Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Incentives in multi-hospital kidney exchange

Itai Ashlagi and I have a paper in the latest issue of Theoretical Economics:
Free riding and participation in large scale, multi-hospital kidney exchange
Volume 9Issue 3pages 817–863September 2014
Abstract: "As multi-hospital kidney exchange has grown, the set of players has grown from patients and surgeons to include hospitals. Hospitals can choose to enroll only their hard-to-match patient–donor pairs, while conducting easily arranged exchanges internally. This behavior has already been observed.

We show that as the population of hospitals and patients grows, the cost of making it individually rational for hospitals to participate fully becomes low in almost every large exchange pool (although the worst-case cost is very high), while the cost of failing to guarantee individual rationality is high—in lost transplants. We identify a mechanism that gives hospitals incentives to reveal all patient–donor pairs. We observe that if such a mechanism were to be implemented and hospitals enrolled all their pairs, the resulting patient pools would allow efficient matchings that could be implemented with two- and three-way exchanges."

The paper was actually written some time ago, and took a long time to publish partly because the phenomenon it identifies, the withholding of easy to match pairs by big transplant centers, was controversial among referees. It isn't controversial anymore: it's one of the clearest features of contemporary kidney exchange that the flow of incoming patients to multi-hospital kidney exchange is skewed towards the hardest to match patients. Hence the success of  potentially long, non-simultaneous extended altruistic donor chains (NEAD chains), which we've explored in other papers.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

More transplant troubles in Germany

Rosemarie Nagel points me to this article, in German: Transplantationen: Prüfer decken Manipulationen am Berliner Herzzentrum auf

Google Translate gives this for the summary:
"The German Heart Institute Berlin has manipulated according to a report in 14 cases in transplantation. Syndromes were described incorrectly and the dose of medication was overstated in order to get donor organs faster."

Some earlier posts are here:
Deceased donor waiting lists in Germany: scandal and aftermath

Incentives and organ donation in Germany

Monday, October 6, 2014

Cooperating with the future, and renewable resources

Here's a paper that I missed when it came out:





Cooperating with the future

Nature   25 June 2014

Sunday, October 5, 2014

More on eating horse meat (and saving horses)

Eat ponies to save them - says charity

"It maybe be controversial but an animal group is the latest to endorse the Princess Royal's suggestion of eating ponies in a bid to save their species..
The Dartmoor Hill Pony Association (DHPA) says the best way to save herds on the ancient moorland is by creating a "market" for them by eating them.
It follows comments by Princess Anne endorsing eating horses to improve their welfare.
...
"Founder of the DHPA, Charlotte Faulkner believes herders will only continue to keep the animals if there is a "sustainable market" for them.
In a letter proposing the idea sent to South West Equine Protection (SWEP), she said: "I am writing to ask whether SWEP would consider giving measured support to this understandably upsetting subject, which as pony lovers we find so hard to accept."

HT: Shengwu Li

Saturday, October 4, 2014

The wholesale used car market

My colleague Brad Larsen has an NBER paper that looks at the post-auction bargaining for used cars that didn't reach their reserve price in the market to dealers.

The Efficiency of Real-World Bargaining: Evidence from Wholesale Used-Auto Auctions

Bradley Larsen

NBER Working Paper No. 20431
Issued in August 2014
NBER Program(s):   IO 
This study quantifies the efficiency of a real-world bargaining game with two-sided incomplete information. Myerson and Satterthwaite (1983) and Williams (1987) derived the theoretical efficient frontier for bilateral trade under two-sided uncertainty, but little is known about how well real-world bargaining performs relative to the frontier. The setting is wholesale used-auto auctions, an $80 billion industry where buyers and sellers participate in alternating-offer bargaining when the auction price fails to reach a secret reserve price. Using 270,000 auction/bargaining sequences, this study nonparametrically estimates bounds on the distributions of buyer and seller valuations and then estimates where bargaining outcomes lie relative to the efficient frontier. Findings indicate that the dynamic mechanism attains 80-91% of the surplus which can be achieved on the efficient frontier.


Friday, October 3, 2014

Combinatorial clock auctions

My colleagues Jon Levin and Andy Skrzypacz have an NBER paper on combinatorial clock auctions of the kind proposed by Ausubel, Cramton and Milgrom (2006), which are becoming widely used outside of the U.S. to auction spectrum. They point to it's multiplicity of equilibria, in some of which bidders can act to raise their competitors' payments without changing their own, as a source of potential problems, some of which may have been observed in practice,

Are Dynamic Vickrey Auctions Practical?: Properties of the Combinatorial Clock Auction

Jonathan LevinAndrzej Skrzypacz

NBER Working Paper No. 20487
Issued in September 2014
NBER Program(s):   IO 
The combinatorial clock auction is becoming increasingly popular for large-scale spectrum awards and other uses, replacing more traditional ascending or clock auctions. We describe some surprising properties of the auction, including a wide range of ex post equilibria with demand expansion, demand reduction and predation. These outcomes arise because of the way the auction separates allocation and pricing, so that bidders are asked to make decisions that cannot possibly affect their own auction outcome. Our results obtain in a standard homogenous good setting where bidders have well-behaved linear demand curves, and suggest some practical difficulties with dynamic implementations of the Vickrey auction.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Organ and blood donation from gay men

Several repugnancies coincide in this sad story that actually involves a suicide apparently resulting from bullying. So, read the whole story, but I'll just highlight here the parts about organ donation: Gay teen’s organ donation rejected

"Before he died, Betts had a request: Donate my organs. A 14-year-old boy received Betts’s heart, according to a letter Moore received, but she said his eyes were rejected.
"A Food and Drug Administration’s guidance for donor eligibility says men who have had sex with men in the past five years “should” be ruled as “ineligible” for donating certain tissues, labeling their behavior a “risk factor.”
...
"The FDA’s guidance reflects its ban on blood from men who have sex with men. That policy is a by-product of the AIDS crisis that ripped through the gay men’s community decades ago.
"The FDA explains its much harder line regarding blood as such: Men who have had sex with men “at any time since 1977 (the beginning of the AIDS epidemic in the United States) are currently deferred as blood donors” because “a history of male-to-male sex is associated with an increased risk for exposure to and transmission of certain infectious diseases, including HIV.”
"Critics have long called the policy discriminatory, but the FDA says it’snecessary: “FDA’s deferral policy is based on the documented increased risk of certain transfusion transmissible infections, such as HIV, associated with male-to-male sex and is not based on any judgment concerning the donor’s sexual orientation.”
...
"In the Journal of the American Medical Association, Glenn Cohen, a bioethics law professor at the Harvard Law School, wrote that the United States should repeal the rules about blood. “We think it’s time for the FDA to take a serious look at this policy, because it’s out of step with peer countries, it’s out of step with modern medicine, it’s out of step with public opinion, and we feel it may be legally problematic,” he told CBS
Cohen notes some contradictions in the FDA blood ban: Men who have sex with HIV-positive women or sex workers are banned for only a year.
Last summer, the American Medical Association voted to end the ban. According to Time magazine, William Kobler, a board member for the the association, said in a statement, “The lifetime ban on blood donation for men who have sex with men is discriminatory and not based on sound science.”
...
"In Betts’s case, his liver, lungs, kidneys and heart all found recipients. Unlike blood, as long as a recipient gives consent to any associated potential risks (such as HIV transmission) after counseling, certain organs can be donated. But because his mother could not confirm to the donor network that her son hadn’t been sexually active in the five years before his death, Betts’s eyes were rejected.
“This is archaic,” Moore told KCCI. “And it is just silly that people wouldn’t get the life-saving assistance they need because of regulations that are 30 years old.”

HT: Thayer Morrill

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Helmet laws and organ donors

Would it be repugnant to have a state helmet/donor law that said you are free to ride a motorcycle without wearing a helmet, but when you do so you assert that you wish to be an organ donor in the event of a fatal accident?

Here's a paper from 2011 that suggests such a law might have some effect, since apparently helmet laws reduce organ donations.

Donorcycles: Motorcycle Helmet Laws and the Supply of Organ Donors

Stacy Dickert-ConlinTodd Elder (telder@msu.edu) and Brian Moore
Journal of Law and Economics, 2011, vol. 54, issue 4, pages 907 - 935
Abstract: Traffic safety mandates are typically designed to reduce the harmful externalities of risky behaviors. We consider whether motorcycle helmet laws also reduce a beneficial externality by decreasing the supply of viable organ donors. Our central estimates show that organ donations resulting from fatal motor vehicle accidents increase by 10 percent when states repeal helmet laws. Two features of this association suggest that it is causal: first, nearly all of it is concentrated among men, who account for over 90 percent of all motorcyclist deaths, and second, helmet laws are unrelated to the supply of donors who die in circumstances other than motor vehicle accidents. The estimates imply that every death of a helmetless motorcyclist prevents or delays as many as .33 death among individuals on organ transplant waiting lists.


Here's a related news story that came up when I searched:
Economist studies link between helmet-free bikers, organ donors

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Call for papers: special issue on Matching in honor of Marilda Sotomayor, in Journal of Dynamics and Games

This call for papers arrived yesterday by email:

Call for Papers


Journal of Dynamics and Games is pleased to invite paper submissions for  
Matching : Theory and Applications,
a Special Issue dedicated to Marilda Sotomayor on the occasion of her 70th birthday.

Marilda Sotomayor is a foundational figure in the development of matching theory and applications in economics with seminal contributions on the structural, game theoretic and mechanism design aspects of the basic model and its extensions. Her volume, Two-Sided Matching (1992), co-authored with 2012 Nobel laureate Roth is the singular textbook in the area, which was awarded the prestigious Frederick W. Lanchester Prize. 

Papers are welcome on all aspects of matching games and markets, theoretical as well as applied, including the analysis and design of institutions or marketplaces, e.g. for jobs or school choice, for houses or organ exchange.  

Please submit your paper directly to one of the invited editors using their email.

Invited Editors:
Ahmet Alkan
Sabancı University, Turkey
Jesús David Pérez Castrillo
Myrna Wooders
Vanderbilt University, USA
Email: myrna.wooders@vanderbilt.edu
John Wooders


Submissions deadline: 28 of  February 2015.

Monday, September 29, 2014

New match for medical physics residency positions

Since you ask (Should there be a residency match for medical physics?), the answer is yes. Here's the announcement: 2015 Medical Physics Matching Program. It's organized by National Matching Services, and will use the Roth-Peranson algorithm.

HT: Jonah Peranson of NMS

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Repugnance of animal sales by zoos

Luke Stein writes to me:

"As the consummate collector of repugnant market stories, I thought you might be interested in a recent NPR story on the exchange of animals across zoos.

Planet Money Episode 566: The Zoo Economy

Zoo animals are different than most possessions, because zoos follow a fundamental principle: You can't sell or buy the animals. It's unethical and illegal to put a price tag on an elephant's head. Today on the show: What do you do in a world where you can't use money?

I don’t remember seeing anything on the blog about zoo animal exchange, and it seems some interesting phenomena have arisen in the face of barriers on the use of money as a medium of exchange. For example, it sounds as if there are barter chains that can get started with certain animals for which there is widespread demand (e.g., jellyfish), and that these chains are fostered by zoos’ developing a reputation for “generosity.”

Unfortunately, the story is audio only—a transcript doesn’t seem available yet—but I was glad to have heard it."
*****************

I'm reminded of the repugnance aroused by the prospect of art museums selling art works.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

An interview in Spanish (with English translation), and one in German

Jordi Benetiz of Capital Magazine interviewed me, and the interview appears on their website, in Spanish, here: Alvin Roth, Nobel de Economía en 2012: “La pobreza está a menudo relacionada con los fallos en los mercados”

There's also an English version here: “Often poverty is related to the failure of markets”

***********
And here's an article in German, which seems to be based on an interview I gave in Lindau, although the picture is from a panel session there:  Der Markt-Designer

Friday, September 26, 2014

Illegal trade in protected species

The NY Times ran a recent story on the crime lab in Ashland Oregon that handles cases related to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES): Animal Traffic

"The lab has been described as “Scotland Yard for animals” and ” ‘CSI’ meets ‘Doctor Dolittle.’ ”
...
"Wildlife crime has grown to a $19 billion dollar annual global trade, according to a report released last year by the International Fund for Animal Welfare, a conservation nonprofit. The black market in wildlife parts and products is the fourth-largest illegal industry worldwide, behind narcotics, counterfeiting and human trafficking, and it may well outstrip other illicit enterprises in terms of the variety of crimes and the complexities they pose for law enforcement. The wildlife trade encompasses culinary delicacies and Asian medicines, pets and hunting trophies, clothing and jewelry. It takes in commodities such as elephant ivory, rhinoceros horn, bushmeat, the shells of giant tortoises, the pelts of big-game cats. The environmental and social costs of the trade are grave. Wildlife crime is contributing to the erosion of natural resources and the spread of infectious diseases; it is providing robust new revenue streams for criminal syndicates and even terrorists. In a July 2013 executive order enhancing United States government coordination to combat wildlife crime, President Obama deemed the surge in poaching and trafficking an “international crisis” that is “fueling instability and undermining security.”

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Competition by intermediaries can drive up prices:

A paper by Ben Edelman and Julian Wright considers how intermediaries can compete with each other for buyers by offering bigger refunds than do their competitors, resulting in higher prices and lower welfare...

Price Coherence and Adverse Intermediation by Benjamin Edelman and Julian Wright


Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Kidneys for sale: debates about Iran and it's implications for markets in the West

As I indicated in my post yesterday, the conversation about compensating kidney donors is heating up. Various email correspondents brought to my attention the latest issue of the American Journal of Bioethics, which has a "target" article by Julian Koplin of Monash University and a number of responses and comments. Koplin argues that the experience of kidney sales in Iran should give pause to advocates of (even) regulated markets in the developed world. A number of the commentators argue that the evidence that he cites from Iran is now outdated, among other things. But the conclusions of the commentators are all over the map, from pro to anti and including appeals for allowing some experimentation to gather more evidence, and arguments against 'crossing the Rubicon' by allowing such trials.

I don't know of an ungated URL where you can read this, but of course if you have electronic access to a University library you can likely download it there.

Volume 14, Issue 10, 2014< Prev

The American Journal of Bioethics

ISSN
1526-5161 (Print), 1536-0075 (Online)
Publication Frequency 
12 issues per year
 

Editorial

Nancy S. Jecker
pages 1-6

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.953858
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 18

Target Article

Julian Koplin
pages 7-18

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947041
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (16) 
  • Article Views: 15
Further Information

Open Peer Commentaries

I. Glenn Cohen
pages 19-21

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947787
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 7

James Taylor
pages 21-22

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947802
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 9

Alexander M. CapronGabriel M. Danovitch & Francis L. Delmonico
pages 23-25

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947048
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 10

Alberto Giubilini
pages 25-27

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947797
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 11

Erik Malmqvist
pages 27-29

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947799
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 7

Samuel J. Kerstein
pages 29-30

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947798
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 7

Benjamin Hippen
pages 31-33

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947047
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 7

Monir Moniruzzaman
pages 33-35

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947801
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 6

Kiarash Aramesh
pages 35-37

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947044
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 8

Sigrid Fry-Revere
pages 37-38

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947042
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 11

Miran Epstein
pages 39-40

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947043
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 6

Atieh PajouhiFarzaneh ZahediZeinab Pajouhi & Bagher Larijani
pages 40-42

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947443
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 6

Ryan Tonkens
pages 42-44

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947046
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 7

Julie AllardAviva Goldberg & Marie-Chantal Fortin
pages 44-45

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947442
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing articles: 0
  • Article Views: 7

Dominique Martin & Sarah White
pages 46-48

  • DOI:10.1080/15265161.2014.947045
  • Published online: 17 Sep 2014
  • Citing Articles:
    CrossRef (1) 
  • Article Views: 7