In-game sports betting is something different

 The NYT has the story:

The Seductive, and Risky, Power of Live Sports Betting
In-game betting is predicted to grow to more than $14 billion by the end of the decade. It’s a huge part of the sports gambling industry. Public health officials worry that it could be increasing the risks for gamblers.  By Jenny Vrentas 

"These bets — known as in-game or live betting — have become ubiquitous and are one of the fastest growing areas of the sports gambling industry in the United States. They range from wagers on the result of a game while it is underway to what are known as microbets on events that are resolved quickly, sometimes in a matter of seconds, like the speed of a baseball pitch. Others are on outcomes of random events — will the halftime point total be an odd or even number, for instance. Once you are on the FanDuel or DraftKings mobile apps, there are scrolls and scrolls of bets, worldwide, day or night.

"For betting companies, or sportsbooks, the popularity of live betting is driving rapid revenue growth. Bets during games accounted for more than half the money wagered on FanDuel and DraftKings in recent quarters 

...

"With artificial intelligence being used to automate and accelerate the creation of more betting markets, in-game betting is expected to continue its rapid growth. Revenues from in-game bets could triple by the end of this decade, to more than $14 billion, according to a report released last October by the investment bank Citizens. That is an amount on par with the total revenue generated by the U.S. sports betting industry last year.

...

"Some professional sports leagues now allow ads for sports betting companies to be integrated into the live action of a game broadcast — as opposed to just during a commercial break. Michael Kay, the Yankees play-by-play announcer, or the N.B.A. commentators Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith will offer odds or set up predictions and direct viewers to a sportsbook that sponsors the broadcast and takes the bets. The N.B.A. and Major League Baseball permit up to two of these integrations per game.

"Streaming, too, has enabled new ways for fans to bet while they watch. Last year, the N.B.A. debuted an optional overlay on its livestreaming platform that displays in-game betting odds. Users can tap to click through to a prefilled bet slip in the DraftKings or FanDuel apps. The N.F.L. has gone a step further, allowing its games to be streamed inside sportsbook apps (and still count toward the Nielsen audience ratings).

"The professional sports leagues also benefit from live-betting revenue through their financial stakes in data providers, like Sportradar and Genius Sports. Those data companies sell the real-time data from games that facilitates live bets to sportsbooks, and they get a portion of the sportsbooks’ gambling revenues. The data companies have said that the percentage they take from in-game bets is higher than from pregame bets. (Chris Dougan, a spokesman for Genius Sports, said its partnership with the N.F.L. enabled legal and fair betting on N.F.L. games."

Alcohol is being out-competed by nicotine (and maybe by pretty good non-alcoholic beer)

 The WSJ has the story:

Nicotine Is Hot, Beer Is Not. What Vice Stocks Say About America’s Guilty Pleasures.
People are smoking less, but tobacco stocks are soaring while brewers struggle to sell beer in the U.S.
By  Laura Cooper

"Want to know what guilty pleasures are gaining and losing popularity in America? Take a look at the stock prices of Molson Coors and Altria .

Marlboro cigarette-maker Altria, which also owns the growing on! nicotine pouch, is up more than 21% so far this year. Shares of Molson Coors, the brewer behind beer brands such as Miller Lite and Blue Moon, are down more than 13%.

Companies that traditionally sold cigarettes are seeing new engines of growth, no tobacco or smoking required. Nicotine pouches like on! and British American Tobacco’s BATS 0.93%increase; green up pointing triangle Velo look like tiny tea bags that sit between the gum and the cheek and are often filled with wood pulp along with nicotine salts and flavorings. The nicotine is absorbed into the bloodstream through the mouth’s lining.

Zyn, which is produced by Swedish Match North America, an affiliate of Philip Morris International PM 1.30%increase; green up pointing triangle, is the most popular nicotine pouch. It gained popularity due in part to a devoted following of unaffiliated “Zynfluencers” who tout their love of the brand.

Earlier this year, U.S. health officials authorized Zyn to stay on the market after finding that it has benefits as an alternative for adult smokers that outweigh its potential risk to young people."

Brain drugs, a review (performance enhancement, side effects, and addiction)

 From the Free Press,  tasting notes on a variety of performance enhancing drugs for concentration, finally converging on what sounds like nicotine addiction.

I Tried Wall Street’s Famous Brain Drugs
My experimental high and crash through the not-quite-legal, sort of effective, occasionally heart-pounding medicine cabinet of Wall Street and Silicon Valley’s productivity optimizers.  by  Park MacDougald

"Vyvanse:
The brand name for lisdexamfetamine, a prodrug that, once ingested, slowly converts to dextroamphetamine, one of the active ingredients in Adderall. Originally developed as a longer acting and less easily abused alternative to dextroamphetamine, lisdexamfetamine is now the third most commonly prescribed stimulant in the United States, according to the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), with around 15 million prescriptions dispensed in 2023. With insurance, a 30-day supply of Vyvanse can run around $60.

...

" Strattera:  Generic name atomoxetine, Strattera is a selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor initially developed by Eli Lilly to treat depression, but later approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an ADHD treatment when it was found to be ineffective for its intended use. Strattera is far less commonly prescribed than Adderall, Vyvanse, or Ritalin—4.3 million prescriptions were dispensed in 2023, per the DEA—but may be favored for patients with a history of addiction, due to its low potential for abuse. It’s also cheap; with my insurance, a month’s supply of Strattera cost less than $10.

...

"Dextroamphetamine: Basically like Adderall but without levoamphetamine, a less potent amphetamine isomer that helps to smooth the overall effects of the drug. Dextroamphetamine, or “dexy,” has been available since the 1930s, and was issued to U.S. bomber pilots in World War II to help keep them awake on nighttime missions. It’s still around today, but far less common than Adderall or Ritalin (methylphenidate). Around 915,000 dextroamphetamine prescriptions were dispensed in the United States in 2023, according to the DEA.

...

"Modafinil: Unlike the other drugs on this list, Modafinil is not primarily an ADHD treatment. It’s a non-amphetamine stimulant and “wakefulness-promoting agent” developed in France during the 1970s and 1980s as a treatment for narcolepsy, but its current claim to fame is for its use by the U.S. Air Force to manage pilot fatigue on long missions (it’s also frequently prescribed for night-shift workers). Prescription modafinil is generally cheap with insurance, but the variant I bought—a supplement containing adrafinil, a closely related substance—cost $40 for a jar of 30 pills.

...

 "Zyn: Zyn is the original brand of smokeless tobacco pouches, introduced by a Swedish company, Swedish Match, as a tobacco-free alternative to Snus in 2014 (its major competitor, Velo, is also Swedish, though both companies are now owned by international tobacco conglomerates). In the United States, Zyn is sold in tins of 3 mg or 6 mg pouches, though the European version of the product—which I purchase from my local Yemeni-owned bodega in New York City—also comes in 9 mg, 11 mg, and 13.5 mg varieties. Retail, in New York, a tin costs around $9—up from $5–$6 only a few years ago.

...

"For me, however, 6 mg of Zyn—rising to 9 mg in times of crisis—has become a necessity akin to drinking water. I no longer know what Zyn “feels like,” per se, since I only feel its absence, in the form of scattered attention, forgetfulness, and low-level irritability. When I am on deadline or otherwise swamped with work, I rarely go 10 minutes without a pouch in my mouth."

 

Nicotine news--unintended consequences

 Nicotine remains a big source of addiction, and (especially in connection with cigarette smoking) a major cause of premature death.  Here's a brief report on the Whac-A-Mole nature of efforts to limit addiction, particularly by minors.

Vaping Declined in States With Flavor Bans -- But It's Not All Good News— Restrictions were also tied to increased cigarette use in youths and young adults
by Shannon Firth, MedPage Today  July 31, 2025

• "To date, seven states and Washington, D.C. have enacted flavor restriction policies for e-cigarettes.
• These state policies were associated with reduced e-cigarette use among adults in recent years.
• However, relative to states without these policies, the restrictions were also tied to increased cigarette use among high school-age youths and young adults."

The science and politics of vaping in the U.S

 The Washington Post has the story:

FDA lets Juul market vapes in the U.S. three years after trying to ban them
Federal regulators first announced a ban of Juul products in 2022, although a court order allowed them to stay on store shelves while the company filed an appeal.  By David Ovalle and Shannon Najmabadi
 

"The Food and Drug Administration has authorized Juul Labs to market its electronic cigarettes, years after the agency tried to ban the company’s products amid outcry over its role in fueling the popularity of vapes among young people.

"The agency, after reviewing scientific data provided by the company, concluded that Juul’s electronic cigarette device and refillable cartridges in tobacco and menthol flavors can help adult cigarette users reduce smoking or switch to less harmful products, outweighing the risk to youth.

...

"The news comes a few days after the Vapor Technology Association, an industry group, said it launched a seven-figure ad campaign urging President Donald Trump to draw a distinction between vape products targeting youths and “safer, adult-focused alternatives” touted as smoking-cessation tools. Trump previously offered enthusiastic support for vaping and promised to protect the industry while campaigning in 2024.

...

"A 2024 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention survey found vapes were the most common tobacco product used by middle- and high-schoolers. About 1.6 million students use electronic cigarettes, according to the survey — and nearly 90 percent of those who vape prefer the flavored liquids, the survey reported.

Thursday’s Juul decision drew immediate outcry from public health groups that assert vapes are addictive and can harm the development of maturing brains."

Nicotine underlip: Zyn, snu to manage (and start) nicotine addiction

Move over vapes: more ways to access nicotine without starting a fire: (I understand these are quite popular among our MBA students...)

  The New Yorker has the story:

Zyn and the New Nicotine Gold Rush. White snus pouches were designed to help Swedish women quit cigarettes. They’ve become a staple for American dudes. By Carrie Battan  March 10, 2025 

"In November, 2024, Sweden was declared “smoke-free” because its adult smoking rate had dipped below five per cent. As smoking has declined, so have related illnesses, such as emphysema; Sweden has one of the lowest rates of lung cancer in the E.U. This shift is broadly described in academic papers as “the Swedish Experience.”

"And yet the Swedes have an immense appetite for nicotine, the addictive chemical found in tobacco. About a third of Swedish people consume nicotine, and they mostly get their fix from snus—small, gossamer pouches that look like dollhouse pillows, which users nestle in their gums. Snus pouches deliver nicotine to the bloodstream through sensitive oral membranes; Swedes refer to the resulting buzz as the nicokick.

...

"Scandinavians have a proud history of snus usage. During the mid-seventeenth century, ground-up sniffing tobacco became popular in the French royal court and made its way to Sweden. Later, working-class Swedes started adding liquid to the powder and placing it against their gums, as a claylike paste. The preportioned pouches that are common today were introduced in the nineteen-seventies, as more people turned to snus in order to stop smoking. In the early nineteen-nineties, when Sweden held a referendum on whether to join the E.U., which had a bloc-wide snus ban, voters adorned their cars with bumper stickers that read, “E.U.? Not without my snus.” Ultimately, Sweden was granted an exemption from the ban in exchange for stricter warning labels.

...

"Until recently, the word “snus” referred solely to a pungent product made of tobacco leaves. But, over the past decade, the earthy brown substance has been joined by white snus, a new product with a characteristically Swedish design elegance. White snus, which consists of pure nicotine mixed with filling agents, has little natural odor and does not stain the teeth the way that the traditional kind can. It was developed by Swedish scientists to appeal to women, a constituency that hadn’t historically taken to brown snus. The creators also had ambitions to eventually reach Americans.

...

"In 2019, after five years of selling in select shops, mostly in the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, Swedish Match took Zyn national. Three years later, sales of nicotine pouches had increased by six hundred and forty-one per cent, and Philip Morris acquired the company for sixteen billion dollars. By this point, Zyn was a mainstay for a growing variety of users: purple-state early adopters, hockey and baseball players, Wall Street guys, medical students, truck drivers, and anyone who could use a quick jolt.

...

"Nicotine can have cardiovascular effects, including heightened blood pressure, heart rate, and cholesterol. Some pouch users complain of mouth lesions from long-term use. Yet more figures in addiction research are acknowledging the importance of smokeless tobacco products in the fight against cigarettes. In a recent interview, Ann McNeill, a pioneering scholar of tobacco addiction, said she’d started to see the benefit of adopting a harm-reduction approach—getting people to trade one dangerous habit for another, significantly less dangerous one. 

...

"Today’s nicotine entrepreneurs cite Juul as both an inspiration and a cautionary tale; the product’s appeal was so broad that teen-agers flocked to it. When the 2024 National Youth Tobacco Survey was published, Coogan and others in the industry were relieved: the rate of underage pouch usage had remained relatively low, at 1.8 per cent. Because of the Juul debacle, Zyn flavors in the U.S. are restricted to mint, coffee, cinnamon, and citrus varieties. "

Super bowl markets in ads and gambling (and also a football game)

 Today is a big celebration of advertising.  But the advertisements have to be fitted into pauses in a football game.  That takes some doing.

The NYT has the story:

During N.F.L. Games, Going to Commercial Requires Its Own Playbook
TV advertising is the lifeblood of the league, but knowing when to pause the games is a task undertaken by N.F.L. executives, network producers and on-field officials.  By Ken Belson

"Most games have 18 commercial breaks. A few timeouts, like at the end of the first and third quarters and at the two-minute warnings, are fixed. The league and networks avoid taking breaks if a team’s opening drive of the game ends quickly, because they want fans to settle into the broadcast. If all goes well, the last commercials run at the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter.

"Most commercial breaks, though, are chosen in real time as league executives, network producers and officials on the field look for natural breaks in the action. Finding them is more art than science because every game unfolds differently, with long drives, three-and-outs, injury timeouts and coaches’ challenges.

...

"The logistics of determining when to call television timeouts require an intricate phone tree over a three-hour game. The referee, who controls when a game starts and stops and can overrule a request for a break, communicates with the back judge, who is in constant contact with two sideline officials standing near the 20-yard line. One of them wears a green hat and represents the league. The other has on orange gloves and works for the network."

 ##############

Gambling (on apps, during the game, about anything and everything) is still relatively new:

Here's the Guardian:

Americans expected to place record $1.39bn in bets for Super Bowl LIX
The US sports betting industry has boomed since 2018 – with it brings a ‘dark side’ as gambling addiction also rises  by Lauren Aratani 

"Since the supreme court overturned a federal law that made sports betting illegal in 2018, the industry has boomed, with 38 states opting to legalize. Gambling revenue hit $99.4bn in 2022, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA), the industry lobby group.

‘A serious disease’: Congress weighs federal gambling crackdown amid growing concerns

Read more

"Super Bowl Sunday – the biggest sports event of the year – will be no exception. Even as TV networks have struggled to maintain audience numbers, with more people tuning in to video content online, the Super Bowl has continued to grow in viewership. In 2024, a record 123 million viewers tuned into the game, making it the most-watched telecast in history.

"The AGA estimated that $1.39bn worth of legal bets will be placed for Super Bowl LIX. This is the first year the trade association reported estimated bets solely from legal channels. In previous years, AGA relied on surveys that included all betting, including those placed illegally and casually among friends. Last year, research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimated $1.25bn of legal bets were placed for the Super Bowl last year.

...

"Betting companies have also become more aggressive at advertising. Last year, BetMGM, the sports betting arm of MGM Resorts, aired a star-studded commercial promoting its platform during the Super Bowl. Fong said that it has all contributed to a normalizing of sports betting in American culture."

FDA Proposes Reducing Nicotine to Nonaddictive Level in Cigarettes: I see 5 possible futures

 Here's the FDA press release:

FDA Proposes Significant Step Toward Reducing Nicotine to Minimally or Nonaddictive Level in Cigarettes and Certain Other Combusted Tobacco Products
Agency Encourages Public Input on Proposal That Aims to Prevent Millions of Premature Deaths 

 " the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a proposed rule that, if finalized, would make cigarettes and certain other combusted tobacco products minimally or nonaddictive by limiting the level of nicotine in those products. If finalized, the United States would be the first country globally to take such a bold, life-saving action to prevent and reduce smoking-related disease and death. The FDA first announced its intent to propose such a ruleExternal Link Disclaimer in 2018, and today’s announcement is an important next step in the rulemaking processExternal Link Disclaimer. The agency intends to seek input on the proposal, including through public comment and the FDA’s Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee"

#########

Here are some predictions of possible outcomes of this proposal.

1. (p>.5) No new regulation: We soon see Trump-branded, musk-flavored high-nicotine cigarettes.  (no lives saved)

Conditional on the proposals being enacted (i.e. p<.5)

2.  Cigarette makers find workarounds (nicotine supplements you can add to your smokes, new organic chemicals functionally equivalent to nicotine, etc. (few lives saved)

3. Black markets emerge: get your full-nicotine cigarettes at the same time you get your Mexican coca cola made with sugar instead of corn syrup. (some lives saved)

4. Smokers switch to non-combustables: Big Tobacco becomes Big vaping, chewing, and under-lip snus, snuff, and oral nicotine pouches. (maybe significant lives saved, but no decrease in nicotine addiction, and maybe substantial increase. Lung cancer down, oral cancers up.)

5. (low probability but we can hope): Smokers quit, and few young people start to smoke: tobacco use drops so low that deaths attributable to smoking drop below those attributable to alcohol or opioids.

Sports gambling presents problems for gamblers, athletes, and sports

 Sports betting has some potentially dire implications both for betters and for athletes and sports. Gamblers can find in-app gambling while the game is going on addictive."Prop" bets on the performance of particular athletes during the game, can also subject athletes to pressures that may be at odds with their incentives arising simply from the rules of the game. And this may open up sports to gambling and point-shaving scandals that have been vigorously suppressed in the past.

Here's a variety of headlines (in sufficient number that I won't summarize the accompanying stories, but you can click through to see them).

The Guardian:

‘A serious disease’: Congress weighs federal gambling crackdown amid growing concerns
With sports betting now legal in 38 states, experts worry that gambling addiction is on the rise  by Callum Jones 

NPR:

The president of the NCAA calls for a ban on 'prop bets' in college sports,  by Becky Sullivan
Becky Sullivan

The Atlantic:

Legalizing Sports Gambling Was a Huge Mistake. The evidence is convincing: The betting industry is ruining lives.  By Charles Fain Lehman

Paul Krugman's substack:

America the Addicted. Gambling — on sports, stocks and crypto — is the new opioids.  by Paul Krugman