his time and expertise. You might hire someone to house-sit for you, and water your plants while you’re away. So we trade time a lot, but not for time. And part of the reason is that time is sort of a clunky commodity. It’s a lot easier to trade other things.


DUBNER: But why is it so clunky? I mean, just as a dollar is a dollar, an hour is an hour.


ROTH: Well, one of the things we worry about with monetary markets is, some people have more dollars than other people do, and that gives them more access. And maybe we don’t always feel great about that. And so I think some of the charm to people who are charmed by time banks is that everyone has 24 hours in a day. But, you know, a working mother of three kids has less time than a retired banker who has a cleaner coming to his house, and a gardener. So not everyone has the same amount of time. And it’s clunky because it’s also hard to transfer. There’s the joke about the lawyer who goes to see a dentist, and the dentist fills his cavity in 10 minutes. The lawyer says to him, “You make more per hour than I do.” And the dentist says, “Would you prefer that I took an hour?”


DUBNER: So we solicited a few other economists to come on the show to talk about time banking. One of them, who shall go unnamed, wrote back to say: “The more I think about it, the more I think it is the dumbest idea in the world.” So do you hate the idea as much as that economist?


ROTH: I don’t hate it as much as that economist. By and large, I think that finding more opportunities for valuable exchange, for exchange that improves welfare on both sides, is a good thing. So I certainly have nothing against swapping time for time. I just don’t think of it as a scalable way to run a significant part of the economy.


DUBNER: The reason the idea appeals to me is because I’ve spent a lot of time with people like you, economists. And when you get a little bit off the beaten path, you start thinking about things like shadow time, right, the hours I have when I’m not on the clock, and what they’re worth to me and how I could spend them. And then I also just think about human capital, which economists are always going on and on about. It feels like that’s the purpose of a lot of economic research these days, is to show how important it is for people to build human capital through education and social networks and so on, because human capital is indeed really valuable. But then when I look around the world, I see so much surplus, dare I say, wasted human capital. People who are able to do things that may not be that valuable in a regular market circumstance, and may not even be that valuable to them, but might be very valuable to other people. And wouldn’t it be wonderful to find a way to give value to that surplus human capital? I mean, if you add it all up, that could be the biggest natural resource in the world, worth more than all the petroleum and other mineral products combined. And then I thought, well, who out there in the world would appreciate that more than Al Roth, who recognized that there is surplus sitting around in people’s bodies, for instance, in the form of a second kidney, and found a way to set up a system to make those extra kidneys available. So does that make time banking a tad more viable in your view?


ROTH: Well, I already said that I am in favor of looking for ways to increase valuable exchanges. So when time for time works, that’s great. But when you talk about human capital, you’re already suggesting that on some tasks, some people’s time might be more valuable than other people’s, because they have more human capital. And that’s what makes time clunky, if all we’re doing is swapping time. You know, I live on a college campus, so we trade time all the time, by inviting people to dinner. And then they invite us back to dinner. Dinner is sort of time, you expect you’re going to spend two, two-and-a-half hours with people and create connections that can’t be monetized. And it’s part of what makes life worth living. And if they had to eat and run, it would be a less-successful dinner

...

DUBNER: But I could imagine a scenario where, let’s say, there’s a person running a roofing business, maybe they’re second- or third-generation even. And they’ve decided that the way forward is to do solar installations. You’re in California. I’m sure there’s a big market for that there. But they don’t really know how to set up their business to optimize for that. They don’t know what kinds of partnerships, and maybe there’s some tax strategy, and just setting up the business that they’re not clear on. But boy, Professor Roth, he loves to talk to people about problems like that. And he also needs a new roof. So that sounds like a really nice possible exchange that could happen in the time bank. Would you be open to discussing that?


ROTH: I’d be open to discussing it.


DUBNER: He said, reluctantly.


ROTH: I say reluctantly because I certainly wouldn’t want that to be the only way I could get my roof repaired. "

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Crowding in School Choice, By William Phan, Ryan Tierney, and Yu Zhou

 Here's an innovative paper in the latest AER.

The authors use North Carolina's Wake County Public School System as a motivating example of crowding and the information available to parents about crowding.

Crowding in School Choice, By William Phan, Ryan Tierney, and Yu Zhou, American Economic Review 2024, 114(8): 2526–2552, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20220626

Abstract: "We consider the market design problem of matching students to schools in the presence of crowding effects. These effects are salient in parents’ decision-making and the empirical literature; however, they cause difficulties in the design of satisfactory mechanisms and, as such, are not currently considered. We propose a new framework and an equilibrium notion that accommodates crowding, no-envy, and respect for priorities. The equilibrium has a student-optimal element that induces an incentive-compatible mechanism and is implementable via a novel algorithm. Moreover, analogs of fundamental structural results of the matching literature (the rural hospitals theorem, welfare lattice, etc.) survive."

"In our model, each student has a preference over the two dimensions of school identity and the total amount of educational resources that they consume at each school. The more crowded a school is, the fewer resources each student enjoys, and so the value of this second dimension at each school will emerge endogenously. 

...

"We propose a new equilibrium concept: rationing crowding equilibrium (RCE). The core of our innovation is in realizing that the vector of resource levels can function like a price. Consider a competitive solution applied in our context. We may imagine that an auctioneer announces a resource vector, which then determines a (finite) list of school and resource-level pairs. Each student will then demand (generically) one of these pairs, and we can ask the usual market clearing question: Does there exist a resource vector at which, for each school, the demand for educational resources is equal to its supply? We show that the answer is yes, if we allow for an error of at most one seat.9,10 Since each student faced the same budget set, the resulting allocation satisfies no-envy, at least for schools that have not reached their enrollment cap