Mail order catalogs, downtown department stores, suburban malls, and modern home delivery

 Here's a 10 minute video in which I discuss how retail markets have changed over the last century and more, with the invention of mail order catalogs, and the growth of downtown department stores (in part as a result of urban public transportation), and then suburban shopping malls, before our current age of digital commerce and home delivery.

This was my discussion of talks by Rob Townsend and David Autor at the October zoom conference

Technology and Equality in the Digital Era--Luohan Academy

Another mail order catalog throws in the towel (Sic transit gloria mundi .)

 The mail order catalogs of Sears Roebuck and Montgomery Ward were as innovative in the late 1800's as Amazon is today, bringing retail shopping to customers who otherwise had relatively little access to the wide variety of goods available in major cities.  Those catalogs lasted more than a century before giving way to other business models.

Now, IKEA is discontinuing its catalog.  The WSJ has the story:

The IKEA Catalog Defined Home for Millions. Now It’s Gone.  Flat-pack giant says it will discontinue publication of the book as readership declines  By Saabira Chaudhuri

"IKEA’s decision to stop publishing its annual catalog marks the end of a tome that served as much as an aspirational lifestyle guide for millions as it did a marketing tool for the flat-pack furniture giant.

"After 70 years, the catalog had become a relic in the digital age, the company said, calling the decision “emotional but rational.” The 2020 edition, which was sent out earlier this year, will be the last. The catalog will also no longer be published online.

"Like an international version of the Sears catalog, which ceased publication in 1993, the IKEA book sold not only housewares, but a lifestyle."

Do cashless stores hamper access by the poor?

Are cashless stores discriminatory?  There's concern about that in Philadelphia, Massachusetts and elswhere.  The WSJ has the story:

Philadelphia Is First U.S. City to Ban Cashless Stores
Lawmakers move to maintain access to marketplace for lower-income consumers; Amazon and other businesses express concern about limits on innovation

"Philadelphia is the first major U.S. city to ban cashless stores, placing it at the forefront of a debate that pits retail innovation against lawmakers trying to protect all citizens’ access to the marketplace.

"Starting in July, Philadelphia’s new law will require most retail stores to accept cash. A New York City councilman is pushing similar legislation there, and New Jersey’s legislature recently passed a bill banning cashless stores statewide. A spokesman for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, declined to comment on whether he would sign it. Massachusetts has gone the farthest on the issue and is the only state that requires retailers to accept cash.
...
"Businesses that have gone cashless point to greater efficiency for employees, who don’t have to make change or count cash at closing time, and improved safety because workers don’t have to carry large bank deposits.

"But backers of measures forcing stores to accept cash say they worry about people who don’t have credit or debit cards. Supporters also say some consumers prefer to pay with currency for privacy reasons.

“I think it’s more the future than a fad, and that’s why there is a need for a legislative response,” said New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat, who is sponsoring legislation to ban cashless stores."
**********

See also:
San Francisco could ban Amazon’s cashier-free stores
"San Francisco is considering a ban on cashless Amazon stores as it weighs a bill that would make it one of a growing list of cities forbidding cashless retailers.

Just this week, New Jersey followed Philadelphia’s lead in signing into law a cashless store ban. Lawmakers argue that cashless stores can effectively discriminate against low-income consumers, who may not have a bank account or credit card. But businesses say going cashless is good for consumers and reduces the risk of robbery and the ability to evade taxes."

Brand names and informed consumers--pharmacists seem to like generic drugs

Here's an illuminating look at the economics of brands, as in brand-name products, when there are close substitutes available.

"Do Pharmacists Buy Bayer? Sophisticated Shoppers and the Brand Premium" 
Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 14-17
by BART J. BRONNENBERG,  JEAN-PIERRE H. DUBE,  MATTHEW GENTZKOW,  JESSE M. SHAPIRO

We estimate the effect of information on consumers’ willingness to pay for branded goods in physically homogeneous consumer packaged goods categories. In a case study of headache remedies, we find that college education, working in a healthcare occupation, and other proxies for product knowledge predict more purchases of private labels relative to brands. Pharmacists devote almost 90 percent of headache remedy purchases to private labels, against 71 percent for the average consumer. The effect of knowledge is similar across a broad set of health products, and in a set of relatively homogeneous food products, but smaller for food and drink products overall. We conclude that a significant share of the willingness to pay for brands in these categories would disappear in a world where consumers were fully informed.

The evolution of eBay

Once eBay was primarily an auction site...a story by Jeff Himmelman in the NY Times Sunday magazine brings us up to date: EBay’s Strategy for Taking On Amazon

"Most people think of eBay as an online auction house, the world’s biggest garage sale, which it has been for most of its life. But since Donahoe took over in 2008, he has slowly moved the company beyond auctions, developing technology partnerships with big retailers like Home Depot, Macy’s, Toys ‘‘R’’ Us and Target and expanding eBay’s online marketplace to include reliable, returnable goods at fixed prices. (Auctions currently represent just 30 percent of the purchases made at eBay.com; the site sells 13,000 cars a week through its mobile app alone, many at fixed prices.)

Under Donahoe, eBay has made 34 acquisitions over the last five years, most of them to provide the company and its retail partners with enhanced technology. EBay can help with the back end of websites, create interactive storefronts in real-world locations, streamline the electronic-payment process or help monitor inventory in real time. (Outsourcing some of the digital strategy and technological operations to eBay frees up companies to focus on what they presumably do best: Make and market their own products.) In select cities, eBay has also recently introduced eBay Now, an app that allows you to order goods from participating local vendors and have them delivered to your door in about an hour for a $5 fee. The company is betting its future on the idea that its interactive technology can turn shopping into a kind of entertainment, or at least make commerce something more than simply working through price-plus-shipping calculations. If eBay can get enough people into Dick’s Sporting Goods to try out a new set of golf clubs and then get them to buy those clubs in the store, instead of from Amazon, there’s a business model there.

A key element of eBay’s vision of the future is the digital wallet. On a basic level, having a ‘‘digital wallet’’ means paying with your phone, but it’s about a lot more than that; it’s as much a concept as a product. EBay bought PayPal in 2002, after PayPal established itself as a safe way to transfer money between people who didn’t know each other (thus facilitating eBay purchases). For the last several years, eBay has regarded digital payments through mobile devices as having the potential to change everything — to become, as David Marcus, PayPal’s president, puts it, ‘‘Money 3.0.’’'
...
"The best current example of the digital wallet’s promise, according to many in Silicon Valley, is Uber, a digital platform that connects riders and drivers. You enter your credit-card information into the Uber app once, and then every time you want to use it, the app knows where you are and shows you how many cars are nearby and how soon one can be available. You order with one touch on a mobile screen, and a text lets you know a driver is on the way and then another tells you when he’s near. He greets you by name, you tell him where you want to go and then, when you are dropped off, there is no further exchange — no tip, no receipt, no signing anything. The app takes care of all that for you. Uber didn’t change anything about the nature of cars or how they are driven. It just figured out how to use data and technology to make what was out there work much more efficiently. (EBay, through its acquisition of the company Shutl, has begun to exploit a similar inefficiency in the spare capacity of courier companies.)
...
"‘‘It’s not about payment,’’ Jack Dorsey, a founder of Square, a PayPal competitor, says. ‘‘It’s about identity. And it’s about the experience that a merchant can create, which is what actually builds loyalty. We believe that it’s important that the technology, the mechanics of payments, actually fade away to the background. They disappear completely.’’ After helping found Twitter in 2006, Dorsey became chief executive of Square in 2009. Its initial innovation was the Square Reader, a small device that plugs into the headphone jack of a smartphone or tablet and enables anyone, anywhere, to process a credit-card payment. (PayPal now has a similar reader.) In 2011, Square introduced what would become known as the Square Wallet, an app that links to a credit card (as Uber does) and allows consumers to pay either by holding their phones up to a scanner or, in some cases, simply by having the phones on in their pockets. Dorsey talks about how cool it is to get your coffee without having to do anything, but he also emphasizes what it means for the merchants. ‘‘The seller gets this very interesting tool,’’ he says. ‘‘They can recognize me when I walk in.’’ 

Returning items at stores in the US and Europe: two different equilibria?

A recent article about the policies adopted by American stores regarding returns, particularly of gifts, has gotten me thinking about the different equilbria which (I am under the impression) exist in Europe and the U.S.

Most U.S. stores have a no questions asked return policy. Subject to some limitations, you can return an item, for any reason, i.e. it doesn't have to be broken. The limitations may include things like time elapsed since purchase, whether the item has been used, etc. But policies are more lenient on items received as Christmas gifts (and here's the story that made me think of all this: Navigating Retail Holiday Return Policies. In many cases you can get your money back, in some cases you might just get credit for another purchase.

My impression is that in Europe you can return items for repair, but not for exchange.

Why are the policies different?  It seems to me that they may both be in equilibrium, so that it is hard to switch from one to another.

If an American store were to adopt a no return policy, that might seem to signal something about the unobserved quality of their goods, and it would shift sales to competitors who maintained easy return policies. And easy returns promote sales, since there is less risk in buying something, bringing it home, and seeing how it looks.

But if a European store were to adopt an easy return policy, while its competitors did not, then it would invite adverse selection of shoppers who were planning to return things (e.g. returning a gown after wearing it once). These shoppers plague American stores too, but they are spread among all stores and are a cost of doing business. But a European store that was the first to adopt an easy return policy would attract all the bad apples...

Perhaps European readers can tell me if my impressions are correct about the differences in store policies across the water...

'tis the season to exchange gift cards

Cardpool is making a market in gift cards, offering to buy yours, and sell you those cashed in by others.
"You are always buying directly from us and selling directly to us. Cardpool buys our gift cards directly from our customers, verifies the authenticity and balance of each gift card, and holds on to them until a buyer is found. Even though we may never find a buyer for a given gift card, we pay sellers within 24 hours of receiving their gift card."

Here's how they address the trust problem involved with putting a gift card in the mail to them:

"How do I know I'll receive payment after sending you my gift cards?"
"Great question! Although there is a bit of a leap of faith here, we've received glowing reviews from CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, NPR, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and many other highly reputable publications. In addition, we're backed by the same founders, CEOs, and investors responsible for many of the brands we've come to love including Google, Facebook, PayPal, Zappos, StubHub, Twitter, Skype, Slide, Lotus, Mint, and many others. We were only able to do this by putting our customers first.
If you'd like to learn more, read about us in the news and learn more about our investors."

Unlike the original-issue market for gift cards, exchanged gift cards come in discrete amounts (sometimes they are the unused credit from the originally issued amount, or sometimes they are merchandise credit for goods that were returned). For example, when I looked there were four cards from the retailer Ann Taylor, in face value amounts $197.53, $212.17, $235.44, and $257.09, all being offered at a 15% discount...



HT: Joshua Gans

Flash sales--buying in a hurry

Time Is Money
...
"But commerce will always require the creation of scarcity, bottlenecks and stampedes. The most immediate way to do this is to make time seem tight — the going-going-gone approach to sales. For years, digital-world salespeople have been putting in overtime to resurrect the illusion that consumers must put up their money now or life will pass them by.


"Not long ago they figured it out: the online private-shopping club. It’s brilliant and insidious. No current retail trick so successfully conjures the bygone retail climate of hotness and nowness — with its proven capacity to create value — as luxuriously capitalized clothing vendors like Gilt Groupe, HauteLook and Rue La La. For shoppers who register, these services host “flash sales” — sudden sales of limited inventory that offer a seemingly exclusive group of consumers deep discounts on known labels in a few-frills atmosphere.
...

"Gilt Groupe, HauteLook and Rue La La are the holy trinity of flash-sale event dealers, at least when it comes to clothes. Know them by their five-star labels, their ticking clocks, their sheen of exclusivity and their limited searchability.


"EBay won’t be left out of the private-club revolution. The latest way to beat those preposterous M.S.R.P.’s — manufacturer’s suggested retail prices — is eBay Fashion Vault, a shopping club like Gilt Groupe but with some of the madcapness of eBay. "

Hotel rooms and discounts

I just received an ad by email for a prizewinning hotel in Boston. When I went to their website, I found that their seasonal room rate for a weekday in late September for two adults is $285.00 Their site also makes it easy to check the special rates they give to those who are members of the AAA, AARP, and the U.S. Government. For the same day and same room, those rates were, when I checked, respectively, $355.50, $355.50, and $306.00 . Gotta love that government discount.

Market for household staples

Just as the pattern of demand for textbooks differs from demand for other books, household staples have a different pattern than other goods. While peaches may only sometimes be in season, lightbulbs always are, and perhaps your regular shopping needs can be met by a specialized service.Here's a story: Alice.com Grasps the Woes of Buying Toilet Paper . Here's the site: http://alice.com/

Malls

Shops provide positive externalities to each other. Both stores and restaurants like to be where there is good foot traffic from other restaurants and stores, and some stores like to cluster together (jewelers, and automobile dealers) to draw comparison shoppers who might not make the journey to a destination that had only a single shop. Part of the problem that towns face in nurturing thriving Main Street/downtown shopping districts is that it is hard to get the right mix when each commercial tenant negotiates separately with each landlord.

Malls--privately owned shopping centers--attempt to internalize this externality, and provide that right mix. (So, not all tenants of a mall have to pay the same rent per square foot; some tenants may provide traffic that raises the profitability of other tenants.) The marketplace designer is the mall owner, sometimes in negotiation with the tenants. (This is what led in Massachusetts to the Solomonaic judicial ruling that a burrito is not a sandwich, when Panera bread sued a mall claiming that the clause in its lease guaranteeing that it would be the mall's only sandwich shop was violated when the mall leased space to a burrito chain.

In the current recession, in which commercial real estate is hard to fill, malls are struggling to keep a mix of tenants who will draw traffic for each other: Malls Test Experimental Waters to Fill Vacancies . While some malls will fail, others may manage to bring new kinds of tenants (the article suggests wave machines and community colleges).

The stakes are high, since many malls are designed as easy-to-park-at destinations that must draw shoppers to them. If some shops go dark, malls will face the same kind of struggle as do less planned retail commercial neighborhoods.

Market for recorded music

Digital Sales Surpass CDs at Atlantic
"Atlantic, a unit of Warner Music Group, says it has reached a milestone that no other major record label has hit: more than half of its music sales in the United States are now from digital products, like downloads on iTunes and ring tones for cellphones. "

"At the Warner Music Group, Atlantic’s parent company, digital represented 27 percent of its American recorded-music revenue during the fourth quarter. (Warner does not break out financial data for its labels, but Atlantic said that digital sales accounted for about 51 percent of its revenue.)
With the milestone comes a sobering reality already familiar to newspapers and television producers. While digital delivery is becoming a bigger slice of the pie, the overall pie is shrinking fast. Analysts at Forrester Research estimate that music sales in the United States will decline to $9.2 billion in 2013, from $10.1 billion this year. That compares with $14.6 billion in 1999, according to the Recording Industry Association of America.
As a result, the hope that digital revenue will eventually compensate for declining sales of CDs — and usher in overall growth — have largely been dashed....
Instead, the music industry is now hoping to find growth from a variety of other revenue streams it has not always had access to, like concert ticket sales and merchandise from artist tours. “The real question,” Mr. Rose said, “is how does the record industry change its rights structure so it captures a fairer percent of the value it creates in funding, marketing and managing the launch of artists?” "

In related news, a Boston judge has thrown out a suit by the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of America) against Boston U., seeking to subpoena IP addresses at which illegal downloads may have been made, on the grounds that
"The University has adequately demonstrated that it is not able to identify the alleged infringers with a reasonable degree of technical certainty. As a result, the Court finds that compliance with the subpoena as to the IP addresses represented by these Defendants would expose innocent parties to intrusive discovery."

Tipping--in restaurants

The NY Times reports on the history of how that aristocratic European institution became an American custom: Why Tip?
It was once widely regarded as a repugnant transaction:
"Ultimately, even those who in principle opposed the practice found themselves unable to stiff their servers. Samuel Gompers, who was president of the American Federation of Labor and a leading figure of the anti-tipping movement, admitted that he “followed the usual custom of giving tips.” "
Ben Franklin worried about it: "“To overtip is to appear an ass: to undertip is to appear an even greater ass,” Benjamin Franklin reportedly noted during his stint in Paris, and his quandary continues to vex American diners."

But eventually the custom caught on in America even as it waned it Europe.

Consumer goods in Gaza

Ynet reports on the tunnel economy.

E-retailing

The NY Times reviews some of the history of eBay and Amazon: Amid the Gloom, an E-Commerce War