Here's the video of a panel discussion on the future of economic theory, in which I get to talk about the work of Eric Budish, among other things, as an example of economic engineering. .(I speak for about 10 minutes after the introduction by Nancy Stokey, then Roger Myerson, Ariel Rubinstein and Lars Hansen speak)
Monday, December 21, 2015
Recap of the Sonnenschein celebration at Chicago (with a video)
Here's the video of a panel discussion on the future of economic theory, in which I get to talk about the work of Eric Budish, among other things, as an example of economic engineering. .(I speak for about 10 minutes after the introduction by Nancy Stokey, then Roger Myerson, Ariel Rubinstein and Lars Hansen speak)
Sunday, December 20, 2015
From Bolivia, where the legal working age is now 10 years old
Nico Lacetera points me to this NY Times video on the differing views about child labor in Bolivia, where the legal working age has been lowered to 10, and there is some sentiment for lowering it further (and, of course, opposition as well):
http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/americas/100000003982850/in-bolivia-legitimizing-child-labor.html
http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/americas/100000003982850/in-bolivia-legitimizing-child-labor.html
Saturday, December 19, 2015
Voluntary deceased organ donation in China
It's always hard to parse the Chinese organ data, and know what is going on in the military hospitals, but here's an encouraging story
Chinese Organ Donation on the Rise
2015-12-06 21:11:39 Xinhua Web Editor: Guan Chao
"Chinese organ donation has been on the rise after the country banned the use of prisoners' organs for transplant starting Jan. 1 this year, a top medical expert said Sunday.
As of Nov. 9, China has recorded 5,384 voluntary organ donors, who donated 14,721 various organs, said Huang Jiefu, head of a national human organ donation and transplant committee and former vice health minister.
China is expected to top the world in terms of organ donation in several years, said Huang at a forum in the central city of Changsha.
"As long as the donation system is transparent, most of citizens will be willing to join the program," he said.
The shortage of qualified transplant doctors is a major bottleneck. There are only 169 hospitals across the country eligible for organ transplant, with some 100 doctors able to do the operation, said Huang.
Huang called for speedy training of medical talent and expanding the number of hospitals eligible for organ transplant to 300 and the number of doctors to 400 to meet the public demand.
China began a voluntary organ donation trial in 2010 and promoted the practice across the country in 2013. Now, it tops Asia in the number of organ donations."
Chinese Organ Donation on the Rise
2015-12-06 21:11:39 Xinhua Web Editor: Guan Chao
"Chinese organ donation has been on the rise after the country banned the use of prisoners' organs for transplant starting Jan. 1 this year, a top medical expert said Sunday.
As of Nov. 9, China has recorded 5,384 voluntary organ donors, who donated 14,721 various organs, said Huang Jiefu, head of a national human organ donation and transplant committee and former vice health minister.
China is expected to top the world in terms of organ donation in several years, said Huang at a forum in the central city of Changsha.
"As long as the donation system is transparent, most of citizens will be willing to join the program," he said.
The shortage of qualified transplant doctors is a major bottleneck. There are only 169 hospitals across the country eligible for organ transplant, with some 100 doctors able to do the operation, said Huang.
Huang called for speedy training of medical talent and expanding the number of hospitals eligible for organ transplant to 300 and the number of doctors to 400 to meet the public demand.
China began a voluntary organ donation trial in 2010 and promoted the practice across the country in 2013. Now, it tops Asia in the number of organ donations."
Friday, December 18, 2015
A skeptical look at "nudges" in the Atlantic (which reminds me of Loewenstein's 2010 op-ed in the NY Times)
In the Atlantic, a recent complaint about the tendency to over-promote the efficacy of"nudges" as inexpensive solutions to big problems:
Why 'Nudges' Hardly Help by Frank Pasquale
"...the nudge is really a fudge—a way of avoiding the thornier issues at stake..."
**********
I think the promises and perils of relying on nudges as primary tools of policy were set forth elegantly in a 2010 NY Times op-ed by George Loewenstein and Peter Ubel, who spoke of the relative magnitudes of the effects of nudges compared to e.g. changes in price:
Economics Behaving Badly
"Behavioral economics should complement, not substitute for, more substantive economic interventions. If traditional economics suggests that we should have a larger price difference between sugar-free and sugared drinks, behavioral economics could suggest whether consumers would respond better to a subsidy on unsweetened drinks or a tax on sugary drinks."
Loewenstein, of course, is one of the founding giants of behavioral economics.
Why 'Nudges' Hardly Help by Frank Pasquale
"...the nudge is really a fudge—a way of avoiding the thornier issues at stake..."
**********
I think the promises and perils of relying on nudges as primary tools of policy were set forth elegantly in a 2010 NY Times op-ed by George Loewenstein and Peter Ubel, who spoke of the relative magnitudes of the effects of nudges compared to e.g. changes in price:
Economics Behaving Badly
"Behavioral economics should complement, not substitute for, more substantive economic interventions. If traditional economics suggests that we should have a larger price difference between sugar-free and sugared drinks, behavioral economics could suggest whether consumers would respond better to a subsidy on unsweetened drinks or a tax on sugary drinks."
Loewenstein, of course, is one of the founding giants of behavioral economics.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
American Medical Association adopts resolution calling for increased incentives for organ donation
I'm not completely clear on the parliamentary procedures of the American Medical Association's House of Delegates, but Frank McCormick draws my attention to a recently passed resolution:
RESOLUTION 007 - REMOVING DISINCENTIVES AND STUDYING THE USE OF INCENTIVES TO INCREASE THE NATIONAL ORGAN DONOR POOL
RESOLUTION 007 - REMOVING DISINCENTIVES AND STUDYING THE USE OF INCENTIVES TO INCREASE THE NATIONAL ORGAN DONOR POOL
The AMA site itself requires a login, but here's an ungated site with an account of the resolution:
"Unanimous testimony was offered in support of the medical student resolution* to remove disincentives and study the use of incentives to increase the national organ donor pool. Misery and disability due to lack of organs is evidenced every day in our practices. The HOD voted first to support a study on use of incentives, including valuable consideration, second to eliminate disincentives and third to remove legal barriers to research investigating the use of incentives."
*Here's the draft of the resolution as initially submitted:
***********
But don't get too excited, the working group on The Delivery System reporting in The Surgeon General's Workshop on Increasing Organ Donation held in. July 1991 also recommended removing disincentives and studying the possible use of incentives to increase organ donation.
p59: "RECOMMENDATIONS
II-A.1 Maintain the current approach of organ and tissue donation based on
voluntary, altruistic choice and family participation, but continue to explore the
potential impact of possible alternative approaches, such as financial incentives and presumed consent.
II-A.l.Str.1: DHHS should support the collection and further analysis of
existing data on the attitudes of the public as well as those involved in the
donation process regarding the issues of financial incentives and presumed
consent. "
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Amsterdam school choice: next year will be single tie-breaking deferred acceptance (instead of multiple tie-breaking)
In Amsterdam, the school choice debates have been resolved for now. Next year, there will be a deferred acceptance algorithm with single tie-breaking, which replaces deferred acceptance with multiple tie breaking. The reason is to avoid inefficiencies that could leave students wanting to trade places.
Hessel Oosterbeek forwards the following press release:
Nu toch matching voor toewijzing van scholen aan nieuwe brugklassers
Osvo herziet besluit plaatsingsprocedure en volgt Amsterdamse gemeenteraad in wens tot matching
Datum: 27 november 2015
Google translate renders it into English like this:
Now surely matching for allocation of new schools graders
Osvo revises decision placement procedure and following Amsterdam city council in desire to matching
Date: November 27, 2015
The Amsterdam secondary schools united in Osvo match yet again to bring out high school students in a school of choice. In matching children fill a preferred list of several schools, and the computer most favorable and fairest possible distribution calculates. Last year was also matched, but according to a different algorithm. With the currently chosen variant will be more students in the school of their first choice, but there will be more children who are considerably lower on their preferred list. In any case, there is not the problem afterwards between students can be exchanged for a better result.
Osvo still goes first consult with the alderman of education Simone Kukenheim the practical assistance that will get the schools of the municipality for the implementation of the matching. Concrete will be requested from the municipality together with Osvo a central project, the information to parents and children and to take complaints to themselves.
A broad majority in the city council gave to know the alderman of education for this variant of matching. The alderman asked Osvo thereafter published the decision on October 29 to return to draw, to reconsider. With the amended decision in favor of the matching variant Osvo hopes for this year to be able to count on political and social support in the implementation, but also for the results of the placement.
The selected system is also preferred by a large group of parents who made their wish to keep matching known through a petition, in a variant they call matching 2.0. This variant is referred to as DA STB or RSD. DA STB earlier this year in a scientific analysis for the evaluation Osvo compared with DA MTB, which was used in the 2015 matching. DA STB recently came second in the bus in the quest of Osvo to a procurement procedure for 2016. For the pros and cons refer to
http://www.verenigingosvo.nl/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Evaluatie_Matching_simulaties.pdf
Osvo has always its decision to match last year defended by pointing to the starting point of an optimal and fair distribution of the few places in schools where more children enroll than there are places. After a storm of protest about the system, its implementation and information about Osvo selected after extensive review and in consultation with the municipality for a combination of items and match. It would be students in a first-round no preferred list can draw for their school of choice, followed by a relatively small group of about 500 children would be placed on matching the schools still places available. The second round would be conducted according to the system which now is put the whole group of students.
See previous posts:
Hessel Oosterbeek forwards the following press release:
Nu toch matching voor toewijzing van scholen aan nieuwe brugklassers
Osvo herziet besluit plaatsingsprocedure en volgt Amsterdamse gemeenteraad in wens tot matching
Datum: 27 november 2015
Google translate renders it into English like this:
Now surely matching for allocation of new schools graders
Osvo revises decision placement procedure and following Amsterdam city council in desire to matching
Date: November 27, 2015
The Amsterdam secondary schools united in Osvo match yet again to bring out high school students in a school of choice. In matching children fill a preferred list of several schools, and the computer most favorable and fairest possible distribution calculates. Last year was also matched, but according to a different algorithm. With the currently chosen variant will be more students in the school of their first choice, but there will be more children who are considerably lower on their preferred list. In any case, there is not the problem afterwards between students can be exchanged for a better result.
Osvo still goes first consult with the alderman of education Simone Kukenheim the practical assistance that will get the schools of the municipality for the implementation of the matching. Concrete will be requested from the municipality together with Osvo a central project, the information to parents and children and to take complaints to themselves.
A broad majority in the city council gave to know the alderman of education for this variant of matching. The alderman asked Osvo thereafter published the decision on October 29 to return to draw, to reconsider. With the amended decision in favor of the matching variant Osvo hopes for this year to be able to count on political and social support in the implementation, but also for the results of the placement.
The selected system is also preferred by a large group of parents who made their wish to keep matching known through a petition, in a variant they call matching 2.0. This variant is referred to as DA STB or RSD. DA STB earlier this year in a scientific analysis for the evaluation Osvo compared with DA MTB, which was used in the 2015 matching. DA STB recently came second in the bus in the quest of Osvo to a procurement procedure for 2016. For the pros and cons refer to
http://www.verenigingosvo.nl/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Evaluatie_Matching_simulaties.pdf
Osvo has always its decision to match last year defended by pointing to the starting point of an optimal and fair distribution of the few places in schools where more children enroll than there are places. After a storm of protest about the system, its implementation and information about Osvo selected after extensive review and in consultation with the municipality for a combination of items and match. It would be students in a first-round no preferred list can draw for their school of choice, followed by a relatively small group of about 500 children would be placed on matching the schools still places available. The second round would be conducted according to the system which now is put the whole group of students.
See previous posts:
Friday, June 26, 2015
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Curious Minds interviews me about matching, market design, and a phone call that set me on my path (podcast)
CM 014: Alvin Roth on the Secrets of Market Design
Nobel-prize-winning economist Alvin Roth explores the markets that shape our lives, particularly our work, our health care and our schools. He also explains how key technologies enable companies like Uber, Airbnb, and Google to thrive. His insights extend beyond products, services, and features to include how successful companies attract and hire the most talented employees.
Alvin Roth is a Stanford University Professor, and bestselling author of Who Gets What – and Why: The New Economics of Matchmaking and Market Design. In this episode you will learn:
- how one phone call and a pivotal decision ultimately led to a Nobel Prize
- the important differences between markets
- the role of markets when it comes to marriage, loans, and more
- the role of social support in markets
- the ways the Internet and mobile technology shape market possibilities
- the three key factors that influence the success of companies like Airbnb and Uber
- the ways Smartphones are influencing markets
- how labor market findings influenced the market designs of today
- what game theory can teach us about getting into college and getting a job
- how market designers are applying their skills to the growing global refugee crisis
Alvin also shares what got him interested in the economics of market design and the potential this new field holds for helping us rethink what markets are and can do.
Monday, December 14, 2015
Climate change agreement, on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning
I discussed this weekend's climate change agreement on Bloomberg Surveillance from minute 33 to 41, which you can listen to hereDownload
or here: http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vDuJ6SlgV5gs.mp3
More or less I said that the Paris deal, which may be all that was politically available, is complex and aspirational—it will be hard for each country to devise ways to cut emissions, it will be hard to measure what was cut, it will be hard to decide what it cost (and so to determine rich to poor country subsidies).
A simpler plan, but not politically feasible (not in the US and not in the world at large) would have been to agree to, say, double the price of carbon over the next few years, by taxing it, and giving back the money to individuals (by reducing other taxes, or by lump sum tax deductions), so that they would still have reason to economize on how much they drive, how they heat their houses, etc. This would also give a boost to companies that want to produce clean energy and energy saving tech
or here: http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vDuJ6SlgV5gs.mp3
More or less I said that the Paris deal, which may be all that was politically available, is complex and aspirational—it will be hard for each country to devise ways to cut emissions, it will be hard to measure what was cut, it will be hard to decide what it cost (and so to determine rich to poor country subsidies).
A simpler plan, but not politically feasible (not in the US and not in the world at large) would have been to agree to, say, double the price of carbon over the next few years, by taxing it, and giving back the money to individuals (by reducing other taxes, or by lump sum tax deductions), so that they would still have reason to economize on how much they drive, how they heat their houses, etc. This would also give a boost to companies that want to produce clean energy and energy saving tech
Technology watch: does Crispr create a new class of repugnant transactions?
The NY Times has the story:
Scientists Seek Moratorium on Edits to Human Genome That Could Be Inherited
"An international group of scientists meeting in Washington called on Thursday for what would, in effect, be a moratorium on making inheritable changes to the human genome.
"The group said it would be “irresponsible to proceed” until the risks could be better assessed and until there was “broad societal consensus about the appropriateness” of any proposed change. The group also held open the possibility for such work to proceed in the future by saying that as knowledge advances, the issue of making permanent changes to the human genome “should be revisited on a regular basis.”
...
“The overriding question is when, if ever, we will want to use gene editing to change human inheritance,” David Baltimore said in opening the conference this week.
...
"The meeting was prompted by a new genetic technique, invented three years ago, that enables DNA to be edited with unprecedented ease and precision. The technique, known as Crispr-Cas9 and now widely accessible, would allow physicians to alter the human germline, which includes the eggs and the sperm, to cure genetic disease or even enhance desirable physical or mental traits.
...
"“If we are going to view certain applications of human genome editing as permissible, can we draw a line and not throw out legitimate medical applications in order to stave off those that are less palatable to most of us?” Dr. Daley asked.
"Other scientists suggested that the possible risks of human genome editing would be rapidly reduced as the techniques were refined. “Many of these technologies are improving so fast it’s hard to measure,” said George Church, a professor of genetics at the Harvard Medical School. Erroneous cuts made by Crispr-Cas9 can now be reduced to less than one per three trillion base pairs of DNA; the human genome is three billion base pairs in length.
“The concept of a ban on gene editing does not make sense,” Dr. Church wrote in the current issue of the journal Nature. “Banning human germline editing could put a damper on the best medical research and instead drive the practice underground to black markets and uncontrolled medical tourism.”
Scientists Seek Moratorium on Edits to Human Genome That Could Be Inherited
"An international group of scientists meeting in Washington called on Thursday for what would, in effect, be a moratorium on making inheritable changes to the human genome.
"The group said it would be “irresponsible to proceed” until the risks could be better assessed and until there was “broad societal consensus about the appropriateness” of any proposed change. The group also held open the possibility for such work to proceed in the future by saying that as knowledge advances, the issue of making permanent changes to the human genome “should be revisited on a regular basis.”
...
“The overriding question is when, if ever, we will want to use gene editing to change human inheritance,” David Baltimore said in opening the conference this week.
...
"The meeting was prompted by a new genetic technique, invented three years ago, that enables DNA to be edited with unprecedented ease and precision. The technique, known as Crispr-Cas9 and now widely accessible, would allow physicians to alter the human germline, which includes the eggs and the sperm, to cure genetic disease or even enhance desirable physical or mental traits.
...
"“If we are going to view certain applications of human genome editing as permissible, can we draw a line and not throw out legitimate medical applications in order to stave off those that are less palatable to most of us?” Dr. Daley asked.
"Other scientists suggested that the possible risks of human genome editing would be rapidly reduced as the techniques were refined. “Many of these technologies are improving so fast it’s hard to measure,” said George Church, a professor of genetics at the Harvard Medical School. Erroneous cuts made by Crispr-Cas9 can now be reduced to less than one per three trillion base pairs of DNA; the human genome is three billion base pairs in length.
“The concept of a ban on gene editing does not make sense,” Dr. Church wrote in the current issue of the journal Nature. “Banning human germline editing could put a damper on the best medical research and instead drive the practice underground to black markets and uncontrolled medical tourism.”
Sunday, December 13, 2015
How do Uber drivers get home at the end of the day?
Uber's matching algorithm takes drivers' destinations into account at the end of their working day: here's Uber's announcement of the change in their matching algorithm (published in November). Helping Drivers Reach Their Destinations
"For our partners, driving with Uber means having the freedom to set their own schedules. The reasons people drive are as diverse as the individuals themselves. Some drive to supplement existing income, others drive to save up for a vacation or to pay off a student loan–-and when and where drivers choose to log onto to the Uber platform varies just as much.
"That’s why we’re introducing a new feature that enables drivers to tell Uber where they’re heading so that we can find trips on their way.
"Starting this week in the Bay Area, drivers will be able to set their destination twice a day when they want to be matched only with riders traveling in a similar direction. Whether it’s commuting to the areas where rides are needed most, driving back home at the end of the day, or running errands around town, drivers can set their destination to earn fares that are along their route."
"For our partners, driving with Uber means having the freedom to set their own schedules. The reasons people drive are as diverse as the individuals themselves. Some drive to supplement existing income, others drive to save up for a vacation or to pay off a student loan–-and when and where drivers choose to log onto to the Uber platform varies just as much.
"That’s why we’re introducing a new feature that enables drivers to tell Uber where they’re heading so that we can find trips on their way.
"Starting this week in the Bay Area, drivers will be able to set their destination twice a day when they want to be matched only with riders traveling in a similar direction. Whether it’s commuting to the areas where rides are needed most, driving back home at the end of the day, or running errands around town, drivers can set their destination to earn fares that are along their route."
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Sandro Ambuehl in the Washington Post: How incentives can change the way you evaluate options (and not just the choices you make)
Jeff Guo at the Washington Post has written a nice account of Sandro Ambuehl's jobmarket paper. Here's the WashPo story: The secret to why money is so good at changing people’s minds
Here are the first lines:
"It is illegal in the United States, and most other countries, to pay people for their organs.
It is not illegal, though, to pay people to eat bugs. So that is what Sandro Ambuehl, a doctoral candidate in economics at Stanford, recently did, to show how money can make you a little crazy."
Here are the first lines:
"It is illegal in the United States, and most other countries, to pay people for their organs.
It is not illegal, though, to pay people to eat bugs. So that is what Sandro Ambuehl, a doctoral candidate in economics at Stanford, recently did, to show how money can make you a little crazy."
Friday, December 11, 2015
Is "program hiring" a new name for unraveling?
The WSJ has the story: When a Job Offer Comes Without a Job
"Some companies are hiring first and figuring out jobs for these recruits much later.
"Amid a fierce market for college recruits, companies like Facebook Inc. and Intuit Inc. are making offers to dozens of hires without having a particular job waiting—or even, sometimes, a starting salary.
"Recruiters say so-called “program hiring” helps companies scoop up promising talent ahead of competitors and ensures their newest workers can stand a little uncertainty. College career officers say more students are getting offers this way.
...
"Entry-level hires are locked in more quickly, since recruiters arrive on campus armed with approval to make hires on the spot as they see fit, she said.
"This is important as employers press onto university campuses earlier and earlier in the school year.
"A candidate who accepts Intuit’s offer sets in motion a complex matchmaking process that includes salary discussions.
"Each new hire is assigned a recruiter who coordinates a series of matching conversations between the hire and various Intuit managers over the course of several months.
"The conversations are designed to align the hire’s interests and talents with an available position—and teams that help with campus recruiting often get first dibs on new hires—Ms. Carter said.
"Hires are given their assignments shortly before starting work, having received information about pay some time before that."
"Some companies are hiring first and figuring out jobs for these recruits much later.
"Amid a fierce market for college recruits, companies like Facebook Inc. and Intuit Inc. are making offers to dozens of hires without having a particular job waiting—or even, sometimes, a starting salary.
"Recruiters say so-called “program hiring” helps companies scoop up promising talent ahead of competitors and ensures their newest workers can stand a little uncertainty. College career officers say more students are getting offers this way.
...
"Entry-level hires are locked in more quickly, since recruiters arrive on campus armed with approval to make hires on the spot as they see fit, she said.
"This is important as employers press onto university campuses earlier and earlier in the school year.
"A candidate who accepts Intuit’s offer sets in motion a complex matchmaking process that includes salary discussions.
"Each new hire is assigned a recruiter who coordinates a series of matching conversations between the hire and various Intuit managers over the course of several months.
"The conversations are designed to align the hire’s interests and talents with an available position—and teams that help with campus recruiting often get first dibs on new hires—Ms. Carter said.
"Hires are given their assignments shortly before starting work, having received information about pay some time before that."
Thursday, December 10, 2015
New market designers: class photos at Stanford and Harvard
Two end of class photos, for market design classes at Stanford and Harvard (where it hasn't been taught for a while, and was taught this year by Scott Kominers). The pipeline of market designers is looking good.
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
Suspected organ trafficker arrested
YNet has the story: Turkish authorities arrest Israeli suspected of organ trafficking
Boris Wolfman, who was indicted in Israel but managed to flee the country, was caught at Istanbul airport; he is expected to be extradited to Israel.
"According to a report in Turkish newspaper Daily Vatan, Wolfman allegedly arrived in Istanbul from Bangkok to convince struggling Syrian refugees to sell their organs.
He had reportedly already started contacting Syrian refugees, and was making arrangement to operate on them in small hospitals in Turkish cities.
Earlier this year, Wolfman and six others were charged with organ trafficking and organizing illegal transplants in Kosovo, Azerbaijan and Sri Lanka. The offenses in question were committed between the years 2008-2014.
According to the indictment, those receiving the illegal transplant had to pay between 70-100 thousand euro for the organ, while the organ donors only received tens of thousands of euros.
Wolfman used an ad in Russian newspapers to draw out potential donors, who agreed to donate one of their organs for money due to their difficult economic situation.
He did not explain to the donors about the physical and mental risks they face, denying them of the information they needed to make the decision. After the organ donation in Kosovo, the donors were discharged without receiving any explanation about needing medical treatment or about the changes to their health situation. There was also no adequate medical supervision following the operation, and at least one teenage boy became paralyzed because he did not receive proper treatment after his kidney was removed."
Boris Wolfman, who was indicted in Israel but managed to flee the country, was caught at Istanbul airport; he is expected to be extradited to Israel.
"According to a report in Turkish newspaper Daily Vatan, Wolfman allegedly arrived in Istanbul from Bangkok to convince struggling Syrian refugees to sell their organs.
He had reportedly already started contacting Syrian refugees, and was making arrangement to operate on them in small hospitals in Turkish cities.
Earlier this year, Wolfman and six others were charged with organ trafficking and organizing illegal transplants in Kosovo, Azerbaijan and Sri Lanka. The offenses in question were committed between the years 2008-2014.
According to the indictment, those receiving the illegal transplant had to pay between 70-100 thousand euro for the organ, while the organ donors only received tens of thousands of euros.
Wolfman used an ad in Russian newspapers to draw out potential donors, who agreed to donate one of their organs for money due to their difficult economic situation.
He did not explain to the donors about the physical and mental risks they face, denying them of the information they needed to make the decision. After the organ donation in Kosovo, the donors were discharged without receiving any explanation about needing medical treatment or about the changes to their health situation. There was also no adequate medical supervision following the operation, and at least one teenage boy became paralyzed because he did not receive proper treatment after his kidney was removed."
Monday, December 7, 2015
Jean Tirole interviewed in the Financial Times
Tirole thinks both about French economists and the French economy:
French lessons from a Nobel Prize winner
"...Laffont and Tirole thought internationally. Tirole says: “We started teaching in English 20 years ago, when it was illegal.”
...
"...economists aren’t heard or understood much in France. Tirole explains: “In France, in most universities you specialise very early but you don’t learn any economics. France came to a market economy pretty late, too. If you think about France, a lot of the decisions were administrative.”
Would-be reformers such as Tirole or economy minister Emmanuel Macron get shouted down with the ultimate French insult: “Libéral!” This essentially means “Laissez-faire capitalist”. Tirole explains: “People don’t know what libéral means. The truth is I don’t know economists who are for laissez-faire, so to speak. They may be for more or less regulation.”
...
"Tirole sketches France’s looming economic triple whammy. ...Third, he says, the digital economy will quickly destroy many jobs. He adds, half-jokingly: “Maybe my job won’t exist any more. Maybe all teaching will be done from Cambridge, Mass.”
...
"But if the far-right leader Marine Le Pen becomes president in 2017, would that ruin his hopes for France? “Yes,” sighs Tirole. “It ruins the country’s image but also the country’s economics. Leaving the euro, nationalising firms, pouring more money into civil-service jobs, and stopping migrants and imports will make markets even more inefficient, will increase the public deficit, and we will lose the discipline of the euro. I don’t want to answer your question. I don’t want to think about it.”
French lessons from a Nobel Prize winner
"...Laffont and Tirole thought internationally. Tirole says: “We started teaching in English 20 years ago, when it was illegal.”
...
"...economists aren’t heard or understood much in France. Tirole explains: “In France, in most universities you specialise very early but you don’t learn any economics. France came to a market economy pretty late, too. If you think about France, a lot of the decisions were administrative.”
Would-be reformers such as Tirole or economy minister Emmanuel Macron get shouted down with the ultimate French insult: “Libéral!” This essentially means “Laissez-faire capitalist”. Tirole explains: “People don’t know what libéral means. The truth is I don’t know economists who are for laissez-faire, so to speak. They may be for more or less regulation.”
...
"Tirole sketches France’s looming economic triple whammy. ...Third, he says, the digital economy will quickly destroy many jobs. He adds, half-jokingly: “Maybe my job won’t exist any more. Maybe all teaching will be done from Cambridge, Mass.”
...
"But if the far-right leader Marine Le Pen becomes president in 2017, would that ruin his hopes for France? “Yes,” sighs Tirole. “It ruins the country’s image but also the country’s economics. Leaving the euro, nationalising firms, pouring more money into civil-service jobs, and stopping migrants and imports will make markets even more inefficient, will increase the public deficit, and we will lose the discipline of the euro. I don’t want to answer your question. I don’t want to think about it.”
Airbnb Replies (with some data) to the Report of the NY State Attorney General
Here's a 2014 report by the NY State Attorney General's office, Airbnb in the city
Short-Term Rentals Experienced Explosive Growth. Private short-term bookings in New York City on Airbnb increased sharply during the Review Period, registering more than a tenfold increase. The associated revenue also spiked, nearly doubling each year. This year, revenue to Airbnb and its hosts from private short-term rentals in New York City is expected to exceed $282 million.
Most Short-Term Rentals Booked in New York Violated the Law. State and local laws in New York—including the Multiple Dwelling Law and the New York City Administrative Code— prohibit certain short-term rentals. During the Review Period, 72 percent of units used as private shortterm rentals on Airbnb appeared to violate these laws.
Commercial Users Accounted for a Disproportionate Share of Private ShortTerm Rentals by Volume and Revenue. Ninety-four percent of Airbnb hosts offered at most two unique units during the Review Period. But the remaining six percent of hosts dominated the platform during that period, offering up to hundreds of unique units, accepting 36 percent of private short-term bookings, and receiving $168 million, 37 percent of all host revenue. This report refers to these hosts as “Commercial Users.”
Top Commercial Users Employed Rental Platforms to Run Multimillion-Dollar Short-Term Rental Businesses. Well over 100 Commercial Users each controlled 10 or more unique Airbnb units during the Review Period. Together, these hosts accepted 47,103 private shortterm reservations and earned $59.4 million in revenue. The highest-earning operation administered 272 unique Airbnb listings, booked 3,024 reservations, and received $6.8 million in revenue during the Review Period. Each of the top 12 New York City operations on Airbnb during that period earned revenue exceeding $1 million.
Private Short-Term Rentals Displaced Long-Term Housing in Thousands of Apartments. In 2013, more than 4,600 units were booked as short-term rentals through Airbnb for three months of the year or more. Of these, nearly 2,000 units were booked as short-term rentals for a cumulative total of half the year or more—rendering them largely unavailable for use by long-term residents. Notably, the share of revenue to Airbnb and its hosts from units booked as private shortterm rentals for more than half the year increased steadily, accounting for 38 percent of each figure by 2013.
Numerous Short-Term Rental Units Appeared to Serve as Illegal Hostels. New York law does not permit commercial enterprises to operate hostels, where multiple, unrelated guests share tight quarters. In 2013, approximately 200 units in New York City were booked as private shortterm rentals for more than 365 nights during the year. This indicates that multiple transients shared the same listing on the same night, as they would in an illegal hostel. The 10 most-rented units for private short-term rentals were each booked for an average of about 1,900 nights in 2013, with the top listing accepting 13 reservations on an average night.
Gentrified or Rapidly Gentrifying Neighborhoods Primarily in Manhattan Accounted for the Vast Majority of Revenue from Private Short-Term Rentals in New York City. Bookings in just three Community Districts in Manhattan—the Lower East Side/Chinatown, Chelsea/Hell’s Kitchen, and Greenwich Village/SoHo—accounted for approximately $187 million in revenue to hosts, or more than 40 percent of private stay revenue to hosts during the Review Period. By contrast, all the reservations in three boroughs (Queens, Staten Island, and the Bronx) brought hosts revenue of $12 million—less than three percent of the New York City total
**********
Here's a recent NY Times story on the data Airbnb has recently made available:
Airbnb Says Data Dump Shows Misuse of Service Is Rare
"With its release of a trove of data this week, the short-term rental company Airbnb sought to underscore how the majority of its hosts in New York City are playing by the rules. The point is a critical one for the company, valued by investors at about $24 billion, as it tries to pacify skeptical lawmakers and regulators.
Short-Term Rentals Experienced Explosive Growth. Private short-term bookings in New York City on Airbnb increased sharply during the Review Period, registering more than a tenfold increase. The associated revenue also spiked, nearly doubling each year. This year, revenue to Airbnb and its hosts from private short-term rentals in New York City is expected to exceed $282 million.
Most Short-Term Rentals Booked in New York Violated the Law. State and local laws in New York—including the Multiple Dwelling Law and the New York City Administrative Code— prohibit certain short-term rentals. During the Review Period, 72 percent of units used as private shortterm rentals on Airbnb appeared to violate these laws.
Commercial Users Accounted for a Disproportionate Share of Private ShortTerm Rentals by Volume and Revenue. Ninety-four percent of Airbnb hosts offered at most two unique units during the Review Period. But the remaining six percent of hosts dominated the platform during that period, offering up to hundreds of unique units, accepting 36 percent of private short-term bookings, and receiving $168 million, 37 percent of all host revenue. This report refers to these hosts as “Commercial Users.”
Top Commercial Users Employed Rental Platforms to Run Multimillion-Dollar Short-Term Rental Businesses. Well over 100 Commercial Users each controlled 10 or more unique Airbnb units during the Review Period. Together, these hosts accepted 47,103 private shortterm reservations and earned $59.4 million in revenue. The highest-earning operation administered 272 unique Airbnb listings, booked 3,024 reservations, and received $6.8 million in revenue during the Review Period. Each of the top 12 New York City operations on Airbnb during that period earned revenue exceeding $1 million.
Private Short-Term Rentals Displaced Long-Term Housing in Thousands of Apartments. In 2013, more than 4,600 units were booked as short-term rentals through Airbnb for three months of the year or more. Of these, nearly 2,000 units were booked as short-term rentals for a cumulative total of half the year or more—rendering them largely unavailable for use by long-term residents. Notably, the share of revenue to Airbnb and its hosts from units booked as private shortterm rentals for more than half the year increased steadily, accounting for 38 percent of each figure by 2013.
Numerous Short-Term Rental Units Appeared to Serve as Illegal Hostels. New York law does not permit commercial enterprises to operate hostels, where multiple, unrelated guests share tight quarters. In 2013, approximately 200 units in New York City were booked as private shortterm rentals for more than 365 nights during the year. This indicates that multiple transients shared the same listing on the same night, as they would in an illegal hostel. The 10 most-rented units for private short-term rentals were each booked for an average of about 1,900 nights in 2013, with the top listing accepting 13 reservations on an average night.
Gentrified or Rapidly Gentrifying Neighborhoods Primarily in Manhattan Accounted for the Vast Majority of Revenue from Private Short-Term Rentals in New York City. Bookings in just three Community Districts in Manhattan—the Lower East Side/Chinatown, Chelsea/Hell’s Kitchen, and Greenwich Village/SoHo—accounted for approximately $187 million in revenue to hosts, or more than 40 percent of private stay revenue to hosts during the Review Period. By contrast, all the reservations in three boroughs (Queens, Staten Island, and the Bronx) brought hosts revenue of $12 million—less than three percent of the New York City total
**********
Here's a recent NY Times story on the data Airbnb has recently made available:
Airbnb Says Data Dump Shows Misuse of Service Is Rare
"With its release of a trove of data this week, the short-term rental company Airbnb sought to underscore how the majority of its hosts in New York City are playing by the rules. The point is a critical one for the company, valued by investors at about $24 billion, as it tries to pacify skeptical lawmakers and regulators.
Of particular concern to officials are the Airbnb hosts who lease multiple apartments, renting them out year-round and distorting their market value in a climate of scarce affordable housing.
The anonymized information released by Airbnb on rentals between November 2014 and November 2015 showed that 55 hosts in Manhattan, the borough with the most listings, have five or more full units listed on the platform, a tiny fraction of the more than 18,700 units listed in the borough.
...
Airbnb said it removed more than 2,000 listings last year after an affidavit was filed by the New York State attorney general, Eric T. Schneiderman, saying that two-thirds of the apartments listed in the city were illegal sublets.
A spokesman for Mr. Schneiderman’s office said that after a review of anonymized data Airbnb provided in 2014, it sought the identities of 124 hosts, all of whom had a minimum of 10 listings on the site and were earning an average of $500,000 a year. In June, the attorney general’s office referred the cases, including about two dozen hosts who had indicated a willingness to settle, to four city agencies with enforcement powers.
Wiley Norvell, a spokesman for Mayor Bill de Blasio, said that after receiving the attorney general’s referral, “city agencies began assembling cases to hold violators accountable.”
“We expect to announce those results soon,” he said.
Sunday, December 6, 2015
Preston McAfee peers into the future (and sees market design)
Microsoft offers predictions from some of its futurists (and apparently economics fits somewhere between AI and data science...:
From AI and data science to cryptography: Microsoft researchers offer 16 predictions for ’16>
Preston McAfee
Chief Economist, Microsoft
What will be the key breakthrough or advance in economics in 2016?Economists are struggling to understand why the current recovery involves low-productivity increases, in comparison to past recoveries, and whether low productivity is a new normal. I expect this conundrum will be answered in 2016, and the answer could have important implications for government policies to boost growth. Of course, it may turn out that the problem is measurement error, and that we are growing normally.
Looking forward 10 years to 2026, what will be the major advance in economics?Over the next 10 years, the major breakthrough of economics will be in applications of market design, which improves the efficiency of markets using a combination of game theory, economics and algorithm design. We’ve already seen fruitful application in search auctions, spectrum auctions, kidney exchange and school assignment.
How would you complete this sentence: 2016 will be the year that…Silicon Valley recognizes that the value of Uber is its marketplace, not the data, but that is probably too optimistic. The big data bubble has longer to run.
Improving Schools in MA: conference in Boston tomorrow
The conference in Boston tomorrow looks like a nice mix of academic researchers and education officials:
Leveraging Research and Policy to Improve K-12 Education in Massachusetts
Leveraging Research and Policy to Improve K-12 Education in Massachusetts
December 7, 2015, 8:00am - 5:30pm
Overview:
A number of important issues are now on the state K-12 education policy agenda. In the past few years, scholars have produced a wide range of results highly relevant for this agenda. The conference is meant to bring multiple stakeholders together for a discussion of research findings and future work that will be helpful at this vital time.
Audience:
Policymakers, researchers, non-profit leaders and education journalists will be invited.
Agenda:
Click here for the agenda.
Registration:
Registration is now closed. Any journalists who wish to attend should contact Annice Correia Gabel (acorreia@mit.edu).
Location:Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
600 Atlantic Ave #100
Boston, MA 02210
600 Atlantic Ave #100
Boston, MA 02210
Keynote Speaker:Roland Fryer, Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University and faculty director of the Education Innovation Laboratory.
Conference Organizers:
Katharine Bradbury, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Mary Burke, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Robert Triest, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Joshua Angrist, MIT and SEII
Parag Pathak, MIT and SEII
Mary Burke, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Robert Triest, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Joshua Angrist, MIT and SEII
Parag Pathak, MIT and SEII
Contact:Please address any questions to acorreia@mit.edu.
Among the talks are some that touch on school choice:
Charters Without Lotteries: Testing Takeovers in New Orleans and Boston
Atila Abdulkadiroğlu, Duke University
Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Peter Hull, Massachusetts Institute of Technology*
Parag A. Pathak, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Leveraging Lotteries for School Value-Added: Testing and Estimation
Joshua Angrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER*
Peter Hull, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Parag A. Pathak, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Christopher Walters, University of California, Berkeley and NBER
Overview of Unified Enrollment in American Cities
Parag A. Pathak, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER
Saturday, December 5, 2015
The Handbook of Market Design--now in paperback
The Handbook of Market Design is now available in paperback: here's what the publisher (Oxford U Press) has to say about it.
The Handbook of Market Design
Edited by Nir Vulkan, Alvin E. Roth, and Zvika Neeman
- Includes chapters by Alvin Roth, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics 2012, including research for which he was awarded the prize
- A comprehensive overview that presents the latest research in applied market design
- Brings together all major researchers in the area, across disciplines- economics, engineering, computer science
- Chapters on matching markets where there is a need to match large two-sided populations of agents such as medical residents and hospitals, law clerks and judges, patients and kidney donors, to one another
- Active and fast-growing area of economics, lots of research, theory, and applications
- No other book on this subject
and here's a recent book review...
Book Review: The Handbook of Market Design
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