Sunday, February 4, 2024

How is immigration policy working on the US-Mexico border?

 Yesterday's post linked to a paper about immigration policy, and today let's look at a report on the results of existing policy:

After a Decade of Decline, the US Undocumented Population Increased by 650,000 in 2022  by Robert Warren, Journal on Migration and Human Security,  OnlineFirst

Executive Summary: This report describes estimates of the undocumented population residing in the United States in 2022 compiled by the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS). The estimates are based on data collected in the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the US Census Bureau (Ruggles et al. 2023). The report finds that the undocumented population grew from 10.3 million in 2021 to 10.9 million in 2022, an increase of 650,000. The increase reverses more than a decade of gradual decline. The undocumented populations from 10 countries increased by a total of 525,000: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and India; El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras in Central America; and Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in South America. The undocumented population in Florida increased by about 125,000 in 2022, Texas increased by 60,000, New York by 50,000, and Maryland by 45,000.

"Kerwin and Warren (2023) summarized the reasons why apprehensions by DHS do not translate directly into undocumented population growth: “[S]ome migrants are apprehended multiple times, some are trying to return to a permanent residence in the United States after a visit to their communities of origin, some are seasonal workers, and some are coming temporarily to visit family. None of these cases would add a new resident to the undocumented population . . .The fact that the Border Patrol prevents most attempted entries has not received wide media coverage. In 2017, DHS estimated that it interdicted 80 percent of attempted entries in the 2014 to 2016 period” (citation omitted).

"The numbers arriving illegally across the border and the numbers overstaying temporary visas each year are offset by the numbers leaving the undocumented population. From 2011 to 2021, an annual average of more than 500,000 left the undocumented population through voluntary emigration, removal by DHS, adjustment to legal status, or death (Warren 2023, Table 2)."

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