Showing posts with label covid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label covid. Show all posts

Friday, December 16, 2022

Covid vaccine coverage in middle and lower income countries, and preparations for future pandemics

 Vaccine rollout to lower and middle income countries left something to be desired.  Some of that has to do with initial distribution when vaccines were scarce, and some has to do with vaccine hesitancy in poor as well as rich countries.  Here are two related views in Science and Nature.

The global plan for COVID-19 vaccine fairness fell short. Will next time be different?  BY GRETCHEN VOGEL, Science, 13 DEC 2022 

"On 8 December, the board of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance—a key partner in the project—voted “in principle” to phase out much of its support for COVID-19 vaccines in middle-income countries starting in 2024, and to incorporate COVID-19 vaccinations into its regular vaccine programs for the poorest countries—if they still want them.

"The decision isn’t final, but critics of COVAX—many from poorer countries—would not mourn its demise. The effort has delivered some 1.84 billion vaccine doses to 146 countries, but many, if not most, arrived too late to have a big impact. “COVAX was completely useless for developing countries,” says Claudia Patricia Vaca González, an expert on access to medicines at the National University of Colombia, Bogotá. “It was a failure and we should admit it,” says Christian Happi, a molecular biologist at Redeemer’s University in Ede, Nigeria.

"Others have a more positive take. “Gavi and COVAX were in my mind transformational and inspirational in their aims,” says Lawrence Gostin, an expert on global health law at Georgetown University. “It got a lot of shots in a lot of arms.” Still, “I totally understand Gavi’s reasoning,” Gostin adds. Demand for COVID-19 vaccines dropped sharply after the pandemic ebbed, and Gavi wants to refocus on campaigns that have lagged during the crisis, including vaccination against the cancer-causing human papillomavirus, and ensuring no child fails to receive routine childhood vaccinations.

...

"Making vaccines where they are needed is the way forward, says Gostin, who thinks it’s unrealistic to expect wealthy countries not to put their own populations first. “Vaccine nationalism is a fact of life.” Vaca González agrees. She says COVAX’s basic premise—buying vaccines developed in wealthy countries from large pharmaceutical firms—was flawed from the start: “That was the original sin of COVAX.”

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Even after COVID, the world’s vaccine strategy is failing. Without a global, publicly funded strategy, the market will fail to deliver vaccines to stop pandemics before they surge. By Seth Berkley, Nature, 13 December 2022.

"Despite rallying to produce billions of doses of vaccines in the face of COVID-19, when it comes to developing vaccines to prevent a disease in the first place, the world is still asleep at the wheel. There is still no incentive for markets to deliver vaccines that can prevent outbreaks, even when the technology is available. If we can’t even have vaccines ready for known severe threats such as Ebola, then what hope is there for future unknown pandemic threats?

...

"The World Health Organization keeps a list of nine priority pathogens with pandemic potential, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Ebola, as well as ‘disease X’, which represents a possible, as-yet-undiscovered pathogen. All nine deserve a full effort: development of several candidate vaccines through the animal-model and early clinical testing stages; vialed and quality-tested vaccines that are ready for immediate testing in an outbreak; and stockpiling of enough doses to control the disease if the vaccine is shown to be efficacious. For disease X, a set of viral vectors and messenger RNA delivery systems should be ready to carry the sequences of whichever antigens prove effective against the disease, and the manufacturing and clinical trials should be worked through as far as possible. By doing much of the preclinical and clinical work in advance, we can have doses as close to ready as possible when we need them.

...

"A key first step is the establishment of an adequate, publicly subsidized market. This will enable a coordinated global strategy with the support of G20 governments to drive the research, development and flexible small-scale manufacturing needed to produce vaccines to prevent epidemics, even if, as we hope, they will not be needed."

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Challenge trials for future Covid vaccines are still needed, by Stanley Plotkin and Josh Morrison

 Covid is still with us, new vaccines are needed and will likely continue to be needed into the forseeable future, and the case for human challenge trials to speed selection among promising candidates is stronger than ever.  Two veteran advocates make the case:

Human Challenge Trials Hold Promise for Next-Generation COVID Vaccines— These investigations could accelerate effective development of a pan-coronavirus vaccine as well by Stanley Plotkin, MD, and Josh Morrison, JD November 7, 2022

"Two years ago, the prospect of deliberately infecting fully informed volunteers with COVID-19 to aid in vaccine research and development was controversial. We and many others argued that the risks were justifiable, and the reservations of some bioethicists did not deter nearly 40,000 people from over 160 countries from expressing interest in volunteering for these investigations, called human challenge trials. Yet in the end, while they have been extensively pursued in the U.K.*, there were no such studies in the U.S.

"We have made great strides against COVID-19 illness in the form of vaccination and treatments, but there are still thousands of deaths in the U.S. every week.

...

"The White House hosted a summit on the issue in July, showcasing the myriad ways researchers are going about developing new vaccines. There are hundreds of candidates in early stages around the world, but the resources devoted to COVID-19 vaccine research are a fraction of what they were 2 years ago. Human challenge trials can greatly speed the selection of the most promising in this field of candidates, providing scientific and economic benefits over uniform reliance on large field studies.

...

"The use of human challenge trials offers the greatest promise for testing intranasal vaccines for their ability to reduce infection and transmission. In the case of a live attenuated vaccine, something as simple as regular nasal swabbing can reveal just how much of the live virus is present in the nose over time -- and how much would spread when a patient sneezes, for example.

...

"There are obviously risks to COVID-19 challenge studies, and it was on these grounds that initial proposals for such research faced opposition. However, the risk of death is now lower than it was early on in the pandemic given better immune protection garnered from both vaccination and natural exposure, and various treatments options further reduce the risk.

Of course, long-COVID still looms large, but this risk can also be managed by selecting trial participants at lower risk of serious illness, as more severe COVID-19 illness is correlated with lingering post-COVID symptoms. Ultimately, if COVID-19 becomes endemic, long-COVID may well be a threat to everyone, whether or not they sign up for a challenge trial -- all the more reason we must act quickly to develop vaccines that stop transmission.

"We believe that volunteers are perfectly capable of considering these risks rationally. Those who decide to make a potential sacrifice for the good of humanity should be lauded, not dismissed as naive. (Notably, a study of the nearly 40,000-strong prospective volunteers organized by 1Day Sooner showed that their risk tolerance was the same as a control group, and they were driven primarily by altruistic motivations.)"


"Stanley Plotkin, MD, is professor emeritus in pediatrics at the University of Pennsylvania, a veteran vaccinologist, and a board member of 1Day Sooner, an organization that advocates on behalf of challenge trial volunteers. Josh Morrison, JD, is co-founder and president of 1Day Sooner, and a founder of Waitlist Zero and the Rikers Debate Project."

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Earlier:

Monday, June 20, 2022

Report of a SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trial. In Britain.


* Josh Morrison writes:

there are four COVID challenge studies announced or underway in the UK, though only imperial [the study above] has published results. Besides the imperial one, there’s an Oxford reinfection study, 

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-04-19-human-challenge-trial-launches-study-immune-response-covid-19 (interestingly the talk one of our staff saw indicated they were having a difficult time getting any infections in previously infected people even when using doses 1,000 times higher than the infectious imperial dose).

 

There has also been an Imperial delta study that’s recruiting now — 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/infectious-disease/research/human-challenge/covhic002/register-your-interest/

 

And HVIVO has announced an omicron challenge study, though I’m not sure that will happen. 

https://investors.vaxart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vaxart-announces-agreement-hvivo-develop-worlds-first-human


Monday, June 20, 2022

Report of a SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trial. In Britain.

 The May issue of Nature Medicine reports what I am pretty sure was the first covid challenge trial. It was a small one, designed to track how the viral load develops after infection, to see how quickly tests detect infection, and to check procedures to pave the way for subsequent challenge trials.  Recall that a challenge trial, also called a human infection trial, is one in which the participants are deliberately exposed to the disease, and then reside in the hospital under close medical observation and care.

Killingley, B., Mann, A.J., Kalinova, M., Boyers, A., Goonawardane, N., Zhou, J., Lindsell, K., Hare, S.S., Brown, J., Frise, R. and Smith, E., 2022. Safety, tolerability and viral kinetics during SARS-CoV-2 human challenge in young adults. Nature Medicine, 28(5), May, 1031-1041.

"36 volunteers aged 18–29 years without evidence of previous infection or vaccination were inoculated with 10 TCID50 of a wild-type virus (SARS-CoV-2/human/GBR/484861/2020) intranasally in an open-label, non-randomized study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04865237; funder, UK Vaccine Taskforce). After inoculation, participants were housed in a high-containment quarantine unit, with 24-hour close medical monitoring and full access to higher-level clinical care."

...

"Written informed consent was obtained from all volunteers before screening and study enrollment. Participants were given a donation of up to £4,565 to compensate for the time and inconvenience of taking part in the study (including at least a 17-day quarantine). This was calculated using the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) formula and the UK national living wage."

Two of the volunteers were found to have previous antibodies, and of the remaining 34, 53% (18 people) were infected with the disease after 5 days.  

Here's a schematic of how the trial proceeded, starting with almost 27,000 people who volunteered online to participate in the trial, from which the final 36 participants were chosen.




In contrast, the Phase 3 clinical trial of the Pfizer vaccine had almost 22,000 people in the vaccine group and in the placebo group, and reported after four months that only 8  participants in the vaccinated group had contracted the disease, compared to 162 in the placebo group.  So the vaccine was 95% effective (only 5% of the 170 infections were in the vaccinated group).

Big (Phase 3) vaccine trials aren't comparable to small preliminary trials, so my point here is just that in the challenge trial the rate of infection of unvaccinated volunteers in 5 days is more than fifty times that rate over four months in the traditional clinical trial, in which participants go about their lives and get infected by chance.  That's one of the reasons that challenge trials offer the possibility of fast and efficient testing.

***********

When the study was completed, in 2021, the NY Times published a column with the headline

Britain Infected Volunteers With the Coronavirus. Why Won’t the U.S.?,  By Kate Murphy Oct. 14, 2021

It ended with the following paragraph:

"As one participant in Britain’s Covid human challenge trial put it: “You know the phrase ‘one interesting fact about yourself’ that strikes terror into everyone? That’s now solved forever. I did something that made a difference.”

***********

Of course challenge trials are controversial in lots of ways. See some discussion here of the ethics of paying challenge participants. 

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Paying participants in challenge trials of Covid-19 vaccines, by Ambuehl, Ockenfels, and Roth

"we note that increasing hourly pay by a risk-compensation percentage as proposed in the target article provides compensation proportional to risk only if the risk increases proportionally with the number of hours worked. (Some risky tasks take little time; imagine challenge trials to test bulletproof vests.) "

Monday, June 6, 2022

The return of convalescent plasma as a treatment for Covid

 As evidence accumulates, it appears that convalescent plasma helps some patients with Covid.  Here's an article from Medpage

COVID Convalescent Plasma Finds a Therapeutic Role. — Growing evidence shows benefits in the immunocompromised

by Arturo Casadevall, MD, PhD, Jeffrey P. Henderson MD, PhD, Brenda J. Grossman, MD, MPH, Michael J. Joyner, MD, Shmuel Shoham, MD, Nigel Paneth, MD, MPH, and Liise-anne Pirofski, MD June 19, 2022

"In the dark days of the early COVID-19 pandemic, when there was no known therapy, COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) brought a ray of hope. COVID-19 survivors, community organizers, clinicians, regulators, and blood bankers collaborated to quickly bring CCP to patients. First used at the end of March 2020 in the U.S., 40% of all hospitalized patients were being treated with CCP by October 2020, considerable progress for a treatment without pharmaceutical industry support.

"Since those early days, CCP use has largely fallen off based on insufficient evidence of efficacy in hospitalized patients and the availability of other therapies. But growing evidence has shown benefits of CCP in a population with diminished treatment options and vaccine responses: the immunocompromised. This population encompasses about 3% of the population and their needs have been relatively neglected in treatment guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic.

...

"As the pandemic progressed, further evidence showing that CCP was effective when used early and with high antibody content emerged, strengthening support for the FDA EUA in specific groups. However, with evidence of widespread benefit being considered insufficient in the broader patient population, CCP was largely branded as ineffective, collections dropped, and little or no CCP was available when Omicron surged in early 2022.

...

"The continued needs of immunocompromised patients and the discovery that CCP obtained from vaccinated convalescent donors possess extremely high levels of antibodies that neutralize all known variants to date, including Omicron, have promoted a CCP comeback. CCP use is now recommended for immunocompromised patients by multiple major professional organizations, including the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) and the Association for the Advancement of Blood and Biotherapies (AABB).

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Earlier:

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Sunday, May 1, 2022

Beyond vaccines: Bill Gates on drug development for the next pandemic

 In the NYT:

Bill Gates: How to Develop Life-Saving Drugs Much Faster

"The Covid-19 pandemic would look very different if scientists had been able to develop a treatment sooner. The death rates are likely to have been far lower, and it may have been harder for myths and misinformation to spread the way they did.

...

"We’re lucky that scientists made Covid vaccines as quickly as they did — if they hadn’t, the death toll would be far worse. But in the event of another pandemic, even if the world is able to develop a vaccine for a new pathogen in 100 days, it will still take a long time to get the vaccine to most of the population. This is especially true if you need two or more doses for full and continued protection. If the pathogen is especially transmissible and deadly, a therapeutic drug could save tens of thousands or more.

"Even once there is a vaccine, we’ll still need good therapeutics. As we’ve seen with Covid, not everyone who can take a vaccine will choose to do so. And, along with non-pharmaceutical interventions, therapeutics can reduce the strain on hospitals, which would prevent the overcrowding that ultimately means that some patients die who otherwise wouldn’t.

...

"All of which is to say: Therapeutics are fundamentally important in an outbreak. To understand what caused the delay in drugs and how we can avoid such delays in the future, we need to take a tour through the world of therapeutics: what they are, how they get from the lab to the market, why they didn’t fare better early in this pandemic and how innovation can set the stage for a better response in the future.

...

"One of the keys to ensuring that health care workers have better treatment options in the next big outbreak than they did for Covid will be investing in large libraries of drug compounds that researchers can quickly scan to see whether existing therapies work against new pathogens. Some of these libraries exist already, but the world needs more. We need libraries that cover many types of drugs, but the most promising, in my view, are those known as pan-family and broad-spectrum therapies — either antibodies or drugs that can treat a wide range of viral infections, especially those that are likely to cause a pandemic."

Sunday, February 13, 2022

The future pandemic that has already started making an appearance

I never expected the Covid pandemic: I was expecting a different one, coming not from a virus but from an antibiotic-resistant bacteria.  That one is still in our future, but here's an article that indicates that there are many bacterial candidates that could start something big, and taken together they are already starting to loom on the horizon.

In the Lancet (Available online 19 January 2022, In Press, Corrected Proof):

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis  By the  Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators 

"Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen–drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date.

...

"Findings: On the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4·95 million (3·62–6·57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1·27 million (95% UI 0·911–1·71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27·3 deaths per 100 000 (20·9–35·3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6·5 deaths (4·3–9·4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1·5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000–1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3·57 million (2·62–4·78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen–drug combination, meticillin-resistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributable to AMR in 2019, while six more each caused 50 000–100 000 deaths: multidrug-resistant excluding extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, fluoroquinolone-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae, and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae.

"Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR, as well as an evaluation of the availability of data. AMR is a leading cause of death around the world, with the highest burdens in low-resource settings. Understanding the burden of AMR and the leading pathogen–drug combinations contributing to it is crucial to making informed and location-specific policy decisions, particularly about infection prevention and control programmes, access to essential antibiotics, and research and development of new vaccines and antibiotics. There are serious data gaps in many low-income settings, emphasising the need to expand microbiology laboratory capacity and data collection systems to improve our understanding of this important human health threat."

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Earlier:

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Sunday, September 19, 2021

Stanford welcomes students back to campus

Starting tomorrow, we'll have classes in person, indoors, masked.



Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Participating in a Covid challenge trial: a participant's experience

 The WSJ's Jenny Strasburg has another story on British challenge trials of Covid-19:

Researchers Infect Volunteers With Coronavirus, Hoping to Conquer Covid-19. So-called challenge trials have long been used to study infections, but so far only the U.K. is doing them for Covid-19   By Jenny Strasburg

"On March 8, 23-year-old Jacob Hopkins, a U.K. university student, watched researchers enter his quarantine room’s airlocked entrance at London’s Royal Free Hospital. They wheeled a cart carrying a big red box, like a picnic cooler, labeled “biohazard.”

...

"A few days after the virus was dripped into his nose, he was shivering with a mild case of Covid-19, with the antiviral remdesivir pumped through a thin tube inserted into his arm. He spent 19 days in quarantine and said he felt fully recuperated a month later. He will ultimately be paid about £6,000, equivalent to $8,300, for that time, a year of follow-up tests and phone calls, and a parallel study he agreed to. Trial payments are based on U.K. living wages and go through ethical review."

...

"All volunteers are 18 to 30 years old and screened for known risk factors. They are isolated in quarantine suites with full-time medical care and specialized air systems to contain the virus. Researchers hope to publish peer-reviewed initial findings from the first phase of the challenge trials by this autumn.

...

"Researchers hope trial data will shed light on the durability of immune protection and how Covid-19 affects breathing, heart function, smell and concentration even before symptoms show. They say the model could test new vaccines and treatments head-to-head, eliminating weaker candidates before expensive, large-scale trials. Transmission data could help authorities prioritize who gets booster doses.

************

As an observer of repugnant/controversial transactions, I've been following the challenge trial discussion, including in particular about appropriate payments for participants.  There's a part of the medical ethics literature that worries that payments to volunteers might be 'coercive,' particularly to poor volunteers, and that payments should therefore be as small as possible, e.g. minimum wage payments for time spent, and that some things (such as risk) should not be compensated. My colleagues and I have been among those pointing out that there can also be ethical (as well as practical) issues involved in paying too little (or in providing too little post-trial medical care and insurance).


Here are some earlier posts focusing on articles I've coauthored about compensation for participation in challenge trials:

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Paying participants in challenge trials of Covid-19 vaccines, by Ambuehl, Ockenfels, and Roth

"we note that increasing hourly pay by a risk-compensation percentage as proposed in the target article provides compensation proportional to risk only if the risk increases proportionally with the number of hours worked. (Some risky tasks take little time; imagine challenge trials to test bulletproof vests.) "


Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Covid reduced transplants worldwide (but relatively little in the U.S.)

 The Covid pandemic reduced transplants, more in some countries than in others.  Here's a survey from  the Lancet, covering 22 countries (with more authors than countries):

COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide organ transplantation: a population-based study by Olivier Aubert, MD Daniel Yoo, MPH Dina Zielinski, PhD Emanuele Cozzi, MD Massimo Cardillo, MD Michael Dürr, MD Beatriz Domínguez-Gil, MD Elisabeth Coll, MD Margarida Ivo Da Silva, MD Ville Sallinen, MD Karl Lemström, MD Karsten Midtvedt, MD Camilo Ulloa, MD Franz Immer, MD Annemarie Weissenbacher, MD Natalie Vallant, MD Nikolina Basic-Jukic, MD Kazunari Tanabe, MD Georgios Papatheodoridis, PhD Georgia Menoudakou, MSc Martin Torres, MD Carlos Soratti, MD Daniela Hansen Krogh Carmen Lefaucheur, MD Gustavo Ferreira, MD Helio Tedesco Silva Jr, MD David Hartell, MA John Forsythe, MD Lisa Mumford, MSc Peter P Reese, MD François Kerbaul, MD Christian Jacquelinet, MD Serge Vogelaar, MD Vassilios Papalois, MD Alexandre Loupy, MD 

"In this population-based, observational, before-and-after study, we collected and validated nationwide cohorts of consecutive kidney, liver, lung, and heart transplants from 22 countries. Data were collected from Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2020, along with data from the same period in 2019. The analysis was done from the onset of the 100th cumulative COVID-19 case through to Dec 31, 2020. We assessed the effect of the pandemic on the worldwide organ transplantation rate and the disparity in transplant numbers within each country.

...

"Transplant activity in all countries studied showed an overall decrease during the pandemic. Kidney transplantation was the most affected, followed by lung, liver, and heart."

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Here's a figure of percentage reduction in transplants, overall and by organ, for each country.  The U.S. performance was relatively good.




Sunday, September 5, 2021

Australia and England swap millions of vaccine doses

Barter can increase efficiency. The Financial Times has the story:

Australia strikes deal to ‘swap’ 4m vaccine doses with UK  by William Langley and Oliver Barnes 

"The UK will send 4m Covid-19 vaccine doses to Australia in a swap deal aimed at accelerating Canberra’s stuttering rollout and bolstering British supplies later in the year when ministers are pushing for a booster campaign. 

"The first batch of 292,000 BioNTech/Pfizer doses will arrive in Australia in the coming days, with the remainder due by the end of the month, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Friday. 

"Australia will return an equivalent 4m doses before the end of the year, according to the UK health department.

"The deal is designed to speed up Australia’s vaccination rollout, which has been one of the slowest in the world, and Morrison said it would allow the government to bring forward its prospective reopening date.

"It reflects the UK’s calculation that it does not currently need all its stockpiled doses, which expire in a matter of months if not used, while allowing London to boost supplies later this year in anticipation of a broad booster campaign and the vaccination of 12 to 15-year-olds."


Saturday, July 24, 2021

Marketplace for supplies to produce vaccines: COVAX

 Scott Kominers sends me the following link, of a marketplace intended to notify vaccine makers of supplies that may be available:

The COVAX Marketplace

"The COVAX Marketplace aims to accelerate the global production of COVID-19 vaccine doses for COVAX by matching existing suppliers of critical inputs with vaccine manufacturers who urgently need them to produce vaccines for fair and equitable distribution through COVAX

...

"The COVAX Marketplace is a key deliverable of the COVAX Manufacturing Task Force. It aims to respond quickly to immediate market needs and bottlenecks and improve the free flow of critical COVID-19 vaccine supplies by:

Providing suppliers with a platform to allocate and reallocate unused materials.

– Mobilising idle stock from vaccines and candidates that fail prior to gaining regulatory approval – as well as from those that might scale down their production in the future.

– Mobilising potential surplus stock from manufacturers with non-vaccine activities.

...

"The initial version of the Marketplace will include COVAX vaccine manufacturers and suppliers of the key materials that have been identified as being most urgently needed.

"Participants in the COVAX Marketplace will be able to offer and request any materials required for vaccine production through the Marketplace, but it will initially focus on six categories of supplies that have been identified as critical: bioreactor bags, single use assemblies, cell culture media, filters, lipids, vials, and stoppers.

...

"Matches negotiate and conclude the transaction between themselves, independently of the Marketplace. Pairs notify CEPI on successful closure."

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Other posts on supply chains.


Monday, July 12, 2021

Congestion in transit in supply chains: pipeline inventory

 The recovery from the pandemic is revealing as many supply issues as the pandemic itself did. Here's an article in Forbes about congestion in transportation

How Traffic Congestion In Chicago Is Backing Things Up In Los Angeles: Pipeline Inventory Is Now A Big Logistics Problem  by Willy Shih 

"As retailers try to bring a surge of imports into their distribution centers, they are exceeding the capacity of logistics providers to move them through choked hubs like the Union Pacific Global 4 intermodal terminal in Joliet, Illinois outside of Chicago. A shortage of truck chassis means its difficult to get containers out of the terminal to warehouses, that in turn leads to congestion that makes it is difficult to unload trains. According to a recent discussion hosted by the Journal of Commerce on top importers, that means the traffic has backed up to the marine terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach, and to a lesser extent Seattle/Tacoma. That’s why now would be a good time to understand what we mean by pipeline inventory.

...

"All those containers stuck at UP Global 4 are pipeline inventory for somebody, and rail congestion out of West Coast ports means pipeline inventory is building up there (and remember it’s on trucks and trains as well). The Port of Los Angeles Signal report for last week projects import volumes up 54.9% this week and 71.6% next week, with big jumps in on-dock and off-dock rail containers. So that furniture or freezer you are waiting for might be sitting in a container stack in a yard somewhere.

...

"The key question is will those goods stuck in pipeline inventory make it to the consumer while the demand is still there? The recent precipitous collapse in lumber prices suggests that as Americans shift towards a more normal consumption pattern, we might end up with a lot more of some goods than retailers planned. Neglect of pipeline inventory, or increased ordering to make up for the pipeline lag, is one of the major causes of the bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sophisticated retailers like Walmart or Target are probably always on top of how much inventory they have in the pipeline, but the challenge is will the demand still be there when those goods finally arrive? For fashion retailers, this could be “Hello, TJX” as they end up looking for help to liquidate excess inventory."

Thursday, July 1, 2021

Data for the people: Emily Oster in the NY Times

The NY Times writes about Emily Oster, who has pioneered a new way for an economist to be a public intellectual, by bringing to a general audience her skills at assembling and interpreting data on a wide variety of subjects, including parenting (is it ok to drink a glass of wine while pregnant?) and the Covid pandemic (how to decide when schools should reopen?)

She Fought to Reopen Schools, Becoming a Hero and a Villain. The economist Emily Oster offers loads of data-driven advice about children and Covid-19. Many parents live by her words. Others say she’s dangerous. By Dana Goldstein

"This steady stream of counterintuitive advice has made Dr. Oster a lodestar for a certain set of parents, generally college-educated, liberal and affluent. Many had first latched onto her data-driven child-rearing books. Her popularity grew during the pandemic, as she collected case counts of Covid-19 in schools and advanced her own strongly held views on the importance of returning to in-person learning.

"Some parents said, half-seriously, “Emily Oster is my C.D.C.”

"But others — teachers, epidemiologists and labor activists — criticized her, pointing out that she was not an infectious disease expert, nor did she have any deep personal or professional experience with public education. "

Saturday, June 26, 2021

Covid and COVAX, lessons being learned for the next pandemic

 From the Lancet:

A beautiful idea: how COVAX has fallen short by Ann Danaiya Usher, June 19, 2021DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01367-2

"At the pledging summit for COVAX on June 2, 2021, hosted by Japan, Gavi finally reached its US$8·3 billion ask for the procurement and delivery of vaccines for the 92 eligible low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) this year. However, even with full financing, the COVAX roll-out has moved much more slowly than that in high-income countries (HICs). Speaker after speaker at the summit lamented the gross inequity in access to vaccines. “Today, ten countries have administered 75% of all COVID-19 vaccines, but, in poor countries, health workers and people with underlying conditions cannot access them. This is not only manifestly unjust, it is also self-defeating”, UN secretary general António Guterres told the gathering. “COVAX has delivered over 72 million doses to 125 countries. But that is far less than 172 million it should have delivered by now.” Of the 2·1 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses administered worldwide so far, COVAX has been responsible for less than 4%.

...

"COVAX, managed by Gavi, along with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and WHO, was designed to stand on two legs: one for HICs, which would pay for their own vaccines, and the other for 92 lower-income countries, whose doses would be financed by donor aid.

"In the so-called self-financing leg of COVAX, HICs were asked to pay upfront by mid-September, 2020, for the option to buy vaccines for their own populations. The UK, for example, paid £71 million for 27 million doses from COVAX, and Canada paid CA$220 million for 15 million doses. Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and South Korea also bought vaccine options from COVAX as self-financing countries.

"In the other leg of COVAX, vaccines for lower-income countries would be financed with donor grants through an Advance Market Commitment (AMC). The poorest of the 92 countries would receive them at no cost. Team Europe (led by Germany) and the USA have together provided US$5 billion to the COVAX AMC, Japan has given US$1 billion, and the UK, US$735 million. Most of these funds have been pledged only in the past few months.

"The grand idea of COVAX was that the combination of these two funding streams—the self-financed part and the aid-financed AMC—would give the facility the means to invest in research and development of several promising vaccine candidates. Additionally, as a pooled procurement mechanism, COVAX would have the financial muscle as a buyer to drive down prices for all participants. Once any of the COVAX portfolio vaccines had successfully undergone clinical trials and proved themselves to be both safe and effective, both self-financing and AMC countries would be allocated vaccines at the same rate, proportional to their total population size.

...

"Everyone knew that rich countries would enter into bilateral vaccine deals, Yamey said. But it was hoped that they would also buy into COVAX as insurance in case some vaccine candidates did not prove successful. Most of them did not. In the end, “three dozen countries bypassed COVAX and made huge deals directly with manufacturers. They were very lucky that the vaccines worked out. And since they cleared the shelves, there were not enough doses left for COVAX”, he said.

...

"The report of the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response also pointed to the harm caused by the slow mobilisation of resources for COVAX: “Had COVAX had sufficient and readily available early funding it would have been better able to secure enough immediate supply to meet its aims”, it states.

...

"The original notion of a global vaccine hub more or less collapsed, and COVAX ended up using a traditional aid-financed approach, which has left lower-income countries wholly at the mercy of wealthy nations and profit-driven companies.

“It is still this model of seeing how much money you can bring in and then seeing what you can negotiate with industry based on that money”, said Elder. “The promise of COVAX from the beginning that it would be the most attractive buyer for industry because it represented the ‘global need’ obviously did not pan out.” For any future iterations of COVAX, Taylor has argued that since national leaders have a responsibility to protect their own populations, vaccine nationalism is inevitable and this should be integrated into the design from the start.

"Several global health experts point to the failure to recognise supply constraints as a major obstacle to global vaccination and emphasise diversifying and scaling up manufacturing from the beginning. This lack of recognition was a serious flaw in the COVAX design, said Gostin. “Supply shortages should have been anticipated and ramping up supplies should have been baked into the design of COVAX from the start.

Monday, May 17, 2021

The pandemic and the job market for economists

 It's been a tough year on the academic job market. Here's hoping it recovers quickly.

Committee chair John Cawley submitted the following Report of the Ad Hoc Committee  on the Job Market  AEA Papers and Proceedings 2021, 111: 801–802 https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.111.801

" To share information about how COVID-19 is affecting the job market for PhD economists, we have regularly released memos providing information on the demand and supply of new PhD economists. These memos can be found on our committee’s webpage, but below is a summary of the most recent information.

a. Regarding labor demand: the overall number of job openings on JOE in 2020 was down 26.5 percent from 2019. The number of full-time academic jobs in the United States was down 52.8 percent, and the number of full-time academic jobs outside the United States (and listed on JOE) was down 20.3 percent. The number of fulltime nonacademic jobs listed on JOE was down 17.7 percent from 2019.

b. Regarding labor supply: the number of new JOE job candidate accounts created by students was down 19.1 percent from 2019, and the number of people sending AEA signals was down 14.9 percent."

Friday, April 30, 2021

Not all excess mortality during the pandemic comes from infection: overdose deaths in Cook County

 A recent paper in JAMA reminds us that not all excess mortality during the pandemic is due to infection with Covid-19:

Mason M, Arukumar P, Feinglass J. The Pandemic Stay-at-Home Order and Opioid-Involved Overdose Fatalities. JAMA. Published online April 23, 2021. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.6700

"A total of 4283 opioid overdose fatalities occurred in Cook County from January 2018-December 2020, ranging from 12 to 53 weekly (eFigure in the Supplement). There was a mean of 23.0 deaths per week during the initial 100-week period (2018-2019), with little apparent seasonal variation. During the subsequent 15 weeks beginning in December 2019, deaths increased to a mean of 35.1 per week, followed by an even more pronounced increase during the 11-week stay-at-home order: 44.1 mean weekly deaths. In the 29 weeks after the stay-at-home order was lifted mean weekly deaths sharply declined and then began to increase toward the end of the period, at 32.7 deaths. Although deaths have declined below the peak weekly numbers seen during the stay-at-home period, opioid overdose deaths following the stay-at-home period remain elevated above pre-2020 levels."



Friday, March 26, 2021

Ethical payment for research participation

 Discussions of ethical questions turn out to have less math or data than other discussions, but more, well, discussion...  Here's our reply to issues raised in the prior discussion in the preceding issues of the American Journal of Bioethics.

Holly Fernandez Lynch, Thomas C. Darton, Jae Levy, Frank McCormick, Ubaka Ogbogu, Ruth O. Payne, Alvin E. Roth, Akilah Jefferson Shah, Thomas Smiley & Emily A. Largent (2021) Plumbing the Depths of Ethical Payment for Research Participation, The American Journal of Bioethics, DOI: 10.1080/15265161.2021.1895364

"In closing, we’ll respond to Savulescu’s lamentation that our article did not offer “a full economic evaluation of a proposed HIC study such as the UK, with a proposal for a specific amount” (2021). Although we understand this criticism, and considered it ourselves, we were hesitant to make this final move, as there are several different amounts and rationales that could be ethically justified under our framework. Nonetheless, analyzing a particular protocol and the range of payment offers that might be justifiable would be a compelling next step."

Monday, March 1, 2021

Compensating challenge vaccine trial participants: further discussion in the American Journal of Bioethics

 The AJB invites commentaries on its target articles, and the comments on our article on payments in human infection challenge trials have now appeared.  (If I've done this right, you can read them by clicking on the links below.) This is from The American Journal of Bioethics, Volume 21, Issue 3 (2021)

Our target article points out that while much of the medical ethics literature focuses on the claim that payments can subject potential participants, particularly poor people, to undue influence or coercion by being too large, there can be a countervailing concern that payments that are too small can be exploitative, and that this might often be the greater ethical concern.

The commentaries are all brief, but there are nine of them, so let me recommend to my regular market design readers that two that might be rewarding to begin with are those by Julian Savulescu, and by Seán O’Neill McPartlin & Josh Morrison.

Target Article
Open Peer Commentaries
Article commentary
Pages: 32-34
Published online: 22 Feb 2021
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Article commentary
Pages: 35-37
Published online: 22 Feb 2021
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Article commentary
Pages: 43-45
Published online: 22 Feb 2021
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Article commentary
Pages: 45-47
Published online: 22 Feb 2021
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