Playing dirty on Polymarket--Insider trading on information, and on manipulation

Here are news reports on two kinds of insider trading on prediction markets: predicting what you are (or someone close to you is) going to do, or predicting a measurement you can control.

From the NYT:

Soldier Used Classified Information to Bet on Maduro’s Ouster, U.S. Says
Federal prosecutors say that Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was involved in the operation to oust Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela, used the information to place bets on a prediction market. By Benjamin Weiser and Jonah E. Bromwich
 

"A U.S. Army special forces soldier who helped capture Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela has been charged with using classified information to bet on the mission on Polymarket, a prediction marketplace, federal authorities said on Thursday.

"The soldier, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, made more than $400,000 by betting on different outcomes related to Venezuela after learning of the operation, federal prosecutors and the F.B.I. said. "

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And from the WSJ: 

Unusual weather bets on Polymarket spur French investigation by Alexander Osipovich, Sam Schechner 

 "France’s national weather service is investigating irregularities at a monitoring station at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport after it reported anomalous temperature spikes. The spikes led to lucrative payoffs for some traders on Polymarket, the crypto-based betting platform.

...

"Every day, Polymarket lists contracts that allow its users to bet on the maximum temperature in dozens of cities worldwide. Its Paris contract is based on the reading at Charles de Gaulle airport, as reported by Weather Underground, an online weather data provider.

"On April 15, the temperature in Paris had reached 18 degrees Celsius in the afternoon and was cooling down in the evening when the airport gauge showed a brief, unexplained jump, hitting 22 degrees Celsius at 9:30 p.m. local time, Weather Underground data shows. Other nearby weather stations didn’t show a similar spike. 

"Just before the anomaly, xX25Xx placed cheap, long-shot bets on Polymarket that the maximum temperature in Paris that day wouldn’t be 18 degrees Celsius, when other bettors were more than 99% sure that the day’s top temperature would remain at that level.

"The airport weather station also registered a temperature spike around 7 p.m. on April 6. That day, a Polymarket account with username “Hoaqin” made nearly $14,000 in profit by betting that Paris temperatures would peak at 21 degrees Celsius, Polymarket data shows. Temperatures at Charles de Gaulle had been hovering at around 18 degrees in the late afternoon, according to Weather Underground data. 

... 

"In March, an Israeli journalist said he had received death threats from Polymarket bettors demanding that he revise his article about an Iranian missile strike on March 10. The details of his article were used to settle bets on whether Iran had carried out a missile, drone or airstrike that day.

"Soon after the incident, Polymarket explicitly prohibited insider trading and market manipulation on its international platform for the first time. The amended rules state that Polymarket users can’t trade contracts where they can influence the outcome of the underlying event.

"A similar prohibition is in place in regulated prediction markets such as Polymarket’s main competitor, Kalshi, as well as at Polymarket’s new U.S. platform. "

Organ donation after euthanasia in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, not only is it legal to receive medical aid in dying (MAID), but  a growing number of MAID patients are able to successfully achieve their desire to become deceased organ donors.

 From the American Journal of Transplantation:

 Wijbenga, N., Gan, C.T., Ruigrok, D., Berg, E.M., Hagenaars, J.A.M., Siregar, S., van der Kaaij, N.P., Mathot, B.J., van Pel, R., Seghers, L. and Manintveld, O.C., 2026. The Increasing Contribution of Organ Donation after Euthanasia to the Lung Transplantation Donor Pool in the Netherlands. American Journal of Transplantation. 

 "Abstract: The number of organ donation after euthanasia (ODE) procedures in the Netherlands has grown substantially, yet their contribution to the lung-donor pool remains unclear. There is no clinical consensus on how these potential ODE lung-donors should be assessed. We aimed to describe the total contribution of ODE to the lung-donor pool in the Netherlands and describe the assessment of potential ODE lung-donors.
We collected data from all ODE procedures performed between 2012-2024 in the Netherlands. We assessed the number of ODE-lungs offered, rejected, accepted, and transplanted, comparing characteristics of discarded and transplanted lungs.
Of 1166 lung-donor, 664(60%) were DCD donors of which 154(23%) were ODE lung-donors. The total proportion of donor lungs from ODE lung-donors acceptable to offer for lung transplantation was 117 of which 104 (89%) were transplanted. Evaluation prior to donation was highly variable, with medical history and chest CT most affecting acceptance decisions. Short-term outcomes were excellent, with 1-year survival of 84%.
Our findings indicate that ODE lung donors are increasingly important in the Netherlands, with high acceptance rates, despite highly variable evaluation methods. Standardizing the assessment of potential ODE lung donors could further improve acceptance rates and enhance the contribution of ODE to the lung-donor pool."

Moral Economics, on the Passion Struck podcast

In the run up to the May publication date, I've been interviewed on a variety of podcasts about my book Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work.  Here's one from the podcast Passion Struck: Nobel Laureate Alvin Roth: How Incentives Shape Your Life | EP 757

 

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Earlier:

Wednesday, April 22, 2026   Moral Economics, on the Armchair Expert podcast

Below is a one minute bit excerpted from the Armchair Expert interview, on why it's easy to buy drugs, but hard to hire a hitman: 

The Difference Between Hitmen and Dealers

 

Moral Economics, on the Armchair Expert podcast

At the Armchair Expert podcast, Dax Shepard interviewed me in anticipation of the May publication of my book Moral Economics: From Prostitution to Organ Sales, What Controversial Transactions Reveal About How Markets Work  

 

Here's the video (which was recorded last month at their studio in LA): 

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Market Design and Kidney Exchange at NTHU: Public Lecture in Taiwan (video)

 Here is a video of a public lecture I gave at National Tsing Hua University (NTHU) in Taiwan.

It begins at around 13:40 (and if I've done it right, the version below should start around there), and the Q&A starts around 1:15:00 

 

Lund University anticipates EU-wide kidney exchange, and celebrates Tommy Andersson

European kidney exchange is making progress:)

 Kidney Transplants Save Lives, Cut Taxpayer Costs   Lund University
Sweden's kidney exchange programme has been operational since 2018 and will soon be expanded to include the entire EU. The programme has meant that patients' previous waiting times of up to two years have been reduced to just six months.

"Tommy Andersson, Professor of Economics at Lund University School of Economics and Management, never imagined his research would one day lead to this-but his joy, pride, and commitment are unmistakable.

"Thirteen years ago, we began the planning phase in Sweden, and in 2019 we expanded to Denmark, and later to Finland, Iceland, and Norway. The programme is called STEP (Scandiatransplant Exchange Programme). Now, in 2026, there is a consensus on how kidney exchanges should be conducted across the entire EU, and almost all the pieces of the puzzle are in place for us to launch the pilot project during 2026," says Tommy Andersson.

WATCH FILM (in Swedish): "The Economist Saving Lives" -  

Tommy Andersson was involved from the start, developing the algorithms that make the kidney exchange programme in Sweden possible. In cases where a family member can donate a kidney, the transplant can occur directly. However, if the donor's kidney does not match the patient, the exchange programme becomes vital. The programme enables matching across Scandinavia and soon across the entire EU." 

New Chinese edition of Who Gets What and Why

 There's a new (October, 2025) Chinese edition of my 2015 book Who Gets What ― and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design.  It's the same translation as the first edition, with a new (improved) title, closer to the English.  This is the simplified character version, distributed on the mainland.

 

 

The 2016 traditional character translation is still in use in Taiwan:

 

 

Funeral expenses for deceased organ donors in Taiwan

 In Taiwan, the Ministry of Health and Welfare helps pay for the funerals of deceased organ donors.

 From the Taiwan Organ Sharing Registry and Patient Autonomy Promotion Center

(2)  Grants and Assistance for Donors' Families

a.        Funeral Subsidies:
The MOHW provides funeral subsidies to the donor's family, including NT$50,000 for corneal donations and NT$100,000 for multiple organ donations in addition to the cornea.

b.        Farewell Care Service:
In order to express our gratitude to the organ donors and their families, we provided flower baskets and certificates of appreciation at the farewell ceremony of the donors. In addition to affirming the selfless dedication of the organ donors, we also thanked the family members for their decision. 

The diffusion of space warfare: commercial satellites play a role in (everyone's) battlefield intelligence

There's now a vibrant market for real-time commercial satellite photos.  

Defense One has the story from the Persian Gulf:

US must adjust to Iran’s use of commercial satellite photos, Space Command says CENTCOM’s declaration of “space superiority” hasn’t prevented Tehran from putting space to use.
By Thomas Novelly

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado—Iran’s use of commercial space imagery to strike U.S. and allied targets will force the Pentagon to adjust, the head of U.S. Space Command said.

“We have to recognize that the rest of the world can now see the entire planet transparently and almost 24/7 and so we have to be able to operate in that environment successfully,” Gen. Stephen Whiting, the head of U.S. Space Command told reporters Tuesday during the Space Symposium conference here. "