Prediction markets, polling, and insider trading

 My book about controversial markets has attracted some interest from people following prediction markets.  Here's another recent interview.

 

Nobel Winner Alvin Roth Sizes Up Prediction Markets: 'I Don't Know If They Do Better On Elections Than Polls'  by Daragh Thomas  

In an interview with Benzinga after the release of his new book Moral Economics, Stanford economist Alvin Roth said the strongest use-case for the technology may not be public platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, but inside corporations. He described a scenario where engineers building a product know about delays that senior executives, working from optimistic reports, do not. A prediction market inside the company can get the information to the top faster. 

...

"He said election markets are unlikely to face serious insider-trading risk, but neither are they guaranteed to beat good polling. “I don’t know that prediction markets do a lot better on elections than good polls do,” he said.

"He flagged a different concern: manipulation. State actors or well-funded propaganda operations could push large sums into a market to engineer a favorable price."

...

"Securities markets exist in part to help companies raise capital, he said, which requires public trust. Prediction markets do not carry the same burden, so the harm from insider activity is less clear.

"He added that if real insider trading is happening off political news, the likelier venue is the commodities market. “The price of Brent Crude moves rapidly when the president says something,” Roth said." 

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Earlier: 

Tuesday, June 30, 2026  Sports Betting, Prediction Markets, and ‘Repugnant Transactions’--a conversation at Covers.com