Course allocation at Eötvös Loránd University, by Attila Rusznák, Péter Biró, and Rita Fleiner)

At Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary, there's a course allocation system that gives rise to intense course exchange after its official conclusion (some of which may be planned in advance). Here's a description and analysis:

Seat transfers in the course allocation mechanism of Eötvös Loránd University  by A. Rusznák, P. Biró and R. Fleiner, 2021 IEEE 15th International Symposium on Applied Computational Intelligence and Informatics (SACI), 2021, pp. 503-508, doi: 10.1109/SACI51354.2021.9465548.

"Abstract: We initiate the study of the course allocation mechanism of the largest Hungarian university, ELTE, based on a real data provided for three semesters in 2018-2019. Besides introducing their priority based mechanism and the structure of their course registration data provided, we analyse a special issue coming from a students’ survey related to seat transfer. We identify the seat transfer actions in the last stage of the mechanism from the data that we describe in a transfer graph, and we analyse this network observing interesting patterns."

"In Hungary the course allocations are conducted at every major university by the same administrative system, called Neptun, and most universities use a simple first-come-first-served method. However, the largest university in Hungary, ELTE, uses a three-phase priority-based method [12]. In the first phase the students can submit their most preferred bundles, and the university admission may adjust the quotas of the courses based on these initial inputs. The second phase is the most important, where the students are ranked at each course based on a scoring system and lottery for breaking ties. They have a week to select their best bundles, but the mechanism is dynamic, the students can be unsure whether they will really get admission to a course. After finalising the assignment based on priorities and quotas, in the third phase of the mechanism a simple first-come-first-served method is used to allocate the remaining open slots. This final round also facilitates the informal seat transfers and swaps, a topic that we focus on in this paper. We conducted an online survey at ELTE sent to all registered students, and we received more than 3000 replies in total, so we could identify the main practices and issues for this priority based mechanism. We also received the complete course allocation record from their Neptun system for three recent semesters in 2018-2019. We will use this rich data to check the issues and strategies reported in the students’ survey, starting with the analysis of the seat transfers and swaps in the last stage of the mechanism.

...

"One of most critical comments was concerned with the rejection of the students even from their main courses that fits in their ideal curriculum. Some students mentioned that they could only get admission to some of their important courses by getting a favour from another student, who had higher priority at that course, so could take it in the second stage, and then transfer the course to them in the third stage. The transfer can be observed in the data as the withdrawal of a student and an almost immediate registration by another student. In this paper we initiate the study of this issue by studying the course allocation record of ELTE for the years of 2018-2019, that we describe in the next section."

Some history of the National Resident Matching Program

 Here's a short history of the resident match, including the recent merger of MD and DO student applicants, and some thoughts about current issues.

Acad Med. 2021 Aug; 96(8): 1116–1119.

The Single Match: Reflections on the National Resident Matching Program’s Sustained Partnership With Learners  by Zaid I. Almarzooq, MBBCh, Heather A Lillemoe, MD, Ebony White-Manigault, MPH, Thomas Wickham, DO, MPH, and Laurie S. Curtin, PhD

Here's the concluding paragraph:

"The NRMP has come a long way, but we recognize that the residency selection process still is fraught with stress and uncertainty, albeit for reasons different from those that prompted creation of the Match. Application inflation, debt, and a disproportionate reliance on licensure exam scores have contributed to a climate that makes the transition to residency perhaps as stressful as when the Match was created nearly 70 years ago. 18,19 However, as the NRMP moves beyond achievement of the Single Match milestone and we reflect on the organization’s history of responding to the needs of its constituents, we believe the NRMP will continue to evolve and identify innovative and meaningful ways to address learner needs. We hope learners of all kinds value that commitment and stand ready to support the NRMP’s efforts to continually improve the transition to residency."

Coffee and civilization, at the Museum of Islamic Art in Jerusalem

“Coffee – East and West” is the title of the new exhibition at the Museum of Islamic Art in Jerusalem." Here's the story from Haaretz:

How Coffee Revolutionized Jerusalem Social Life in the 16th Century  by Ronit Vered

"In the mid-16th century, complaints from residents of Jerusalem reached the palace of the sultan in Istanbul: As a result of the new custom of visiting coffeehouses, which was spreading among the city’s Muslim denizens, many of them were not praying five times a day, as prescribed by Islam.

...

"Those first cafés – others were opened around the same time in Gaza, Ramle, Nablus, Damascus and Aleppo – operated all day and all night, a sensational innovation in the pre-electricity age, when people usually went to bed early.

...

"The presence of the clients, some of whom would be seated in the street, attracted peddlers, who offered skewers of roasted meat, another nuisance and source of dirt. Tobacco was another new pleasure that the authorities and clerics tried to fight – again unsuccessfully – and the smoke of water pipes, sometimes mingled with the aroma of opium, became an inseparable part of the new coffeehouse experience. And because all the clients of these new institutions were men, for whom the public space, both religious and secular, was exclusively reserved in the Ottoman Empire – the coffeehouses were also accused of encouraging homosexuality and of generating an atmosphere liable to give rise to sexual harassment.

...

"“The story of this country is singular, because two coffee traditions coexisted here over time: Ottoman-Turkish-Arabian coffee that is cooked; and Western coffee, which is filtered and prepared by a variety of methods and in different utensils,” says Yahel Shefer, the exhibition’s co-curator (with Noa Berger), who spent the past five years studying the subject and collecting rare items associated with the material culture that sprang up side by side with the social etiquette that accompanies coffee consumption.

...

Coffee, she adds, “also gives rise to a unique institution dedicated to it, which becomes the most popular gathering place in the world. In Palestine, coffeehouses were established in the Ottoman-Arab tradition but also in the European-Western tradition, which was brought by the [German] Templers and by Jewish immigrants from Central and Eastern Europe. In the early 20th century, people in Zion Square in Jerusalem would drink Turkish-Arabian coffee in the morning, and in the afternoon hang out in the famous Café Europa.”

...

"The owners of the Jerusalem cafés opened by the mid-16th century were for the most part Muslims, though they were frequented by Jews and Christians as well. Jewish clerics joined their Muslim colleagues in expressing misgivings about the popular new beverage and the social institution that was springing up around it.

“The first Hebrew mention of a coffeehouse appears in Safed in the 1560s,” says Prof. Yaron Ben-Naeh from the department of Jewish history at the Hebrew University. “The Safed café is mentioned as having a dubious reputation, or in the words of the text, it was a place of ‘frivolous company.’ The religious arbiters of Judaism, like their Muslim counterparts, are undecided about whether it is permitted to drink coffee. Isaac Luria, the holy ‘Ari’ [“Lion,” his epithet], the greatest of the kabbalists, rules that drinking coffee is forbidden, but the believers simply ignore it. No one abides by the prohibitions.”

...

"Early evidence for the institutionalization of a local coffee culture is the existence of the coffee-sellers’ guild, which appears in the records of the Muslim court in Jerusalem in 1590."

Market design, redesigned (in startups and university labs)

Market design is evolving, and new ways of organizing it are being explored. 

In my post yesterday, I talked about the early work on school choice that Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, Tayfun Sonmez and I did under the auspices of Boston schools Superintendent Tom Payzant. The market design by economists in Boston, as with the earlier successful effort in New York City, was conducted as part of our research work as professors.  Not a penny changed hands, and we all felt good about that.

But if there was a flaw in that working arrangement, it was that no contracts were signed, and so as staff turnover took place in school districts, and the individuals we had dealt with departed, the district's institutional memory eroded, and they didn't always remember to turn to us when difficulties arose that we could have helped them with. Partly to address that, and to have at least one person able to devote time to approaching school districts, Parag and Atila and I supported Neil Dorosin in founding the non-profit  Institute for Innovation in Public School Choice, which during its lifetime helped school choice in a number of American cities, including Denver, New Orleans, and Washington D.C.

Parag and Atila went on to be founding members of MIT's School Effectiveness and Inequality Intiative, which just this week was "relaunched" with a different team as MIT Blueprint Labs, which aims to build on MIT's strengths not just in school choice but in a much wider area of market design and policy analysis, and to be a lab with a large staff and extensive fundraising:

Launch announcement of MIT Blueprint Labs

Featuring

Professor Parag Pathak Faculty Director MIT SEII / Blueprint Labs Research spotlight: K-12 education

Professor Joshua Angrist Faculty Director MIT SEII / Blueprint Labs Research spotlight: Higher education and the workforce

Professor Nikhil Agarwal Faculty Director, Health Care MIT SEII / Blueprint Labs Research spotlight: Health care

Eryn Heying Executive Director MIT SEII / Blueprint Labs

****************

Update: and here's the Blueprint Labs new (announced Aug. 11) website: https://blueprintlabs.mit.edu/

***************

In a related development, Parag has cofounded a new for-profit Ed-tech startup called Avela, that plans to spread the technologies he's helped pioneer.  A for-profit firm has some funding, employment and investing opportunities that aren't available to non-profits or university labs, let alone to teams of professors organized informally. And as in the Blueprint Lab, they hope that the tools they will develop will be readily applicable to quite a broad range of matching markets and market designs.

***************

These various efforts look to me like design experiments themselves, in the search for sustainable ways of making market design a permanent part of not only the research that economists do, but of the practical effects we hope to foster.

Observing all this from the West Coast, and over several decades, I can't help noticing that these institutional changes have been accompanied by team changes, and shifting collaborations among market designers.  

There are also a growing number of different kinds of economists (and computer scientists, operations researchers and businesses) involved in designing and assessing markets, and market design has not only changed markets, but changed the way economists work, in many small and large ways.  Econometricians and development economists have led the way in organizing large labs, and market design may be heading in that direction as well. Big and small tech firms have also started to think of market design as among their core competencies, and as a discipline they should be hiring.

********************

Here in California, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that my colleague Paul Milgrom has for a long time engaged in auction design through his for-profit company Auctionomics.

And Susan Athey is the faculty director of a big lab at Stanford using different technologies in other areas of market design:  the Golub Capital Social Impact Lab, which describes itself this way:

"We use digital technology and social science research to improve the effectiveness of leading social sector organizations.

"Based out of Stanford GSB, the lab is a research initiative of affiliated academics and staff, as well as researchers and students, who are passionate about conducting research that guides and improves the process of innovation.

"Research Approach

We collaborate with a wide range of organizations, from large firms to smaller startups, for-profits to nonprofits, and NGOs to governments, to conduct research. Then, we apply and disseminate our insights to achieve social impact at large scale."

Tom Payzant, Boston schools superintendent who reformed school choice, dies at 80

 Tom Payzant played a critical role in transforming Boston's school choice from an immediate acceptance algorithm that exposed students and families to complex strategic risk when navigating the system, to a deferred acceptance algorithm that simplified their participation. As Superintendent of Boston Public Schools, Tom came to understand those issues well, and acted on them.

Here's his obit in the Boston Globe.

Thomas Payzant, whose education vision lifted Boston’s schools, dies at 80, By Bryan Marquard

and here's the statement from Boston Public Schools:

SUPERINTENDENT'S STATEMENT ON THE PASSING OF TOM PAYZANT

Here's a pic I took of Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, and Tayfun Sonmez when we met with Payzant and his colleagues at Boston Public School headquarters, during the years we worked with BPS, starting around 2003.

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak and Tayfun Sonmez at Boston Public School headquarters

Here's a paper that came out of those meetings, describing the deliberations that ultimately led BPS to adopt a deferred acceptance algorithm design for it's school choice system.

• Abdulkadiroglu, Atila, Parag A. Pathak, Alvin E. Roth, and Tayfun Sonmez, The Boston Public School Match," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 95,2, May, 2005, 368-371.

Over the course of those years, I was privileged to watch Parag evolve from a super smart young grad student to being a leader in the design of school choice.

I'll post tomorrow about some of Parag's latest efforts to bring the work associated with the design and evaluation of school choice, and market design more generally, into the world of startup companies and big university labs.

The Art of Experimental Economics: Twenty Top Papers Reviewed , edited by Gary Charness and Mark Pingle

 Here's a forthcoming book that provides a unique and entertaining review of twenty influential papers in experimental economics. Katie Coffman and I wrote the review of the classic 2007 paper on gender and competition by Niederle and Vesterlund.

The Art of Experimental Economics: Twenty Top Papers Reviewed  Edited By Gary Charness, Mark Pingle  Forthcoming by Routledge

Item will ship after August 27, 2021  ISBN 9780367894306

Chapter 1: Introducing 20 Top Papers and their Reviewers  Gary Charness and Mark Pingle

Chapter 2: An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior (by Vernon L. Smith)  Reviewed by Charles A. Holt

Chapter 3: The Strategy Method as an Instrument for the Exploration of Limited Rationality in Oligopoly Game Behavior (by Reinhard Selten)  Reviewed by Claudia Keser and Hartmut Kliemt

Chapter 4: An Experimental Analysis of Ultimatum Bargaining (by Werner Güth, Rolf Schmittberger and Bernd Schwarze)  Reviewed by Brit Grosskopf and Rosemarie Nagel

Chapter 5: The Winner’s Curse and Public Information in Common Value Auctions (by John H. Kagel and Dan Levin)  Reviewed by Gary Charness

Chapter 6: Group Size Effects in Public Goods Provision: The Voluntary Contributions Mechanism (by R. Mark Isaac and James M. Walker)  Reviewed by James Andreoni

Chapter 7:  Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets (by Charles R. Plott and Shyam Sunder)    Reviewed by R. Mark Isaac

Chapter 8: Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem (by Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, Richard H. Thaler)   Reviewed by John A. List

Chapter 9: Bargaining and Market Behavior in Jerusalem, Ljubljana, Pittsburgh and Tokyo: An Experimental Study (by Alvin E. Roth, Vesna Prasnikar, Masahiro Okuno-Fujiwara and Shmuel Zamir) Reviewed by Armin Falk

Chapter 10: Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study (by Rosemarie Nagel)  Reviewed by John H. Kagel and Antonio Penta

Chapter 11: Trust, Reciprocity, and Social History (by Joyce Berg, John Dickhaut, and Kevin McCabe) Reviewed by Vernon L. Smith

Chapter 12: Cooperation and Punishment in Public Goods Experiments (by Ernst Fehr and Simon Gachter)  Reviewed by Yan Chen

Chapter 13: A Fine is a Price (by Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rustichini)  Reviewed by Alex Imas

Chapter 14: Giving according to GARP: An Experimental Test of the Consistency of Preferences for Altruism (by James Andreoni and John Miller)  Reviewed by Catherine Eckel

Chapter 15: Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects (by Charles Holt and Susan Laury)  Reviewed by Kevin McCabe

Chapter 16: Does market experience eliminate market anomalies? (by John A. List) Reviewed by Matthias Sutter

Chapter 17: Promises and Partnership (by Gary Charness and Martin Dufwenberg)  Reviewed by Urs Fischbacher and Franziska Föllmi-Heusi

Chapter 18: The Hidden Costs of Control (by Armin Falk and Michael Kosfeld)  Reviewed by Laura Razzolini and Rachel Croson

Chapter 19: Do Women Shy Away from Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much? (by Muriel Niederle and Lise Vesterlund)  Reviewed by Katherine B. Coffman and Alvin E. Roth 

Chapter 20: Group Identity and Social Preferences (by Yan Chen and Sherry X. Li)  Reviewed by Marie Claire Villeval 

Chapter 21: Lies in Disguise—An Experimental Study on Cheating (by Urs Fischbacher and Franziska Föllmi-Heusi)  Reviewed by Uri Gneezy and Marta Serra-Garcia

***************

Here's my Foreword to the book:

 Twenty carefully chosen papers in experimental economics, reviewed and put in context by veteran experimenters, provide an excellent, close-up introduction to the richness and diversity of the field, and where it is coming from. These twenty papers appeared over a period of half a century, from 1962 to 2013, during which economic experiments went from being quite rare to taking their place among the standard tools of economics.

When John Kagel and I edited the Handbook of Experimental Economics, volumes 1 and 2 (1995 and 2016), we encouraged the chapter authors not to try to tell readers how to do good experiments, but to show them. And so it is with these papers: there are lots of ways to do good experiments, and here is a collection of twenty that have been influential. The reviews make clear that a successful, influential experiment is part of a scientific conversation that began well before the experiment was designed and conducted, and continued well after it was published and replicated. These conversations aren’t only among experimenters, nor are they only among economists: experiments add to scientific conversations of all sorts, answering some questions and raising others, often questions that couldn’t even be posed with equal precision in naturally occurring environments.   

Reader, beware. After reading this volume, you will want to read more, and, your curiosity aroused, may find yourself on the slippery slope of designing and conducting your own experiments.

Alvin E. Roth, Stanford University, December 2020.

Bibliography:

Kagel, J.H. and A.E. Roth (editors) Handbook of Experimental Economics, Princeton University Press, 1995.

Kagel, J.H. and A.E. Roth (editors) Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2, Princeton University Press, 2016.

Uterus transplants considered in Japan

 Here's the story from the Asahi Shimbun, including some background. For the time being, only living-donor organs seem to be allowed under Japanese law:

Medical group allows for uterus transplants to give birth

"A Japanese Association of Medical Sciences committee released a report on July 14 clearing the way for uterus transplants, a rare procedure that faces obstacles. 

...

"The biggest issue facing the committee was that the transplant objective would be to allow the woman to give birth.

"That differs greatly from other transplants in which the main objective is to save the recipient’s life. In addition, committee members had to consider allowing a transplant operation that held major health risks for both the donor and recipient.

"According to a report, there have been 85 cases of uterus transplants in 16 nations overseas as of March and 40 have led to the delivery of a baby.

"In many of those cases, an in-vitro fertilized embryo is placed in the transplanted uterus. But the uterus is removed after childbirth because of the need to continue using immunosuppressant agents to prevent the body from rejecting the transplanted organ.

"In Japan, there are an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 women between the ages of 20 and 50 who were born without uteruses or have had their uteruses surgically removed due to tumors or other causes.

...

"There are also legal hurdles that have to be cleared.

"Japan’s organ transplant law does not include uteruses as an organ that can be removed for transplantation from a brain-dead individual.

"For that reason, the report allowed for transplants from live donors in only a very few cases to conduct clinical research.

"The report also called for revising the organ transplant law to allow for uterus transplants from brain-dead women.

"But even if the law was revised, organ donations from brain-dead individuals are still not widespread in Japan, meaning it would be almost impossible to plan for a uterus transplant operation.

"Experts were divided in their views about the latest report.

"Nobuhiko Suganuma, a professor of reproductive medicine at Nagoya University of Arts and Sciences who heads the Japan Society for Uterus Transplantation, said providing an alternative for women who want to give birth was a positive development.

"But Yukiko Saito, an associate professor of medical ethics at Kitasato University, raised concerns about approving an available technology just because there may be people who want to utilize it."

Redistribution through markets, in Econometrica, by Dworczak, Kominers, and Akbarpour

 Market designs involving taxes, or rationing, in the latest Econometrica, Vol. 89, No. 4 (July, 2021), 1665–1698:

REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH MARKETS by PIOTR DWORCZAK, SCOTT DUKE KOMINERS,  and MOHAMMAD AKBARPOUR

Abstract: "Policymakers frequently use price regulations as a response to inequality in the markets they control. In this paper, we examine the optimal structure of such policies from the perspective of mechanism design. We study a buyer-seller market in which agents have private information about both their valuations for an indivisible object and their marginal utilities for money. The planner seeks a mechanism that maximizes agents’ total utilities, subject to incentive and market-clearing constraints. We uncover the constrained Pareto frontier by identifying the optimal trade-off between allocative efficiency and redistribution. We find that competitive-equilibrium allocation is not always optimal. Instead, when there is inequality across sides of the market, the optimal design uses a tax-like mechanism, introducing a wedge between the buyer and seller prices, and redistributing the resulting surplus to the poorer side of the market via lump-sum payments. When there is significant same-side inequality that can be uncovered by market behavior, it may be optimal to impose price controls even though doing so induces rationing."

****************

" the classic idea that competitive-equilibrium pricing maximizes welfare relies on an implicit assumption that the designer places the same welfare weight on all agents in the market. Thus, the standard economic intuitions in support of competitive equilibrium pricing become unreliable as the dispersion of wealth in a society expands."

Emergency decision making and medical ethics for breakfast

 Saturday morning breakfast cereal (SMBC) has hidden a message for us here:

Does legal marijuana lead to the use of more dangerous drugs, or increase crime?

 It appears that the short answer is "No," according to this recent NBER working paper

Is Recreational Marijuana a Gateway to Harder Drug Use and Crime?  by Joseph J. Sabia, Dhaval M. Dave, Fawaz Alotaibi & Daniel I. Rees

WORKING PAPER 29038, DOI 10.3386/w29038,  July 2021

Recreational marijuana laws (RMLs), which legalize the possession of small quantities of marijuana for recreational use, have been adopted by 18 states and the District of Columbia. Opponents argue that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption will serve as a “gateway” to harder drug use and crime. Using data covering the period 2000-2019 from a variety of national sources (the National Survey of Drug Use and Health, the Uniform Crime Reports, the National Vital Statistics System, and the Treatment Episode Data Set) this study is the first to comprehensively examine the effects of legalizing recreational marijuana on hard drug use, arrests, drug overdose deaths, suicides, and treatment admissions. Our analyses show that RMLs increase adult marijuana use and reduce drug-related arrests over an average post-legalization window of three to four years. There is little evidence to suggest that RML-induced increases in marijuana consumption encourage the use of harder substances or violent criminal activity.

U.S, drug overdose deaths at 93,000 in 2020

Fentanyl infused opioids are epidemic on the street. Here's the story from the Washington Post:

Drug overdose deaths soared to a record 93,000 last year By Lenny Bernstein  and Joel Achenbach

 The death toll jumped by more than 21,000, or nearly 30 percent, from 2019, according to provisional data released by the National Center for Health Statistics, eclipsing the record set that year.

...

"The estimated number of overdose deaths reached 93,331 in 2020, according to the new data. Annual final numbers usually differ little from the provisional figures released Wednesday. More than 900,000 people have died of overdoses since the U.S. drug epidemic began about 1999, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The National Center for Health Statistics is part of the CDC.

"Opioids, primarily illegal fentanyl, continued to drive the death toll, as they have for years. Overdose deaths involving opioids reached 69,710 in 2020, up from 50,963 in 2019, according to the data. Deaths from methamphetamine and cocaine also rose.Nora Volkow, head of the National Institute on Drug Abuse, said in an interview that fentanyl has so thoroughly infiltrated the illegal drug supply that 70 percent of cocaine overdose deaths and 50 percent of methamphetamine overdose deaths also involved fentanyl."

Marketplace for supplies to produce vaccines: COVAX

 Scott Kominers sends me the following link, of a marketplace intended to notify vaccine makers of supplies that may be available:

The COVAX Marketplace

"The COVAX Marketplace aims to accelerate the global production of COVID-19 vaccine doses for COVAX by matching existing suppliers of critical inputs with vaccine manufacturers who urgently need them to produce vaccines for fair and equitable distribution through COVAX

...

"The COVAX Marketplace is a key deliverable of the COVAX Manufacturing Task Force. It aims to respond quickly to immediate market needs and bottlenecks and improve the free flow of critical COVID-19 vaccine supplies by:

– Providing suppliers with a platform to allocate and reallocate unused materials.

– Mobilising idle stock from vaccines and candidates that fail prior to gaining regulatory approval – as well as from those that might scale down their production in the future.

– Mobilising potential surplus stock from manufacturers with non-vaccine activities.

...

"The initial version of the Marketplace will include COVAX vaccine manufacturers and suppliers of the key materials that have been identified as being most urgently needed.

"Participants in the COVAX Marketplace will be able to offer and request any materials required for vaccine production through the Marketplace, but it will initially focus on six categories of supplies that have been identified as critical: bioreactor bags, single use assemblies, cell culture media, filters, lipids, vials, and stoppers.

...

"Matches negotiate and conclude the transaction between themselves, independently of the Marketplace. Pairs notify CEPI on successful closure."

**************

Other posts on supply chains.

Matching Foreign Service officers to positions: the labor market at the State Department

 Many public servants became discouraged during the Trump administration, and those who serve in U.S. Embassies and consulates, and at the State Department in Washington, are no exception.  But the demands of overseas assignments make their internal labor market a matching market with many specific requirements.

Here's a new report:

Retention Issues at the State Department

"In a new report published by the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Constanza Castro Zúñiga, Mojib Ghaznawi, and Caroline Kim highlight the retention crisis at the State Department. The Harvard Kennedy School Master in Public Policy (MPP) graduates surveyed 2,853 Foreign Service Officers (FSOs) and Foreign Service Specialists (FSSs) on their experiences at State.

"Their report finds that “31.42% (797) of current officers surveyed are seriously considering leaving the Foreign Service and are actively exploring their options. Of these officers, 31.27% (247) plan to leave in the next year and 56.58% (447) plan to leave in the next five years. This indicates a clear discontent within the Foreign Service that will increase attrition above the Department’s historical averages” (p.11).

"The authors conclude that “FSOs and FSSs feel lost in a workplace that lacks accountability and transparency, to the point where our data suggests a coming exodus on the horizon. While it is impossible to design the perfect system, the Department can strive to create a Foreign Service that feels fair, equitable, and inclusive. However, that can only happen if the Department understands what is driving people away. By surveying over one-fifth of the State Department’s officer corps, we discovered the four biggest drivers that motivate members to leave the Department. By targeting structural and cultural changes to address families, assignments, promotions, and bias, the Department can begin a proactive approach to address retention. However, this will require leadership to listen from the bottom-up and implement from the topdown. If the State Department can begin implementing the recommendations that we have suggested here, it will be on its way to having a Foreign Service that is truly talented and representative” (p. 41).

"Recommendations include extension of Leave Without Pay (LWOP) for Department employees; updated and more flexible remote work policies; a centralized preference matching system to streamline, standardize, and increase transparency in the assignments process; and that the State Department should consider conducting an annual Organizational Climate Survey."

***********

The report itself is here:  https://georgetown.app.box.com/s/vu5gk9qfh6vd0uc6feagqu1u6o7mmawc 

Here's part of the discussion of the matching market: 

"The  current  assignments  process  at  State  is  broken.  Bidders  and  hiring  managers  waste  considerable  time and energy under the current system trying to extract commitments from each other. Rules related to  bidding  prevent  commitments  and  formal  offers  before  imposed  deadlines,  relying  on  informal “handshakes”  of  mutual  interest.  Pressure  on  both  sides  to  secure  desirable  positions  or  candidates  leads to suboptimal outcomes in a process that is growing increasingly non-transparent, stressful, time-consuming, and inequitable.

...

" The Bureau of Global Talent Management’s Office of Career Development and Assignments (GTM/CDA) is collaborating with the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP)58 to design, execute, and evaluate a pilot use of a preference-matching algorithm in bidding and assignments. NRMP will adapt its ranking process to account for CDA bidding rules on eligibility.  NRMP will provide a software platform for collecting rank ordered preferences from bidders, hiring-managers, and bureaus.  CDA  and  NRMP  will  develop  training  and  communication  materials  for  bidders,  hiring  managers, and bureau decision-makers on the use of the algorithm during one or more regular bidding cycles, as well as provide customer support on using NRMP’s proprietary software. Using the collected preferences, NRMP will run the algorithm to produce matches for bureaus to use as the basis for handshake offers for assignments."

Simone Biles in the WSJ. News, sports, ads, endorsements: the money trail is varied and complex:

 Sports, accomplishment, celebrity, endorsements, modeling: The WSJ published last week a long article about Simone Biles, the gymnast who is one of the most dominant athletes in any sport.  It's an article that touches on her past Olympic and other victories, on how she trained during Covid, on her work ethic and ability to concentrate even during the Covid pandemic. It also covers her business ventures and endorsements, and the training facility her family runs.  

The story also addresses darker issues in her family and her sport, including that she was a victim of sex abuse by the now imprisoned USA Gymnastics national team doctor, who was convicted of abusing many young gymnasts.

The article comes with photos, and in many of them she is modeling clothes, which are described by producer and price in the captions, which also refer back to the larger story.  Here is one caption which made me blink as it juxtaposed the story about sex abuse with the price of the clothes she was modeling:

"Biles says that by competing and remaining in the public eye, she is forcing the world to continue to address the Larry Nassar scandal and the many failures that allowed him to prey on gymnasts for years. Kwaidan Editions dress, $990, ssense.com, Mateo earrings, $650, mateonewyork.com, and Completedworks necklace, $240, completedworks.com."

Here's the whole article:

Simone Biles Will Not Be Denied.  "At 24, the most powerful gymnast in history has defied expectations to become even stronger—after surviving abuse, enduring a family ordeal and overcoming her own doubts."    By Louise Radnofsky | Photography by Rahim Fortune for WSJ. Magazine | Styling by Jessica Willis

INFORMS Workshop on Market Design, July 23-24, 2021

 Here's the announcement:

INFORMS Workshop on Market Design 2021.  July 23-24, 2021

"(in conjunction with the ACM EC 2021 conference)

"The 3rd INFORMS workshop on market design is organized by the INFORMS Section on Auctions and Market Design in conjunction with the ACM EC 2021 conference. The workshop brings together researchers and also practitioners designing markets, developing algorithms and theory for multi-object markets with or without money. 

...

"Keynote speakers

• Tommy Andersson, Lund University
• Wedad Elmaghraby, Univ. of Maryland
• Asu Ozdaglar, MIT

Organizers

• Martin Bichler, Technical University of Munich
• Sasa Pekec, Duke University
• Alex Teytelboym, University of Oxford

...

"To attend the workshop, please complete the registration here."

Are incentives for vaccination coercive, exploitative, or otherwise unethical? Persad and Emanuel think not, in JAMA

 Many jurisdictions and venues are now offering incentives for people to be vaccinated against Covid-19.  It will not surprise the readers of this blog to learn that some people have found incentives for vaccination to be repugnant, and perhaps to be immoral and unethical coercion or exploitation.  Here's an article rebutting those concerns, in JAMA

Ethical Considerations of Offering Benefits to COVID-19 Vaccine Recipients  by Govind Persad, JD, PhD1; Ezekiel J. Emanuel, MD, PhD, JAMA. Published online July 1, 2021. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.11045

"Entry into a million-dollar lottery for getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is Ohio’s offer to adults. Teens who get vaccinated receive a lottery ticket for state college tuition, room, board, and more. Other states are offering gift cards. Now many employers are offering rewards for COVID-19 vaccination. Businesses ranging from Krispy Kreme and Sam Adams beer to the Cincinnati Reds have announced discounts or prizes for vaccinated individuals. Are these benefit programs ethical? Are they useful? Are they better than mandates?

...

"The ethical case for instituting vaccine benefit programs is justified by 2 widely recognized values: (1) reducing overall harm from COVID-19 and (2) protecting disadvantaged individuals.1 If benefit programs increase vaccine uptake, they directly protect recipients. By reducing transmission, increased uptake also protects the population, including ineligible children and adults, unvaccinated adults, and individuals with conditions reducing vaccine efficacy (Table). Because transmission has been higher and outcomes worse in less-advantaged communities, stemming transmission especially protects those in disadvantaged communities. In addition, costs, such as time off work for getting a vaccine or dealing with vaccine-related adverse effects, finding daycare for children, and transportation to a vaccine site, hamper access for poorer and marginalized people. Benefit programs, especially in the form of guaranteed cash payments, could improve access and increase uptake by offsetting these costs."

Surrogacy in Israel: now available to same sex couples (and single fathers)

 Here's the story from the Washington Post:

Israel’s high court opens the way for same-sex couples to have children via surrogacy  By Claire Parker

"A decision by Israel’s supreme court Sunday paved the way for same-sex couples to have children through surrogacy, capping a decade-old legal battle in what activist groups hailed as a major advance for LGBTQ rights in Israel.

"Restrictions on surrogacy for same-sex couples and single fathers in Israel must be lifted within six months, the court ruled, giving authorities time to prepare for the change while making clear that it is a definitive one

...

"Surrogacy was already permitted for heterosexual couples and single women. The law excluded same-sex couples, however, and some who couldn’t have kids with surrogate mothers in Israel turned to surrogates overseas.

...

"Israel is considered a leader in the Middle East on LGBTQ rights: The state recognizes same-sex marriages performed abroad, and LGBTQ-identifying individuals serve openly in the military and the parliament. Same-sex couples cannot be married in Israel, however, and ultra-Orthodox communities and politicians remain hostile to LGBTQ rights"

Experiments touching on market design in the July AER

 The July AER has a number of experiments that speak to market design:

 Online,

How to Avoid Black Markets for Appointments with Online Booking Systems  By Rustamdjan Hakimov, C.-Philipp Heller, Dorothea Kübler, and Morimitsu Kurino*

Abstract: Allocating appointment slots is presented as a new application for market design. Online booking systems are commonly used by public authorities to allocate appointments for visa interviews, driver’s licenses, passport renewals, etc. We document that black markets for appointments have developed in many parts of the world. Scalpers book the appointments that are offered for free and sell the slots to appointment seekers. We model the existing first-come-first-served booking system and propose an alternative batch system. The batch system collects applications for slots over a certain time period and then randomly allocates slots to applicants. The theory predicts and lab experiments confirm that scalpers profitably book and sell slots under the current system with sufficiently high demand, but that they are not active in the proposed batch system. We discuss practical issues for the implementation of the batch system and its applicability to other markets with scalping.

***********

In rural Malawi,

Pay Me Later: Savings Constraints and the Demand for Deferred Payments  By Lasse Brune, Eric Chyn, and Jason Kerwin*

Abrstract: We study a simple savings scheme that allows workers to defer receipt of part of their wages for three months at zero interest. The scheme significantly increases savings during the deferral period, leading to higher postdisbursement spending on lumpy goods. Two years later, after two additional rounds of the savings scheme, we find that treated workers have made permanent improvements to their homes. The popularity of the scheme implies a lack of good alternative savings options. The results of a follow-up experiment suggest that demand for the scheme is partly due to its ability to address self-control issues.

************

In Rwanda,

Recruitment, Effort, and Retention Effects of Performance Contracts for Civil Servants: Experimental Evidence from Rwandan Primary Schools  by Clare Leaver, Owen Ozier, Pieter Serneels and Andrew Zeitlin

Abstract: This paper reports on a two-tiered experiment designed to separately identify the selection and effort margins of pay for performance (P4P). At the recruitment stage, teacher labor markets were randomly assigned to a "pay-for-percentile" or fixed-wage contract. Once recruits were placed, an unexpected, incentive-compatible, school-level re-randomization was performed so that some teachers who applied for a fixed-wage contract ended up being paid by P4P, and vice versa. By the second year of the study, the within-year effort effect of P4P was 0.16 standard deviations of pupil learning, with the total effect rising to 0.20 standard deviations after allowing for selection. 

*************

and in India,

On Her Own Account: How Strengthening Women's Financial Control Impacts Labor Supply and Gender Norms  By Erica Field, Rohini Pande, Natalia Rigol, Simone Schaner and Charity Troyer Moore

Abstract: Can increasing control over earnings incentivize a woman to work, and thereby influence norms around gender roles? We randomly varied whether rural Indian women received bank accounts, training in account use, and direct deposit of public sector wages into their own (versus husbands') accounts. Relative to the accounts only group, women who also received direct deposit and training worked more in public and private sector jobs. The private sector result suggests gender norms initially constrained female employment. Three years later, direct deposit and training broadly liberalized women's own work-related norms, and shifted perceptions of community norms. 

The race to transact in high frequency trading by Aquilina, Budish, and O'Neill

 High frequency traders are constantly involved in races to trade on existing bids and asks or to cancel those bids and asks as they become stale.  Here's an NBER working paper that let's us look in on the action.

Quantifying the High-Frequency Trading "Arms Race"  by Matteo Aquilina, Eric Budish & Peter O'Neill  NBER WORKING PAPER 29011 DOI 10.3386/w29011  July 2021

Abstract: "We use stock exchange message data to quantify the negative aspect of high-frequency trading, known as “latency arbitrage.” The key difference between message data and widely-familiar limit order book data is that message data contain attempts to trade or cancel that fail. This allows the researcher to observe both winners and losers in a race, whereas in limit order book data you cannot see the losers, so you cannot directly see the races. We find that latency-arbitrage races are very frequent (about one per minute per symbol for FTSE 100 stocks), extremely fast (the modal race lasts 5-10 millionths of a second), and account for a remarkably large portion of overall trading volume (about 20%). Race participation is concentrated, with the top 6 firms accounting for over 80% of all race wins and losses. The average race is worth just a small amount (about half a price tick), but because of the large volumes the stakes add up. Our main estimates suggest that races constitute roughly one-third of price impact and the effective spread (key microstructure measures of the cost of liquidity), that latency arbitrage imposes a roughly 0.5 basis point tax on trading, that market designs that eliminate latency arbitrage would reduce the market's cost of liquidity by 17%, and that the total sums at stake are on the order of $5 billion per year in global equity markets alone."

From the introduction:

"At the center of the controversy over speed is a phenomenon called “latency arbitrage”, also known as “sniping” or “picking off” stale quotes. In plain English, a latency arbitrage is an arbitrage opportunity that is sufficiently mechanical and obvious that capturing it is primarily a contest in speed. For example, if the price of the S&P 500 futures contract changes by a large-enough amount in Chicago, there is a race around the world to pick off stale quotes in every asset highly correlated to the S&P 500 index: S&P 500 exchange traded funds, other US equity index futures and ETFs, global equity index futures and ETFs, etc. Many other examples arise from other sets of highly correlated assets: treasury bonds of slightly different durations, or in the cash market versus the futures market; options and the underlying stock; ETFs and their largest component stocks; currency triangles; commodities at different delivery dates; etc. Perhaps the simplest example is if the exact same asset trades in many different venues. For example, in the US stock market, there are 16 different exchanges and 50+ alternative trading venues, all trading the same stocks—so if the price of a stock changes by enough on one venue, there is a race to pick off stale quotes on all the others. These races around the world involve microwave links between market centers, trans-oceanic fiber-optic cables, putting trading algorithms onto hardware as opposed to software, co-location rights and proprietary data feeds from exchanges, real estate adjacent to and even on the rooftops of exchanges, and, perhaps most importantly, high-quality human capital. Just a decade ago, the speed race was commonly measured in milliseconds (thousandths of a second); it is now measured in microseconds (millionths) and even nanoseconds (billionths)."

The Power of Market Design, by Paul Milgrom and Silvia Console Battilana in Project Syndicate

 Paul Milgrom and his business partner Silvia Console Battilana describe how market design can reallocate scarce resources from spectrum licenses to water rights.

The Power of Market Design, by Paul Milgrom and Silvia Console Battilana 

"Misallocation of scarce resources too often deprives users of them even as others waste their supply. Well-designed markets can overcome such problems by enabling voluntary transactions that allow existing users to retain their allotments while enabling higher-value uses.

...

"Many of the world’s existing rights to fresh water – both surface water and groundwater – have already been granted and grandfathered in complex ways to cities, farmers, and industrial users. In some cases, each individual trade of these rights requires governmental approval; other jurisdictions prohibit such trading entirely.

"These restrictions and historical rules have led to highly inefficient allocations. Water may be unavailable to towns that require more of it as they grow, even when those urban and residential uses are a hundred times more valuable than the rural ones they would supplant. Certain industrial firms whose rights are based on historical use may have an incentive to overuse water, even during droughts, to retain their rights to future allotments. Where trading of rights is limited or prohibited, poor price signals make it difficult even to assess which uses are most valuable. And water demand will increase and shift as climate change continues to upend historical usage patterns.

"The success of the US radio spectrum auction points to a solution. Instead of revoking incumbents’ spectrum rights unilaterally, Congress redefined them in a way that made trading them possible and simple, and then allowed TV broadcasters to decide for themselves whether to continue their previous uses or decline to participate. The rights that were sold were then reconfigured to be suitable for new uses and efficient trading, while those that were unsold remained fit for existing purposes."