Don't over-think this (it's not that big a deal), but do send two signals to places at which you'd be glad to get an interview but which might not realize that about you.
Friday, November 27, 2015
Econ Job market: send two signals by this weekend!
Don't over-think this (it's not that big a deal), but do send two signals to places at which you'd be glad to get an interview but which might not realize that about you.
Monday, November 30, 2009
The signaling deadline for the econ job market is tomorrow, Tuesday, at midnight
(For everyone else, here is a description of signaling, it's a process by which job candidates can have the American Economic Association send an indication of particular interest to two potential employers out of the many they have sent applications to. The idea is that a limit to two special signals helps employers sort through the many applications they receive when it is time to decide who to interview at the national meetings in January.)
The deadline is tomorrow, Tuesday, at midnight (2400 EST).
The December JOE is out, so there won't be any new job listings before tomorrow.
Now is the time to chat with your advisor, and send your two signals. (It can't hurt and might help, see the paper linked to in yesterday's post.)
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Reputation in online marketplaces
BUYING REPUTATION AS A SIGNAL OF QUALITY:
EVIDENCE FROM AN ONLINE MARKETPLACE
Lingfang (Ivy) Li, Steven Tadelis, Xiaolan Zhou
Working Paper 22584, http://www.nber.org/papers/w22584
ABSTRACT: Reputation is critical to foster trust in online marketplaces, yet leaving feedback is a public good that can be under-provided unless buyers are rewarded for it. Signaling theory implies that only high quality sellers would reward buyers for truthful feedback. We explore this scope for signaling using Taobao's "reward-for-feedback" mechanism and find that items with rewards
generate sales that are nearly 30% higher and are sold by higher quality sellers. The market design implication is that marketplaces can benefit from allowing sellers to use rewards to build reputations and signal their high quality in the process.
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
The job market for economists, 2026
The WSJ has the story:
Economists Are Studying the Slowing Job Market—and Feeling It Themselves
Newly minted Ph.D.s tend to work for universities, government agencies and big white-collar companies. It’s not a great hiring time for any of them. By Justin Lahart
"The economics job market is getting buffeted by a confluence of forces. Worries about federal funding have led many major universities to reduce, or even freeze, hiring. Jobs within the federal government have dried up. The private sector, where demand for economists has been intense in recent years, has pulled back.
“It’s like a perfect storm,” said Syracuse University economist John Cawley, who heads the American Economic Association’s job market committee.
"The tough market for doctoral students finishing up their studies is hardly unique to economics. What’s different about economists is that they are intensely interested in measuring and understanding how labor markets work—and they have brought that to bear on their own profession. As a result, armed with data from the AEA and all the knowledge they gained in graduate school, doctoral students in economics have a much more precise grasp of what type of environment they are facing than their counterparts in political science, philosophy or biophysics.
...
"The economics job market has its own peculiar rhythms and hierarchies. In the fall, students who are finishing their Ph.D.s, as well as economists in postdoctoral programs, apply for jobs that typically start the following summer. But because students can apply to dozens, or even hundreds, of jobs, this creates a matching problem: How does a prospective employer know which candidates are serious?
"Economists, being economists, have tried to solve this. When a candidate applies for jobs via JOE, they are able to send up to two “signals” of interest for jobs they are particularly interested in—almost like a winking emoji on a dating app. That signaling system was put together with the help of Stanford economist Alvin Roth, who also developed systems for matching kidney donors with patients and New York City schoolchildren with schools."
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Congestion and signaling in the job market, as the ratio of applications to positions continues to rise
Aki Ito, at Business Insider, writes about how the number of job applications per position is growing, and how there's some exploratory use of signaling of interest through job sites that allow a small number of such signals.
"To see how bad it's gotten, I asked Greenhouse, one of the leading providers of hiring software, to take a look at their data. Last quarter, the average job opening received 242 applications — nearly triple the amount in 2017, when the unemployment rate was at a comparable level.
"Nobody's happy with the current situation," says Greenhouse CEO Daniel Chait. "Something broke in the technology."
"This isn't the first time a market's grown so overcrowded it stopped functioning. Economists even have a name for it: congestion. Big markets hold the promise of creating better matches, but they also tend to devolve into total chaos.
"Congestion is the bane of a lot of markets," says Alvin Roth, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at Stanford who's helped design programs to better match students with schools, organ donors with patients, and hospitals with new doctors. "Successful marketplaces have to fight hard to defeat congestion."
...
"The forces that make it cheap to send more applications are working faster than the forces that allow you to quickly process many applications," says Roth. "We're deep into congestion."
...
[There is] "a new website where candidates can manage their applications to Greenhouse's clients. There, it introduced a feature called Dream Job, which lets people mark one application a month as a job they especially want. The idea is that recruiters don't just want qualified applicants. They want to know — amid the sea of people applying with a single click — who's actually serious enough that they'd likely accept an offer.
"Online daters might recognize the concept as the "rose" on Hinge or the "super like" on Tinder — gestures borrowed from a landmark study in market design. Dream Job launched in June, and the early data is promising: Employers have been five times more likely to hire Dream Job applicants than standard ones.
"Other intermediaries of the job market are trying their own fixes. LinkedIn, for instance, introduced its own "rose," called Top Choice, to its premium members (Top Choice candidates, the platform says, are 43% more likely to get a recruiter message). It also shows people whether they're a high, medium, or low match for the roles they view ("try exploring other jobs," it gently advises low-match candidates). And this year it's been testing daily limits on Easy Apply submissions."
Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Signals and interviews in the transition from medical school to residency
Late last year I was interviewed by Dr. Seth Leopold, who is a Professor in the Department of Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine at the University of Washington School of Medicine, and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research. That interview has just appeared ahead of print on the journal's website:
A Conversation with … Alvin E. Roth PhD, Economist, Game Theorist, and Nobel Laureate Who Improved the Modern Residency Match by Leopold, Seth S. MD, Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research: April 7, 2021 - Publish Ahead of Print - doi: 10.1097/CORR.0000000000001758
Here's one part of our Q&A:
Dr. Leopold:You once commented in a Not the Last Word column in CORR® that the Match might be improved if a bit more room could be made for candidates to send “signals” to programs that indicate particular interest[5]; if you could make one change to the Match right now to make it fairer all around, what would that change be?
Dr. Roth: I don’t yet know enough about the whole pre-Match process of applications and interviews to answer that confidently. I’m hoping to gain access to data that will illuminate more clearly how applications lead to interviews, and how interviews interact with other kinds of information to influence what rank-order lists are submitted by applicants and programs. Some of that process is surely in flux, between the pandemic causing interviews to be conducted remotely and the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 going pass/fail. Signaling is a way to address miscoordination in interviewing (such as whether too many interviews are concentrating on too few candidates), but there are other ways the interview process might be broken that might better be addressed by other tweaks in how interviews are organized.
Dr. Leopold:I believe the study you’re proposing here would find a very attentive audience, both in medical schools and residency programs across the country, especially competitive ones like orthopaedic surgery. Based on other kinds of markets you’ve evaluated—I recognize I’m asking you to speculate—what do you think you might find here?
Dr. Roth: Presently, in at least some specialties, many interviews are conducted for each residency and fellowship position. It could be that interviews play a critical role in allowing programs and applicants to assess each other, regardless of the other information they may have. But it could also be that at least some interviews are being conducted “defensively,” because all the interviews that others are participating in make it hard for each program or applicant to predict how likely any interview will lead to a position being offered and accepted in the Match. So, it is possible that there is “too much” interviewing, in the sense that in perhaps predictable ways, some programs are interviewing some candidates they can virtually never hire, and some candidates they would never want to hire. Conversely, applicants are interviewing for some jobs they have hardly any chance of being offered, and some they sensibly think they won’t need to take. Of course, some things can be predictable even if they can’t be predicted by individual applicants and programs with the information they now have available. It might therefore be possible to suggest institutional reforms that would help reduce the uncertainty in deciding which interviews to offer. That might also reduce the number (and costs) of interviews. (In just such a way, the Match helped solve the problem of uncertainty involved in offers and acceptances, back when offers were exploding.) And there’s a possibility that fewer interviews could make everyone better off in terms of expectations, particularly if participants on both sides of the market will feel a reduced need to do so many interviews if everyone else reduces the number they do. But as you say, until we can look into this carefully, I’m just speculating.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Final remarks in our market design class
One remark is that market design is an eclectic field, drawing on game theory, experiments, computation, and field observation of all sorts (rules are data!).
Teaching the class over the last not-quite-a-decade has been an invigorating intellectual experience. When Paul Milgrom and I began the class (when he spent a year at Harvard in 2001), he had the FCC spectrum auction experience under his belt, and I had the redesign of the National Resident Matching Program under mine, and we had plenty of ideas.
I entertained a faint worry that, at the end of the decade, those might still be the only major applications we had to talk about. But, as things turned out, we can no longer fit all the newly implemented market designs into one course (and Susan Athey will again teach a second semester of Market Design, focused on many recent auction applications, in the Spring). Among the designs we talked about this semester are other health care labor markets, Kidney Exchange, School choice mechanisms, signaling for new economists, internet ad auctions, and more.
I've also been gratified by developments in market design as a field of study. Not only have there been successful applications, there's starting to be an academic literature focused on practical market design, and the theoretical and empirical questions it raises. While there are still some special obstacles that have to be overcome to publish market design papers in general economics journals, we've come a long way since I worried about that in my 2002 paper "The Economist as Engineer: Game Theory, Experimentation, and Computation as Tools for Design Economics.
As I remarked in two earlier posts (see Market design is coming of age, and Market design courses this Fall at Harvard and MIT) another sign that the field is healthy is that it is attracting some of the most creative young minds. Some alumni of Harvard and the course who are presently active in market design and/or matching are Estelle Cantillon (with whom I taught the course for two years), Muriel Niederle, John Asker, Nicole Immorlica, Mohammad Mahdian, Michael Ostrovsky, Parag Pathak, Fuhito Kojima, Robin Lee, Mihai Manea, Eric Budish, and Scott Kominers.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Muriel Niederle wins the 2021 Oskar Morgenstern Medal
Oskar Morgenstern medal for Muriel Niederle, September 24, 2021
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| Muriel Niederle from Stanford University is this year's winner of the Oskar Morgenstern Medal. (© Manuel Amador) |
"The Stanford professor receives the fifth Oskar Morgenstern medal
"The Faculty of Economics will award the Oskar Morgenstern Medal for the fifth time on October 7, 2021. This year's winner is Muriel Niederle, Levin Professor at Standford University and a leading expert in experimental economics and gender differences in competitive behavior in the labor market.
"Muriel Niederle is a Levin Professor in the School of Humanities in the Economics Department at Stanford University, California, and a leading global expert in experimental economics and market design. With her research on gender differences in competitive situations, Niederle made a significant contribution to the discussion about application behavior on the labor market. For her extensive research, Muriel Niederle, who studied at the University of Vienna and did her doctorate at Harvard, was awarded the Oskar Morgenstern Medal for outstanding research achievements in economics.
"Niederle's experiments on gender differences in competitive behavior are known internationally beyond the scientific community: Why women negotiate differently and what effects this behavior shows on the labor market, for example in salary negotiations, reported on, among others, by the Wall Street Journal, Forbes Magazine and The Atlantic. As one of the leading experts on gender equality and funding issues, Niederle is a sought-after speaker at international meetings and conferences. Her most cited works to date deal with norms of gender competition, such as "Do Women Shy away from Competition? Do Men Compete too Much?" (2007) in cooperation with Lise Vesterlund and "Performance in competitive environments: Gender differences" (2003) in cooperation with Uri Gneezy and Aldo Rustichini.
"The research focus on market design is dedicated to the question of how problems in non-self-regulating markets can be solved. Muriel Niederle carries out extensive studies and experiments in this area, for example on "Signaling in Matching Markets", a technique that is intended to bring companies and suitable applicants together more quickly.
"Muriel Niederle currently teaches at Stanford University in the fields of Experimental and Behavioral Economics and Gender.
"About the Oskar Morgenstern medal
"The Faculty of Economics is committed to conducting research at the highest level and promoting the reputation of top international research: The Oskar Morgenstern Medal, named after Oskar Morgenstern, co-founder of game theory and until 1938 professor at the University of Vienna, was awarded the title in 2013 Honoring the great Austrian economist and launched to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the faculty. The previous winners are Roger B. Myerson (2013), Robert F. Engle (2015), Ernst Fehr (2017) and Sir Christopher A. Pissarides (2019). The medal is endowed with 10,000 euros and is awarded by the faculty every two years.
"Martin Kocher, Federal Minister of Labor, will present the award with Dean Gerhard Sorger at the award ceremony.
"Awarding of the Oskar-Morgenstern-Medal and subsequent Celebratory Speech. Date: Thursday, October 7, 2021, 10:00 am - 11:30 am Location: Skylounge (12th floor), Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090 Vienna
"The event is due to of the Covid-19 measures take place on a small scale and by prior arrangement. Interested parties can be there via live stream: oskar-morgenstern-medaille.univie.ac.at/
******
And here's Muriel's webpage: Muriel Niederle
Monday, September 24, 2018
Are there too many interviews for medical residencies and fellowships? Should there be an interview Match?
September 21, 2018
Matching for Fellowship Interviews
Marc L. Melcher, MD, PhD; Itai Ashlagi, PhD; Irene Wapnir, MD
"Most surgical training programs interview many candidates because the consequences of not matching harms the reputation of the program and affects the work force of their services.5 Surveys of pediatric surgery program directors in 2011, 2012, and 2014 revealed that they interviewed a median of 24 to 30 candidates per year. However, the median rank at which the programs matched was less than 4, and programs never matched beyond their 12th choice, suggesting that they did not need to interview as many residents as they did.
...
"instituting an interview match may be one approach to help improve the interview selection process by reducing the large numbers of unfruitful and costly fellowship interviews. For example, Ashlagi et al7 found in a theoretical matching model that when candidates and programs each have highly heterogeneous preferences, limiting the number of interviews improved the efficiency of the matching process. Thus, fellowship interview matches represent an opportunity to reduce the excessive number of interviews and optimize the selection of applicants.
"A practical strategy that may achieve this goal is an interview match that precedes the existing match. After applications are submitted, candidates and programs submit rank lists that could be used to fill limited interview slots. Mechanisms that enable applicants and training programs to signal interest in each other have been proposed.4,7 By ranking candidates and programs highly, both essentially are respectively signaling their strong preference for each other.4 Therefore, fewer interviews might be sufficient for candidates and programs to identify mutually desirable matches and reduce the number and costs of interviews. If the program and candidate interview slots remain unfilled, a secondary match could be performed to fill unmatched interview slots.
...
"n conclusion, a well-designed interview match may help reduce excessive costly interviews while more efficiently pairing candidates and programs, so that both achieve as many highly ranked choices as possible. This strategy could be applied broadly to matching programs in other medical specialties and may be attractive at earlier career stages such as residency interviews."
************
And here's a related news story on the Stanford Medical School site:
The current fellowship interview process is cumbersome — Stanford researchers have a better idea
"In their fourth and fifth years, surgical residents are busy: They're caring for patients, assisting junior trainees and fulfilling their own training requirements. And that's not all: About 75 percent of these residents are scrambling to squeeze in interviews for fellowships across the country, often packing in between 6 and 15 interviews to ensure they secure a spot, Stanford transplant surgeon Marc Melcher, MD, PhD, told me.
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Peter Rousseau comments on our field experiment involving the Econ job market, in PNAS
My post yesterday was about the experiment about social media and the job market for economists. I only noticed later that the PNAS also posted a comment on our article, by Professor Peter Rousseau, the secretary of the American Economic Association, who has a long and intimate familiarity with that job market, which the AEA has played a giant role in organizing.
Improving the job market in economics (and beyond…) by Peter L. Rousseau PNAS May 4, 2026 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2609971123
Here is the part of his comment directly connected to our paper:
" the authors make a welcome and useful contribution to the market design literature with a fascinating experiment designed to substitute for and even improve upon the informal information channels lost to the economics job market in the new postpandemic normal. Given that some job candidates are less active self-promoters than others and that, conversely, excessive self-promotion can in some cases be viewed as a negative by prospective recruiters, the authors’ proposed mechanism offers serious promise for leveling the playing field, even if just modestly, for economics job candidates in terms of their visibilities, and perhaps even for expanding the number of jobs actually filled over the course of a recruiting season.
"In the experiment, an AI-based algorithm, supplemented with some human checking and reassignments, matched selected economists on social media (i.e., the “influencers”) with willing job candidates based on the closeness of their research. About 43 percent of willing candidates were selected for this treatment. The key to the experiment lies in the matches themselves, which were assigned in a manner that did not take the relative prominence or institutional ranking of an influencer directly into account. All candidate participants were invited to post a tweet about their job market papers on a social media site created for this purpose, and the influencers were asked to post neutral quote-tweets about the members of the treatment group to which they had been assigned. If executed according to design, recruiters viewing the quote-tweets receive information about the closeness of a given candidate’s research interests to those of the influencer. This may function as a partial substitute for the painstaking process of deducing such information across the hundreds of application packets that recruiters receive with only a brief period for making initial decisions. Knowing that a candidate’s research is close to that of Professor “X” is a tangible signal that could make that candidate more likely to be interviewed or receive a campus flyout or job offer from an institution seeking an entry-level economist like Professor X. The experiment indicates that individuals in the treatment group did indeed receive more campus visits and job offers than candidates assigned to the control group, and that the effect on job offers was especially strong for women. It also finds, however, that these effects were more pronounced for candidates matched to influencers with relatively higher citation counts than for those matched to influencers with relatively more followers, as these two measures of prominence in the profession are not that highly correlated.
" The question of scalability then becomes paramount. Considering the experiment’s positive findings, it is natural to assume that, if universally available, all job candidates would choose to participate and receive the treatment. The process would otherwise go on as stated with perhaps additional influencers being selected by the organizers to serve the larger pool of candidates. Two observations seem reasonable at this point: first, in such a setup, better information about matches could lead to more open positions being filled, which would be a better aggregate outcome; and second, the treatment might in practice benefit candidates from outside the very top departments the most. This is because candidates from the highest ranked departments, who are often perceived by recruiters as having a higher probability of eventually becoming a star, will typically receive more interviews, campus visits, and offers, but in the end can still only accept one offer. With an enlarged set of viable matches, this means that some candidates who may have been otherwise overlooked will find jobs. Of course, the job market may take longer to clear under this mechanism as candidates will have more options to consider before departments go to second or third rounds of offers.
"Casual observations of the job market among economics departments and their chairs do suggest that a number of recruiters are unable to fill positions they have posted. The AEA does not currently collect information on just how many, but the very existence of the “AEA Job Market Scramble,” where recruiters and unmatched candidates can post their availabilities on an online message board each March, is indicative of the challenge (3). The design of a job signaling mechanism by the AEA and its implementation in December of each year (4), where job candidates can list two departments to which they would like to express interest in an interview, is another such intervention aimed at easing the congestion.
Another interesting result is that women appear to benefit most from the treatment, while this benefit does not extend to members of other groups traditionally underrepresented in economics. The authors point to existing evidence indicating that women on average tend to be less active promoters of their own research on social media than others and suggest that the additional visibility provided by the quote-tweets could be leading to more job offers. This potential channel, of course, could also be viable for any candidate with a tendency to self-promote less. To explain a special advantage for women, one could note the possibility of forces in the 2022–2023 job market where departments seeking to improve the gender balances of their faculties became aware of candidates through the mechanism who they may have otherwise overlooked. If this is the case, the next question to ask is why does the effect not carry over for members of other underrepresented groups? The answer, though no doubt a speculative one, may lie in the preexistence of other mechanisms and informal channels for promoting such candidates, rendering the marginal effects of the authors’ particular intervention not statistically significant.
Finally, while having the potential to increase the number of matches and raise their average quality, the effects of the authors’ intervention will be subject to some randomness based on the assignment of a given candidate’s influencer. For example, when any influencer posts a quote-tweet about a candidate who has been independently and objectively determined to have close research interests, that candidate’s post tends to receive more views and likes on X than those in the control group, and the extent of this visibility correlates with the size of the influencer’s following. Yet these effects do not seem to transfer downstream to job outcomes, where candidates receiving quote-tweets from highly cited influencers are the ones tending to see more offers. In a real sense, the adage “all publicity is good publicity,” often applied to economics research, may not be always true. The assignment of influencers to candidates, even if randomized, will matter for individual outcomes even though the aggregate effects of the intervention are positive. Given the potential individual benefits compared to nontreatment, however, job candidates would likely embrace the residual uncertainty and participate in the mechanism.
"The intervention designed by Qiu et al. may hold even greater promise outside of the economics discipline. In the natural sciences, for example, recruiting for scarce academic postdoctoral positions among new PhDs at a similar career stage, which are markets typically saturated with candidates, often moves directly to a very limited allocation of campus visits based in no small part on letters and other communications from mentors, some of whom could be less than ideally matched with their students or less well known than would-be assigned influencers. These cases are ones in which an enhanced visibility of candidates, when coupled with independent information about the closeness of their work to what senior researchers and their groups might be seeking, could lead to the greater advancement of science more generally.
:
"Competing interests P.L.R. has served since 2012 as Secretary-Treasurer of the American Economic Association, a 501(c)(3) non-profit deeply committed to improving the job market for new Ph.D. economists, and for which one of the companion article’s co-authors (A. E. Roth) served as President in 2017.
#######
Peter's comment and our paper appeared online, but won't appear in print until next week in the May 12, 2026 | vol. 123 | no. 19 issue of PNAS.
Yesterday's post:
Tuesday, May 5, 2026 Social media, job market outcomes, and ethics of field experiments, by Qiu, Chen, Cohn and Roth in PNAS
