How much compensation for U.S. kidney donors would end the kidney transplant shortage?

 Here's a paper with a forbidding title but an important message (and an eye-catching first paragraph...:)

McCormick, Frank, Philip J. Held, Glenn M. Chertow, Thomas G. Peters, and John P. Roberts. "Projecting the economic impact of compensating living kidney donors in the United States: cost-benefit analysis demonstrates substantial patient and societal gains." Value in Health Volume 25, Issue 12, December 2022, Pages 2028-2033

"Abstract:

Objectives: The aim of this study was to show how the US government could save approximately 47 000 patients with chronic kidney failure each year from suffering on dialysis and premature death by compensating living kidney donors enough to completely end the kidney shortage.

Methods: Supply and demand analysis was used to estimate the number of donated kidneys needed to end the kidney shortage and the level of compensation required to encourage this number of donations. These results were then input into a detailed cost-benefit analysis to estimate the economic value of kidney transplantation to (1) the average kidney recipient and their caregiver, (2) taxpayers, and (3) society in general.

Results: We estimate half of patients diagnosed with kidney failure each year—approximately 62 000 patients—could be saved from suffering on dialysis and premature death if they could receive an average of 1½ kidney transplants. However, currently there are only enough donated kidneys to save approximately 15 000 patients. To encourage sufficient donations to save the other 47 000 patients, the government would have to compensate living kidney donors approximately $77 000 (±50%) per donor. The value of transplantation to an average kidney recipient (and caregiver) would be approximately $1.5 million, and the savings from the recipient not needing expensive dialysis treatments would be approximately $1.2 million.

Conclusions: This analysis reveals the huge benefit that compensating living kidney donors would provide to patients with kidney failure and their caregivers and, conversely, the huge cost that is being imposed on these patients and their families by the current legal prohibition against such compensation."

and here's the first paragraph:

"Economics Nobel Laureate Alvin Roth has played a crucial role in developing paired kidney donation, which is currently saving >1100 US patients with kidney failure per year from suffering on dialysis and dying prematurely. Nevertheless, Professor Roth often points out that this is a victory in a war that we are losing.1 The number of patients diagnosed with kidney failure each year in the United States is not only much greater than the number who receive kidney transplants; it is rising at a faster rate.2,3 Thus, the number of patients diagnosed with kidney failure who are fated to suffer on dialysis for an average of 4 to 5 years while their health steadily deteriorates until they die prematurely has trended upward and is now >100 000 per year."