Showing posts sorted by date for query marijuana. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query marijuana. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Friday, October 25, 2024

WUSTL Economic Theory Conference 2024, today and tomorrow in St. Louis

 I'm traveling to St. Louis, to Washington University, to join the

Location: The Charles F. Knight Center Executive Education & Conference CenterClassroom 220 is on the WashU Campus (145, D2). All sessions, lunch, and dinner will be held here.

Program:

Friday, October 25:

8:00 – 9:00 am Breakfast (Anheuser-Busch Dining Hall)

Session I (Classroom 220)

9:00 – 9:45 am David Levine (Royal Holloway University)
Behavioral Mechanism Design as a Benchmark for Experimental Studies

9:45 – 10:30 am Navin Kartik (Columbia University)
Convex Choice” joint with Andreas Kleiner

10:30 – 10:50 am Coffee Break (2nd Floor Break Area)

Session II (Classroom 220)

10:50 – 11:35 am Laura Doval (Columbia University)
“Calibrated Mechanism Design” joint with Alex Smolin

11:35 – 12:20 pm Simon Board (UCLA)

Lunch 12:30 pm – 1:30 pm; Hot Slider Buffet Bar will be placed outside the meeting room for guests to grab. Beverages will be available on the 2nd floor break station. Guests can eat in the classroom, at the lounge seating on the 2nd floor of the Knight Center, or outside on WashU’s campus.

Session III (Classroom 220)

1:40 – 2:25 pm Federico Echenique (UC Berkeley)
Stable Matching as Transportation

2:25 – 3:10 pm Faruk Gul (Princeton University)

3:10 – 3:30 PM Coffee Break 

Session IV (Classroom 220)

3:30 – 4:15 pm Vasiliki Skreta (UT Austin)

4:15 – 5:00 pm Bruno Strulovici (Northwestern University)
Symbolic vs. Substantive Taxation Principles with Unobservable Actions

Dinner 5:30 – 8:00 pm, Classroom 340 (3rd floor)


Saturday, October 26:

7:00 – 9:00 am  Breakfast (Anheuser-Busch Dining Hall)

Session V (Classroom 220)

9:00 – 9:45 am Nageeb Ali (Penn State University)
“From Design to Disclosure”

9:45 – 10:30 am Marina Agranov (Caltech)
“Beliefs of Others: an Experimental Study”

10:30 – 10:50 am Coffee Break

Session VI (Classroom 220)

10:50 – 11:35 am Michael Ostrovsky (Stanford University)
Transportation as Stable Matching

11:30 – 12:20 pm Mehmet Ekmekci (Boston College)

12:30 – 1:30 pm; Boxed Lunches will be placed outside the meeting room for guests to grab. Beverages will be available on the 2nd floor break station. Guests can eat in the classroom, at the lounge seating on the 2nd floor of the Knight Center, or outside on WashU’s campus.


Public Lecture

Bryan Cave Moot Courtroom (A-B Hall, Room 310)

3:00 – 4:00 PM Al Roth (Stanford University)
“Market Design and Regulation”
Al Roth will give highlights of the market design he pioneered, such as kidney exchange and school choice. He will also discuss open questions regarding controversial markets, which may include blood plasma, abortion, IVF and surrogacy, marijuana, guns, and digital data.

Friday, October 18, 2024

"Market Design and Regulation" at Washington University, Oct 26 (but registration today)

 I'll be giving a public talk at Wash U in St. Louis on Saturday Oct 26, but here's a call for registration that suggests registration may close today. 

"Public Lecture with Al Roth (Stanford University); "Market Design and Regulation"

"Al Roth won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2012. All who are interested in hearing Al Roth speak are invited to register.

"Registration will close on October 18, 2024. Registration is required to attend.

"Professor Roth will give highlights of market design that he pioneered such as kidney exchange and school choice in the first half of the talk. In the second half, Professor Roth will talk about controversial markets that may include topics such as blood plasma, abortion, IVF and surrogacy, marijuana, guns, digital data, etc. "

 

Saturday, October 5, 2024

The NAS proposes that bans on studying marijuana and its effects should be relaxed

 The National Academy of Sciences has just issued a new report on marijuana and public health.  Among their recommendations is that bans on research should be rescinded. (Because marijuana is currently a Schedule I drug in the Controlled Substances Act, it's hard to get permission to study it and its effects...)

Cannabis Policy Impacts Public Health and Health Equity (2024)

Monday, September 2, 2024

Oregon ends decriminalization of drugs, continues to experiment

 Here's the story in the Washington Post

Hard drugs illegal again in Oregon as first-in-nation experiment ends

"Sunday marks the end of an experiment that drug-reform advocates called a pioneering and progressive measure to better help people. Oregon legislators reassessed Measure 110 this year and decided to again make it a misdemeanor to possess a minor amount of drugs — essentially anything besides marijuana. Selling and manufacturing illicit drugs was and is still illegal in Oregon.

...

"On Feb. 29, the Oregon House of Representatives voted 51-7 to recriminalize drugs, with bipartisan support. The Oregon Senate did the same by a vote of 21-8 the next day. Gov. Tina Kotek (D) signed recriminalization into law April 1.

"Data shows how the [decriminalization] law was used in practice. The Oregonian reported that circuit court data collected by the Oregon Judicial Department from when the law went into effect Feb. 1, 2021, to Aug. 26, 2024, showed that the state’s circuit courts imposed just under $900,000 in fines under the measure but collected only $78,000 of those fines.

"The conviction rate for the 7,227 people cited was 89 percent, with most of those because people didn’t show up to court, the Oregonian reported. Data showed that 85 people completed the substance abuse screening in lieu of a conviction.

"The most commonly cited drug was methamphetamine, accounting for 54 percent of citations. Fentanyl and other Schedule II drugs, the Oregonian reported, ranked second at 31 percent."

#########

And here's the Guardian's coverage:

Oregon: drug possession to be a crime again as decriminalization law expires. First-in-nation trial comes to an end, as new law gives those caught with hard drugs option of charges or treatment

"The new recriminalization law, HB4002, will give those caught with illicit drugs – including fentanyl, heroin and meth – the choice to either be charged with possession or treatment, which includes completing a behavioral health program and participating in a “deflection program” to avoid fines.

"Personal-use possession would be a misdemeanor punishable by up to six months in jail. It aims to make it easier for police to crack down on drug use in public and introduced harsher penalties for selling drugs near places such as parks.

"The recriminalization law encourages, but does not mandate, counties to create treatment alternatives to divert people from the criminal justice system and toward addiction and mental health services."


Friday, July 12, 2024

Growth pains for legal marijuana, in Germany and New York

Transitioning from a thriving black market for marijuana to a regulated legal market isn't so easy.

The Guardian has the story from Germany, where so far clubs, but not shops, have been legalized:

Cannabis legalisation hampered by most German of substances: red tape. Activists say the rollout of laws permitting recreational use of the drug has been hampered by a ‘bureaucratic monster’  by Deborah Cole

"Joints now mingle openly with pints among fans watching the European football championship in host nation Germany, which in the spring became the first big EU country to legally allow personal recreational use of cannabis.

"That is, provided the fan is over 18, only carrying a small amount of the narcotic, not smoking in the stands of a stadium and not in possession of more than three plants at their officially registered home.

...

"The hotly disputed law passed by Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition, which took effect in April, legalised cultivating up to three plants for private consumption, the possession of 50g (1.75oz) of cannabis at one time at home and 25g in public.

...

"A key phase began on 1 July with the establishment of registered cannabis clubs, which proponents say are vital to assuring the smooth path towards legal weed and supplanting the underworld street trade.

...

"In order to thwart drug tourism, members must have lived in Germany for six months, sign up to a club for a minimum of three months and have a clean criminal record for narcotics.

"Clubs are dependent on fee-paying members to start operating but are not allowed to advertise, said Marten Knopke of the Cannabis Social Club Leipzig, thus robbing them of a key source of capital needed to rent offices and land for growing purposes. Consumption on club premises is also verboten.

“We are subject to more restrictions than any alcohol company,” Knopke said, echoing a frequent complaint from the cannabis scene about drinking, which kills more than 60,000 people in Germany each year. “The government has also made it really difficult for us to stand up to the hidden [narcotics] market.”

...

“There are no shops where you can buy, meaning they [foreign tourists]" will end up buying something on the underground market, which is very dangerous in Berlin,” because of contaminated drugs and the role of the mafia in the trade, he said."

********

And here's the New York Times on New York:

The Real Problem With Legal WeedBy Charles Fain Lehman

"When New York legalized recreational marijuana in 2021, the future seemed bright. ...

"Three years later, things are not going to plan. Gov. Kathy Hochul has called New York’s legalization rollout “a disaster.” Mayor Eric Adams has spent months demanding that Albany fix the current system. “What happened?” The New Yorker recently asked in a feature on the collapse of the state’s marijuana “revolution.”

...

"There are around 140 recreational dispensaries operating statewide — about one for every 148,000 New Yorkers. Instead of shopping legally, New Yorkers tend to get their weed from the illegal shops that now blanket the state. Estimates suggest that there are anywhere from 2,000 to 8,000 in New York City alone, with uncounted more from Ithaca to Oneonta. Recent crackdowns have temporarily sealed more than 400 stores — only a small fraction of the total in the city.

"These shops undercut the legal stores, offering the same high at a fraction of the price. And they attract crime: There were 736 robbery complaints at unlicensed shops last year, according to the New York Police Department. Shootings are not uncommon, including the killing of a 36-year-old man captured on video last April.

"They also sell to teenagers, as The Times has reported. Teachers, prevention experts and pediatricians have raised the alarm about high schoolers smoking or vaping marijuana at school."

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Marijuana policy and use in the U.S., 1979-2022, by Jonathan Caulkins, in Addiction

 Here's a paper forthcoming in the journal Addiction:

Changes in self-reported cannabis use in the United States from 1979 to 2022, by Jonathan P. Caulkins, published online 22 May 2024, https://doi.org/10.1111/add.16519 

"Abstract

Background and aims: Multiple countries are considering revising cannabis policies. This study aimed to measure long-term trends in cannabis use in the United States and compare them with alcohol use.

Design and setting: Secondary analysis of United States general population survey data.

Participants: The national surveys had a total of 1 641 041 participants across 27 surveys from 1979 to 2022.

Measurements: Rates of use reported to the US National Survey on Drug Use and Health and its predecessors are described, as are trends in days of use reported. Four milepost years are contrasted: 1979 (first available data and end of relatively liberal policies of the 1970s), 1992 (end of 12 years of conservative Reagan-Bush era policies), 2008 (last year before the Justice Department signaled explicit federal non-interference with state-level legalizations) and 2022 (most recent data available).

Findings: Reported cannabis use declined to a nadir in 1992, with partial recovery through 2008, and substantial increases since then, particularly for measures of more intensive use. Between 2008 and 2022, the per capita rate of reporting past-year use increased by 120%, and days of use reported per capita increased by 218% (in absolute terms from the annual equivalent of 2.3 to 8.1 billion days per year). From 1992 to 2022, there was a 15-fold increase in the per capita rate of reporting daily or near daily use. Whereas the 1992 survey recorded 10 times as many daily or near daily alcohol as cannabis users (8.9 vs. 0.9 M), the 2022 survey, for the first time, recorded more daily and near daily users of cannabis than alcohol (17.7 vs. 14.7 M). Far more people drink, but high-frequency drinking is less common. In 2022, the median drinker reported drinking on 4–5 days in the past month, versus 15–16 days in the past month for cannabis. In 2022, past-month cannabis consumers were almost four times as likely to report daily or near daily use (42.3% vs. 10.9%) and 7.4 times more likely to report daily use (28.2% vs. 3.8%).

ConclusionsLong-term trends in cannabis use in the United States parallel corresponding changes in cannabis policy, with declines during periods of greater restriction and growth during periods of policy liberalization. A growing share of cannabis consumers report daily or near daily use, and their numbers now exceed the number of daily and near daily drinkers."

Daily and Near Daily (DND) use

...

"That is still not as high as for cigarettes. The 2022 NSDUH survey finds that 58.7% of PM ["Past Month"] cigarette smokers smoked ‘daily’—defined as ‘smoked one or more packs of cigarettes per day’ [8]. Therefore, there are more daily cigarette smokers than DND PM marijuana users (24.1 vs 17.7 million). 3 Still, patterns of marijuana consumption have shifted from being like alcohol to being closer to cigarette use. It is also no longer a young person's drug. In 2022, people 35 and older accounted for (slightly) more days of use than did those under the age of 35."

Friday, April 5, 2024

Still illegal in Idaho

 Here's a map from The Hill of places where marijuana will be legal to various degrees by the end of this year. Grey states are where marijuana is still entirely illegal.  Despite the best attempts of the previous presidential administration to make America grey again, Idaho is one of only three states that remain grey: they are surrounded by states in which cannabis is legal in some form, and most of Idaho's neighbors have legalized marijuana (even) for recreational purposes (bright green on the map).



But Idaho is holding the line, which seems to be politically popular there.

The NYT has the story:

A Legal Pot Pioneer Was Busted in Idaho With 56 Pounds. He Has a Plan.  By Corey Kilgannon

"In retrospect, the Idaho shortcut might have been a bad idea.

...

"Idaho is surrounded mostly by pot friendly states and is strict about people driving through with the stuff. The authorities are especially vigilant in “corridor counties” along Interstate 84, of which Gooding County — where Mr. Beal encountered the state police — is one.

"Under state law, carrying more than 25 pounds of marijuana is a felony with a mandatory minimum sentence of five years; the maximum is 15 years, with a maximum fine of $50,000.

“It’s one of the worst places in the country to possess marijuana, definitely,” Michelle Agee, Mr. Beal’s court-appointed lawyer, said. “Idaho is stuck in the 1950s as far as marijuana goes. It’s definitely the wrong place, wrong time for a person to be accused of having marijuana.”

...

"Reached for comment, Idaho’s attorney general, Raúl R. Labrador, a former Republican congressman who helped found the conservative House Freedom Caucus, said that legalization in neighboring states had done nothing to deter the strict enforcement of the laws in Idaho.

“We’ve watched how those decisions to legalize drugs have ruined other states, and Idaho demands just a bit better for our citizens and communities,” he said. “If you are trying to transport marijuana across state lines through Idaho, take the long way instead. It’ll save us money on your incarceration.”

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Cannabis in US airports

 An anomaly of US Federal law is that marijuana is illegal on airplanes (interstate commerce) even when the airports involved are in states where marijuana is legal.

The WSJ has the story and a picture:

Don’t Put Your Stash in the Overhead Bin. A ‘Cannabis Amnesty Box’ at Chicago’s Midway Airport.  By Bob Greene



Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Marijuana black market persists in CA (despite the beginning of a legal market)

 The LA Times has the story, about how legalization of marijuana in California so far failed to end the black market, complete with violence in the Southern California desert.

A massacre that killed 6 reveals the treacherous world of illegal pot in SoCal deserts, by SUMMER LIN, SALVADOR HERNANDEZ, KAREN GARCIA

"A Times investigation last year uncovered the proliferation of illegal cannabis in California after the passage of Proposition 64, which legalized the recreational use of marijuana in the state. Although the 2016 legislation promised voters that the legal market would hobble illegal trade and its associated violence, there has been a surge in the black market.

"Growers at illegal sites can avoid the expensive licensing fees and regulatory costs associated with legal farms. Violence is a looming threat at these operations, authorities said, because illicit harvests yield huge quantities of cash to operators who can’t use banks or law enforcement for protection.

...

"In 2019, an audit by the United Cannabis Business Assn. found nearly 3,000 unlicensed dispensaries and delivery services were operating in the state — at least three times more than legal, regulated businesses.

...

"Warrick wouldn’t comment on whether the slayings were cartel-related but said there were “certain things at the scene that show a level of violence that obviously raises some interesting questions for us.”

Monday, November 27, 2023

Banks boycott sex workers even for legal kinds of sex work

 Repugnance isn't erased by legality. Workers in morally contested, repugnant markets may be boycotted by banks even when their work is legal.  Marijuana sellers in states where marijuana sales are legal run into this problem because Federal law still prohibits such sales, but sex workers in legal industries (video sex, porn) and even prostitution in Nevada often can't keep bank accounts, even personal (i.e. non-buisiness) accounts.

The NYT has the story:

Sex Workers Have Been Shunned by Banks, Even When Their Work Is Legal. Financial service companies often avoid what they deem high-risk industries like adult entertainment. When workers lose their accounts, they are left with few options.  By Tara Siegel Bernard

“Despite being a legal establishment, there is, of course, still a stigma attached to the work,” Ms. Cummins, 74, said from Wells, Nev., the only state where prostitution is legal in certain counties. “There is no bank in Nevada that will lend money to a brothel."

...

"Workers in sex-related industries — whether in a brothel or a strip club or selling sexually explicit videos online — often risk their safety and face social and employment discrimination. But a lesser-known struggle is that it’s often difficult to maintain a basic bank account and other financial relationships that most people take for granted.

...

"Financial institutions are responsible for monitoring the nation’s cash flow for potential criminal activities, including human trafficking and money laundering. In the process they’ve also become quasi-law enforcement, making life-altering calls on who can keep banking and who cannot, based on their own calculus about what kind of risk is worth taking.


But without bank accounts, people are unable to accomplish the most basic of financial tasks: collecting, spending and saving their earnings. Once banished from mainstream bank accounts and everyday financial apps Americans have come to rely on, sex workers are left with fewer, and often less attractive, options — turning to crypto, for example, or being forced to rely on others to hold their cash, opening them up to exploitation. 

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Magic mushrooms as therapy

 The legal use of psychedelics in therapy is growing.

The NYT has the story:

A New Era of Psychedelics in Oregon. The state has pioneered a therapeutic market for psychedelic mushrooms. Researchers are watching with a mix of excitement and unease.  By Mike Baker

"Stigmatized in law and medicine for the past half-century, psychedelics are in the midst of a sudden revival, with a growing body of research suggesting that the mind-altering compounds could upend psychiatric care. Governments in several places have cautiously started to open access, and as Oregon voters approved a broad drug decriminalization plan in 2020, they also backed an initiative to allow the use of mushrooms as therapy.

...

"For those who have long worked on psychedelics research, the sudden expansion in access in Oregon and Colorado, along with cities like Denver, Detroit, Minneapolis and Washington, D.C., have prompted a mix of elation and trepidation. Oregon has settled on a middle-of-the-road approach, requiring neither a doctor’s supervision nor a specific medical diagnosis, but providing for strict oversight of supply and use.

...

"While some form of legalized marijuana is authorized in all but 12 states, creating a huge, multi-billion-dollar industry, the psilocybin market remains small, with an uncertain financial outlook for those entering it. Only five businesses are approved to manufacture the therapeutic-use fungi in Oregon, with 13 sites approved to host dosing sessions.

...

"Officials in other states are watching what happens in Oregon. Voters in Colorado approved a measure last year to decriminalize psilocybin and to set the state on the path to a legal therapeutic market. In other states, including Texas, lawmakers have authorized studies of psilocybin for treating ailments such as PTSD. The F.D.A. has granted the drug “breakthrough therapy” status, which allows for expedited review of substances that have demonstrated substantial promise.

"But there is uncertainty about the best path forward. California lawmakers approved a bill this year to decriminalize several hallucinogens, but Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed the measure, saying the state needs to first set up regulated treatment guidelines. The American Psychiatric Association has urged caution, saying treatments should be limited to research studies for now."

Sunday, August 6, 2023

Growing pains for legal marijuana, in California and beyond

The market for legal marijuana in the U.S. is suffering from (literal) growing pains, as large scale legal cultivation runs into both crop diseases, and zoning issues.

As a crop that is legal at the state level in many states, but still illegal under federal law, large cannabis farms don't get some of the benefits regarding the spread of plant diseases that are provided for other crops by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The WSJ has the story:

Cannabis Industry Confronts Billion-Dollar Threat: Weak Weed. Pathogen spreading among crops is cutting recreational drug’s potency, forcing growers to cull ‘dudded’ plants.  By Dean Seal

"A pathogen is contaminating cannabis crops around the country and threatening to leave billions of dollars of losses in its wake. 

"Cannabis researchers and experts are sounding the alarm for what is known as hop latent viroid, or HLVd, and cultivators are stepping up efforts to discover whether their plants are infected. The pathogen can drastically reduce the potency of the psychoactive compounds in marijuana, a phenomenon that growers have long called “dudding.”

...

"Plant pathologists and cannabis experts say the spread of the viroid was likely accelerated by the popularity of weed from California, which legalized cannabis for medical use in 1996.

"The spread also reflects the evolution of the cannabis business into a major agricultural crop. The risk of a new disease expanding increases for any crop that goes from low to high production, as cannabis has in the past two decades, said Jeremy Warren, Dark Heart’s director of plant science.

“You saw the spread happen in the legal states first, like California, where you started having bigger grows and bigger greenhouses that are making thousands and tens of thousands of plants,” Warren said. “In that system, it’s harder to maintain sanitation and it’s easier for a pathogen to take off.”

"The U.S. Agriculture Department typically sets quality standards and inspection requirements for agricultural products, but marijuana’s illegality at the federal level keeps it out of the agency’s purview."

*******

And big farms mean that agriculture and expensive housing may rub shoulders in California. Here's the Guardian on Santa Barbara County.

A beachside city became California’s legal cannabis capital. Not everyone is stoked  by Nicholas Schou

"Thanks to the most lenient policies in California for recreational marijuana, Santa Barbara county is now the state’s undisputed capital of legal cannabis, boasting more acres than the storied Emerald Triangle of Humboldt, Trinity and Mendocino counties.

"Santa Barbara voters overwhelmingly backed California’s legalisation of recreational marijuana in 2016, with hopes that the cannabis boom would bring tax revenue and new jobs to the county. The transformation has been fast and furious. Santa Barbara county is now home to around a third of all cultivation licenses issued in California, despite making up only 1.8% of the state’s land, with some megafarms stretching over dozens of acres.

"But the sudden influx of growers has inspired a broad coalition of frustration that spans local high schools, uber-wealthy homeowners and the region’s influential wine industry, who argue the pungent industry threatens to ruin their cherished lifestyle in a region dubbed the “American Riviera”.

...

"The tensions underscore a wider drama playing out in California over the promises of legal weed. Despite broad public support for bringing the industry out of the shadows, seven years on the illicit market is thriving, businesses are struggling to turn a profit, and many on the frontlines of the transition say they have yet to enjoy the returns.

"In fact, for the first time, officials in Santa Barbara are acknowledging that if market trends continue, the cost of the program both to public finances and to quality of life may outweigh any actual benefits.

...

"California’s cannabis market has been operating in a quasi-legal sphere since 1996, when medical marijuana was decriminalized. In 2016, advocates for Proposition 64 successfully argued that decriminalizing all cannabis use would create lucrative tax schemes and rewrite the historic injustices of policing such a widely used drug.

"But Prop 64 allowed cities to choose whether to allow cannabis businesses or not. Many refused to, banning both cultivation and dispensaries. Others, with varying degrees of success and scandal, sought to cash in on the “green rush”.

...

"Santa Barbara is alone among counties in that it taxes farmers based on the value of the marijuana they sell, as opposed to the acreage of their farms. While that strategy works when cannabis values are high, the industry has experienced a massive decline in profitability during the past year. With the sale price of cannabis in the state at roughly a third of its value just a year or so ago, many corporate investors have pulled out of the market entirely, and the number of licensed growers in Santa Barbara county has declined by about 25%.

"As a result, the county is expecting to earn just $7.5m in cannabis tax revenue this year, a 54% decline from 2022 and only half the $15.2m that was expected to fund the county’s latest budget, according to a county report."

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Drug markets: the replacement of agriculture by chemistry

Labs are replacing fields as the source of addictive drugs. Here are two stories, from National Affairs, and the Financial Times.

The current issue of National Affairs has this essay on drugs, drug use, and overdose deaths:

How to Think about the Drug Crisis by Charles Fain Lehman

"A reported 111,219 Americans died from a drug overdose in 2021. That figure has risen more or less unabated, and at an increasing pace, since the early 1990s. Back in 2011, 43,544 Americans died from a drug overdose — less than half the 2021 figure. Ten years earlier, in 2001, it was 21,705 — less than half as many again. And the problem keeps getting worse: The 2021 figure is nearly 50% higher than it was in 2019.

...

"The National Center for Health Statistics estimates that there were roughly 110,000 overdose deaths in the year ending December 2022 — essentially unchanged from a year earlier.

...

"Historically, illicit drugs — heroin, cocaine, marijuana, etc. — were derived from plants grown in fields or greenhouses. But licit pharmacology has long been able to use simple, widely available precursor chemicals to synthesize the active ingredients in these substances. This sidesteps the complex processes of farming altogether. At some point in the past several decades, drug-trafficking organizations learned to use the same techniques at scale. Using precursors sourced primarily from China, they now synthesize a variety of opioids — the class of drugs that includes heroin.

"The most widely known of these is fentanyl, a synthetic opioid conventionally used in anesthesia that is 50 times stronger than heroin. Some are stronger still — carfentanil, the most potent opioid known thus far, is roughly 100 times stronger than fentanyl. In 2021, synthetic opioids were involved in roughly two out of every three overdose deaths.

...

"Complicating the story further is the increasing purity and declining cost of methamphetamine, another synthetic drug with an exploding death rate. After synthetic opioids, methamphetamine is now the second most common cause of drug overdose death. It's also the only tracked drug where deaths not involving synthetic opioids are increasing. That these two lab-produced substances are replacing "organic" drugs at the same time is not a coincidence.

"Why have these drugs taken over the market? Because they're a much better value proposition for sellers. Synthetic drugs significantly reduce production costs, both because chemistry is less labor- and input-intensive per unit produced than farming and because lab production is much easier to obscure from interdiction efforts that drive up costs. Furthermore, because the potency per dose is higher, drug-smuggling operations can move a smaller amount of fentanyl than heroin for the same profit.

"Of course, the stronger the drug, the higher the risk of overdose. Drug-overdose death rates used to be low in part because for the first century or so of modern American drug use, the potency of illicit drugs was constrained by what traffickers could grow in a field. Synthetic drugs remove this limit."

********

And this from the FT:

How fentanyl changed the game for Mexico’s drug cartels.  by Christine Murray

"In the last decade, fentanyl has become the leading cause of death for young adults in the US. Mexico’s illegal drug trade has also adapted to the shift from plant-based drugs towards synthetics, creating a new, streamlined and highly profitable arm of the illicit business with fewer workers and lower costs — but just as much violence.

"The change has caused friction in two of Washington’s most important relationships, with China and Mexico.

...

"Instead of employing tens of thousands of agricultural labourers, the entire fentanyl industry in Mexico could function with “cooks” estimated to number in the hundreds, who were mostly not qualified chemists, Reuter said. Fentanyl’s growth appears to have hit heroin production in particular, with poppy growing in Mexico still well below its peaks, according to the UN Office for Drugs and Crime."





Saturday, July 15, 2023

Marijuana and military recruitment

 Here's a proposal for a bit pf reality-based legislation that has some bipartisan support. DefenseOne has the story:

Proposed marijuana waivers acknowledge blunt recruiting truths. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle want to remove a barrier to joining the U.S. military.  by LAUREN C. WILLIAMS 

"As the military services struggle to meet recruiting goals, lawmakers in the divided House seem united on a proposed fix: relaxing the Pentagon’s policies on marijuana use.

“I do not believe we should be testing for cannabis [in] people who want to join the military,” Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., told the House Rules Committee during a hearing on Tuesday. “We should be thinking about cannabis more in terms of alcohol.”

Gaetz testified in support of his amendment that would ban drug testing for marijuana as a condition of enlistment or to become a commissioned officer. 

“We are having a recruiting crisis,” he said, noting that many “people use cannabis under the color of state law.” So far, 23 states and Washington, D.C. have legalized the recreational use of marijuana.

"The Florida lawmaker stressed that his amendment wouldn’t preclude DOD from prohibiting marijuana use for individuals actively serving in the military, but that cannabis testing is “an unnecessary gate” for recruitment. In 2021, Gaetz sought to overturn U.S. election results."

Friday, July 14, 2023

Harm reduction is not a panacea: drug use and drug policy in Portugal, and San Francisco

 The Washington Post has a story about Portugal, and the SF Chronicle has one as well. Both stories touch on the tensions between treating drug addicts with respect, and assuring that cities remain safe and livable.  

Here's the Washington Post:

Once hailed for decriminalizing drugs, Portugal is now having doubts  By Anthony Faiola and Catarina Fernandes Martins

"Portugal decriminalized all drug use, including marijuana, cocaine and heroin, in an experiment that inspired similar efforts elsewhere, but now police are blaming a spike in the number of people who use drugs for a rise in crime. In one neighborhood, state-issued paraphernalia — powder-blue syringe caps, packets of citric acid for diluting heroin — litters sidewalks outside an elementary school.

"Porto’s police have increased patrols to drug-plagued neighborhoods. But given existing laws, there’s only so much they can do. 

...

"Portugal became a model for progressive jurisdictions around the world embracing drug decriminalization, such as the state of Oregon, but now there is talk of fatigue. Police are less motivated to register people who misuse drugs and there are year-long waits for state-funded rehabilitation treatment even as the number of people seeking help has fallen dramatically. The return in force of visible urban drug use, meanwhile, is leading the mayor and others here to ask an explosive question: Is it time to reconsider this country’s globally hailed drug model?

“These days in Portugal, it is forbidden to smoke tobacco outside a school or a hospital. It is forbidden to advertise ice cream and sugar candies. And yet, it is allowed for [people] to be there, injecting drugs,” said Rui Moreira, Porto’s mayor. “We’ve normalized it.”

...

" In the United States alone, overdose deaths, fueled by opioids and deadly synthetic fentanyl, topped 100,000 in both 2021 and 2022 — or double what it was in 2015. According to the National Institutes of Health, 85 percent of the U.S. prison population has an active substance use disorder or was jailed for a crime involving drugs or drug use.

"Across the Atlantic in Europe, tiny Portugal appeared to harbor an answer. In 2001, it threw out years of punishment-driven policies in favor of harm reduction by decriminalizing consumption of all drugs for personal use, including the purchase and possession of 10-day supplies. Consumption remains technically against the law, but instead of jail, people who misuse drugs are registered by police and referred to “dissuasion commissions.” 

...Other countries have moved to channel drug offenses out of the penal system too. But none in Europe institutionalized that route more than Portugal. Within a few years, HIV transmission rates via syringes — one the biggest arguments for decriminalization — had plummeted. From 2000 to 2008, prison populations fell by 16.5 percent. Overdose rates dropped as public funds flowed from jails to rehabilitation. There was no evidence of a feared surge in use.

...

"But in the first substantial way since decriminalization passed, some Portuguese voices are now calling for a rethink of a policy that was long a proud point of national consensus. Urban visibility of the drug problem, police say, is at its worst point in decades

...

"A newly released national survey suggests the percent of adults who have used illicit drugs increased to 12.8 percent in 2022, up from 7.8 in 2001, though still below European averages.

...

"Porto’s mayor and other critics, including neighborhood activist groups, are not calling for a wholesale repeal of decriminalization — but rather, a limited re-criminalization in urban areas and near schools and hospitals to address rising numbers of people misusing drugs."

...

"After years of economic crisis, Portugal decentralized its drug oversight operation in 2012. A funding drop from 76 million euros ($82.7 million) to 16 million euros ($17.4 million) forced Portugal’s main institution to outsource work previously done by the state to nonprofit groups,

...

"Twenty years ago, “we were quite successful in dealing with the big problem, the epidemic of heroin use and all the related effects,” Goulão said in an interview with The Washington Post. “But we have had a kind of disinvestment, a freezing in our response … and we lost some efficacy.”

*******

And here are some related paragraphs about San Francisco, in a story in the San Francisco Chronicle about a concentration of drug dealers from Honduras:

THIS IS THE HOMETOWN OF SAN FRANCISCO’S DRUG DEALERS By Megan Cassidy and Gabrielle Lurie |  July 10, 2023

"Like many other U.S. cities, San Francisco shifted years ago to treating drug use more like a disease than a crime. The heavy policing approach of the War on Drugs era failed to slow dealers or decrease demand while overcrowding jails and disproportionately punishing people of color, studies show.

"Now one of the most progressive cities in the nation is fracturing over concerns that it has become too permissive. What to do about the Honduran dealers is a key political issue as a major citywide election approaches in 2024.

"On a weekday afternoon in June, a man in his early 30s lay motionless on a SoMa sidewalk outside the Federal Building. On his right, a dozen users smoked fentanyl and crack cocaine or hung bent at the waist, heads suspended at their knees. To his left, a handful of dealers, cloaked in black but for the space around their eyes, continued selling while a passerby revived the man with Narcan, the nasal-spray antidote to opioid overdoses, and as paramedics arrived to treat him a few minutes later.

“I’m so mad at them for ruining my neighborhood,” said Kevin DeMattia, who owns Emperor Norton’s bar and has lived in the Tenderloin for the past 25 years. “Businesses are dying because people don’t want to come to the Tenderloin.  They’re ruining the neighborhood in so many ways. They’re poisoning people. … They’re this cancer, this aggressive, metastasizing cancer on the Tenderloin — the dealers and the addicts.”


Tuesday, March 21, 2023

The future cannabis market?

 The Washington Post has the story on a big bet on the future of the American cannabis market:

Giant California greenhouse signals a big bet on cannabis legalization. One enormous facility on the northern edge of metro Los Angeles reveals expectations of marijuana becoming legal nationally.  By Scott Wilson

"Graham Farrar has placed the bet here. He is the president and co-founder of Glass House Farms, and the company’s greenhouse offers 5 million square feet of indoor space for cannabis production. That comes to just over 114 acres, the equivalent of about 86 football fields.

...

"Far from the misty northern redoubts of the state’s historic cannabis culture, the crop here grows just a few miles from highway-side outlet malls, an expanding regional airport, and the broad blue-stretch and logo-smile of an Amazon warehouse and distribution center.

"Those neighborhood ambitions help reveal Farrar’s own restless intent — to create a national cannabis business, even though his product, while legal in the Republic of California, remains illegal in the United States of America.

“I have the capacity, when the time is right, to produce on a national scale the best cannabis in the world,” Farrar said during a recent tour.

“And when that happens,” Farrar added, speaking of national legalization, “this farm goes from feeling really big to really small.”

...

"Last year, the California legislature passed a bill to allow licensed California cannabis businesses to sell their products in other cannabis-legal states.

...

"In a recent interview, Lee said that allowing trade with Oregon, Washington, Nevada and Colorado — all cannabis-legal states — would pose a risk not “qualitatively” different than what the state or cannabis businesses are taking now by defying federal law.

...

"In this marketing view, California is to weed what Cuba is to cigars."

Saturday, January 7, 2023

It's hard to enforce the ban on cannabis in Kansas

 Just as markets need social support, bans on markets need social support.  Even in Kansas, apparently, where marijuana remains completely outlawed. (Kansas borders on Colorado and Missouri, where (even) recreational use of marijuana is legal, and on Arkansas, and Oklahoma, where medical use is legal.)

The Guardian has the story:

A dying cancer patient used cannabis to ease pain. His hospital called the police. ‘You’d think they would have shown compassion’: patient’s son decries Kansas police who issued citation as father suffered.  by Lois Beckett

"Hospital staff in Kansas called the police on a man dying of cancer who was using cannabis products to cope with his symptoms, in an incident that has since sparked outrage and renewed calls to rethink the state’s strict cannabis laws.

"The encounter took place in mid-December, when police in the city of Hays say two officers showed up at the cancer patient’s hospital room to issue him a citation for a drug violation. 

...

"Because of the Christmas holiday, the city prosecutor had not seen the email about dismissing the charge until after the police interaction with the cancer patient had already become a viral news story, the police chief said. He said he personally let the patient know on 27 December that the police department was not pursuing the citation and that he would not have to appear in court.

"More than a hundred people have called or emailed the Hays police department, upset about news reports of officers’ interactions with the cancer patient, the chief said. "

Friday, November 11, 2022

Marijuana legalization advances in the 2022 elections

Time Magazine published this map under the headline "Why Marijuana Had a Terrible Night in the 2022 Midterm Elections"

It doesn't look so terrible to me, so much as increasingly inevitable. The grey states on the map (where marijuana remains entirely illegal) are shrinking steadily: it doesn't appear that opponents will succeed in making America grey again.


 "Nineteen states and the District of Columbia allow recreational use of marijuana; 13 states outlaw it entirely. The rest of the states—including Arkansas, South Dakota and North Dakota—allow its use for medicinal purposes. It remains illegal under federal law."

*********

It's going to become increasingly hard for States to enforce draconian laws against something that is legal in neighboring states.  That doesn't mean that legalization is always going to go smoothly--the end of Prohibition didn't end alcoholism, and the end of marijuana prohibition won't make marijuana chemically safer (in fact competition will develop strains that are chemically more potent).  But removing legal risks from what would otherwise be uncontrolled black markets, and taking them out of the hands of criminals, still seems to have momentum.

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

The (local) labor markets for terrorists and drug traffickers

 It's so hard to hire good help nowadays, but two papers in the latest Econometrica give us some insight into how that problem is solved in the labor markets for terrorists, and for narcotics.

First terrorism, which turns out to have a local financing element, suggesting frictions in moving money and terrorists...

TERRORISM FINANCING, RECRUITMENT, AND ATTACKS, by NICOLA LIMODIO, Econometrica, Vol. 90, No. 4 (July, 2022), 1711–1742

Abstract: This  paper  investigates  the  effect  of  terrorism  financing  and  recruitment  on  attacks. I exploit a Sharia-compliant institution in Pakistan, which induces unintended and quasi-experimental variation in the funding of terrorist groups through their religious affiliation. The results indicate that higher terrorism financing, in a given location and period, generate more attacks in the same location and period. Financing exhibits a complementarity in producing attacks with terrorist recruitment, measured through data from Jihadist-friendly online fora and machine learning. A higher supply of terror is responsible for the increase in attacks and is identified by studying groups with different affiliations operating in multiple cities. These findings are consistent with terrorist organizations facing financial frictions to their internal capital market.

"I study two aspects of the relationship between terrorism financing and attacks: (1) the correlation between the timing of financing and attacks; (2) the relation between financing and recruitment in generating attacks. To investigate the first point, I follow 1750 cities over 588 months between 1970 and 2018 containing the universe of terrorist attacks (e.g.,more than 14,000 events). I also build a panel with 29 terrorist groups operating in the same number of cities and the same period. To study the second point, I combine data from multiple online fora active in Pakistan disseminating Jihadist-friendly material with the work of two judges and a machine-learning algorithm, leveraging novel techniques from the computer science literature.

"The  natural  experiment  affects  a  specific  form  of  charitable  donation  and  terrorism financing through an Islamic institution: the Zakat. During Ramadan, Muslim individuals offer this Sharia-compliant contribution to philanthropic causes. While the amount is a personal choice, the Pakistani government collects a mandatory payment through a levy on bank deposits applied immediately before Ramadan.1When the tax hits fewer people due to its unique design, there is an increase in donations. This expansion in charitable donations boosts the probability that funds reach terrorist organizations due to multiple extremist groups having a legal charity branch.2 This unintended channel through which the design of the Zakat levy promotes terrorism financing has also been acknowledged by Pakistani government officials in the past.#"

# (cited newspaper article):"Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid has advised people to pay Zakat and charity to institutions which save lives and not to those producing suicide bombers."

**************

And then there's narcotics production and narco-terrorism, which to some extent runs in families.  The paper begins with this quote:

"The only way to survive, to buy food, was to grow poppy and marijuana, and from the age of 15, I began to grow, harvest, and sell.– Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, when asked how he became the leader of the Sinaloa drug cartel"

Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths, by Maria Micaela Sviatschi, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA17082, ECONOMETRICA: JUL 2022, VOLUME 90, ISSUE 4, p. 1835-1878

Abstract: This paper provides evidence that exposure to illegal labor markets during childhood leads to the formation of industry‐specific human capital at an early age, putting children on a criminal life path. Using the timing of U.S. antidrug policies, I show that when the return to illegal activities increases in coca suitable areas in Peru, parents increase the use of child labor for coca farming, putting children on a criminal life path. Using administrative records, I show that affected children are about 30% more likely to be incarcerated for violent and drug‐related crimes as adults. No effect in criminality is found for individuals that grow up working in places where the coca produced goes primarily to the legal sector, suggesting that it is the accumulation of human capital specific to the illegal industry that fosters criminal careers. However, the rollout of a conditional cash transfer program that encourages schooling mitigates the effects of exposure to illegal industries, providing further evidence on the mechanisms.

"To establish these results, I take advantage of drug enforcement policies in Colombia that shifted coca leaf production to Peru, where 90% of coca production is used to produce cocaine. In particular, in 1999, Colombia, then the world’s largest cocaine producer, implemented Plan Colombia, a U.S.-supported military-based interdiction intervention.One of the main components was the aerial spraying of coca crops in Colombia. This intervention resulted in higher prices and expanded coca production in Peru, where production doubled in districts with the optimal agroecological conditions.2 By 2012, Peru had become the largest producer of cocaine in the world.3 

"This setting yields three useful sources of variation: (i) geographic variation in coca growing  in  Peru,  (ii)  over  time  variation  in  coca  prices  induced  by  Colombian  shocks, and (iii) variation in the age of exposure, exploiting the fact that in Peru children are more  likely  to  drop  out  from  school  in  the  transition  between  primary  and  secondary education at the ages 11–14. I thus define age-specific shocks by interacting coca suitability measures and prices. Differential exposure by age arises since children within a district or village experience the changes in coca prices at different ages and due to variation in coca suitability across districts, villages, and schools."

Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Legal marijuana in New Jersey

 The NY Times has the story:

Legal Marijuana Sales Will Start Next Thursday in New Jersey. All adults will be able to purchase cannabis at certain medical-marijuana dispensaries starting April 21.  By Tracey Tully

"The first sales of recreational, adult-use cannabis in New Jersey will start next Thursday, marking the culmination of a yearslong effort to legalize marijuana and to curtail the racially unbalanced penalties for possessing the drug.

"At least a half-dozen medical-marijuana dispensaries are planning to open their doors to all adults on April 21 after winning final approval this week from New Jersey’s Cannabis Regulatory Commission.

...

"“The end of prohibition is coming to New Jersey,” said Ben Kovler, chief executive of Green Thumb Industries, which operates both dispensaries. “We’re prepared for a tidal wave of demand.”

"He estimated that New Jersey, the second state on the East Coast to begin adult-use sales, could eventually become a $3 billion industry.

“The war on drugs was a failure for people of color,” he said. “This is going to create a lot of wealth, for a lot of people.”

...

"New Jersey voters approved a referendum legalizing marijuana in November 2020, but it was not until this week that the commission established a pathway for the first legal sales of adult-use, recreational cannabis."