Thursday, January 4, 2018

Some ASSA sessions I would go to if I could, and some I'll certainly attend

I'm going to be a busy boy at the AEA/ASSA meetings, since as president of the AEA I'll preside over many champagne receptions and a few other things.  But the conference looks like fun. Here are just a few of the sessions that particularly caught my eye, even though I have conflicts with some of them...

Econometric Society Presidential Address



Session/Event

 Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018   5:30 PM - 7:00 PM

 Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Liberty Ballroom
Hosted By: ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY
    Econometric Society Presidential Address
    Drew Fudenberg, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Speaker(s)
    Drew Fudenberg
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Topic: Learning, Experimentation, and Equilibrium Refinements
    ************

    Economic Applications of Machine Learning



    Paper Session

     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   8:00 AM - 10:00 AM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Liberty Ballroom Salon A
    Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: Daniel BjörkegrenBrown University

    A Large Scale Model of Travel Time and User Choice Behavior

    Susan Athey
    ,
    Stanford University
    Robert Donnelly
    ,
    Stanford University

    Behavior Revealed in Mobile Phone Usage Predicts Loan Repayment

    Daniel Björkegren
    ,
    Brown University
    Darrell Grissen
    ,
    Entrepreneurial Finance Lab

    Estimating Poverty and Wealth From Mobile Phone Data

    Joshua Blumenstock
    ,
    University of California-Berkeley
    Gabriel Cadamuro
    ,
    University of Washington
    Robert On
    ,
    University of California-Berkeley

    Forecasting Economic Activity With Yelp Data

    Edward Glaeser
    ,
    Harvard University
    Hyunjin Kim
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    Michael Luca
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    Discussant(s)
    Michael Luca
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    Marshall Burke
    ,
    Stanford University
    Greg Lewis
    ,
    Microsoft Research
    Shane Greenstein
    ,
    Harvard Business School
    ************

    Like Everybody Else: Experimental Economics of Conformity, Image, and Identity



    Paper Session

     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Meeting Room 305
    Hosted By: ECONOMIC SCIENCE ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: James AndreoniUniversity of California-San Diego

    Identity and Impact in Public Goods Contributions: A Field Experiment on Wikipedia

    Yan Chen
    ,
    University of Michigan
    Rosta Farzan
    ,
    University of Pittsburgh
    Robert Kraut
    ,
    Carnegie Mellon University
    Iman YeckehZarre
    ,
    University of Michigan
    Ark Fangzhou Zhang
    ,
    University of Michigan

    Status Goods: Experimental Evidence From Platinum Credit Cards

    Leonardo Bursztyn
    ,
    University of Chicago and NBER
    Bruno Ferman
    ,
    Getulio Vargas Foundation
    Stefano Fiorin
    ,
    University of California-San Diego
    Martin Kanz
    ,
    World Bank
    Gautam Rao
    ,
    Harvard University and NBER

    Preference Endogeneity and Conformity

    Douglas Bernheim
    ,
    Stanford University
    Christine Exley
    ,
    Harvard Business School

    The Conformity Trap: Adaptation and Stagnation of Social Norms in a Changing World

    James Andreoni
    ,
    University of California-San Diego
    Nikos Nikiforakis
    ,
    New York University Abu Dhabi
    Simon Siegenthaler
    ,
    University of Texas-Dallas
    Discussant(s)
    Alain Cohn
    ,
    University of Michigan
    Desmond Ang
    ,
    University of California-San Diego
    Florian Ederer
    ,
    Yale University
    Ariel Rubinstein
    ,
    New York University
    *********

    Large Matching Markets



    Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   8:00 AM - 10:00 AM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Meeting Room 406
    Hosted By: ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY
    • Chair: SangMok LeeUniversity of Pennsylvania

    The Cutoff Structure of Top Trading Cycles in School Choice

    Jacob D. Leshno
    ,
    Columbia University
    Irene Lo
    ,
    Columbia University

    Need Versus Merit: The Large Core of College Admissions Markets

    Avinatan Hassidim
    ,
    Bar-Ilan University
    Assaf Romm
    ,
    Hebrew University of Jerusalem
    Ran I. Shorrer
    ,
    Pennsylvania State University

    Top Trading Cycles in Two-Sided Matching Markets: An Irrelevance of Priorities in Large Matching Markets

    Yeon-Koo Che
    ,
    Columbia University
    Olivier Tercieux
    ,
    Paris School of Economics
    Discussant(s)
    Eduardo Azevedo
    ,
    University of Pennsylvania
    Utku Unver
    ,
    Boston College
    Scott Duke Kominers
    ,
    Harvard University
    Atila Abdulkadiroglu
    ,
    Duke University
    *************

    Inner Workings of Organ Markets and Organ Allocation


    Paper Session

     Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

     Pennsylvania Convention Center, 201-C
    Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: Eric BudishUniversity of Chicago

    The Inner Workings of Kidney Exchange Markets

    Nikhil Agarwal
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Itai Ashlagi
    ,
    Stanford University
    Eduardo Azevedo
    ,
    University of Pennsylvania
    Clayton Featherstone
    ,
    University of Pennsylvania
    Omer Karaduman
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    A Regulated Market for Kidneys

    Mohammad Akbarpour
    ,
    Stanford University

    Strategic Behavior in the Kidney Waitlist

    Nikhil Agarwal
    ,
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Itai Ashlagi
    ,
    Stanford University
    Paulo J. Somaini
    ,
    Stanford University
    Discussant(s)
    Utku Unver
    ,
    Boston College
    Glen Weyl
    ,
    Microsoft Research
    Benjamin R. Handel
    ,
    University of California-Berkeley
    ******

    Here are some sessions I'm looking forward to attending ex officio:


    AEA/AFA Joint Luncheon - Fee Event


     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   12:30 PM - 2:15 PM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
    Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION & AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION
    • Chair: David ScharfsteinHarvard Business School
    Presiding: David Scharfstein, Harvard Business School
    Speaker: Raghuram Rajan, University of Chicago
    Speaker(s)
    Raghuram Rajan
    ,
    University of Chicago
    Topic: Liquidity and Leverage
    ************

    Session/Event

     Friday, Jan. 5, 2018   4:45 PM - 5:45 PM

     Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
    Hosted By: American Economic Association
      Speaker: David Laibson, Harvard University
        *************


        AEA Nobel Laureate Luncheon-Fee Event

        Session/Event

         Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   12:30 PM - 2:15 PM

         Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
        Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
        • Chair: Olivier BlanchardPeterson Institute for International Economics
        Nobel Laureate Luncheon Honoring the 2016 Nobel Laureates in Economics: Oliver Hart, Harvard University and Bengt R. Holmstrom, Massachusetts Institute of Technology--Fee Event--
        Presiding: Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics--
        Speakers: Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago
        **********

        AEA Awards Ceremony and Presidential Address

        Session/Event

         Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018   4:30 PM - 5:45 PM

         Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon G & H
        Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
        • Chair: Olivier BlanchardPeterson Institute for International Economics
        Awards Ceremony & Presidential Address
        Presiding: Olivier Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics
        Speaker: Alvin E. Roth, Stanford University
        Topic: Markets and Marketplaces
        ****************

        New Insights on Classic Questions in Matching Theory

        Paper Session

         Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018   10:15 AM - 12:15 PM

         Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Liberty Ballroom Salon A
        Hosted By: AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
        • Chair: Alvin E. RothStanford University

        Deferred Acceptance with Compensation Chains

        Piotr Dworczak
        ,
        Stanford University

        Virtual Demand and Stable Mechanisms

        Jan Christoph Schlegel
        ,
        University of Lausanne

        Lone Wolves in Competitive Equilibria

        Ravi Jagadeesan
        ,
        Harvard University
        Scott Duke Kominers
        ,
        Harvard University
        Ross Rheingans-Yoo
        ,
        Harvard University
        Discussant(s)
        Alexander Teytelboym
        ,
        University of Oxford




    Wednesday, January 3, 2018

    Change in Swedish law about sexual assault

    From The Guardian:
    Swedish rape law would require explicit consent before sexual contact

    "Sweden is moving closer to making changes to its rape laws that would require people to get explicit consent before sexual contact.
    ...
    "Under current Swedish law someone can be prosecuted for rape only if it has been proved that they used threats or violence. Under the proposal, rape could be proved if the accuser hadn’t given their explicit verbal agreement or clearly demonstrate their desire to engage in sexual activity.
    ...
    "The proposal is part of a series of initiatives being put forward. Others would make it illegal for Swedes to hire prostitutes abroad, and increase sentences for offenders. Buying sex in Sweden is already illegal."

    Tuesday, January 2, 2018

    Opioids and harm reduction: drug checking and Safe Injection Facilities

    From Mason Marks writing on the Bill of Health blog at Harvard Law School:


    The Opioid Crisis Requires Evidence-Based Solutions, Part III: How the President’s Commission on Combating Drug Addiction Dismissed Harm Reduction Strategies

    " it is noteworthy that the Commission ignored harm reduction strategies such as drug checking, which could reduce deaths due to consumption of contaminated opioids. Many countries including Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, and the Netherlands offer free and confidential drug checking (also known as pill testing) to drug users. Drug checking could reduce consumption of adulterated drugs and provides opportunities to support and counsel users who may otherwise receive no contact with medical or public health professionals. Drug checking is also a valuable source of information about drug use such as pricing, availability, effects, and composition of street drugs. This information can be used to further our understanding of drug use and its effects.
    Some experts argue that drug dealers will be less likely to add dangerous adulterants to their products if they know that consumers have a mechanism to test their contents. The identification of drug contents can alert authorities to the presence of synthetic opioids, which can lead to public warnings and announcements that may further drive dealers to withdraw deadly additives from the market. The practice can also improve law enforcement efforts to reduce the illegal importation and sale of synthetic opioids. Dr. Carl Hart, Chair of the Department of Psychology at Columbia University, supports the use of free and anonymous drug checking in the United States. In a Scientific American article, heargues that the opioid crisis is a distinctly American problem. According to Hart, “Throughout Europe and other regions where opioids are readily available, people are not dying at comparable rates as those in the U.S., largely because addiction is not treated as a crime but as a public health problem.” Drug checking is one example of how European countries approach drug abuse from a public health angle rather than a punitive law enforcement perspective.
    Critics of drug checking argue that it could normalize drug use or “send the wrong message” to potential users. For instance, the practice could create the appearance of safety when in fact the drugs being consumed are dangerous. ...
    "Supervised injection facilities (SIFs), arguably a more controversial option than drug checking, were also ignored by the President’s Opioid Commission. SIFs provide a place for people to inject drugs under professional supervision to minimize the risk of HIV and hepatitis C infection, drug overdose, and death. They are primarily used in Switzerland, Canada, and Australia. However, the City of Denver is taking steps to become the first U.S. city to offer SIFs. In November, a plan for a pilot program won unanimous approval from a bipartisan ten-member legislative committee. However, the City’s General Assembly must approve the plan in January 2018 for it to move forward. Seattle and San Francisco are considering similar proposals. The State of Vermont is also considering using SIFs. On November 29, 2017, a commission of health and law enforcement professionals, led by State’s Attorney General Sarah George, recommended that Vermont make SIFs a part of its opioid strategy. However, the Vermont Commissioner of Public Safety and the Vermont Association of Police Chiefs disagree. The Commissioner stated, “Facilitating the ongoing use of heroin through SIFs sends the wrong message, at the wrong time, to the wrong people.”
    ...
    "A 2014 review published in the journal Drug and Alcohol Dependence, examined the outcome of 75 studies and concluded that SIFs are an effective harm-reduction strategy not associated with increased drug use or crime. In early 2017, the Massachusetts Medical Society published its analysis of SIFs. It found that peer-reviewed research published in leading academic journals, such as JAMA and the New England Journal of Medicine, supports the conclusion that SIFs produce positive outcomes such as reduced mortality and increased access to drug treatment.
    ...
    "Admittedly, there could be an “ick factor” associated with SIFs, and overly zealous drug control advocates could find them repugnant. However, when thousands of lives are at stake, emotional reactions to SIFs must be weighed against the scientific evidence. If the evidence suggests that SIFs are effective, then lawmakers must be courageous and allow their decisions to be guided by science rather than emotions such as disgust."

    Monday, January 1, 2018

    Is there an equivalence between (not) paying kidney donors and boxers or football players?

    Kim Krawiecz makes a point, in several installments:

    December 21, 2017
    If You Oppose Paying Kidney Donors, You Should Oppose Paying Football Players And Boxers Too 
    "Having concluded that simply advocating for compensated kidney donation was not sufficiently controversial, Phil Cook and I are now turning our sights on professional sports – specifically, professional football and boxing. In a piece just posted to SSRN, we contrast the compensation ban on organ donation with the legal treatment of football, boxing, and other violent sports in which both acute and chronic injuries to participants are common. While there is some debate about how best to regulate these sports in order to reduce the risks, there appears to be no serious debate about whether participants should be paid. Indeed, for the best adult football players, college scholarships and perhaps a professional contract worth multiple millions are possible."


    December 22, 2017
    Paying Kidney Donors, Football Players, And Boxers: Medical Risks
    "the medical risks to a professional career in football, boxing, and other violent sports are much greater both in the near and long term than the risks of donating a kidney. Injuries in such sports are common, and retired players are very often disabled by the long-term effects of these injuries as well the cumulative effect of thousands of blows to the body."

    December 24, 2017
    Paying Kidney Donors, Football Players, And Boxers: Informed Consent And It’s Limits
    "We believe that if NOTA were amended to allow payments to donors, potential kidney donors could be protected against being unduly tempted through the existing structure of screening, counseling, and delay, perhaps with some additional protections to prevent hasty decisions. On the other hand, it is not clear that NFL recruits have such protections in place.

    "Whether and when sane, sober, well-informed, adults should be banned by government authority from choosing to engage in an activity that risks their own life and limb is an ancient point of contention. There are a variety of hazardous activities that are permitted with no legal bar to receiving compensation. Included on this list are such occupations as logging, roofing, commercial fishing, and military service. Also included are violent sports such as football, boxing, and mixed martial arts (MMA). These examples illustrate a broad endorsement of the principle that consenting adults should be allowed to exchange (in a probabilistic sense) their physical health and safety for financial compensation, even in some instances where the ultimate product is simply providing a public entertainment.
    ...
    "In short, to the extent that the ban on compensated kidney donation is grounded in a concern that the lure of money may cause donors to disregard the risks of the procedure and subsequent long-term effects, that concern applies with even more force to participation in violent sport.

    "This, of course, is just a taste of our analysis and evidence, so read the full paper* for more."

    *If We Allow Football Players and Boxers to Be Paid for Entertaining the Public, Why Don't We Allow Kidney Donors to Be Paid for Saving Lives?
    Law and Contemporary Problems, Vol. 81, No. 3, 2018
    and by Philip J. Cook Kimberly D. Krawiec

    December 25, 2017
    Paying Kidney Donors, Football Players, And Boxers: Exploitation, Race, Class

    "We believe that using words like “coercion” and “exploitation” to characterize the introduction of a new option by which poor people (and others) could earn a substantial amount of money provides more heat than light on this situation. The legitimate ethical concern is that so many Americans are poor, with inequality increasing over time. But that observation does not support a ban on compensation, which in fact limits the options available to the poor and thereby makes a bad situation (their lack of marketable assets) worse. But for anyone not persuaded by this argument, we note that these social-justice concerns apply with at least equal force to compensating boxers; most American professional boxers were raised in lower-income neighborhoods, and are either black or Hispanic.
    ...
    "As more has become known about the dangers of the repeated head trauma, similar arguments regarding football have become more prominent. About 70% of NFL players are black, and Pacific Islanders are also overrepresented as compared to the American population. Accordingly, much attention has been paid to the concussion crisis as a race and class problem. As one observer recently noted, “What’s a little permanent brain damage when you’re facing a life of debilitating poverty?” In reality, NFL players are better educated themselves, and come from better educated homes, than is average for Americans, in part because the NFL typically recruits college students. Still, some NFL players, like some would-be kidney donors, come from poverty."


    December 26, 2017
    If You Oppose Paying Kidney Donors, You Should Oppose Paying Football Players And Boxers Too: Wrap-Up

    "In this series of posts, I’ve discussed a new draft that Phil Cook and I are circulating, If We Allow Football Players and Boxers to Be Paid for Entertaining the Public, Why Don't We Allow Kidney Donors to Be Paid for Saving Lives?. Our claim, which I laid out in my first post, is that there is a stronger case for compensating kidney donors than for compensating participants in violent sports. If this proposition is accepted, one implication is that there are only three logically consistent positions: allow compensation for both kidney donation and for violent sports; allow compensation for kidney donation but not for violent sports; or allow compensation for neither. Our current law and practice is perverse in endorsing a fourth regime, allowing compensation for violent sports but not kidney donation.
    A common argument in support of the ban on kidney donation is that if people were offered the temptation of substantial compensation, some would volunteer to donate against their own “true” best interests. This argument is often coupled with a social justice concern, namely that if kidney donors were paid, a large percentage of volunteers would be poor and financially stressed, and for them the offer of a substantial financial inducement would be coercive. In sum, a system of compensated donation would provide an undue temptation, and end up exploiting the poor.
    To these arguments we offer both a direct response, and a response by analogy with violent sport. My posts have touched on a few key points. First, the medical risks to a professional career in football, boxing, and other violent sports are much greater both in the near and long term than the risks of donating a kidney. On the other hand, the consent and screening process in professional sports is not as developed as in kidney donation. The social justice concerns stem from the fact that most players are black and some come from impoverished backgrounds."

    The post goes on to point out that the (life savings) benefits to kidney patients from kidney donation are huge, and it's hard to argue that they are less deserving or get less benefit than sports spectators. But you get the idea...