Here's the FDA press release:
" the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a proposed rule that, if finalized, would make cigarettes and certain other combusted tobacco products minimally or nonaddictive by limiting the level of nicotine in those products. If finalized, the United States would be the first country globally to take such a bold, life-saving action to prevent and reduce smoking-related disease and death. The FDA first announced its intent to propose such a rule in 2018, and today’s announcement is an important next step in the rulemaking process. The agency intends to seek input on the proposal, including through public comment and the FDA’s Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee"
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Here are some predictions of possible outcomes of this proposal.
1. (p>.5) No new regulation: We soon see Trump-branded, musk-flavored high-nicotine cigarettes. (no lives saved)
Conditional on the proposals being enacted (i.e. p<.5)
2. Cigarette makers find workarounds (nicotine supplements you can add to your smokes, new organic chemicals functionally equivalent to nicotine, etc. (few lives saved)
3. Black markets emerge: get your full-nicotine cigarettes at the same time you get your Mexican coca cola made with sugar instead of corn syrup. (some lives saved)
4. Smokers switch to non-combustables: Big Tobacco becomes Big vaping, chewing, and under-lip snus, snuff, and oral nicotine pouches. (maybe significant lives saved, but no decrease in nicotine addiction, and maybe substantial increase. Lung cancer down, oral cancers up.)
5. (low probability but we can hope): Smokers quit, and few young people start to smoke: tobacco use drops so low that deaths attributable to smoking drop below those attributable to alcohol or opioids.
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