How successfully have military measures limited the supply of cocaine?

 There are two ways of measuring the success of military measures to limit the supply of cocaine.  There's the military measure of how many people are killed and how much cocaine is confiscated. And there's the economic measure of how much cocaine is available to consumers, at what price and quality.

The WSJ has the story (of plunging prices and rising quality):

Why U.S. Airstrikes Are Failing to Stop the Global Cocaine Boom
Smugglers are shifting routes and using new tactics to evade military targeting, resulting in record supplies, plunging prices and high purity in the U.S. and Europe   by Juan Forero
 |
"BUENAVENTURA, Colombia—The Trump administration’s bombing campaign against cocaine-smuggling speedboats is starting to have an impact on the global drug trade—but not necessarily in a good way.

...

"Record supplies of cocaine still arrive in the U.S., Europe and as far away as Australia every day, cheaper and purer than they’ve been in decades, said law-enforcement officials across four continents. 

"President Trump has celebrated the airstrikes, noting his administration has “made tremendous strides in stopping the flow of illegal drugs into our country.” In the past 13 months, American military drones and aircraft have destroyed more than 70 vessels, killing nearly 240 crew members and depriving criminal groups of $1.5 billion in cocaine, according to U.S. officials. 

“The drugs coming in by sea are down by 97%,” Trump said in June. “We’re trying to figure out who the 3% are, because they are the bravest people on earth.”

...

"The scale of the trade is evident on the streets of drug-consuming countries, where supply is outstripping demand to the point that prices are plunging. In Miami, wholesale cocaine sold for about $16,500 a kilogram this summer, well below the historical $22,000 to $25,000 range. Similarly, European prices have plummeted from $45,000 to as low as $16,000 a kilogram in some cities. 

"In both markets, purity remains remarkably high, sometimes hitting 98% in Europe, because dealers no longer need to stretch supplies with adulterants. "

 

NBER Market Design Working Group Meeting, tomorrow at Stanford

 Here's the program for the NBER Market Design Working Group Meeting, Fall 2026

I'll be discussing Moral Economics with Canice Prendergast. 

Friday, October 16

8:00 am Continental Breakfast

 

9:00 am Personalized Recommendations Without Inducing Congestion: Mitigating Disparities in the NYC High School Match

Erica Chiang, Cornell University

Nikhil Garg, Cornell University

Jon Kleinberg, Cornell University

Rebecca Lichtenstein, New York City Public Schools

Brielle McDaniel, New York City Public Schools

Kristen O’Neil, New York City Public Schools

Kenny Peng, Cornell University

Eva Tardos, Cornell University

Dejaunique Thomas, New York City Public Schools

Lianna Wright, New York City Public Schools

 

9:45 am Who Gets What in Education: Can School Matching Improve Student Achievement?

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Duke University and NBER

Parag A. Pathak, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER

Christopher R. Walters, University of California, Berkeley and NBER

 

10:30 am Break

11:00 am Searchable Menus

Piotr Dworczak, Northwestern University

Frank Yang, Stanford University

 

11:45 am Two-Sided Matching with Partial Participation

Avinatan Hassidim, Bar-Ilan University

Assaf Romm, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Ran Shorrer, The Pennsylvania State University

 

12:30 pm Lunch and Conversation with Al Roth about his latest book, "Moral Economics" with Canice Prendergast as Moderator

 

2:30 pm Clearing Multi-Unit Markets with Simple Pricing

Ali Makhdoumi, Duke University

Saša Pekeč, Duke University

Xinchang Wang, Duke University

 

3:15 pm Quota Marketplace: Dynamic Pricing for Efficient Allocation of ML Training Resources

Vasilis Gkatzelis, Drexel University

Renato Paes Leme, Google Research

Ian McFarlane, Google Research

Nehal Mehta, Google Research

Vahab Mirrokni, Google Research

Balasubramanian Sivan, Google Research

Mihai Tiuca, Google Research

Amin Vahdat, Google Research

Soheil Hassas Yeganeh, Google Research

 

4:00 pm Break

 

4:30 pm One-Shot Pricing for Hands-Off-the-Wheel Advertising Markets

Emerson Melo, Indiana University

Matthew Shum, California Institute of Technology

Rakesh Vohra, University of Pennsylvania

 

5:15 pm Paying for Information, Not for Clicks: A Block-Level Publisher Content Marketplace for AI Answers

Markus Mobius, Microsoft Research

Nicole Immorlica, Microsoft Research

Oliver Kiss, Spreadmonitor

Brendan Lucier, Microsoft Research

Ishan Mahajan, Microsoft Research

Jingyi Qiu, University of Michigan School of Information

Tanya Rosenblat, University of Michigan

David M. Rothschild, Microsoft Research

Andras Sari, Central European University

Colin Watson, Microsoft Research

6:30 pm Group Dinner 

 

Saturday, October 17

8:00 am

Continental Breakfast

9:00 am

Screening for Usage

Justin Hadad, Stanford University

Kyle Woodward, Assign Group

 

9:45 am

Pricing the Right to Renege in Search Markets: Evidence from Trucking

Richard Faltings, University of California, San Diego

 

10:30 am

Break

 

11:00 am

Competition and Welfare in Airport Slot Allocation

Sebastian D. Bauer, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

11:45 am

Road Pricing under Heterogeneity

Itai Ater, Tel Aviv University

Brad Ross, University of Pennsylvania

Adi Shany, Tel Aviv University

Shoshana Vasserman, Stanford University and NBER

 

12:30 pm

Boxed Lunch and Adjourn

Kidney exchange in India at a national scale: a growing consensus

There's growing consensus in India on moving towards a nationwide kidney exchange program. 

Kute V, Kumar A, Balwani M et al.
Operational guidelines for kidney swap transplantation in India: an ISOT-NOTTO Delphi consensus
The Lancet Regional Health – Southeast Asia, 2026; 0 

 

 

 Among the consensus recommendations is this one, which summarizes the general positive tone adopted for national kidney exchange.

"Each transplant center should initiate and expand swap transplantation, given that it is legal, cost-effective, yields better outcomes, and can help prevent unethical commercial transplants by improving access. Multicentric swap transplantation programmes should roll out in phases: start with intra-city exchanges, then intra-state, and eventually inter-state and national collaborations. This phased approach ensures growing scale is matched with operational readiness, providing safe, equitable, and efficient transplants across regions." 

The University of Cincinnati celebrates Steve Woodle

Dr. Steve Woodle, one of the pioneers of kidney exchange, is being honored in Cincinnati.  You can read of his many distinctions below, but here's a striking one: he is the "the first liver transplant recipient to perform a liver transplant."

2026 Daniel Drake Medals  The University of Cincinnati College of Medicine’s highest honor 

E. Steve Woodle, MD

E. Steve Woodle, MD

Woodle, professor of surgery and the William A. Altemeier endowed chair in surgery at the College of Medicine, is a multiorgan transplant surgeon and transplant immunologist who has spent more than four decades advancing the understanding of organ rejection and pioneering immunosuppressive therapies that have reshaped transplantation. Earlier in his career at the University of Chicago, he performed a liver transplant on a 10-day-old infant, setting a Guinness World Record for the youngest liver transplant recipient. He joined the College of Medicine in 1999 and directed the Division of Transplantation for nearly two decades, building an internationally recognized program of clinical and research excellence. In 2001, he performed Ohio’s first allogeneic islet transplant for type 1 diabetes. After undergoing his own liver transplant in 2003, Woodle returned to the operating room and became the first liver transplant recipient to perform a liver transplant.

Woodle has helped originate several therapeutic approaches now considered standard in transplantation. As a fellow, he conceived the genetic re-engineering of OKT3, the first FDA-approved monoclonal antibody — work later developed into teplizumab (Tzield), which the FDA approved in 2022 as the first immunomodulatory therapy for type 1 diabetes. He was the first investigator to introduce plasma cell-targeted therapy for a non-malignant human disease, using proteasome inhibitors to treat antibody-mediated rejection in kidney transplant recipients. He also pioneered corticosteroid-free immunosuppression, including the field’s landmark double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of early corticosteroid withdrawal. He helped conceive and establish clinical kidney exchange for incompatible living-donor pairs, publishing the field’s first peer-reviewed description in the New England Journal of Medicine in 1997. Kidney exchange now accounts for roughly one in five living-donor kidney transplants in the U.S.

His scholarship includes more than 400 scientific publications cited more than 22,000 times, and he has delivered more than 700 invited lectures and mentored generations of transplant surgeons, physicians and pharmacists. In 2025, he received the American Society of Transplantation’s Senior Achievement Award in Clinical Transplantation and was named an Ashbel Smith Distinguished Alumnus by the University of Texas Medical Branch, where he earned his medical degree.

Featured photo at top: Daniel Drake Medal. Photo/University of Cincinnati.

 

The once and future market for prostitution in Rhode Island

 Kim Krawiec, the great legal scholar of repugnant transactions, has written that rare (almost never seen) book review that extends the empirical study of an important, well-studied social science event, namely Rhode Island's experience of legal prostitution. It provides an illuminating followup to the germinal paper by Cunningham and Shah. (Prostitution in R.I. is one of the controversial markets covered in Moral Economics, and I believe Krawiec's book review is headed for a forthcoming symposium on the book in Œconomia ­­.)

The Smallest State's Big Experiment by Kimberly D. Krawiec
 October 09, 2026

Abstract
Rhode Island’s accidental decriminalization of prostitution in 1980 is typically told as the story of a legal change that went unnoticed for more than two decades. This review of Alvin Roth’s latest book, Moral Economics, challenges that standard account and explores its implications for Roth’s argument that markets need social support to flourish. Drawing on court records, contemporaneous news reports, arrest statistics, and legislative proceedings, I show that the statutory change was noticed almost immediately. Prostitution-related arrests continued, not because police and prosecutors were ignorantly arresting and charging sex workers and clients under a statute that no longer existed, but because the legal system adapted using tools – primarily the loitering prohibition that survived the 1980 rewrite – that have long been used to police behavior and individuals considered repugnant. After a 2003 judicial ruling closed an important enforcement avenue against indoor sex work and vaulted the market into the open, a coalition formed around trafficking concerns that eventually paved the way for recriminalization in 2009. Rhode Island’s accidental experiment with decriminalized sex work provided neither the deliberately designed regulatory framework nor the political backing that could build the type of social support that Roth insists (correctly, in my view) markets need to function well. 

Canada tweaks its Medical Aid in Dying law

 Canada has reversed its plan to expand access to medical aid in dying to people with only psychiatric illnesses, after a long controversy (now characterized as a  lack of "perfect consensus." But Canada has expanded access to allow those with progressive diseases to make advanced commitments, ahead of the day when they no longer may be capable of consent.

Canada Halts Plan to Allow Medically Assisted Death for the Mentally Ill.  People who have mental illness alone will not qualify for assisted death, but patients who have other conditions and expect to have a cognitive decline can make an advanced request.  By Vjosa Isai

"Canada will reverse its plan to allow people whose sole condition is a mental illness to seek medically assisted death, the government announced on Wednesday, abandoning a move to expand access to these patients.

“While there is not a perfect consensus on this issue, we believe this is the correct approach,” Sean Fraser, the minister of justice, told reporters on Parliament Hill.

"A law, introduced under the former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that allowed people with intolerable suffering from incurable mental health conditions to access a medically assisted death was initially poised to take effect in March 2023. Access for these patients was postponed for a year after public and some medical-community concerns that the existing system was not yet prepared to evaluate applications from these patients. In March 2024, the government delayed again, this time until March 2027, pending reviews by a panel of experts.

"With the clock ticking toward that deadline, Mr. Fraser said the government “very recently” formalized its stance and that Canadians can soon expect parliament to pass legislation that will indefinitely bar people whose sole medical condition is a mental disorder from seeking medically assisted death.

"The government is broadening the law to allow people with serious illnesses to make advance requests for medically assisted death if they anticipate their cognitive health will decline in a way that would prevent them from providing consent for the procedure in the future. This is already available to patients in the province of Quebec. The ability to make an advance request for assisted death has considerable public support."

Privacy, and menstrual tracking apps

Here's an interview with Harvard Professor Sarah Richardson about her recent article raising concerns about menstrual tracking apps. She has doubts both about whether they give useful advice, and about the low or absent guardrails on the data they generate.

Alarm over menstrual tracking apps
GenderSci Lab director warns of health, privacy risks in medical journal analysis by Clea Simon 

"According to GenderSci Lab director Sarah Richardson, Aramont Professor of the History of Science and professor of studies of women, gender, and sexuality, the apps can dangerously mislead women while also exposing them to commercial exploitation and legal concerns. 

...

"These apps are marketed as wellness and medical tools, but there are no protections on the data. Data is often sold, raising concerns for reproductive autonomy and privacy. Menstrual apps are unique compared to other kinds of digital trackers because they can expose reproductive and gender status.

"It is possible for there to be misuse of this data. This was deeply scrutinized after the Dobbs decision a couple of years ago with many scholars recommending that people not use these tracking apps, because there had been explicit threats made by regulators to try to access that data for use in criminal prosecution.

"Menstrual status can be used to give evidence of reproductive status. If the use of one of these apps exposed somebody as having been pregnant and then no longer being pregnant, for example, that could potentially be, in some jurisdictions, used either to discriminate against them or to implicate them criminally under laws that are meant to restrict abortion. "

 #####

Here's the article in the BMJ:

Digital menstrual tracking risks creating more harm than benefit
BMJ 2026; 394 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2026-100858 (Published 30 September 2026) by  Lee, Katharine MN, Marina DiMarco, Madeleine Pape, Meredith Reiches, Patricia Homan, Sheree Bekker, Margo Mountjoy, and Sarah S. Richardson. 

"Digital menstrual tracking apps claim to scientifically analyse individual data to provide guidance that will improve health, wellbeing, and performance based on estimated menstrual cycle phase. But neither digital menstrual tracking nor related practices of cycle syncing—that is, synchronising physical activity and nutrition to menstrual cycle phases—have been convincingly shown to improve health or other performance outcomes. Moreover, these practices raise serious concerns, given their risks of harm."