Monday, January 15, 2024

Matching and market design in the latest GEB (stack overflow...)

 The current (January 2024) issue of Games and Economic Behavior presents an increasingly common dilemma (faced by scholars in burgeoning fields, and maybe by aging scholars...). Papers I should read are being written much faster than I can read them.

Here are 9 papers in that issue that are pretty clearly about matching and market design (which leaves out some papers on auctions and one on unraveling of the timing of markets) :

  1. Obvious manipulations of tops-only voting rules

    Pages 12-24
    View PDF
  2. Rejection-proof mechanisms for multi-agent kidney exchange

    Pages 25-50
    View PDF

Sunday, January 14, 2024

"Why Is There So Much Fraud in Academia?" Freakonomics interviews Max Bazerman and others

Below is the latest Freakonomics podcast (and transcript), on fraud in academia.  Those most in the headlines weren't available to be interviewed, but their coauthor (and my longtime HBS colleague) Max Bazerman gives his perspective.

Also interviewed are the Data Colada authors/data sleuths Leif Nelson Uri Simonsohn, and Joe Simmons (with some clues about the name of their blog), and Brian Nosek, who founded the prizewinning Center for Open Science (https://www.cos.io/ 

Here it is:

Why Is There So Much Fraud in Academia?  Some of the biggest names in behavioral science stand accused of faking their results. Freakonomics EPISODE 572.

######

And here are two paragraphs from Max's HBS web page (linked above), suggesting more to come:

"I have been connected to one of the most salient episodes of data fabrication in the history of social science – involving the signing first effect alluded to above. I am working on understanding all known social science frauds in this millennium. Social science also struggles with a broader problem, namely the fact that many studies fail to replicate due to faulty research practices that have become common in social science. Most replication failures can be traced back to the original researchers twisting their data to conform to their predictions, rather than from outright fraud. Trying to produce “significant” results, they may run a study multiple times, in a variety of ways, then selectively report the tests that worked and fail to report those that didn’t. The result is the publication of conclusions that do not hold up as accurate. Both problems – outright data fabrication and this reporting bias that shapes results – need to be tackled, so all of us in academia can publish results that are replicable and can help create value in society.

         "The last dozen years have witnessed multiple efforts to reform social science research to make it more credible, reproducible, and trusted. I am writing a book on reforming social science, which will provide an account of recent data fabrications, and highlight strategies to move forward to create more credible and impactful scientific research."

Saturday, January 13, 2024

The Everything Token. By Steve Kaczynski and Scott Duke Kominers

 Here's a look into a possible future of the web (but it's still available in hardcover):

The Everything Token.  HOW NFTS AND WEB3 WILL TRANSFORM THE WAY WE BUY, SELL, AND CREATE.  By Steve Kaczynski and Scott Duke Kominers

"A Harvard Business School professor and a16z crypto research partner and a career marketer and Web3 entrepreneur demystify the coming digital revolution, showing how NFTs will transform our online and offline interactions."

“NFTs were a mystery to me. Thanks to this book, both the economics of NFTs and how businesses can use them are now in sharp focus and no longer mysterious. It helps, too, that the book was so much fun to read!”

— Paul Milgrom, Shirley and Leonard Ely Professor of Humanities and Sciences at Stanford University and Nobel Laureate in Economics"


“You can’t ask for savvier or more enthusiastic guides to the potential of NFTs than Kaczynski and Kominers.”
— Alvin E. Roth, Craig and Susan McCaw Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Nobel Laureate in Economics

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Earlier: 

Friday, January 12, 2024

Medical aid in dying, and slippery slopes--the debate in Britain

 The Oxford blog Practical Ethics considers medical aid in dying (MAID), and the slippery slope arguments that accompany current debates on the subject in Britain.

Medical assistance in dying: what are we talking about? By Alberto Giubilini, Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics

"Medical assistance in dying  – or “MAiD”,  to use the somehow infelicitous acronym – is likely to be a central topic in bioethics this year. That might not be true of bioethics as an academic field, where MAiD has been widely discussed over the past 40 years. But it is likely true of bioethics as a wider societal and political area of discussion. There are two reasons to think this.  First, the topic has attracted a lot of attention the last year, especially with “slippery slope” concerns around Canada’s policies. Second, MAiD has recently been in the news in the UK, where national elections will take place in 2024.  It is not hard to imagine it will feature in the heated political polarization that always accompanies election campaigns

...

"Canada is often taken as the best example in support of ‘slippery slope’ arguments against legalizing MAiD. According to these arguments, even assuming MAiD was acceptable in some form, legalization would open the door to clearly wrong or problematic practices down the line. For instance, legalizing physician-assisted suicide in cases of “unbearable suffering” for someone whose death is reasonably foreseeable in the short term might lead to relaxing our attitudes towards MAiD for those suffering only from mental illness. In the bioethics literature, slippery slope arguments against MAiD have often been put forward and traditionally been dismissed as fallacious, overly cautious, or easily addressable (for an overview and a critical appraisal, see Fumagalli 2020).  However, contrary to the prevailing view, they are not necessarily fallacious in nature (Walton 1992). To many people, Canada is a case in point, calling for a more nuanced take.

"Canada started off by decriminalizing medical assistance in dying in 2016. In 2019, the Superior Court of Quebec found the “reasonable foreseeability of natural death” unconstitutional as an eligibility criterion for MAiD. The criterion was removed in 2021, making MAiD available for patients without terminal illness. From March 2024, patients suffering solely from mental illness will also be able to legally access MAiD. According to Government data, nearly 45,000 people died through MAiD in Canada from 2016 to 2022. Between 2020 and 2022, the number of requests for MAiD increased on average by 28% per year. At the same time, the number of patients found ineligible consistently declined from 8% in 2019 to 3.4% in 2022.

...

"One question is about whether suicide is morally permissible. As mentioned, many religious  and non religious views consider suicide in most cases morally impermissible. However, the moral impermissibility of suicide is not a decisive reason against legalizing MAiD. More important is whether suicide is a right and, if so, what type of right it is. That is a different type of question, because arguably we often have the right to do morally wrong things (Waldron 1982). I might have a right to kill myself even if suicide is morally wrong.

...

"I have not provided any answer to any of these questions here. I just want to point out that some of the differences in ethical and religious views about suicide or about the right to end one’s own life are less relevant to a debate on MAiD than one might initially assume.

"At the same time, many concerns around slippery slopes are more relevant than one might initially assume. As a matter of fact and of logic, MAiD legislations tend to expand by extending their eligibility criteria. When debating MAiD legislations, we need to ask if we are prepared for that."

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Slippery slope

 A slippery slope is a metaphor sometimes used to oppose a change that may seem good in itself, but might lead to further changes that we would regret.  The metaphor is that we are perched on a high plateau, and any attempt to move higher might (even if initially successful), cause us to plunge into the abyss.

The perspective is different if instead we're at a low place, trying to get higher, but we keep backsliding because the slope is slippery.



Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Pope Francis calls for a ban on surrogacy

 The Catholic Church has long opposed in-vitro fertilization (IVF), one of the technological tools that allows surrogacy, on the grounds that IVF produces more embryos than are brought to term as babies, and so is comparable to abortion.*  But this week, during his annual "state of the world" foreign policy speech, Pope Francis made clear that he thinks surrogacy should additionally be banned because of the presence of "commercial contracts." 

Here's the story from the National Catholic Register:

Pope Francis Calls Surrogacy ‘Deplorable,’ Calls for Global Ban in Speech to Ambassadors

"Pope Francis called surrogacy “deplorable” and called for a global ban on the exploitative practice of “so-called surrogate motherhood” in a speech to all of the world’s ambassadors to the Vatican on Monday.

“The path to peace calls for respect for life, for every human life, starting with the life of the unborn child in the mother’s womb, which cannot be suppressed or turned into an object of trafficking,” Pope Francis said Jan. 8.

In this regard, I deem deplorable the practice of so-called surrogate motherhood, which represents a grave violation of the dignity of the woman and the child, based on the exploitation of situations of the mother’s material needs. A child is always a gift and never the basis of a commercial contract.”

"The Pope then called on the international community to prohibit the practice of surrogacy universally."

##########

The United States Conference of Catholic Bishops reiterates the main point in this quote from its spokesperson:

Statement of USCCB on Holy Father’s Remarks on Surrogacy, January 8, 2024

“As Pope Francis stated, with surrogacy, an unborn child is turned into ‘an object of trafficking’ because it exploits the birth mother’s material needs and makes the child the product of a commercial contract. This is why the Catholic Church teaches that the practice of surrogacy is not morally permissible. Instead, we should pray for, and work towards, a world that upholds the profound dignity of every person, at every stage and in every circumstance of life.”

##########

And here's the story in the NYT:

Francis Urges Ban on Surrogacy, Calling It ‘Despicable’  The pope said that an unborn child must not be “turned into an object of trafficking,” expanding his condemnation of a practice already illegal in Italy and some other European countries.  By Jason Horowitz

"Pope Francis on Monday called surrogate motherhood a “despicable” practice that should be universally banned for its “commercialization” of pregnancy, including the practice among wars, terrorism and other threats to peace and humanity in an annual speech to ambassadors.

...

"Surrogacy is already illegal in Italy and compensated surrogacy is also illegal or restricted in much of Europe. The United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Portugal and several other nations allow surrogacy under certain conditions. Paid surrogacy is legal in some European nations, including Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.

"Surrogate mothers in the United States and Canada are often hired by Europeans, including same-sex couples, seeking to have children..."

##########

Earlier:

Wednesday, April 5, 2023  Surrogacy under siege in Italy



#########
Update: here's the Pope's full speech (in English) from the Vatican Press Office:

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Brain death for organ donation, and its relation to controversy about abortion

 Here's a summary of the current discussion of brain death (and its possible connection to the debate on whether a fetus is a living person), in JAMA. Maybe it will reach some resolution this year...

Truog, Robert D., and David C.  Magnus. The Unsuccessful Effort to Revise the Uniform Determination of Death Act. JAMA. 2023;330(24):2335–2336. doi:10.1001/jama.2023.24475

"In 1968, a Harvard committee proposed a new approach for determining death, one based on the irreversible loss of neurological functions.1 This concept was instantiated into law in 1980 when the Uniform Law Commission endorsed The Uniform Determination of Death Act.2 The act, which a large majority of states have adopted in whole or with some variations, says, in part, that an individual is dead if the individual has sustained (1) irreversible cessation of circulatory and respiratory functions, or (2) irreversible cessation of all functions of the entire brain, including the brain stem. A determination of death must be made in accordance with accepted medical standards.

"In 2020, the commission was asked to consider updating the act, based in part on concerns that the act does not fully align with current medical practice.3 A draft of its revision was presented and discussed at the commission’s annual meeting on July 26, 2023.4 Herein, we summarize the major issues that led to the decision to draft a revision, the alternatives that were considered, why there was failure to reach consensus, and what this means for the future.

"The Uniform Determination of Death Act defines neurological death, commonly known as brain death, as the complete absence of all functions of the entire brain. The current diagnostic criteria, however, test for only a subset of brain functions, and most notably do not include testing for neurosecretory hypothalamic functions, which are retained by many patients who have been diagnosed as brain dead.5 In addition, the law requires the “irreversible” cessation of biological functions, whereas in practice the standard has been “permanence,” with the distinction being that irreversible implies that the function cannot be restored, whereas permanence means that the function will not be restored because no attempt will be made to do so.

...

"n order for medical practice to be in compliance with the law, the commissioners considered either changing the guidelines to conform with the law, or changing the law to conform with the guidelines. Under the first approach, the guidelines would require physicians to diagnose the irreversible cessation of all brain functions, not just selected functions. This would be challenging, given the difficulty of detecting and measuring all of the brain’s many functions. Alternatively, the law could be revised to be coherent with current practice guidelines. At the annual meeting of the Uniform Law Commission, the committee considered the following draft alternative to the existing Uniform Determination of Death Act4: “An individual is dead if the individual has sustained: (1) permanent cessation of circulatory and respiratory functions; or (2) permanent (A) coma, (B) cessation of spontaneous respiratory functions, and (C) loss of brainstem reflexes.”

"This proposal would harmonize the law with the practice guidelines. Instead of requiring the absence of all brain functions, this revision would have required only the absence of specific brain functions, namely the capacity for consciousness and spontaneous respiration.

"The proposed revision also would have replaced the requirement for irreversible cessation with permanent cessation, thereby anticipating the trajectory of new developments in resuscitation research, including work demonstrating the potential for restoration of neuronal function in brains, even many hours after the loss of brain perfusion.6 Using the permanence standard, death can be determined in these patients on the grounds that function will not be restored rather than the requirement that it cannot be restored.

"Finally, the proposed revision also included a section that would have required hospitals to respect the refusal of patients or their surrogates to having death determined by neurological criteria. This position was supported by various constituencies, including the Catholic Medical Association, as well as several of the Uniform Law Commission commissioners, who saw it as a way to respect the diversity of opinions surrounding the determination of death while still supporting the concept of brain death. At the same time, this approach was strongly condemned by most mainstream physician and transplant organizations, given the burden that it would place on hospitals and intensive care units and its potential negative impact on organ procurement.

...

"in an email on September 22, 2023, the committee leadership announced that they had decided to pause the process, saying that “although we will continue to hope mid-level principles will become apparent, no further drafting committee meetings will be scheduled at this time.”

"Perhaps this outcome could have been predicted from the beginning, given the polarization that has evolved in the US around issues at the beginning and end of life. Commissioner James Bopp emphasized these connections in asserting that the controversies around brain death and abortion are an “identical debate, just in a different context.”7

###########

Earlier:

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Monday, January 8, 2024

"Scraping poison off the bone": Transplants in China without organs from executed prisoners

 Following a long period in which the bulk of China's organ transplants used organs from executed prisoners, there have been steady efforts to create a system of voluntary deceased donation comparable to that in most of the world where transplants are done.

Global Times has the latest bit of that evolving story:

China’s organ donation to be more transparent under newly issued rules By Zhao Yusha and Zhang Yuying   Dec 15, 2023

"Chinese Premier Li Qiang has signed a decree of the State Council to unveil rules on human organ donation and transplantation, media reported on Thursday, with Chinese experts noting that the country’s organ donations will be more transparent under the regulation, which reflects great determination in China's organ donation reform. 

The newly issued rules, which will take effect on May 1, 2024, have been refined from the ones on human organ transplantation issued in 2007 to meet the demands of changing situations and ensure the healthy development of the cause, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

The rules strengthen the publicity and guidance of organ donation. Besides, the regulations stipulate that organ donation must adhere to the principles of voluntary and unpaid participation, and the conditions and procedures of donation should be improved based on the Civil Code. 

...

"China’s organ donations will be more transparent under the newly issued rules, Huang Jiefu, chairman of China Human Organ Donation and Transplantation Committee and chair of the China Organ Transplant Development Foundation Advisory Board, told the Global Times on Thursday.

"Huang noted that the revision of the rules shows the great determination in China's organ donation reform, which he described as scraping poison off the bone. “The regulations reflect the importance the Party and country attach to organ donation, which provides a strong legal guarantee for the high-quality development of organ donation cause.” 

"According to the rules, the application management of organ transplantation technologies should be improved to ensure medical quality. Specifically speaking, the rules define the conditions that medical institutions and practicing physicians must possess when engaging in organ transplantation, and require regular evaluation of the clinical application capabilities of relevant technologies in medical institutions. 

...

"In addition, the rules improve related provisions on legal liabilities and strengthen the punishment of malpractice in the field, Xinhua reported.

"Experts said the new rules call for more people to get involved in organ donations and transplants, and it is hoped that China's organ transplantation technology will spread to more countries in the future."

********

Here (in Chinese, but with Google Translate) is the announcement from Xinhua News Agency

李强签署国务院令 公布《人体器官捐献和移植条例》"Li Qiang signed a State Council order announcing the "Regulations on Human Organ Donation and Transplantation"

[The new regulations] "stipulate that patients whose spouses, direct blood relatives and other relatives have donated deceased organs can apply for organ transplantation , priority is given to them under the same conditions. 

...

"Ethical review requirements before organ harvesting will be refined, and the witnessing procedures for harvesting organs from deceased persons will be stipulated. Improve the cadaver organ distribution system, stipulate that the distribution of cadaver organs should meet medical needs, follow the principles of fairness, impartiality, and openness, and distribute uniformly through the distribution system established by the health department of the State Council. It is required to regularly announce the donation and distribution of cadaver organs and accept social supervision.

...

"In addition, relevant provisions on legal liability have been improved, penalties have been increased, and illegal activities in the field of organ donation and transplantation have been severely cracked down on.

  "(Authorized release) Order No. 767 of the State Council of the People's Republic of China

  "(Authorized release) Regulations on Human Organ Donation and Transplantation"


HT: Michelle Miao

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Market Design for Surface Water , by Ferguson and Milgrom

 The potential market for surface water is a market in which any transfer of rights involves externalities affecting the water consumption of others.

Market Design for Surface Water  by Billy A. Ferguson & Paul Milgrom, NBER WORKING PAPER 32010, DOI 10.3386/w32010, December 2023

Abstract: Many proposed surface water transfers undergo a series of regulatory reviews designed to mitigate hydrological and economic externalities. While these reviews help limit externalities, they impose substantial transaction costs that also limit trade. To promote a well-functioning market for surface water in California, we describe how a new kind of water right and related regulatory practices can balance the trade-off between externalities and transaction costs, and how a Water Incentive Auction can incentivize a sufficient number of current rights holders to swap their old rights for the new ones. The Water Incentive Auction adapts lessons learned from the US government’s successful Broadcast Incentive Auction.

From the introduction:

"Why is there so little water trading in California despite the heterogeneous uses and huge price differences? The consensus among many economists studying water is that much of the problem lies in an archaic system of property rights, which was perhaps simple and clear enough to function well when California was first settled, but which is dysfunctional today. We will argue below that trading in traditional water rights creates externalities, so efficiency-enhancing changes in water allocations cannot be achieved by exhausting profitable bilateral trades. Rather, it requires a coordinated, multilateral effort. The next section on the Institutional Background provides a description of water rights and the externalities that can result from trade or from certain other decisions about uses. What is most novel in this paper comes after that: we analyze a mechanism that enacts a change in water rights that could lead to much more efficient trade.

Our analysis draws on lessons learned from the US Broadcast Incentive Auction in 2016-17, in which some rights to use radio spectrum for television broadcast were combined, converted, and subdivided into more flexible rights that were better suited for wireless broadband communications. This was accomplished using an auction procedure designed to provide an “incentive” for broadcasters to participate. As in that auction, participation in an analogous Water Rights Incentive Auction could be entirely voluntary, with current water users incentivized to participate because they could trade their existing rights for new, more flexible rights and possibly additional payments as determined by an auction. Just as the Broadcast Incentive Auction achieved its goals described in the National Broadband Plan even though many broadcasters chose not to sell their rights, a Water Incentive Auction could provide the substantial benefits of more flexible water rights even if many water users decline to participate. We describe some details of a possible Water Incentive Auctions in a later section of this paper."

Saturday, January 6, 2024

Matching Markets and Inequality, in Exeter in June: call for papers

 Here's the announcement and call for papers:

Matching Markets and Inequality Workshop, Department of Economics University of Exeter Business School June 20-21, 2024

Keynote speakers: Pierre-André ChiapporiLeeat YarivChristopher Neilson