Showing posts with label prediction markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction markets. Show all posts
Sunday, July 5, 2026

Prediction markets, polling, and insider trading

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 My book about controversial markets has attracted some interest from people following prediction markets.  Here's another recent interv...
Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Sports Betting, Prediction Markets, and ‘Repugnant Transactions’--a conversation at Covers.com

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 I was recently interviewed at the gambling hyper-site Covers.com about the growth of sports gambling both on dedicated sites and on predict...
Sunday, June 28, 2026

The moral economics of prediction markets, in the NYT

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 As part of it's Dealbook feature, the NYT yesterday included this conversation about The moral economics of prediction markets "Th...
Friday, April 24, 2026

Playing dirty on Polymarket--Insider trading on information, and on manipulation

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Here are news reports on two kinds of insider trading on prediction markets: predicting what you are (or someone close to you is) going to d...
Friday, May 2, 2025

How the 1930's looked in 1930, in Haaretz---"Misjudgment of the Nazis"

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 The future is the hardest thing to predict. Here's a recent story in Haaretz, looking back at their reporting from Germany in 1930 (and...
Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Repugnant prediction markets on a blockchain (Augur)

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Augur is a decentralized (i.e. unmoderated) prediction market, built on a blockchain.  Somewhere there is a fundamental law of internet th...
Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Harvard Nobel Prediction Market

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Ran Shorrer asks me to post the following announcement: It's that time of the year again! The recipients of the  Nobel Memorial Priz...
1 comment:
Sunday, December 19, 2010

Prizes for solutions to problems

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An Australian firm, Kaggle , hosts problem solving and prediction competitions, and describes itself this way: "Kaggle is an innovativ...
Sunday, December 6, 2009

DARPA Red balloons at MIT

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The DARPA network challenge has been won by the MIT team: MIT wins $40,000 prize in nationwide balloon-hunt contest "On MIT's Web...
Tuesday, November 3, 2009

The DARPA network challenge

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DARPA will pay $40,000 to whoever (whichever team) first reports the locations of ten weather balloons to be inflated December 5, around the...
3 comments:

Build your own prediction market

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Build your own, using the platform at http://inklingmarkets.com/
Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Market prediction and the Challenger disaster

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Michael Trick has a post on Models, Information, and Market Rationality which shows a graph of the stock prices of Morton Thiokol, Lockheed...

Prediction markets and Olympic cities

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Over at MidasOracle.org the word is that Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016 , despite the predictions of a number of well known predict...
1 comment:
Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Jury design

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How to design a committee to determine when a probability is "beyond a reasonable doubt?" That's the task facing juries in cri...
3 comments:
Monday, March 9, 2009

Prediction markets: why aren't they used more?

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While prediction markets have a distinguished history , and are currently used in some interesting applications , the Economist magazine wri...
1 comment:
Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Prediction markets--history

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Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective by Paul W. Rhode, Koleman Strumpf - #14377 (DAE) Abstract: Political fu...
Thursday, October 2, 2008

Prediction Markets at Best Buy

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Best Buy is running one of the largest internal corporate prediction markets . The experiment raises interesting questions about incentives ...