Saturday, March 19, 2022

Unraveling and reneging in the summer internship market

 There are some costs to unraveling of offer dates, and some of them are borne by the companies that make very early offers. The WSJ has the story:

Summer Interns Jilt Companies as Better Offers Come Along. Some young professionals in training are job-hopping between internships before they even start, frustrating companies and campus career advisers.  By Lindsay Ellis

"Many college students are juggling multiple summer internship offers as companies try to lock in entry-level talent. So fierce is this year’s competition, recruiters and career advisers said, that some students are reneging on summer stints they accepted back in the fall as recruiters barrage them with interview requests and richer offers. Companies and colleges say reneging is still rare, but it is becoming more pervasive in the current recruiting frenzy.

...

"Some 15% of students who had accepted a 2022 internship offer in November said they were still “actively searching” for another offer, according to a survey of more than 100 students by research and analytics company Veris Insights.

"Corporate recruiters, including at Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. and General Mills Inc. , said more students are backing out of internship offers this year. Liberty Mutual said it is reviewing pay benchmarks. Other employers and campus career offices said some companies have boosted intern pay for certain in-demand students. Still more employers are stepping up contact with students between the time they accept offers and when they start jobs to keep them engaged.

...

"Students used to feel sheepish about backing out of offers, but Elizabeth Diley, campus talent acquisition leader at General Mills, said she has observed less remorse. The cereal and food maker usually hires about 150 interns each year; now it plans to over-hire, betting that some percentage of interns will renege on offers before their summer jobs start, she said.

"Companies typically recruit summer interns early in the academic year to lock in potential talent. The problem this year with commitments made months ago is that the hot job market is generating lots of new offers that can lure students away."

Friday, March 18, 2022

David Schmeidler (1939-2022)

My old friend David Schmeidler has just passed away. 

We met very shortly after I got my Ph.D.in 1974 and moved to the University of Illinois, where he was a frequent visitor. He was already well known for his work on the nucleolus (a kind of cardinal centroid for games in characteristic function form with sidepayments, which is contained in the (ordinal) bargaining set). 

He was the very model of a modern major game theorist.  At the time we met, I remember being impressed by his breadth of interests, in connection e.g. with his paper with Elisha Pazner on fairness. I asked him how he viewed his work on fairness as connecting with his work on game theory, and as I recall he said something (briefly) to the effect that game theorists should be interested in all aspects of transactions.  I was impressed. (Decades later at dinner in our house in Boston, I told him that, and he replied "Later I decided that was all bullshit."  But I remained, and remain impressed.)

Here's a picture I took of him in 2014, speaking at a conference in Brazil organized by Marilda Sotomayor. 


David Schmeidler in Sao Paulo in 2014

He is probably best known today for his work on various models of non-expected utility theory. Here is David on Google Scholar.

 Here's a tribute to him published two years ago by Peter Wakker, who met him as a grad student in 1984, and recalls him as a man of few words, and big insights.

A Personal Tribute to David Schmeidler’s Influence by Peter P. Wakker Dans Revue économique 2020/2 (Vol. 71), pages 387 à 390

Some of his most important work is with Itzhak Gilboa, who speaks about their work here (video and transcript): Non-Bayesian Decision Theory

Itai Ashlagi recommends these of his papers:

Equilibrium points of nonatomic games,

The nucleolus of a characteristic function game

 Maxmin Expected Utility with a Non-Unique Prior,

Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity.  

*****

Update: Ali Kahn and Mark Machina write perceptive short memories here: https://saet.uiowa.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2022/03/Schmeidler-Consolidated-Copy.pdf 

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Who is a person?

 The question of who is a person (in law, and in welfare economics) is sometimes vexing. Arguments about abortion focus on the personhood of a fetus. The growing possibility of successful transplants of pig organs into humans might be viewed with less optimism if we thought of pigs as people (and transplants from great apes would probably be repugnant because apes are uncomfortably close to being human).  In economic theory we often speak of Pareto improvements as those that raise the welfare of "everyone," with the assumption that the model takes care of specifying the full set of people we are concerned with.  As we make progress in artificial intelligence, we may find ourselves asking about the personhood of machines.

In the meantime, here's a New Yorker story about a lawsuit brought on behalf of an elephant in the Bronx zoo:

The Elephant in the Courtroom. A curious legal crusade to redefine personhood is raising profound questions about the interdependence of the animal and human kingdoms.   By Lawrence Wright

"The subject of the petition was Happy, an Asian elephant in the Bronx Zoo. American law treats all animals as “things”—the same category as rocks or roller skates. However, if the Justice granted the habeas petition to move Happy from the zoo to a sanctuary, in the eyes of the law she would be a person. She would have rights.

"Humanity seems to be edging toward a radical new accommodation with the animal kingdom. In 2013, the government of India banned the capture and confinement of dolphins and orcas, because cetaceans have been proved to be sensitive and highly intelligent, and “should be seen as ‘non-human persons’ ” with “their own specific rights.” The governments of Hungary, Costa Rica, and Chile, among others, have issued similar restrictions, and Finland went so far as to draft a Declaration of Rights for cetaceans. In Argentina, a judge ruled that an orangutan at the Buenos Aires Eco-Park, named Sandra, was a “nonhuman person” and entitled to freedom—which, in practical terms, meant being sent to a sanctuary in Florida. The chief justice of the Islamabad High Court, in Pakistan, asserted that nonhuman animals have rights when he ordered the release of an elephant named Kaavan, along with other zoo animals, to sanctuaries; he even recommended the teaching of animal welfare in schools, as part of Islamic studies. In October, a U.S. court recognized a herd of hippopotamuses originally brought to Colombia by the drug lord Pablo Escobar as “interested persons” in a lawsuit that would prevent their extermination. The Parliament of the United Kingdom is currently weighing a bill, backed by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, that would consider the effect of government action on any sentient animal.

"Although the immediate question before Justice Tuitt was the future of a solitary elephant, the case raised the broader question of whether animals represent the latest frontier in the expansion of rights in America—a progression marked by the end of slavery and by the adoption of women’s suffrage and gay marriage. 

...

"Having lost the chimpanzee cases in New York, Wise and his team armed themselves with dozens of friend-of-the-court briefs in support of personhood for Happy. One of them came from Laurence Tribe, the Harvard legal scholar. “It cannot pass notice that African Americans who had been enslaved famously used the common law writ of habeas corpus in New York to challenge their bondage and to proclaim their humanity, even when the law otherwise treated them as mere things,” Tribe wrote. “Women in England were once considered the property of their husbands and had no legal recourse against abuse until the Court of King’s Bench began in the 17th century to permit women and their children to utilize habeas corpus to escape abusive men. Indeed, the overdue transition from thinghood to personhood through the legal vehicle of habeas corpus must be deemed among the proudest elements of the heritage of that great writ of liberation.”

"A precedent that Wise particularly favors is a 1772 case in England concerning James Somerset, a Black man enslaved to Charles Stewart, a customs officer in Boston. When Stewart brought him to England, Somerset briefly escaped, and upon his recapture Stewart had him imprisoned on a ship bound for Jamaica, where he was to be sold on the slave market. English supporters of Somerset filed for a writ of habeas corpus to gain his freedom. The case came before Lord Mansfield, a consequential figure in the British legal tradition. Although slavery had not been legally endorsed in Britain, an estimated fifteen thousand enslaved people lived there, and hundreds of thousands lived in British territories. Recognizing Somerset as a legal person would not just liberate a single individual but set a precedent that could be financially ruinous for slaveholders. Mansfield declared, “Let justice be done, though the heavens may fall.” He ruled that slavery was “so odious” that common law could not support it.

“That was the beginning of the end of slavery, first in England, then at least in the northern part of the U.S.,” Wise said in Tuitt’s court.

“Did they actually say the person who was enslaved was a person?” the Justice asked.

“No, they said he was free, he had rights,” Wise responded. “A person is an entity who has the capacity for rights, any entity who has a right was automatically a person.”

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Plasma donations at the border

Here's a WSJ story about the confluence of two controversial transactions, immigration and compensation for plasma donors.

Block on Blood-Plasma Donors From Mexico Threatens Supplies. U.S. officials say crossing border to donate for a fee isn’t allowed with a visitor visa  By Mike Cherney,  Renée Onque and Daniela Hernandez

"Pharmaceutical companies and U.S. officials are fighting over whether to allow people to cross the border from Mexico to be paid for giving blood plasma, a critical ingredient in treatments for some neurological and autoimmune diseases.

"Up to 10% of plasma collected in the U.S. usually comes from Mexican nationals who enter on visitor visas and are paid about $50 to donate, according to legal filings from pharmaceutical companies. Last June, U.S. border officials indicated they would stop the roughly 30-year practice because they viewed it as labor for hire, which isn’t allowed under a visitor visa.

"The pharmaceutical companies that collect plasma have asked federal courts in Washington, D.C., to overturn the decision, which came just as U.S. plasma donations were disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Some companies have argued that the payment compensates donors for their time and commitment rather than for the plasma itself, and isn’t in exchange for any actual work.

...

"The U.S., which provides much of the global plasma supply, is one of the few countries that allows payments to plasma donors, and supporters of the policy say that helps to ensure enough plasma is collected. Two big plasma companies, Australia-based CSL Ltd. and Spain-based Grifols SA, have invested millions of dollars in collection centers near the U.S.-Mexican border.

...

"A spokesperson for U.S. Customs and Border Protection declined to discuss the litigation.

...

"The agency said pharmaceutical companies could increase payments to attract more domestic supply and that Mexicans could still donate plasma without getting paid."

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Opioid prescription reductions and suicides

 Addictive drugs are repugnant, but painkillers are essential pharmaceuticals.  In an effort to reduce addiction, guidelines have been formulated that reduce prescription, and these sometimes backfire when applied to patients with unbearable pain.

The NY Times has the story:

What the Opioid Crisis Took From People in Pain  By Maia Szalavitz

"Though even some doctors are confused on this issue, addiction and physical dependence are not the same thing. Addiction, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, is compulsive drug seeking and use that occurs despite negative consequences. But pain patients like Mr. Slone are not considered addicted when medication improves their quality of life and the risks of side effects like withdrawal are outweighed by the relief medication offers.

"For people with chronic pain, research is only beginning to show how widespread the damage from opioid prescription cuts is. One study examined the medical records of nearly 15,000 Medicaid patients in Oregon who were taking long-term, high doses of opioids. Those whose medications were stopped were three and a half to four and a half times as likely to die by suicide compared to those whose doses were stable or increased. Another study, which included the medical records of over 100,000 people, found that drastically reducing a patient’s opioid dosage increased the risk of overdose by 28 percent and increased the risk of mental health crisis requiring hospitalization by 78 percent.

"Many opioid prescribing cuts were made under the auspices of guidelines published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2016 to fight the overdose crisis. These guidelines recommend avoiding opioid prescriptions if at all possible and, when prescribing them for chronic pain, generally keeping the dosage below 90 morphine milligram equivalents, or M.M.E., per day 

...

"The C.D.C. is now updating those recommendations, admitting that the result has too often been unsafe changes in care.

...

"By 2019, the authors of the original guidelines warned in The New England Journal of Medicine that they were being misused, saying, “Unfortunately, some policies and practices purportedly derived from the guideline have in fact been inconsistent with, and often go beyond, its recommendations.” That year, the Food and Drug Administration cautioned that it had “received reports of serious harm,” including suicides, associated with patients who suddenly had their medication discontinued or abruptly reduced.

"But by then, states had passed legislation giving some of the recommendations the force of law. The National Committee for Quality Assurance, which provides standards for insurers, government agencies and medical organizations, made keeping doses within the guidelines into a metric — incentivizing doctors to taper or stop seeing high-dose patients. Insurers, pharmacy chains and government agencies also use the guidelines to inform restrictions, and law enforcement uses them when prosecuting physicians for running “pill mills.”

"If these policies had reduced the death toll, some might argue that they are warranted. But they have not. Measured by the number of prescriptions written per capita, medical opioid use rates in 2020 were down to levels last seen in 1993, before OxyContin marketing helped spark the crisis. However, overdose deaths are still increasing dramatically, driven by illegally manufactured synthetic opioids and many who formerly got pharmaceuticals from doctors and now resort to dealers."

Monday, March 14, 2022

Subscription as an advanced market commitment for new antibiotics

 Axel Ockenfels points me to the following discussion of a subscription model for antibiotics: governments would guarantee that they would "subscribe" to new antibiotics, providing payments even though the volume of prescribed doses might be small to prevent bacteria from adapting to it [see this earlier post on  The economics of antibiotics]

This is how to fight antibiotic-resistant superbugs with a simple subscription payment model  by Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust and Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, Chief Executive Officer, Novo Nordisk Foundation

"A subscription model based on fixed annual payments in return for a sufficient antimicrobial product supply guarantee, de-linked from the volumes sold would offer manufacturers security and financial predictability."

"A few weeks ago, the Lancet published an analysis which concluded that global mortality associated with antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been greatly underestimated, and that with 3,500 daily deaths being directly related to AMR, it is one of the leading threats to human health worldwide. The analysis covers more than 200 countries and is the most comprehensive study on the consequences of antimicrobial resistance to date." [see earlier post]

...

"Decades of antibiotic overuse and misuse, in people and in animals, has caused the emergence of “superbugs”, strains of bacteria resistant to existing medicine, leaving the world vulnerable and decades of medical progress being undermined.

"At the same time, the world has not seen the introduction of truly novel antibiotics for many years. Regrettably, an unsustainable innovation and payer ecosystem has caused the pipeline of drugs with new targets or mechanisms of action to dry up.

...

"Wellcome Trust and the Novo Nordisk Foundation have both been doing what we can to support vital antibiotic innovation, through our investments in CARB-X, the REPAIR Fund, and the AMR Action Fund. But while our investments have done much to shore up the early-stage pipeline, we now need governments to do their part and ensure that antibiotics can reach global markets – available, accessible, and affordable. With this in mind, we recently commissioned Boston Consulting Group and the World Economic Forum to produce a report with recommendations on how to address these remaining gaps in support for antibiotic R&D. The report provides a roadmap for global leaders to study and adopt.

...

"The resulting recommendation is to apply a subscription payment model as the way forward. Such a payment scheme is already being piloted in the UK and Sweden. The subscription model is based on fixed annual payments for a set period, in return for a sufficient antimicrobial product supply guarantee, and, crucially, de-linked from the volumes sold. Recently, this has been dubbed the ‘Netflix model of antibiotics’ or compared to safeguarding properties by investing in fire extinguishers, hoping that there will never be a need for them.

"The idea is not new, and political leaders have time and again made warm commitments to act to support antibiotic development. But now is the time to turn these into solid action and bring fresh political goodwill to get them implemented. In the US, the world’s largest pharmaceuticals market by some margin, legislators are currently considering such a subscription model. With the support of both political sides, the so-called PASTEUR ACT (The Pioneering Antimicrobial Subscriptions To End Up Surging Resistance) bill has been drawn up, precisely with the aim of creating more attractive conditions for the development of new antibiotics.

"The subscription model is advantageous compared to the current alternatives, as it offers manufacturers security in terms of their revenues as well as certainty in terms of the demand.



Sunday, March 13, 2022

Nondirected living liver donation in the U.S.

Nondirected kidney donation has been important in U.S. kidney transplants for some time.  Here's a report observing that nondirected living liver donation is picking up.

 Herbst, Leyla R. BA1; Herrick-Reynolds, Kayleigh MD1,2; Bowles Zeiser, Laura ScM1; López, Julia I. BA1; Kernodle, Amber MD, MPH1; Asamoah-Mensah, Awura1; Purnell, Tanjala MPH, PhD2; Segev, Dorry L. MD, PhD1,3,4; Massie, Allan B. PhD, MHS1,3; King, Elizabeth MD, PhD1; Garonzik-Wang, Jacqueline MD, PhD1; Cameron, Andrew M. MD, PhD1 The Landscape of Nondirected Living Liver Donation in the United States, Transplantation: March 2, 2022 - doi: 10.1097/TP.0000000000004065 

"Living donor liver transplants (LDLTs) including those from nondirected donors (NDDs) have increased during the past decade

...

"NDDs increased from 1 (0.4% of LDLTs) in 2002 to 58 (12% of LDLTs) in 2020. Of 150 transplant centers, 35 performed at least 1 NDD transplant.

...

"Liver NDD transplants continue to expand but remain concentrated at a few centers. Graft distribution favors female adults and pediatric patients with biliary atresia. Racial inequities in adult or pediatric center-level NDD graft distribution were not observed."

Saturday, March 12, 2022

Summer School for Computational and Experimental Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, June 12-19, 2022

 Here's the announcement (more at the links):

Summer School for Computational and Experimental Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain, June 12-19, 2022

Graduate students and young faculty interested in computational and experimental economics are invited to attend this intensive 7-day summer school (which will include the two-day Workshop on Computational and Experimental Economics on June 13-14, 2022).

The summer school will be held from June 12 to June 19 at Beslab of Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Spain. The summer school includes the two-day Workshop on Computational and Experimental Economics on June 13-14, 2022.

The deadline for applications is April 15, 2022.

Organizers

Guest lecturer

Conference on Economic Design, University of Padova, 9-11 June 2022

 Conference on Economic Design, University of Padova,    9-11 June 2022

Paper Submission Deadline: 15 March 2022

"The 12th Conference on Economic Design will be held  in person at the Departement of Economics and Management  of the  University of Padova in Italy on 9-11 June 2022. The conference  welcomes paper submissions from many different fields such as economics, political science, computer science and operation research. Subjects include but are not limited to auctions, matching, voting, social choice,  coalition formation, price formation, contest, fair division, contract, bargaining, negotiation, market design implementation, market design experiments, public goods experiments, behavioural mechanism design, health policy, robust mechanism design, matching in dynamic environments, etc. 


Keynote speakers: Oliver Tercieux, Vasiliki Skreta, Scott Duke Kominers.

K

Friday, March 11, 2022

Kidney transplant controversies on World Kidney Day

 Yesterday, March 10 was World Kidney Day, whose theme was "Kidney health for all."

I couldn't help noticing that reports in honor of WKD reflect some of the considerable controversy that exists about kidney transplants.

Here are two with opposite points of view on increasing access to kidney transplants, with special attention to kidney exchange.

First, from Abu Dhabi:

World Kidney Day: SEHA Kidney Care leads the way in ensuring kidney health for all

"A key area that SKC is spearheading is investing in opportunities to increase transplant activities, for patients locally and further afield.  SEHA’s recent collaborations with international organizations and the Department of Health – Abu Dhabi have ensured that it is prepared for an influx in transplant volumes, with an increased deceased donor activity from 3 donors in 2017 to 39 donors in 2021, and more opportunities for live donation with the start of a paired kidney exchange program in partnership with Alliance for Paired Kidney Donation. Through these partnerships, kidney transplants, often resulting in enhanced quality of life, are now a viable option for many patients here in the UAE. SEHA’s Transplant Program has performed more than 52 pediatric kidney transplants and almost 393 transplants in total since its inception.

***************

And here, from the Pakistani newspaper Dawn, is an editorial that bemoans the prevalence of black market kidney transplants in Pakistan, and worries that increasing access to  kidney exchange will only increase the black market (as opposed to giving patients a safe and legal alternative to the black market). This is an opinion that seems to underlie the policies of a number of international transplant organizations.

Swap Transplants

"IRONICALLY, the Punjab government’s recent step in the effort to stop organ trafficking may well end up providing a shot in the arm to the illegal transplant racket. At a meeting chaired by the Punjab health minister, the provincial government has given its approval to a swap transplant plan which expands the living donor pool beyond immediate family members.

...

"Organ swap transplants, or paired exchanges, work by matching a recipient-donor pair that is medically incompatible, with another pair in a similar predicament. An organ ‘swap’ can then take place between the two pairs. However, these are only the bare bones of the procedure. It must be carried out according to strict ethical and clinical guidelines if it is not to open the floodgates for illegal transplants. Among these is the requirement that each recipient-donor pair must meet the eligibility criteria laid out in the law.

...

"Thus, while paired exchanges are an accepted method of addressing donor-recipient incompatibility, the level of oversight mechanisms needed to prevent abuse are daunting — even more so in an unequal society riddled with corruption. The first paired kidney exchange in Pakistan was performed in 2015 at the Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation in Karachi; only seven more have taken place since then — all at SIUT — partly because of the extreme diligence that the process calls for. The troubling fact is that most illegal transplants take place in Punjab; some were found to have been carried out surreptitiously in KP and Azad Kashmir by doctors from Punjab. The situation in recent years had improved considerably after several organ trafficking gangs were busted, again mostly in Punjab. Does the province have a system in place to ensure that unethical individuals do not use the organ swap programme as a cover for illegal transplants?"

**************

And here's a recent BBC video, "Kidneys for Sale?" on the controversy about compensation for donors. I just saw it yesterday (HT David Klinowski) but was produced earlier this year. A number of people are interviewed, and Sally Satel makes the point that increasing access to legal, safe kidney transplants is a way of competing with and reducing the prevalence of black markets.


Thursday, March 10, 2022

David Bennet Sr., who lived for two months with a transplanted pig heart, RIP

 Xenotransplants from pigs are probably here to stay, but are also not quite here yet, and may not be for some time.

Yesterday's NY Times has the story:

Patient in Groundbreaking Heart Transplant Dies. David Bennett Sr. had received a heart from a genetically modified pig, a procedure that may yet offer hope to millions of Americans needing transplants.  By Roni Caryn Rabin, March 9, 2022

"The first person to have his failing heart replaced with that of a genetically altered pig in a groundbreaking operation died Tuesday afternoon at the University of Maryland Medical Center, two months after the transplant surgery.

...

"Mr. Bennett’s transplant was initially deemed successful. It is still considered a significant step forward, because the pig’s heart was not immediately rejected and continued to function for well over a month, passing a critical milestone for transplant patients.

**********

The Times story also made mention of the complicated discussion about organ donation, in this case having to do with the recipient's checkered history, as discussed in this earlier story from the Washington Post:

The ethics of a second chance: Pig heart transplant recipient stabbed a man seven times years ago By Lizzie Johnson and William Wan, January 13, 2022

**********

And while we're thinking of ethical objections, don't forget the pig, or the gene manipulation involved in raising a suitable pig. Here's a rundown from the BBC:

Three ethical issues around pig heart transplants By Jack Hunter, 11 January, 2022

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Singapore court rules that only Parliament can approve gay sex

 The NY Times has the story, about a colonial era Singapore law that isn't presently leading to prosecutions, but remains on the books:

Singapore’s Latest Ruling on Gay Sex Is ‘Cold Comfort,’ Activists Say. Plaintiffs had hoped the Court of Appeal would overturn the colonial-era law. Instead, the top court said it was not “an architect of social policy” and that any change was up to Parliament.  By Richard C. Paddock

"The Singapore Court of Appeal, the country’s top court, declined Monday to overturn a law criminalizing gay sex, ruling that three men who brought challenges did not have legal standing because the government has pledged not to enforce the colonial-era law.

"Gay rights advocates had sought to overturn the law, known as Section 377A, arguing that it stigmatizes gay men and promotes discrimination. The law, enacted in 1938 during British rule, does not apply to women."

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

School Choice by Atila Abdulkadiroglu & Tommy Andersson

Here's a big new survey on school choice theory and practice:

School Choice  by Atila Abdulkadiroglu & Tommy Andersson, NBER working paper 29822

DOI 10.3386/w29822 ISSUE DATE March 2022 (forthcoming in the Handbook of the Economics of Education vol. 6).

Abstract: School districts in the US and around the world are increasingly moving away from traditional neighborhood school assignment, in which pupils attend closest schools to their homes. Instead, they allow families to choose from schools within district boundaries. This creates a market with parental demand over publicly-supplied school seats. More frequently than ever, this market for school seats is cleared via market design solutions grounded in recent advances in matching and mechanism design theory. The literature on school choice is reviewed with emphasis placed on the trade-offs among policy objectives and best practices in the design of admissions processes. It is concluded with a brief discussion about how data generated by assignment algorithms can be used to answer contemporary empirical questions about school effectiveness and policy interventions.

Some paragraphs from the conclusions:

"Parental choice over public schools has become a major part of education reform around the world. In the US alone, the proportion of the largest 100 schools districts with parental choice over public schools doubled between 2000 and 2016 (Whitehurst, 2017). Currently, parents in Belgium, England, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Wales, and Northern Ireland have the right to or must choose a public or a private school at the primary, lower and upper secondary levels for their children. In fact, for the upper secondary level, only six European countries (Denmark, Greece, France, Cyprus, Malta and Turkey) do not have any type of school choice program and, instead, assign students to schools based on their place of residence (European Commission, 2020). Consequently, the demand for rigorous solutions for student assignment has been growing. Each school-choice program comes with its own institutional and political constraints, which opens the door for further research. In fact, most of the theoretical literature on school choice is motivated by real-life problems identified in the field.

...

"This chapter has focused on student assignment in school choice by taking preferences and priorities as exogenous. An equally important question concerns the welfare consequences of school choice. In particular, the models in the literature ignore probably one of the most important aspects of school choice: access to a school is determined not only by the ability to list the school in the application form, but also by admissions policies, such as neighborhood priority, and by means for traveling to the school. This makes both preferences and priorities endogenous. While wealthy families can choose affluent neighborhoods with good schools before going through the formal choice process, low income families are shut out of such residential choice. The matching models of school choice regularly ignore housing markets, families’ endogenous housing decisions and their impact on welfare. Recent advances in this direction have been made by studying school choice with competitive housing markets and a continuum of students. For example, in a fairly general model, Grigoryan (2021) offers a convincing theoretical argument in favor of school choice by showing that low income families are better-off under deferred acceptance in comparison to solely residence-based school assignment even when applicants are granted neighborhood priorities in deferred acceptance. Much work is still to be done both theoretically and empirically on that frontier.

...

" data generated by assignment algorithms can be used to answer most pressing empirical questions on school effectiveness and policy interventions.29 Seats in a school choice program are rationed by admissions priorities, such as neighborhood priority for pupils living within a certain distance from school, lotteries, student rankings at the school which may be based on an entrance examination, academic records, interviews and other criteria. Such rationing creates quasi-experimental variation in school assignment at unprecedented levels that can be used for credible evaluation of individual schools and of school reform models, such as charters, small schools, and voucher programs. A recent literature focuses on research design with data from centralized admissions and develops econometric techniques."



Monday, March 7, 2022

Sex Work: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

Laughing through the tears about the plight of sex workers, and the complicated and often ridiculous legal environment. (He notes that there are no Hallmark cards with which a sex worker can thank her arresting officer.)

 

Sunday, March 6, 2022

Kidneys on Kilimanjaro

 The Washington Post has the story

A group of organ donors is climbing Mount Kilimanjaro this week. They each have one kidney.  By Cathy Free

"“We thought, ‘How about if we use this climb to raise awareness and show everyone that you can still lead a healthy and active life if you donate a kidney?’ ” said McLaughlin, a former college soccer coach who lives in Seattle.

“It didn’t take long before we had 22 kidney donors signed up to make the trip,” he said.

"The group hopes the trek, which will begin Friday, will help dispel the notion that donors can’t live full lives with one kidney, said Kidney Donor Athletes founder Tracey Hulick, who donated a kidney to a stranger in May 2017.

...

"The group — which named its adventure the One Kidney Climb — hopes to reach Kilimanjaro’s 19,341-foot volcanic summit at sunrise on March 10, World Kidney Day."

Saturday, March 5, 2022

Antibiotic discovery and development (from caves, to clinical trials to clinics)

 The development of antibiotics is in the hands of big pharmaceutical companies, which can manage and afford large scale clinical trials of new candidates.

But antibiotics don't have to be discovered in the biochemistry lab. Nature is red in tooth and claw at the microscopic level as well as for larger living beings, and everyone out there has to fight off bacteria. So there are lots of natural anti-bacterial chemicals yet to be discovered (just as penicillin derives from a mold). And so spelunking naturalists have opportunities to find new micro-organisms with their own anti-microbial defenses. But then the particularly difficult economics of antibiotic development come into play.

Here's an old story about that from Popular Science:

Scientists are spelunking for cave gunk to fight superbugs. Deep in caverns around the world, bacteria are laboring to make antibiotics we can discover and use for ourselves. BY KATE BAGGALEY

“You start out with 10,000 candidate chemicals, and 12 years and a billion dollars later you might have one,” Lavoie says. “But you’ve got to have a place to start, so the more you find the better off you are.”

***********

Here's a recent article exploring some of Medicare's opportunities to provide advance market commitments to pharma companies developing antibiotics.

Gandhi N, Schulman KA. New Medicare Technology Add-On Payment Could Be Used As A Market Support Mechanism To Accelerate Antibiotic Innovation. Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 Dec;40(12):1926-1934. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00062. PMID: 34871069.

Abstract: Despite growing antibiotic resistance, the clinical drug development pipeline for antibiotics has been sparse largely because of an unsustainable business model. We illustrate three models to accelerate antibiotic development, using Medicare new technology add-on payments as a market support mechanism. The first two models subsidize drug development for Medicare beneficiaries, and the third model applies a payment for every patient with a resistant infection to essentially create a funding pool. We found that the reimbursement required to sustain research and development would range from $637 to $121,365, depending on the payment model and the incidence of the resistant infection in question. With a $300 million public research subsidy, the payment for an antibiotic would drop to between $273 and $10,396 per course. Our market support model could increase the likelihood of attracting private investment for antibiotic development

"To make the economics of the antibiotic market even more challenging, intravenous antibiotics are reimbursed as part of a fixed Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Group (MS-DRG) payment under the inpatient prospective payment system of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). This model of a fixed payment per patient directly incentivizes hospitals to prescribe older, lower-cost antibiotics over more expensive novel therapies.9 This situation for antibiotic therapies is in stark contrast to the oncology market, where hospitals earn a margin above the list price of outpatient oncology drugs.10 The oncology model accelerates the adoption of novel products, which suggests that manufacturers do respond to financial incentives in the market.

...

"A market support mechanism that is receiving increasing attention is applying existing CMS authority for new technology add-on payments (NTAP) to hospital payment for novel antibiotics and antifungal therapies. Under the NTAP model, hospitals receive a separate payment for administration of designated therapies in addition to the underlying MS-DRG payment. This program was developed to support payment for expensive new medical devices and is intended to be time limited while CMS recalculates the underlying MS-DRG payment to include the cost of the new technology. This technology carve-out model has existed since at least 2001, but new eligibility criteria may make it easier for antibiotics to qualify for it.

...

"In this article we assess the opportunity to evolve the NTAP program into a true market support mechanism (NTAP-MS), assessing how different payment models that build on the NTAP-MS approach affect incentives for antibiotic development."

Friday, March 4, 2022

Penn celebrates Judd Kessler (with an endowed chair)

 Here's the announcement:

 Judd B. Kessler: Howard Marks Endowed Associate Professor

"Judd B. Kessler has been named the inaugural Howard Marks Associate Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The associate professorship, which has been funded by Howard S. Marks, W’67, is dedicated to Wharton faculty in the field of behavioral economics and behavioral investing.

"Dr. Kessler, a faculty member in Wharton’s business economics and public policy department, joined the school in 2011. His research uses a combination of laboratory and field experiments to answer questions in public economics, behavioral economics, and market design. Dr. Kessler investigates the economic and psychological forces that motivate individuals to contribute to the public good, with applications including organ donation, worker effort, and charitable giving. He was awarded the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize in 2021, and his research has appeared in journals including the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and Management Science.

“As a scholar and specialist in experimental economics and market design innovation, Judd embodies Wharton’s commitment to preparing the next generation of great business leaders with the tools to translate theory into practice and drive meaningful change,” said Wharton School Dean Erika James."

Thursday, March 3, 2022

Matt Jackson wins the BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Economics

 The BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in Economics, Finance and Management has gone in this fourteenth edition to Matthew O. Jackson “for his pioneering work on illuminating the role of networks in economic and social life.”

2 March, 2022

"Jackson, a Professor of Economics at Stanford University, “recognized the importance of networks for economics over 25 years ago,” says the award citation, in a theoretical paper that showed “how to predict which networks will form depending on the costs and benefits of forming links, and how these networks differ from the optimal ones.” His work, it continues, “has inspired an enormous literature, both theoretical and empirical, in which networks play an essential role in helping us understand financial markets, economic development, and a host of other economic phenomena.”

"In 1996, Matthew Jackson and Asher Wolinsky published “A Strategic Model of Social and Economic Networks,” in the Journal of Economic Theory, a paper regarded today as the launch pad for all subsequent literature on the social network approach or theory in economic analysis. In it, the authors define a network as a set of agents (people, but also firms, institutions and markets) connected by links, and modelled the characteristics such networks must exhibit in order to be efficient, to the extent that their component agents are satisfied and the network remains stable.

“Most of our interactions a human beings are social,” explained the new laureate in an interview shortly after hearing of the award. “We depend on other people for information, connections, opportunities, and also for norms of behavior. So the networks we are embedded in become very important determinants of our behavior and outcomes. In that first paper we tried to build the most basic model we could imagine about how people form relationships, whether they be business contacts, friendships, alliances or of any other sort.”


Here's a 13 minute video that starts with an announcement of the prize (by Eric Maskin). An interview with Matt begins around minute 4.

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field By Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth

 Mechanisms designed to elicit truthful reporting in the laboratory sometimes are cumbersome to administer and difficult to explain.  Here's a paper that finds that simple attempts to incentivize truthful reporting (including allowing other participants to hear each report, as well as small payments for reports that conform to community consensus) can help eliminate incentives to boost family and friends, when reports concern who could make most effective use of a cash grant.

Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field By Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth   American Economic Review 2022, 112(3): 861–898   https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20200751

Abstract: "Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the average marginal return to capital in our sample is 9.4 percent per month, microentrepreneurs reported in the top third of the community are estimated to have marginal returns to capital between 24 percent and 30 percent per month. Further we find evidence that community members distort their predictions when they can influence the distribution of resources. Finally, we demonstrate that simple mechanisms can realign incentives for truthful reporting."

"Not everyone has what it takes to be a successful entrepreneur. Numerous experimental studies of microentrepreneurs in the developing world find widely heterogeneous returns to cash and credit.1  Yet governments, lenders, and nongovernmental organizations often lack hard information with which to target resources to high-growth entrepreneurs.

...

"In this paper we argue that harnessing community information directly from a microentrepreneur’s peers may provide a viable approach to identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs.

"Our argument has three parts. First, we demonstrate that entrepreneurs in peri-urban Maharashtra have high quality information about one another along a variety of dimensions including marginal returns to capital. Their information is valuable for identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs even after controlling for a wide range of demographic and business characteristics. Second we demonstrate that entrepreneurs manipulate their reports to favor themselves, their friends, and their family when the distribution of resources is at stake. Finally we identify several simple techniques motivated by mechanism design that effectively realign incentives for accuracy.

...

"Our first main finding is that community members can identify high-return entrepreneurs. While the average marginal return to the grant was about 9.4 percent per month, our point estimates of the marginal returns to capital of entrepreneurs ranked in the top third range from 24 percent to 30 percent. Had we distributed our grants using community reports instead of random assignment, we would have roughly tripled the total return on our investment.

...

"Our second main finding is that strategic misreporting is a first-order concern when eliciting community information. By random assignment, half of respondents were told that their reports would be used only for research purposes (the “no stakes” treatment) and the other half were told that their reports would be used to allocate US$100 grants to members of their community (the “high stakes” treatment). The correlation between community reports and true outcomes is on average 27 percent to 35 percent lower when allocation of resources is at stake, which significantly lowers the value of peer elicitation.

...

"Our third main finding is that methods grounded in mechanism design theory can be used to design a peer-elicitation environment in which truth telling is incentive compatible. Monetary payments and public reporting do little to improve the accuracy of self-reports. But payments substantially increase the predictive power of reports that entrepreneurs make about other group members. We provide direct evidence that monetary payments reduce the likelihood that respondents favor their family members or their close friends. Finally, we find that public reporting increases the predictive accuracy of reports about others when there are no stakes, but has no effect in a high stakes setting. This nuanced finding may reflect a heterogeneous treatment effect, or a noisily estimated impact of observability on the quality of reports."