Removing disincentives to kidney donation, by McCormick et al. in J.Am.Soc.Nephrology

Here's the latest paper in an illuminating series on the costs and consequences of kidney donation and transplantation:

McCormick F, Held PJ, Chertow G, Peters T, and Roberts J.  Removing Disincentives to Kidney Donation: A Quantitative Analysis.  J Am Soc Nephrol 30: ccc–ccc, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2019030242 is:

https://jasn.asnjournals.org/content/jnephrol/early/2019/07/23/ASN.2019030242.full.pdf

I'm fortunate to be on McCormick's distribution list for email updates on matters related to kidney transplantation, and here's how he introduced and summarized this paper (the table of cost estimates is at the very bottom):

"Friends,

About two years ago, Economics Nobel Laureate Alvin Roth observed that since no-one in the transplant community seemed to be opposed to removing disincentives to kidney donation, the community should unite behind accomplishing that goal.  Our just-published article -- “Removing Disincentives to Kidney Donation: A Quantitative Analysis” -- lays out the consequences of pursuing that consensus objective.  It identifies seven disincentives facing living kidney donors and a single disincentive facing the families of deceased donors. 

The seven disincentives to living donors are listed in column 1 of the table below.  Columns 2 - 5 show estimates of the magnitudes of some of these disincentives made by earlier researchers.  Column 6 indicates our own best estimates of all of the disincentives, and Column 7 specifies the government actions needed to remove these disincentives without violating the National Organ Transplant Act.

Note that the disincentives to living donors total almost $38,000, which is much larger than generally assumed.  This is a substantial deterrent to kidney donation by living donors and goes a long way toward explaining why, even though about 125,400 patients were diagnosed with kidney failure in the U.S. in 2017, most of whom could have benefited from a kidney transplant, only 5,811 patients (4.6%) received a kidney from a living donor.

It follows that if the government could remove all of these disincentives by compensating donors, it could substantially boost kidney donations.  We estimate total donations from both living and deceased donors would increase by about 12,500 per year (63%).  That would cut the waiting list for transplant kidneys (currently numbering about 93,000 patients) in half in about four years.

We estimate removing all the disincentives would require an initial government outlay of only about $0.5 billion per year.  But this investment would quickly be recovered because (a) the long-run cost of transplantation is much less than for dialysis and (b) the government pays most of the costs of both.  So taxpayers would wind up saving a net $1.3 billion each year.  Much more importantly, society would enjoy a net welfare gain of about $14 billion per year, reflecting the great value of the additional donated kidneys to recipients and the savings from these recipients no longer needing expensive dialysis therapy. 

The timing of this article is fortuitous because there is currently great interest in Washington in proposals to remove disincentives to organ donation.  Indeed, on July 10, President Trump issued an executive order stating: “Within 90 days of the date of this order, the Secretary [of the Department of Health and Human Services] shall propose a regulation to remove financial barriers to living organ donation.”

               

Frank

The URL for the just published article: McCormick F, Held PJ, Chertow G, Peters T, and Roberts J.  Removing Disincentives to Kidney Donation: A Quantitative Analysis.  J Am Soc Nephrol 30: ccc–ccc, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.1681/ASN.2019030242 is:

https://jasn.asnjournals.org/content/jnephrol/early/2019/07/23/ASN.2019030242.full.pdf

This is the fourth in a series of articles aimed at reducing the kidney shortage and thereby saving tens of thousands of lives each year.  The previous three were:

1.             Held PJ, McCormick F, Ojo A, Roberts JP.  A cost-benefit analysis of government compensation of kidney donors.  Am J Transplant 16: 877–885, 2016.         

This article laid out in great detail (13 Supplements) all of the costs and benefits of compensating kidney donors, showing it would confer a net benefit on society of about $46 billion per year and would save taxpayers about $12 billion per year.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajt.13490

2.       Held PJ, McCormick F, Chertow GM, Peters TG, Roberts JP.  Would government compensation of living kidney donors exploit the poor? An empirical analysis.  PLOS ONE, November 28, 2018. 

This article presented evidence that the poor would not be exploited by government compensation of kidney donors.  Indeed, the aggregate net benefit to the poor would increase to $12 billion per year from only $1 billion per year currently.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0205655&type=printable

 

 

3.       McCormick F, Held PJ, Chertow GM.  The Terrible Toll of the Kidney Shortage.   J Am Soc Nephrol 29: 2775–2776, 2018.

This editorial argued that the shortage of transplant kidneys is causing the needless premature deaths of about 43,000 Americans each year (118 per day), the same death toll as from 85 fully loaded 747s crashing each year.  This is a much larger number than had previously been assumed. 

 https://jasn.asnjournals.org/content/jnephrol/29/12/2775.full.pdf

Table 1 Disincentives to Kidney Donation Facing Living Donors
(1) Disincentive		Estimated Magnitudes of Disincentives (Adjusted to U.S. prices and standard of living in 2017)					(7) Proposed Government Action To Remove  the Disincentive
		(2) Gaston          et al.      (2006)	(3) Becker – Elías  (2007)	(4) Rodrigue  et al.    (2016)	(5) Przech  et al.    (2018)	(6) McCormick – Held  et al.  (this study)
1	Travel to, and lodging near, a transplant center	$4,313	--	$1,945	$1,653	$3,122	Expand current NLDAC program to include donors of all income levels
2	Loss of income while recovering from surgery		$3,631	$5,118	$4,368	$5,118	Expand current NLDAC pilot program to include donors of all income levels, providing donors with a tax credit of $5,000
3	Cost of home/ dependent care	--	--	--	$5,592	$5,592	Include cost of home/ dependent care in NLDAC program, providing donors with a tax credit of $6,000
4	Risk of dying during kidney removal	$2,951	$6,723	--	--	$1,860	Provide donors with a $5 million short-term life insurance policy
5	Pain and discomfort of kidney removal	$6,414	--	--	--	$6,414	Provide donors with a tax credit of $6,500
6	Decrease in the long-term quality of life	$23,250	$10,085	--	--	$7,910	Provide donors with an insurance policy covering death, disability, and long-term health problems due to donation
7	Concern that a relative or close friend may need a kidney in the future	--	--	--	--	$7,728	Promise to provide a kidney in the future for a specific person in exchange for a donation now
Total		$36,928	$20,439	--	--	$37,745