College admissions in the UK during the pandemic: exams replaced by teacher assessments, algorithms, appeals and disorder

Many exams around the world have been cancelled because of corona virus. For college admissions, which operates on a strict schedule (despite the facts that college is going remote in many places), exam scores have been estimated by teachers and/or algorithms. (That is to say, exams, which are noisy measures of aptitude and accomplishment, are being replaced by noisy predictions of exam performance...)

Wired summarizes the situation in the UK, where exam results are especially salient, since universities issue acceptances conditional on grades:

An Algorithm Determined UK Students' Grades. Chaos Ensued  by Amit Katwala

"This year's A-Levels, the high-stakes exams taken in high school, were canceled due to the pandemic. The alternative only exacerbated existing inequities."

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"The coronavirus pandemic means exams were canceled and replaced with teacher assessments and algorithms. It has created chaos.

"In Scotland, the government was forced to completely change tack after tens of thousands of students were downgraded by an algorithm that changed grades based on a school’s previous performance and other factors. Anticipating similar scenes for today’s A-level results, the government in England has introduced what it’s calling a ‘triple lock’—whereby, via stages of appeals, students will effectively get to choose their grade from a teacher assessment, their mock exam results, or a resit to be taken in the autumn.

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So, chaos ensued. The Guardian gives us a taste:

Ofqual 'blindsided' government by revoking A-level appeals process: Move by regulator could leave thousands of students without university places by Richard Adams and Heather Stewart

"The government’s attempts to fix this summer’s broken A-level and GCSE results have been thrown into chaos after the exam regulator Ofqual revoked the appeals process for schools and students that it had published only a few hours earlier.

"The move, which was caused by internal disagreements over the appeals process, could leave thousands of A-level candidates in limbo, including those trying to secure places at universities this autumn by overturning the grades awarded to them by Ofqual’s algorithm.

"The guidance was revoked late on Saturday night, less than eight hours after it was published, leaving school leaders and exam boards bewildered.

"Insiders said Ofqual had “blindsided” the Department for Education, after ministers had endorsed the guidance just two hours earlier.

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"The controversy is set to deepen on Thursday when GCSE results are published for more than 600,000 year 11 pupils in England. As many as 2m assessments submitted by teachers could be downgraded by Ofqual’s model, which relies on a school’s past performance and each pupil’s previous results from primary school.

"Analysis published by the Observer found that 97% of GCSE results will be allocated solely by Ofqual’s algorithm rather than teacher-assessed grades submitted by schools and colleges. Teacher rankings of pupils will be used to distribute grades within each school."

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Also from the Guardian:

A-levels row: Oxford college to honour all offers despite results: Worcester College move comes as thousands of Oxbridge alumni call on others to follow suit.  by Aaron Walawalkar

"An Oxford college said it will accept all students with offers regardless of their A-level results, as thousands of Oxbridge alumni call on others to show equal “kindness and generosity” to downgraded pupils.

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"It comes after Oxbridge applicants who received lower grades than expected on Thursday were told they may have to wait a year before they can start degree courses after successfully appealing against their results.

"About 39% of A-level results were downgraded by the exam regulator Ofqual’s algorithm, with disadvantaged pupils worst affected.

"Ashe told BBC Radio 4: “For us, at a very simple level, it was clear to us before results came out that these students were not going to have sat exams and therefore we took the view that there wasn’t going to be any new information there that could justify rejecting someone to whom we’d made an offer."