Monday, January 8, 2018

Medical school admissions in Germany

Sven Seuken and Stephanie Wang point me to these stories:

Germany: Selection process for medical students deemed partly unconstitutional
Germany's top court has ruled that the current method universities use to allocate places for medical studies violates equal opportunity laws. The federal government is to regulate the criteria used for offering places.

"Under the current system, German universities are able to apply what was known as the 20-20-60 rule for prospective medical students. Twenty percent of places are allocated to students with the very best overall marks in the final school exams, a selection process generally referred to as the numerus clausus. Often students with marks as high as 1.2 (the equivalent of a 3.9 GPA in the US) would not be guaranteed a place.

"A further 20 percent of places go to students who had been previously been placed on a waiting list.

"The remaining 60 percent are chosen based on various criteria determined by the individual universities — a system the judges found to be unfair.

"Three universities — Aachen, Bonn and Düsseldorf — base their selection only on the average school grades, while a number of other institutions make prospective students have an interview. Lawmakers must now work to lift these discrepancies.

"Applicants who are not accepted in the first selection round can be put on a waiting list for up to seven years, according to some estimates. The court also ordered officials to work on shortening those waiting times.


"The claim was taken to court by two applicants who had achieved a grade of 2.0 and 2.6, but hadn't been admitted to medical school after being on the waiting list for eight and six years respectively. "
**************

Here's a more detailed article in German
Medizin-NC vor dem Bundesverfassungsgericht
Sie können doch nicht warten, bis alle grau sind
(G Translate: Medical NC in the Federal Constitutional Court
You can not wait until all are gray)

Sven Seuken writes:
"The judges criticized, in particular:
@1: even if your GPA is high enough to get into some school, because of the limitation to a list length of 6 (where you rank universities), you might get unlucky and get into no school. That's unfair.

@2: If you get into a school "by waiting long enough", your waiting time to get a spot at a university might be 7.5 years. That is considered "dysfunctional". However, I have no idea if they have a better system in mind.

@3: Some universities only use the GPA as their selection criterion for category 3. The judges criticized this, and said that at least one more criterion must be used."

Sunday, January 7, 2018

More on the repugnance of selling art, if you're an art museum

In Philadelphia:
La Salle plan to sell museum masterpieces stuns art community

"La Salle University, which has struggled to plug a projected deficit in recent years, plans to sell 46 pieces of art from its prized museum collection to help fund teaching and learning initiatives in its new strategic plan, officials said Tuesday...

Approved by the school’s board of trustees and announced by university president Colleen M. Hanycz, the decision “is a strategic and good use of our assets,” university spokeswoman Jaine Lucas said. “We are doing what we feel is in the  interest of our students.”
It follows similar steps by other universities around the country in recent years to help stem financial woes — although some schools that have sold or attempted to sell art have faced challenges.
At Brandeis University in Massachusetts, a plan to close its museum and sell its art was reversed after backlash from students and faculty and legal action. Randolph College in Virginia was roundly criticized for its decision to sell a George Bellows painting worth more than $25 million.
The same controversy could follow the decision at La Salle, a 3,200-student Catholic university in Philadelphia’s Logan section, whose collection composes one of the most highly regarded university museums in the region. Just hours after the announcement, members of the local art community began questioning the decision."


"The process of selling art, known as deaccessioning, is a fraught one for museums; major professional organizations like the American Alliance of Museums condemn the sale of art to pay for expansions, physical repairs or ongoing expenses, as opposed to using the proceeds for the acquisition of other works or, perhaps, the care of a collection.

At times, government agencies that oversee nonprofit institutions have intervened to halt sales.

In 2009, for instance, the attorney general’s office in Massachusetts conducted a detailed review of Brandeis University’s unexpected announcement that it would shore up its struggling finances by selling all of the works––including those by Robert Rauschenberg, Jasper Johns, Andy Warhol and Roy Lichtenstein––held by its Rose Art Museum, one of the most important collections of postwar art in New England.

Later four of the museum’s benefactors sued to stop any art sales.

That lawsuit and the attorney general’s investigation were both resolved in 2011, with Brandeis announcing that it had “no aim, plan, design, strategy or intention to sell any artwork donated to or purchased by” the school for the museum and that the Rose museum will remain a “university art museum open to the public.”

Saturday, January 6, 2018

The open culture of academic economics

I'll be delivering the Presidential Address at the American Economic Association meetings in Philadelphia today, with a paper to follow later this year. I plan to talk and write about marketplaces, which I think are understudied parts of markets. And I think that market design has a bright future, both as a kind of engineering economics that can help people in very concrete ways, and as a way to shed new light on markets and how they work.

But I'm also finding this a moment to take a look backward as well as forward. Personally, looking backward fills me with feelings of gratitude: not only to my family and to my teachers and advisers, to my wonderful students and coauthors; but also to the profession of economics and all of you economists who made me welcome, although economics isn’t a subject in which I ever received any degree.

During my professional career I have participated in at least three academic insurrections, which brought game theory into economics, and experimental and behavioral economics, and most recently market design.  There have been other revolutions as well, in econometrics and computation and access to large linked data sets among others. And these revolutions have come about largely because economists are on the whole enthusiastic about finding new ways to explore the large swath of human behavior that makes up economics.

I hasten to add that this welcoming of new ideas isn't magical, or even immediately apparent. Like raising children, it's a slow process while it's going on, but it becomes clear in retrospect how fast it actually is. Paper by paper (referee report by referee report) academic economics can feel pretty conservative and resistant to change. But when you look at things at the time scale of decades, economics has opened up to new ideas very fast.

We've also been welcoming to intellectual immigrants: to people as well as ideas. I'm hardly alone among economists of my generation who don't have degrees in economics. A bunch of us rode in on the wave that brought game theory into economics. Not every discipline is as open to new ideas or new people.  This openness is something to treasure, gratefully and vigilantly.

Looking ahead, I hope we can continue to nurture this openness to both ideas and people.  Exciting things are happening in other disciplines (computer science, biology...), and there's plenty of room for cross fertilization between disciplines, as well among the diverse points of view and diverse people already "inside" economics.

Economics is still an early-stage science, so it's an exciting time to be an economist. There's lots of progress we still need to make, it's important for the world that we do so, and there are some indications of fruitful paths to follow.  I'm looking forward with substantial optimism.

Friday, January 5, 2018

Black markets in guns without serial numbers

The WSJ has the story:

The Rise of Untraceable ‘Ghost Guns’
An emerging black-market gun-making industry lets buyers bypass background checks and gun regulations, authorities say

"The number of these weapons in the U.S. is unknown. Because the guns bear no serial numbers, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is unable to track them. Serial numbers and gun registration play a key role in police and government investigations, allowing officers to trace a weapon’s history and owners.

"Ghost guns appear to be most prevalent in California, where there are restrictions on assault weapons that make it difficult to buy guns that are available in other states. But the firearms have been seized in criminal investigations in other states, including Arizona, Maryland, New York and Texas.
...
"“It went from being a niche group of people that were into the gun culture that were the ones making them for themselves,” said Mr. Barlowe. “Now, they’ve become so commonplace we’re buying them from 17-year-old gang-members on the street.”

"The starting point for building a ghost gun is an “unfinished receiver,” a metal or polymer piece that houses the firing mechanism. It can be purchased online without a background check, because the ATF doesn’t classify the part as a firearm.
...
"“There is a loophole under federal law that allows an individual to make a firearm,” said  Justin Lee, a federal prosecutor in Sacramento who has handled several ghost gun cases. “That loophole only extends to that person. The person breaks the law as soon as they are transferring that firearm.”
...
"The prevalence of online retailers and YouTube instructional videos has given ghost guns a boost, according to Mr. Barlowe. He said illicit gun dealers can buy parts for an AR-15 style rifle for about $700, put in a few hours of sweat equity, and sell it on the street for $1,000 to $2,000.
...
"Gun-owners distrustful of registering their firearms with the government also are customers. “Unserialized, Unregistered” is the slogan for GhostGuns.com, which sells handgun kits, unfinished receivers, and other items. Kyle Martin, president of Ghost America LLC, which runs the site, said customers “want to enjoy their complete freedom as American citizens.”

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Some ASSA sessions I would go to if I could, and some I'll certainly attend

I'm going to be a busy boy at the AEA/ASSA meetings, since as president of the AEA I'll preside over many champagne receptions and a few other things.  But the conference looks like fun. Here are just a few of the sessions that particularly caught my eye, even though I have conflicts with some of them...

Econometric Society Presidential Address



Session/Event

 Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018   5:30 PM - 7:00 PM

 Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Liberty Ballroom
Hosted By: ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY
    Econometric Society Presidential Address
    Drew Fudenberg, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Speaker(s)
    Drew Fudenberg
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Topic: Learning, Experimentation, and Equilibrium Refinements
    ************

    Economic Applications of Machine Learning



    Paper Session

     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   8:00 AM - 10:00 AM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Liberty Ballroom Salon A
    Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: Daniel BjörkegrenBrown University

    A Large Scale Model of Travel Time and User Choice Behavior

    Susan Athey
    ,
    Stanford University
    Robert Donnelly
    ,
    Stanford University

    Behavior Revealed in Mobile Phone Usage Predicts Loan Repayment

    Daniel Björkegren
    ,
    Brown University
    Darrell Grissen
    ,
    Entrepreneurial Finance Lab

    Estimating Poverty and Wealth From Mobile Phone Data

    Joshua Blumenstock
    ,
    University of California-Berkeley
    Gabriel Cadamuro
    ,
    University of Washington
    Robert On
    ,
    University of California-Berkeley

    Forecasting Economic Activity With Yelp Data

    Edward Glaeser
    ,
    Harvard University
    Hyunjin Kim
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    Michael Luca
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    Discussant(s)
    Michael Luca
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    Marshall Burke
    ,
    Stanford University
    Greg Lewis
    ,
    Microsoft Research
    Shane Greenstein
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    ************

    Like Everybody Else: Experimental Economics of Conformity, Image, and Identity



    Paper Session

     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Meeting Room 305
    Hosted By: ECONOMIC SCIENCE ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: James AndreoniUniversity of California-San Diego

    Identity and Impact in Public Goods Contributions: A Field Experiment on Wikipedia

    Yan Chen
    ,
    University of Michigan
    Rosta Farzan
    ,
    University of Pittsburgh
    Robert Kraut
    ,
    Carnegie Mellon University
    Iman YeckehZarre
    ,
    University of Michigan
    Ark Fangzhou Zhang
    ,
    University of Michigan

    Status Goods: Experimental Evidence From Platinum Credit Cards

    Leonardo Bursztyn
    ,
    University of Chicago and NBER
    Bruno Ferman
    ,
    Getulio Vargas Foundation
    Stefano Fiorin
    ,
    University of California-San Diego
    Martin Kanz
    ,
    World Bank
    Gautam Rao
    ,
    Harvard University and NBER

    Preference Endogeneity and Conformity

    Douglas Bernheim
    ,
    Stanford University
    Christine Exley
    ,
    Harvard Business School

    The Conformity Trap: Adaptation and Stagnation of Social Norms in a Changing World

    James Andreoni
    ,
    University of California-San Diego
    Nikos Nikiforakis
    ,
    New York University Abu Dhabi
    Simon Siegenthaler
    ,
    University of Texas-Dallas
    Discussant(s)
    Alain Cohn
    ,
    University of Michigan
    Desmond Ang
    ,
    University of California-San Diego
    Florian Ederer
    ,
    Yale University
    Ariel Rubinstein
    ,
    New York University
    *********

    Large Matching Markets



    Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   8:00 AM - 10:00 AM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Meeting Room 406
    Hosted By: ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY
    • Chair: SangMok LeeUniversity of Pennsylvania

    The Cutoff Structure of Top Trading Cycles in School Choice

    Jacob D. Leshno
    ,
    Columbia University
    Irene Lo
    ,
    Columbia University

    Need Versus Merit: The Large Core of College Admissions Markets

    Avinatan Hassidim
    ,
    Bar-Ilan University
    Assaf Romm
    ,
    Hebrew University of Jerusalem
    Ran I. Shorrer
    ,
    Pennsylvania State University

    Top Trading Cycles in Two-Sided Matching Markets: An Irrelevance of Priorities in Large Matching Markets

    Yeon-Koo Che
    ,
    Columbia University
    Olivier Tercieux
    ,
    Paris School of Economics
    Discussant(s)
    Eduardo Azevedo
    ,
    University of Pennsylvania
    Utku Unver
    ,
    Boston College
    Scott Duke Kominers
    ,
    Harvard University
    Atila Abdulkadiroglu
    ,
    Duke University
    *************

    Inner Workings of Organ Markets and Organ Allocation


    Paper Session

     Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

     Pennsylvania Convention Center, 201-C
    Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: Eric BudishUniversity of Chicago

    The Inner Workings of Kidney Exchange Markets

    Nikhil Agarwal
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Itai Ashlagi
    ,
    Stanford University
    Eduardo Azevedo
    ,
    University of Pennsylvania
    Clayton Featherstone
    ,
    University of Pennsylvania
    Omer Karaduman
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    A Regulated Market for Kidneys

    Mohammad Akbarpour
    ,
    Stanford University

    Strategic Behavior in the Kidney Waitlist

    Nikhil Agarwal
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Itai Ashlagi
    ,
    Stanford University
    Paulo J. Somaini
    ,
    Stanford University
    Discussant(s)
    Utku Unver
    ,
    Boston College
    Glen Weyl
    ,
    Microsoft Research
    Benjamin R. Handel
    ,
    University of California-Berkeley
    ******

    Here are some sessions I'm looking forward to attending ex officio:


    AEA/AFA Joint Luncheon - Fee Event


     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   12:30 PM - 2:15 PM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
    Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION & AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: David ScharfsteinHarvard Business School
    Presiding: David Scharfstein, Harvard Business School
    Speaker: Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago
    Speaker(s)
    Raghuram Rajan
    ,
    University of Chicago
    Topic: Liquidity and Leverage
    ************

    Session/Event

     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   4:45 PM - 5:45 PM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
    Hosted By: American Economic Association
      Speaker: David Laibson, Harvard University
        *************


        AEA Nobel Laureate Luncheon-Fee Event

        Session/Event

         Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   12:30 PM - 2:15 PM

         Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
        Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
        • Chair: Olivier BlanchardPeterson Institute for International Economics
        Nobel Laureate Luncheon Honoring the 2016 Nobel Laureates in Economics: Oliver Hart, Harvard University and Bengt R. Holmstrom, Massachusetts Institute of Technology--Fee Event--
        Presiding: Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics--
        Speakers: Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago
        **********

        AEA Awards Ceremony and Presidential Address

        Session/Event

         Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   4:30 PM - 5:45 PM

         Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
        Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
        • Chair: Olivier BlanchardPeterson Institute for International Economics
        Awards Ceremony & Presidential Address
        Presiding: Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics
        Speaker: Alvin E. Roth, Stanford University
        Topic: Markets and Marketplaces
        ****************

        New Insights on Classic Questions in Matching Theory

        Paper Session

         Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018   10:15 AM - 12:15 PM

         Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Liberty Ballroom Salon A
        Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
        • Chair: Alvin E. RothStanford University

        Deferred Acceptance with Compensation Chains

        Piotr Dworczak
        ,
        Stanford University

        Virtual Demand and Stable Mechanisms

        Jan Christoph Schlegel
        ,
        University of Lausanne

        Lone Wolves in Competitive Equilibria

        Ravi Jagadeesan
        ,
        Harvard University
        Scott Duke Kominers
        ,
        Harvard University
        Ross Rheingans-Yoo
        ,
        Harvard University
        Discussant(s)
        Alexander Teytelboym
        ,
        University of Oxford