Gary Becker, who passed away in 2014, has a new paper, finished by his coauthors Julio Elias and Karen Ye. It recounts how the shortage of transplantable kidneys has only increased as the demand has grown, and the argument for paying donors is as strong as ever. (In the meantime, the obstacles to that approach haven't vanished.)
The shortage of kidneys for transplant: Altruism, exchanges, opt in vs. opt out, and the market for kidneys* by Gary S.Becker, Julio Jorge Elias, and Karen J.Ye, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Volume 202, October 2022, Pages 211-226 (Another link to the paper is here, temporarily.)
Abstract: "In 2007 we published a paper on organ transplants that used data from 1990–2005. We proposed a radical solution of paying individuals to donate kidneys, and claimed that this would clean out the waiting list for kidney transplants in a short period of time. In this paper, we revisit the topic, and examine 14 years of additional data to see if anything fundamental has changed. We show that the main altruistic based policies implemented, such as kidney exchanges or opt out systems for organ procurement, have been unable to solve the problem of shortages. Our analysis suggests that, because of the reaction of direct living donors to increases in other sources of donations, the supply curve of kidney transplants is highly inelastic to altruistic policies. In contrast, a market in organs would eliminate organ shortages and thereby eliminate thousands of needless deaths."
Here's the most relevant part of the first footnote:
*"We started working on this paper together with Gary Becker in 2011. In 2012, we presented the paper at the Law and Economics Workshop and the MacLean Center's Seminar Series of the University of Chicago. The paper was unfinished when Becker passed away in May 2014. In this version of the paper, we updated the data and made some additions. The paper preserves all the economic analysis that was developed in the last version that we collaborated with Becker.
"Becker wrote his first article about the organ shortage in 1997, as part of his monthly BusinessWeek Column. The article was entitled How Uncle Sam Could Ease the Organ Shortage. In the article, he “suggest(s) considering the purchase of organs only because other modifications to the present system so far have been grossly inadequate to end the shortage.”
"In the 2000s, Julio Elias collaborated with Becker in a paper that uses the economic approach to analyze the consequences of legalizing the purchase and sale of kidneys for transplants from both deceased and living donors. In 2014, Becker published with Julio Elias a column in the Saturday Essay section of the Wall Street Journal entitled Cash for Kidneys: The Case for a Market for Organs. For Becker, the problem of the organ shortage and finding ways to solve it was a lifelong project. This paper reflects some of his last thoughts on this problem."
Here are their conclusions:
"The current state of the market of kidney transplants is a disaster. Over the last years, the waiting list has grown in over 4000 individuals each year, while transplants have grown by only about 250 per year. The result has been longer and longer queues to receive organs. 4000 patients died each year while waiting 3 and a half years on average for a transplant. According to our estimations, the annual social cost of those who die while waiting for kidney transplants is over $7 billion.
"Neither kidney exchange programs nor opt out systems nor educational campaigns to increase donations from altruistic donors have solved the problem of shortages. The main reason for their mild effects, as we show in this paper, is that the altruistic supply curve of kidney transplants is highly inelastic to these type of policies because of the reaction of direct living donors to increases in other sources of donations.
"The only feasible way to eliminate the large queues in the market for kidney transplants is by significantly increasing the supply of kidneys. The introduction of monetary incentives could increase the supply of organs sufficiently to eliminate the large queues and thereby eliminate thousands of needless deaths, and it would do so without increasing the total cost of kidney transplant surgery by a large percent.
"A market for the purchase and selling of organs would appear strange at first. However, much as the voluntary military today has universal support, the selling of organs would come to be accepted over time. " advantages of accepting payment for organs would eventually become clear, and people will wonder why it took so long for such an ovious and sensible remedy to the organ shortage to be implemented.
***********
Some related earlier posts:
Another take on compensating donors:
Tuesday, August 16, 2022
Kim Krawiec interviews Frank McCormick on the kidney shortage (and how to end it)
Monday, June 27, 2022
A Forum on Kidneys for Sale in Iran, in Transplant International
Friday, February 17, 2017
All my posts on compensation for donors (not just kidney donors) are here.
And here's my 2007 paper on repugnance (that came out in the same issue of JEP as the Becker and Elias paper), and was a first attempt at understanding some of the obstacles that face proposals to compensate donors of kidneys (and other things):
- Roth, Alvin E. "Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21:3, Summer, 2007, pp. 37-58.
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